Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Social structures, genetic structures and dispersal strategies in Australian rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations

In this study, the pattern of movement of young male and female rabbits and the genetic structures present in adult male and female populations in four habitats was examined. The level of philopatry in young animals was found to vary between 18-90% for males and 32-95% for females in different populations. It was skewed, with more males dispersing than females in some but not all populations. Analysis of allozyme data using spatial autocorrelation showed that adult females from the same social group, unlike males, were significantly related in four of the five populations studied. Changes in genetic structure and rate of dispersal were measured before and during the recovery of a population that was artificially reduced in size. There were changes in the rate and distance of dispersal with density and sex. Subadults of both sexes moved further in the first year post crash (low density) than in the following years. While the level of dispersal for females was lower than that of the males for the first 3 years, thereafter (high density) both sexes showed similar, low levels of dispersal (20%). The density at which young animals switch behaviour between dispersal and philopatry differed for males and females. The level of genetic structuring in adult females was high in the precrash population, reduced in the first year post crash and undetectable in the second year. Dispersal behaviour of rabbits both affects the genetic structure of the population and changes with conditions. Over a wide range of levels of philopatry, genetic structuring is present in the adult female, but not the male population. Consequently, though genetic structuring is present, it does not lead to inbreeding. More long-distance movements are found in low-density populations, even though vacant warrens are available near birth warrens. The distances moved decreased as density increased. Calculation of the effective population size (N-e) shows that changes in dispersal distance offset changes in density, so that N-e remains constant.

A comparison of social structures in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo

This article presents the results of a comparative study on socio-spatial structures in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo in 2000. We drew on data from the national Demographic Census by weighted areas to construct the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarrero (EGP) classification and the International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI), both widely used in social stratification studies. This information was then submitted to group analyses for the two cities, allowing comparison of the presence of social groups in each city. Next, using spatial statistics, we assessed the spatial distribution of the socio-economic classes and the presence of social segregation in the two metropolitan areas. The results suggest the presence of strong similarity between the social structures in the two cities, also marked by similarly intense patterns of social segregation at the metropolitan level.

Cardiac troponin T as a biochemical marker of cardiac dysfunction and ductus venosus Doppler velocimetry

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between ductus venosus (DV) Doppler velocimetry and fetal cardiac troponin T (cTnT). Study design: Between March 2007 and March 2008, 89 high-risk pregnancies were prospectively studied. All patients delivered by cesarean section and the Doppler exams were performed on the same day. Multiple regression included the following variables: maternial age, parity, hypertension, diabetes, gestational age at delivery, umbilical artery (UA) S/D ratio, diagnosis of absent or reversed end-diastolic flow velocity (AREDV) in the UA, middle cerebral artery (MCA) pulsatility index (131), and DV pulsatility index for veins (PIV). Immediately after delivery, UA blood samples were obtained for the measurement of pH and cTnT levels. Statistical analysis included the Kruskal-Wallis test and multiple regressions. Results: The results showed a cTnT concentration at birth >0.05 ng/ml in nine (81.8%) of AREDV cases, a proportion significantly higher than that observed in normal UA S/D ratio and UA S/D ratio >p95 with positive diastolic blood flow (7.7 and 23.1%, respectively, p < 0.001). A positive correlation Was found between abnormal DV-PIV and elevated cTnT levels in the UA. Multiple regression identified DV-PIV and a diagnosis of AREDV as independent factors associated with abnormal fetal cTnT levels (p < 0.0001, F(2.86) = 63.5, R = 0.7722). Conclusion: DV-PIV was significantly correlated with fetal cTnT concentrations at delivery. AREDV and abnormal DV flow represent severe cardiac compromise, with increased systemic venous pressure, and a rise in right ventricular afterload, demonstrated by myocardial damage and elevated fetal cTnT. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Comparison Between Pulse Pressure Variation and Right End Diastolic Volume Index as Guides to Resuscitation in a Model of Hemorrhagic Shock in Pigs

Background: Different hemodynamic parameters including static indicators of cardiac preload as right ventricular end-diastolic volume index (RVEDVI) and dynamic parameters as pulse pressure variation (PPV) have been used in the decision-making process regarding volume expansion in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to compare fluid resuscitation guided by either PPV or RVEDVI after experimentally induced hemorrhagic shock. Methods: Twenty-six anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were allocated into control (group I), PPV (group II), or RVEDVI (group III) group. Hemorrhagic shock was induced by blood withdrawal to target mean arterial pressure of 40 mm Hg, maintained for 60 minutes. Parameters were measured at baseline, time of shock, 60 minutes after shock, immediately after resuscitation with hydroxyethyl starch 6% (130/0.4), 1 hour and 2 hours thereafter. The endpoint of fluid resuscitation was determined as the baseline values of PPV and RVEDVI. Statistical analysis of data was based on analysis of variance for repeated measures followed by the Bonferroni test (p < 0.05). Results: Volume and time to resuscitation were higher in group III than in group II (group III = 1,305 +/- 331 mL and group II = 965 +/- 245 mL, p < 0.05; and group III = 24.8 +/- 4.7 minutes and group II = 8.8 +/- 1.3 minutes, p < 0.05, respectively). All static and dynamic parameters and biomarkers of tissue oxygenation were affected by hemorrhagic shock and nearly all parameters were restored after resuscitation in both groups. Conclusion: In the proposed model of hemorrhagic shock, resuscitation to the established endpoints was achieved within a smaller amount of time and with less volume when guided by PPV than when guided by pulmonary artery catheter-derived RVEDVI.

Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor added to a sciatic nerve fragment grafted in a spinal cord gap ameliorates motor impairments in rats and increases local axonal growth

Purpose: The aversive nature of regenerative milieu is the main problem related to the failure of neuronal restoration in the injured spinal cord which however might be addressed with an adequate repair intervention. We evaluated whether glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) may increase the ability of sciatic nerve graft, placed in a gap promoted by complete transections of the spinal cord, to enhance motor recovery and local fiber growth. Methods: Rats received a 4 mm-long gap at low thoracic level and were repaired with a fragment of the sciatic nerve. GDNF was added (NERVE+GDNF) or not to the grafts (NERVE-GDNF). Motor behavior score (BBB) and sensorimotor tests-linked to the combined behavior score (CBS), which indicate the degree of the motor improvement and the percentage of functional deficit, respectively, and also the spontaneous motor behavior in an open field by means of an infrared motion sensor activity monitor were analyzed. At the end of the third month post surgery, the tissue composed by the graft and the adjacent regions of the spinal cord was removed and submitted to the immunohistochemistry of the neurofilament-200 (NF-200), growth associated protein-43 (GAP-43), microtubule associated protein-2 (MAP-2), 5-hidroxytryptamine (serotonin, 5-HT) and calcitonin gene related peptide (CGRP). The immunoreactive fibers were quantified at the epicenter of the graft by means of stereological procedures. Results: Higher BBB and lower CBS levels (p < 0.001) were found in NERVE+GDNF rats. GDNF added to the graft increased the levels of individual sensorimotor tests mainly at the third month. Analysis of the spontaneous motor behavior showed decreases in the time and number of small movement events by the third month without changes in time and number of large movement events in the NERVE+GDNF rats. Immunoreactive fibers were encountered inside the grafts and higher amounts of NF-200, GAP-43 and MAP-2 fibers were found in the epicenter of the graft when GDNF was added. A small amount of descending 5-HT fibers was seen reentering in the adjacent caudal levels of the spinal cords which were grafted in the presence of GDNF, event that has not occurred without the neurotrophic factor. GDNF in the graft also led to a large amount of MAP-2 perikarya and fibers in the caudal levels of the cord gray matter, as determined by the microdensitometric image analysis. Conclusions: GDNF added to the nerve graft favored the motor recovery, local neuronal fiber growth and neuroplasticity in the adjacent spinal cord.

Maternal alcohol consumption may influence cord blood ascorbic acid concentration: findings from a study of Brazilian mothers and their newborns

Studies that have investigated ascorbic acid (AA) concentrations in cord blood have pointed to significant associations with maternal blood AA concentrations. smoking, age, diet, type of delivery, duration of gestation, fetal distress and birth weight. The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between cord blood AA concentrations in newborns and maternal characteristics. A total of 117 Brazilian healthy parturients were included in this cross-sectional study. The concentrations of AA in blood were determined by the HPLC method. Data concerning socio-economic, demographic, obstetric, nutritional and health characteristics of the parturients, including alcohol consumption and smoking habit, were assessed by a standardised questionnaire. A FFQ was used to investigate the intake of foods rich in vitamin C. Cord blood AA concentration was significantly correlated with per capita income (r 0.26; P=0.005), maternal blood AA concentration (r 0.48; P<0.001) and maternal vitamin C-rich food intake score (r 0.36; P<0.001). The linear regression model including maternal AA concentration, alcohol consumption, smoking, parity, vitamin C-rich food intake score and per capita income explained 31.13% of the variation in cord blood AA concentrations in newborns. We recommend further experimental studies to assess the effects of ethanol on placental AA uptake, and epidemiological cohort studies to evaluate in detail the influence of maternal alcohol consumption on cord blood AA concentrations.

Prevalence of Insulin Resistance and Related Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Essential Hypertension

BACKGROUND There is evidence that the subgroup of patients with essential hypertension who are also insulin resistant is at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We are unaware of the frequency of insulin resistance in patients with essential hypertension as well as the CVD risk in this subgroup of patients. This analysis was aimed at providing the prevalence of insulin resistance and associated CVD risk factors in treated and untreated patients with essential hypertension. METHODS The study population consisted of 126 patients with hypertension: 56 untreated and 70 in a stable treatment program. Body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, plasma glucose and insulin responses to an oral glucose challenge, lipid and lipoprotein concentrations, and steady-state plasma glucose (SSPG) concentration during the insulin suppression test were measured. Insulin resistance was defined operationally as a SSPG concentration >180 mg/dl. RESULTS Demographic characteristics and metabolic CVD risk factors were comparable in both groups, with 30-50% of both treated and untreated patients having abnormalities of all risk factors measured. Approximately 50% of patients met the criteria for insulin resistance in both groups, and the prevalence of abnormal CVD risk factors in this group was increased two to threefold as compared to the other half of the subjects. CONCLUSIONS Approximately 50% of patients with essential hypertension, both treated and untreated, appear to be insulin resistant, and CVD risk factors are greatly accentuated in this subset of patients.

Antimicrobial and Cytotoxic Activity of Fruit Extract from Syzygium cumini (L.) Skeels

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the antimicrobial and cytotoxic activity of the ethanolic extract of S. cumini according to the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute reference method (with modifications), determining the minimal inhibitory and lethal concentration. Activity against Gram-positive (Staphylococcus aureus and S. epidermidis), Gram-negative (Pseudomonas aeruginosa) and yeast of Candida sp and Cryptococcus neoformans was evaluated. The effects of the fruit extract were examined in hamster cells ovaries in concentrations ranging from 1250.0 a 4.9 mu g/ml, measuring the reduction of the tetrazolium salt 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-5-(3-carboxymethoxyphenyl)-2-(4-sulphophenyl)-2H-tetrazolium. The extract showed both bactericidal and fungicidal activity among the various microorganisms tested and the MIC ranging from 7.8 to 250 mu g/ml. The MIC, MBC and MFC should values that were similar for all the microorganisms. Cytotoxicity index of the dried extract corresponded to the concentration of 400 mu g/ml. The extract could potentially be used in topical antimicrobial products. Thus, the activity of extract was potent to bacteria and mainly to non-albicans species and C. neoformans.

Environmental and Individual Factors Associated with Nail Fluoride Concentration

Nails have been suggested as suitable biomarkers of exposure to F, with the advantage of being easily obtained. The effect of water F concentration, age, gender, nail growth rate and geographical area on the F concentration in the fingernail and toenail clippings were evaluated. Volunteers (n = 300) aged 3-7, 14-20, 30-40 and 50-60 years from five Brazilian communities (A-E) participated. Drinking water and nail samples were collected and F concentration was analyzed with the electrode. A reference mark was made on each nail and growth rates were calculated. Data were analyzed by ANOVA and linear regression (alpha = 0.05). Mean water F concentrations (8 SE, mg/l) were 0.09 +/- 0.01, 0.15 +/- 0.01, 0.66 +/- 0.01, 0.72 +/- 0.02, and 1.68 +/- 0.08 for A-E, respectively. Mean F concentrations (+/- SE, mg/kg) ranged between 1.38 +/- 0.14 (A, 50-60 years) and 10.20 +/- 2.35 (D, 50-60 years) for fingernails, and between 0.92 +/- 0.08 (A, 14-20 years) and 7.35 +/- 0.80 (E, 50-60 years) for toenails. Among the tested factors, geographical area and water F concentration exerted the most influence on finger- and toenail F concentrations. Subjects of older age groups (30-40 and 50-60 years) from D and E showed higher nail F concentrations than the others. Females presented higher nail F concentration than males. Water F concentration, age, gender and geographical area influenced the F concentration of finger- and toenails, and hence should be taken into account when using this biomarker of exposure to predict risk for dental fluorosis. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Genotype-by-management interactions for grain yield and grain protein concentration of wheat

The magnitude of genotype-by-management (G x M) interactions for grain yield and grain protein concentration was examined in a multi-environment trial (MET) involving a diverse set of 272 advanced breeding lines from the Queensland wheat breeding program. The MET was structured as a series of management-regimes imposed at 3 sites for 2 years. The management-regimes were generated at each site-year as separate trials in which planting time, N fertiliser application rate, cropping history, and irrigation were manipulated. irrigation was used to simulate different rainfall regimes. From the combined analysis of variance, the G x M interaction variance components were found to be the largest source of G x E interaction variation for both grain yield (0.117 +/- 0.005 t(2) ha(-2); 49% of total G x E 0.238 +/- 0.028 t(2) ha(-2)) and grain protein concentration (0.445 +/- 0.020%(2); 82% of total G x E 0.546 +/- 0.057%(2)), and in both cases this source of variation was larger than the genotypic variance component (grain yield 0.068 +/- 0.014 t(2) ha(-2) and grain protein 0.203 +/- 0.026%(2)). The genotypic correlation between the traits varied considerably with management-regime, ranging from -0.98 to -0.31, with an estimate of 0.0 for one trial. Pattern analysis identified advanced breeding lines with improved grain yield and grain protein concentration relative to the cultivars Hartog, Sunco and Meteor. It is likely that a large component of the previously documented G x E interactions for grain yield of wheat in the northern grains region are in part a result of G x M interactions. The implications of the strong influence of G x M interactions for the conduct of wheat breeding METs in the northern region are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

Genetics of Serum Dehydroepiandrosterone Sulfate and Its Relationship to Insulin in a Population-Based Cohort of Twin Subjects

Previous studies have shown a significant effect of insulin administration on serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S) concentration and its metabolic rate, with evidence for the effect in men, but not in women. This could lead to differences in the sources of variation in serum DHEA-S between men and women and in its covariation with insulin concentration. This study aimed to test whether these hypotheses were supported in a sample of healthy adult twins. Serum DHEA-S (n=2287) and plasma insulin (n=2436) were measured in samples from adult male and female twins recruited through the Australian Twin Registry. Models of genetic and environmental sources of variation and covariation were tested against the data. DHEA-S showed substantial genetic effects in both men and women after adjustment for covariates, including sex, age, body mass index, and time since the last meal. There was no significant phenotypic or genetic correlation between DHEA-S and insulin in either men or women. Despite the experimental evidence for insulin infusion producing a reduction in serum DHEA-S and some effect of meals on the observed DHEA-S concentration, there were no associations between insulin and DHEA-S at the population level. Variations in DHEA-S are due to age, sex, obesity, and substantial polygenic genetic influences.

Body mass index-related human adipocyte agouti expression is sex-specific but not depot-specific

Objective: To determine if human adipocyte agouti signal protein (ASIP) mRNA expression is associated with obesity and is gender and/or depot specific. Research Methods and Procedures: Subjects included 8 men (64 +/- 3 years) and 14 women (56 +/- 15 years) undergoing elective abdominal surgery. ASIP mRNA levels in isolated omental and subcutaneous abdominal adipocytes were measured by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Results: No significant depot difference was observed between genders; ASIP mRNA levels of omental and subcutaneous abdominal adipocytes were pooled for this analysis. BMI and ASIP gene expression were negatively correlated in men (p = -0.70; p < 0.05), whereas a positive relationship was observed in women (p = 0.48; p < 0.05). No significant difference was observed in age, body weight, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference between groups. Hip circumference was significantly higher in women than in men (p < 0.05). Also, no significant difference in ASIP mRNA expression was observed between men and women, regardless of the fat depot. Discussion: These results show that men and women of similar age and BMI present similar ASIP mRNA levels in omental and subcutaneous abdominal adipocytes. However, a sexual dimorphism exists in the relationship between ASIP expression and BMI. If ASIP is involved in appetite regulation or energy homeostasis in humans, this observation may contribute to the recognized differences in these parameters between men and women.

Concordance of iron indices in homozygote and heterozygote sibling pairs in hemochromatosis families: implications for family screening

Background/Aims: Concordance of iron indices between same sex siblings homozygous for the cysteine-to-tyrosine substitution at amino acid 282 (C282Y) mutation suggests that the variable phenotype in hereditary hemochromatosis is caused by genetic factors. Concordance of iron indices between same-sex heterozygous sibling pairs would provide further evidence of genetic modifiers of disease expression, and guidance for family screening strategies of subjects heterozygous for the C282Y mutation. Methods: We compared the iron indices of 35 C282Y homozygous and 35 C282Y heterozygous same-sex sibling pairs. To clarify whether concordance between siblings was due to environmental or genetic factors we compared the iron indices of 164 C282Y homozygous-normal, same-sex dizygotic twins. Results: Serum ferritin (r = 0.50, P = 0.003), hepatic iron concentration (r = 0.61, P = 0.025) and hepatic iron index (r = 0.67, P = 0.01) were highly concordant in C282Y homozygotes. Heterozygote siblings were concordant for serum ferritin (r = 0.76, P = 0.0001) and transferrin saturation (r = 0.79, P = 0.0001). Homozygote-normal same-sex dizygotic twins were concordant for serum ferritin (r = 0.62, P = 0.0001) but not for transferrin saturation. Conclusions: Concordance of iron indices exists in C282Y homozygote and heterozygote sibling pairs. Siblings of expressing C282Y heterozygotes require phenotypic assessment. These data provide evidence for modifying genes influencing disease expression in hemochromatosis. (C) 2002 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.