Detection and impacts of leakage from sub-seafloor deep geological carbon dioxide storage

Fossil fuel power generation and other industrial emissions of carbon dioxide are a threat to global climate1, yet many economies will remain reliant on these technologies for several decades2. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations provides an effective option to remove these emissions from the climate system3. In many regions storage reservoirs are located offshore4, 5, over a kilometre or more below societally important shelf seas6. Therefore, concerns about the possibility of leakage7, 8 and potential environmental impacts, along with economics, have contributed to delaying development of operational CCS. Here we investigate the detectability and environmental impact of leakage from a controlled sub-seabed release of CO2. We show that the biological impact and footprint of this small leak analogue (<1 tonne CO2 d−1) is confined to a few tens of metres. Migration of CO2 through the shallow seabed is influenced by near-surface sediment structure, and by dissolution and re-precipitation of calcium carbonate naturally present in sediments. Results reported here advance the understanding of environmental sensitivity to leakage and identify appropriate monitoring strategies for full-scale carbon storage operations.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Climate Change Adaptation for Conservation in Madagascar

Madagascar's imperilled biota are now experiencing the effects of a new threat—climate change (Raxworthy et al. 2008). With more than 90% endemism among plants, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, the stakes are high. The pristine landscapes that allowed this exceptional biodiversity to survive past climate changes are largely gone. Deforestation has claimed approximately 90% of the island's natural forest (Ingram & Dawson 2005; Harper et al. 2007) and what remains is highly fragmented, providing a poor template for large-scale species range shifts. The impacts of current and future climate change may therefore be much different than past impacts, with profound implications for biodiversity.
We review evidence of past response to climate change, models of future change and projected biological response, developing insights to formulate adaptation actions for reducing extinction in Madagascar's biota. We then explore the cost of implementing actions and examine new income opportunities developing through efforts to mitigate climate change.

Indicators of the impact of climate change on migratory species

The Bonn Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals adopted a Resolution in 2005 recognising the impacts of climate change on migratory species. It called on Contracting Parties to undertake more research to improve our understanding of these impacts and to implement adaptation measures to reduce foreseeable adverse effects. Given the large diversity of taxa and species affected by climate change, it is impossible to monitor all species and effects thereof. However, it is likely that many of the key ecological and physical processes through which climate change may impact wildlife could be monitored using a suite of indicators, each comprising parameters of species/populations or groups of species as proxies for wider assemblages, habitats and ecosystems. Herein, we identify a suite of 17 indicators whose attributes could reveal negative impacts of climate change on the global status of migratory species: 4 for birds, 4 for marine mammals, 2 for sea turtles, 1 for fish, 3 for land mammals and 3 for bats. A few of these indicators would be relatively straightforward to develop, but most would require additional data collation, and in many cases methodological development. Choosing and developing indicators of the impacts of climate change on migratory species is a challenge, particularly with endangered species, which are subject to many other pressures. To identify and implement conservation measures for these species, indicators must account for the full ensemble of pressures, and link to a system of alerts and triggers for action.

Ecological impacts of invasive alien species along temperature gradients: testing the role of environmental matching

Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause substantive ecological impacts, and the role of temperature in mediating these impacts may become increasingly significant in a changing climate. Habitat conditions and physiological optima offer predictive information for IAS impacts in novel environments. Here, using meta-analysis and laboratory experiments, we tested the hypothesis that the impacts of IAS in the field are inversely correlated with the difference in their ambient and optimal temperatures. A meta-analysis of 29 studies of consumptive impacts of IAS in inland waters revealed that the impacts of fishes and crustaceans are higher at temperatures that more closely match their thermal growth optima. In particular, the maximum impact potential was constrained by increased differences between ambient and optimal temperatures, as indicated by the steeper slope of a quantile regression on the upper 25th percentile of impact data compared to that of a weighted linear regression on all data with measured variances. We complemented this study with an experimental analysis of the functional response - the relationship between predation rate and prey supply - of two invasive predators (freshwater mysid shrimp, Hemimysis anomala and Mysis diluviana) across relevant temperature gradients; both of these species have previously been found to exert strong community-level impacts that are corroborated by their functional responses to different prey items. The functional response experiments showed that maximum feeding rates of H. anomala and M. diluviana have distinct peaks near their respective thermal optima. Although variation in impacts may be caused by numerous abiotic or biotic habitat characteristics, both our analyses point to temperature as a key mediator of IAS impact levels in inland waters and suggest that IAS management should prioritize habitats in the invaded range that more closely match the thermal optima of targeted invaders.

Linking watershed terrain and hydrology to soil chemical properties, microbial communities and impacts on soil organic C in a humid mid-latitude forested watershed

Understanding the response of humid mid-latitude forests to changes in precipitation, temperature, nutrient cycling, and disturbance is critical to improving our predictive understanding of changes in the surface-subsurface energy balance due to climate change. Mechanistic understanding of the effects of long-term and transient moisture conditions are needed to quantify
linkages between changing redox conditions, microbial activity, and soil mineral and nutrient interactions on C cycling and greenhouse gas releases. To illuminate relationships between the soil chemistry, microbial communities and organic C we established transects across hydraulic and topographic gradients in a small watershed with transient moisture conditions. Valley bottoms tend to be more frequently saturated than ridge tops and side slopes which generally are only saturated when shallow storm flow zones are active. Fifty shallow (~36”) soil cores were collected during timeframes representative of low CO2, soil winter conditions and high CO2, soil summer conditions. Cores were subdivided into 240 samples based on pedology and analyses of the geochemical (moisture content, metals, pH, Fe species, N, C, CEC, AEC) and microbial (16S rRNA gene
amplification with Illumina MiSeq sequencing) characteristics were conducted and correlated to watershed terrain and hydrology. To associate microbial metabolic activity with greenhouse gas emissions we installed 17 soil gas probes, collected gas samples for 16 months and analyzed them for CO2 and other fixed and greenhouse gasses. Parallel to the experimental efforts our data is being used to support hydrobiogeochemical process modeling by coupling the Community Land Model (CLM) with a subsurface process model (PFLOTRAN) to simulate processes and interactions from the molecular to watershed scales. Including above ground processes (biogeophysics, hydrology, and vegetation dynamics), CLM provides mechanistic water, energy, and organic matter inputs to the surface/subsurface models, in which coupled biogeochemical reaction
networks are used to improve the representation of below-ground processes. Preliminary results suggest that inclusion of above ground processes from CLM greatly improves the prediction of moisture response and water cycle at the watershed scale.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes

The high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.

Effects of climate and land management changes on conservation : of mediterranean cork oak woodlands and their bird communities

Tese de doutoramento (co-tutela), Biologia (Biologia da Conservação), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, 2014

Pollen Season and Climate: Is the Timing of Birch Pollen Release in the UK Approaching its Limit?

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995–2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of ‘sign-switching’ when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.

Impacts from aquaculture facilities on intertidal ecosystems using quadrant surveys and antibiotic tracers

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 444

Future Air Quality Related Health Effects in Europe and the Nordic Region—Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Demography and Building Stock

Future changes in population exposures to ambient air pollution are inherently linked with long-term trends in outdoor air quality, but also with changes in the building stock. Moreover, the burden of disease is further driven by the ageing of the European populations. This study aims to assess the impact of changes in climate, emissions, building stocks and population on air pollution related human health impacts across Europe in the future. Therefore an integrated assessment model combining atmospheric models and health impacts has been setup for projections of the future developments in air pollution related premature mortality. The focus is here on the regional scale impacts of exposure to surface ozone (O3), Secondary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA) and primary particulate matter (PPM).

Changing climate, changing decisions : understanding climate adaptation decision-making and the way science supports it

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Ambiente, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2015