Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Screening for physical activity in family practice - Evaluation of two brief assessment tools

Background: Physical activity (PA) is relevant to the prevention and management of many health conditions in family practice. There is a need for an efficient, reliable, and valid assessment tool to identify patients in need of PA interventions. Methods: Twenty-eight family physicians in three Australian cities assessed the PA of their adult patients during 2004 using either a two- (2Q) or three-question (3Q) assessment. This was administered again approximately 3 days later to evaluate test-retest reliability. Concurrent validity was evaluated by measuring agreement with the Active Australia Questionnaire, and criterion validity by comparison with 7-day Computer Science Applications, Inc. (CSA) accelerometer counts. Results: A total of 509 patients participated, with 428 (84%) completing a repeat assessment, and 415 (82%) accelerometer monitoring. The brief assessments had moderate test-retest reliability (2Q k = 58.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 47.2-68.8%; 3Q k = 55.6%, 95% CI = 43.8-67.4%); fair to moderate concurrent validity (2Q k = 46.7%, 95% CI = 35.657.9%; 3Q k = 38.7%, 95% CI = 26.4-51.1%); and poor to fair criterion validity (2Q k = 18.2%, 95% CI = 3.9-32.6%; 3Q k = 24.3%, 95% CI = 11.6-36.9%) for identifying patients as sufficiently active. A four-level scale of PA derived from the PA assessments was significantly correlated with accelerometer minutes (2Q rho = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.28-0.49; 3Q rho = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.18-0.43). Physicians reported that the assessments took I to 2 minutes to complete. Conclusions: Both PA assessments were feasible to use in family practice, and were suitable for identifying the least active patients. The 2Q assessment was preferred by clinicians and may be most appropriate for dissemination.

The value of a small microkernel for dreamy memory and the RAMpage memory hierarchy

This paper explores potential for the RAMpage memory hierarchy to use a microkernel with a small memory footprint, in a specialized cache-speed static RAM (tightly-coupled memory, TCM). Dreamy memory is DRAM kept in low-power mode, unless referenced. Simulations show that a small microkernel suits RAMpage well, in that it achieves significantly better speed and energy gains than a standard hierarchy from adding TCM. RAMpage, in its best 128KB L2 case, gained 11% speed using TCM, and reduced energy 14%. Equivalent conventional hierarchy gains were under 1%. While 1MB L2 was significantly faster against lower-energy cases for the smaller L2, the larger SRAM's energy does not justify the speed gain. Using a 128KB L2 cache in a conventional architecture resulted in a best-case overall run time of 2.58s, compared with the best dreamy mode run time (RAMpage without context switches on misses) of 3.34s, a speed penalty of 29%. Energy in the fastest 128KB L2 case was 2.18J vs. 1.50J, a reduction of 31%. The same RAMpage configuration without dreamy mode took 2.83s as simulated, and used 2.39J, an acceptable trade-off (penalty under 10%) for being able to switch easily to a lower-energy mode.

The Hierarchical Structure of the Firm: A Geometric Perspective

This paper incorporates hierarchical structure into the neoclassical theory of the firm. Firms are hierarchical in two respects: the organization of workers in production and the wage structure. The firm’s hierarchy is represented as the sector of a circle, where the radius represents the hierarchy’s height, the width of the sector represents the breadth of the hierarchy at a given height, and the angle of the sector represents span of control for any given supervisor. A perfectly competitive firm then chooses height and width, as well as capital inputs, in order to maximize profit. We analyze the short run and long run impact of changes in scale economies, input substitutability and input and output prices on the firm’s hierarchical structure. We find that the firm unambiguously becomes more hierarchical as the specialization of its workers increases or as its output price increases relative to input prices. The effect of changes in scale economies is contingent on the output price. The model also brings forth an analysis of wage inequality within the firm, which is found to be independent of technological considerations, and only depends on the firm’s wage schedule.

Characterization of tumour necrosis factor alpha release by human granulocytes in response to procainamide challenge

The role of human granulocytes in the promotion of procainamide (PA) toxicity in vitro has been studied and one of the agents responsible for DNA strand scission and cell death in human target cells has been characterized. Crude peripheral blood mononuclear cells (cPBMNs) isolated by density centrifugation, and the lymphocyte cell lines--CCRF-HSB2 and WIL-2NS--were exposed to PA, and DNA strand breaks were quantified by fluorescent analysis of DNA unwinding. Therapeutic plasma concentrations of PA (0-50 microM) caused dose-dependent cytotoxicity, determined by dye exclusion, and strand breaks in cPBMNs incubated for 3 and 1.5 hr at 37 degrees, respectively. Using 50 microM PA a five-fold increase in DNA strand breaks was observed after 1.5 hr, with significant induction of strand breaks also being observed for 10 and 25 microM concentrations. Toxicity was much reduced in lymphocyte cell lines (maximal killing = 3.0% at 50 microM PA compared with 13.2% in cPBMNs). A similar decrease in toxicity was observed where N-acetyl procainamide (NAPA) was substituted for PA (less than 50% of strand breaks at all concentrations). Further investigations showed that the presence of a contaminating granulocyte population in the cPBMN fraction was responsible for the induction of PA toxicity. Incubation of a highly enriched granulocyte population with PA for 1 hr prior to exposure to purified peripheral blood mononuclear cells (pPBMNs) led to the complete restoration of the toxic effects. The resulting cyto- and genotoxicity were not significantly different to levels observed in cPBMNs. Significantly, incubation of granulocytes with NAPA did not induce toxicity in target pPBMNs. Ultrafiltration of granulocyte supernatants led to the identification of two toxic fractions of < 3000 and > 30,000 Da. Temporal studies showed that the toxicity associated with the < 3000 Da fraction appeared during the first 10-15 min incubation with PA whereas the > 30,000 Da fraction did not display significant toxicity until the 40-60 min period. Further assessment of the nature of these agents indicated that the 30,000 Da fraction was a protein. SDS-PAGE analysis showed an inducible 17,800 Da species appearing in granulocyte supernatants after 40 min incubation with PA. Dot blot analysis indicated that tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha) was present in the > 30,000 Da fraction. Evidence that TNF alpha was the high-molecular weight species responsible for PA-induced toxicity was obtained from neutralization assays employing an anti-TNF alpha antibody.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Profitability of a sample of Portuguese bank branches and its decomposition into technical and allocative components

The efficiency literature, both using parametric and non-parametric methods, has been focusing mainly on cost efficiency analysis rather than on profit efficiency. In for-profit organisations, however, the measurement of profit efficiency and its decomposition into technical and allocative efficiency is particularly relevant. In this paper a newly developed method is used to measure profit efficiency and to identify the sources of any shortfall in profitability (technical and/or allocative inefficiency). The method is applied to a set of Portuguese bank branches first assuming long run and then a short run profit maximisation objective. In the long run most of the scope for profit improvement of bank branches is by becoming more allocatively efficient. In the short run most of profit gain can be realised through higher technical efficiency. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Batch and continuous fermentation methods for the production of dextransucrase

The available literature concerning dextransucrase and dextran production and purification has been reviewed along with the reaction mechanisms of the enzyme. A discussion of basic fermentation theory is included, together with a brief description of bioreactor hydrodynamics and general biotechnology. The various fermenters used in this research work are described in detail, along with the various experimental techniques employed. The micro-organism Leuconostoc mesenteroides NRRL B512 (F) secretes dextransucrase in the presence of an inducer, sucrose, this being the only known inducer of the enzyme. Dextransucrase is a growth related product and a series of fed-batch fermentations have been carried out to extend the exponential growth phase of the organism. These experiments were carried out in a number of different sized vessels, ranging in size from 2.5 to 1,000 litres. Using a 16 litre vessel, dextransucrase activities in excess of 450 DSU/cm3 (21.67 U/cm3) have been obtained under non-aerated conditions. It has also been possible to achieve 442 DSU/cm3 (21.28 U/cm3) using the 1,000 litre vessel, although this has not been done consistently. A 1 litre and a 2.5 litre vessel were used for the continuous fermentations of dextransucrase. The 2.5 litre vessel was a very sophisticated MBR MiniBioreactor and was used for the majority of continuous fermentations carried out. An enzyme activity of approximately 108 DSU/cm3 (5.20 U/cm3) was achieved at a dilution rate of 0.50 h-1, which corresponds to the maximum growth rate of the cells under the process conditions. A number of continuous fermentations were operated for prolonged periods of time, with experimental run-times of up to 389 h being recorded without any incidence of contamination. The phenomenon of enzyme enhancement on hold-up of up to 100% was also noted during these fermentations, with dextransucrase of activity 89.7 DSU/cm3 (4.32 U/cm3) being boosted to 155.7 DSU/cm3 (7.50 U/cm3) following 24 hours of hold-up. These findings support the recommendation of a second reactor being placed in series with the existing vessel.

Impact of peanut allergy on quality of life, stress and anxiety in the family

Background: Peanut allergy (PA) is known to impact on quality of life (QoL) of the sufferer, but little research has focused on all family members. We therefore sought to establish the impact of PA on QoL and reported anxiety of children with clinically confirmed PA, their parents and older siblings. Methods: Forty-six families, who had a child with PA, completed QoL (PedsQLTM or WHOQOL-BREF), anxiety (SCAS or STAI) and perceived stress (PSS) scales. PA children completed a PA specific QoL questionnaire (Pediatr Allergy Immunol 2003;14:378). Parents and sibling also completed QoL proxy questionnaires for the PA child (PedsQLTM, Pediatr Allergy Immunol 2003;14:378). Results: Mothers rated their own psychological (P < 0.01) and physical (P < 0.05) QoL significantly worse than fathers rated theirs, and had higher scores than fathers for anxiety (P < 0.05) and stress (P < 0.001). Children with PA had significantly poorer physical health-related QoL (P < 0.05), QoL within school (P < 0.01) and general QoL (P < 0.05) than their siblings did, and greater separation anxiety (P < 0.05). The majority of differences were between girls with PA and female siblings. Mothers felt that there was a greater impact on QoL for their PA child, compared with that reported by siblings, fathers or the PA children themselves (P < 0.01). Conclusions: Mothers report that they have significantly poorer QoL and suffer more anxiety and stress than fathers do; this inter-parental difference may be an important feature of family stress caused by PA. Siblings have a similar view of how QoL affects the PA child as the PA child does, while mothers may possibly overestimate this impact.

IT as enabler of sustainable farming:an empirical analysis of farmers' adoption decision of precision agriculture technology

Precision agriculture (PA) describes a suite of IT based tools which allow farmers to electronically monitor soil and crop conditions and analyze treatment options. This study tests a model explaining the difficulties of PA technology adoption. The model draws on theories of technology acceptance and diffusion of innovation and is validated using survey data from farms in Canada. Findings highlight the importance of compatibility among PA technology components and the crucial role of farmers' expertise. The model provides the theoretical and empirical basis for developing policies and initiatives to support PA technology adoption.

Effectiveness of performance appraisal:an integrated framework

Based on a robust analysis of the existing literature on performance appraisal (PA), this paper makes a case for an integrated framework of effectiveness of performance appraisal (EPA). To achieve this, it draws on the expanded view of measurement criteria of EPA, i.e. purposefulness, fairness and accuracy, and identifies their relationships with ratee reactions. The analysis reveals that the expanded view of purposefulness includes more theoretical anchors for the purposes of PA and relates to various aspects of human resource functions, e.g. feedback and goal orientation. The expansion in the PA fairness criterion suggests certain newly established nomological networks, which were ignored in the past, e.g. the relationship between distributive fairness and organization-referenced outcomes. Further, refinements in PA accuracy reveal a more comprehensive categorization of rating biases. Coherence among measurement criteria has resulted in a ratee reactions-based integrated framework, which should be useful for both researchers and practitioners.

Advanced oxidation of arsenic species in aqueous solutions

Ingestion of arsenic from contaminated water is a serious problem and affects the health of more than 100 million people worldwide. Traditional water purification technologies are generally not effective or cost prohibitive for the removal of arsenic to acceptable levels (≤10 ppb). Current multi-step arsenic removal processes involve oxidation, precipitation and/or adsorption. Advanced Oxidation Technologies (AOTs) may be attractive alternatives to existing treatments. The reactions of inorganic and organic arsenic species with reactive oxygen species were studied to develop a fundamental mechanistic understanding of these reactions, which is critical in identifying an effective and economical technology for treatment of arsenic contaminated water. ^ Detailed studies on the conversion of arsenite in aqueous media by ultrasonic irradiation and TiO2 photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) were conducted, focusing on the roles of hydroxyl radical and superoxide anion radical formed during the irradiation. ·OH plays the key role, while O2 -· has little or no role in the conversion of arsenite during ultrasonic irradiation. The reaction of O2-· does not contribute in the rapid conversion of As(III) when compared to the reaction of As(III) with ·OH radical during TiO2 PCO. Monomethylarsonic acid (MMA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) are readily degraded upon TiO2 PCO. DMA is oxidized to MMA as the intermediate and arsenate as the final product. For dilute solutions, TiO2 also may be applicable as an adsorbent for direct removal of arsenic species, namely As(III), As(V), MMA and DMA, all of which are strongly adsorbed, thus eliminating the need for a multi-step treatment process. ^ Phenylarsonic acid (PA) was subjected to gamma radiolysis under hydroxyl radical generating conditions, which showed rapid degradation of PA. Product analysis and computational calculation both indicate the arsenate group is an ortho, para director. Our results indicate · OH radical mediated processes should be effective for the remediation of phenyl substituted arsonic acids. ^ While hydroxyl radical generating methods, specifically AOTs, appear to be promising methods for the treatment of a variety of arsenic compounds in aqueous media, pilot studies and careful economic analyses will be required to establish the feasibility of AOTs applications in the removal of arsenic. ^

Neglected Masterpieces of Cinema

This article will acquaint you with ten of the more important leftwing films I have reviewed over the past sixteen years as a member of New York Film Critics Online. You will not see listed familiar works such as “The Battle of Algiers” but instead those that deserve wider attention, the proverbial neglected masterpieces. They originate from different countries and are available through Internet streaming, either freely from Youtube or through Netflix or Amazon rental. In several instances you will be referred to film club websites that like the films under discussion deserve wider attention since they are the counterparts to the small, independent theaters where such films get premiered. The country of origin, date and director will be identified next to the title, followed by a summary of the film, and finally by its availability.

Preliminary results of the roman camp of La Cabeza del Cid (Hinojosa, Guadalajara, Spain)

The recent archaeological works in Hinojosa, allowed us to discover a camp from Roman republic period. It is located in the center of the Celtiberian area and its study could open interesting perspectives to study this historical period. This paper shows the results of its preliminary studies.

What is the Point of Copyright History?:Reflections on Copyright at Common law in 1774 by H. Tomás Gómez-Arostegui

Copyright history has long been a subject of intense and contested enquiry. Historical narratives about the early development of copyright were first prominently mobilised in eighteenth century British legal discourse, during the so-called Battle of the Booksellers between Scottish and London publishers. The two landmark copyright decisions of that time – Millar v. Taylor (1769) and Donaldson v. Becket (1774) – continue to provoke debate today. The orthodox reading of Millar and Donaldson presents copyright as a natural proprietary right at common law inherent in authors. Revisionist accounts dispute that traditional analysis. These conflicting perspectives have, once again, become the subject of critical scrutiny with the publication of Copyright at Common Law in 1774 by Prof Tomas Gomez-Arostegui in 2014, in the Connecticut Law Review ((2014) 47 Conn. L. Rev. 1) and as a CREATe Working Paper (No. 2014/16, 3 November 2014).

Taking Prof Gomez-Arostegui’s extraordinary work in this area as a point of departure, Dr Elena Cooper and Professor Ronan Deazley (then both academics at CREATe) organised an event, held at the University of Glasgow on 26th and 27th March 2015, to consider the interplay between copyright history and contemporary copyright policy. Is Donaldson still relevant, and, if so, why? What justificatory goals are served by historical investigation, and what might be learned from the history of the history of copyright? Does the study of copyright history still have any currency within an evidence-based policy context that is increasingly preoccupied with economic impact analysis?

This paper provides a lasting record of these discussions, including an editorial introduction, written comments by each of the panelists and Prof. Gomez-Arostegui and an edited transcript of the Symposium debate.

Women of an uncertain age: quantifying human capital accumulation in rural Ireland in the nineteenth century

Geary and Stark find that Ireland’s post-Famine per capita GDP converged with British levels, and that this convergence was largely due to total factor productivity growth rather than mass emigration. In this article, new long-run measurements of human capital accumulation in Ireland are devised in order to facilitate a better assessment of sources of this productivity growth, including the relative contribution of men and women. This is done by exploiting the frequency at which age data heap at round ages, widely interpreted as an indicator of a population’s basic numeracy skills. Because Földvári, van Leeuwen, and van Leeuwen-Li find that gender-specific trends in this measure derived from census returns are biased by who is reporting and recording the age information, any computed numeracy trends are corrected using data from prison and workhouse registers, sources in which women ostensibly self-reported their age. The findings show that rural Irish women born early in the nineteenth century had substantially lower levels of human capital than uncorrected census data would otherwise suggest. These results are large in magnitude and thus economically significant. The speed at which women converged is consistent with Geary and Stark’s interpretation of Irish economic history; Ireland probably graduated to Europe’s club of advanced economies thanks in part to rapid advances in female human capital.