Simple Estimation of Incident HIV Infection Rates in Notification Cohorts Based on Window Periods of Algorithms for Evaluation of Line-Immunoassay Result Patterns

Background Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence = Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident = true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Restrained and external-emotional eating patterns in young overweight children-results of the ulm birth cohort study

Childhood obesity is one of the greatest public health challenges in Western countries. Abnormal eating behavior is thought to be a developmental trajectory to obesity. The Eating Pattern Inventory for Children (EPI-C) has not been used for children as young as eight years, and possible associations with body weight have not yet been established. Five hundred and twenty-one children of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study (UBCS; age eight) filled out the EPI-C and BMI was assessed. Adequacy of the scales was tested with confirmatory factor analysis and a MANOVA and cluster analysis established associations between eating patterns and BMI. The factor structure of the EPI-C was confirmed (GFI = .968) and abnormal eating behavior was associated with overweight (χ2(8) = 79.29, p<.001). The EPI-C is a valid assessment tool in this young age group. Overweight children consciously restrain their eating.

Multimorbidity and quality of preventive care in Swiss university primary care cohorts.

BACKGROUND Caring for patients with multimorbidity is common for generalists, although such patients are often excluded from clinical trials, and thus such trials lack of generalizability. Data on the association between multimorbidity and preventive care are limited. We aimed to assess whether comorbidity number, severity and type were associated with preventive care among patients receiving care in Swiss University primary care settings. METHODS We examined a retrospective cohort composed of a random sample of 1,002 patients aged 50-80 years attending four Swiss university primary care settings. Multimorbidity was defined according to the literature and the Charlson index. We assessed the quality of preventive care and cardiovascular preventive care with RAND's Quality Assessment Tool indicators. Aggregate scores of quality of provided care were calculated by taking into account the number of eligible patients for each indicator. RESULTS Participants (mean age 63.5 years, 44% women) had a mean of 2.6 (SD 1.9) comorbidities and 67.5% had 2 or more comorbidities. The mean Charlson index was 1.8 (SD 1.9). Overall, participants received 69% of recommended preventive care and 84% of cardiovascular preventive care. Quality of care was not associated with higher numbers of comorbidities, both for preventive care and for cardiovascular preventive care. Results were similar in analyses using the Charlson index and after adjusting for age, gender, occupation, center and number of visits. Some patients may receive less preventive care including those with dementia (47%) and those with schizophrenia (35%). CONCLUSIONS In Swiss university primary care settings, two thirds of patients had 2 or more comorbidities. The receipt of preventive and cardiovascular preventive care was not affected by comorbidity count or severity, although patients with certain comorbidities may receive lower levels of preventive care.

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Leopold Loew : a biography ; with a transl. of some of the tributes paid to his memory on the occasion of the centenary of his birth ... 1911

by William N. Loewy

Childhood cancer survivor cohorts in Europe.

With the advent of multimodality therapy, the overall five-year survival rate from childhood cancer has improved considerably now exceeding 80% in developed European countries. This growing cohort of survivors, with many years of life ahead of them, has raised the necessity for knowledge concerning the risks of adverse long-term sequelae of the life-saving treatments in order to provide optimal screening and care and to identify and provide adequate interventions. Childhood cancer survivor cohorts in Europe. Considerable advantages exist to study late effects in individuals treated for childhood cancer in a European context, including the complementary advantages of large population-based cancer registries and the unrivalled opportunities to study lifetime risks, together with rich and detailed hospital-based cohorts which fill many of the gaps left by the large-scale population-based studies, such as sparse treatment information. Several large national cohorts have been established within Europe to study late effects in individuals treated for childhood cancer including the Nordic Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia study (ALiCCS), the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS), the Dutch Childhood Oncology Group (DCOG) LATER study, and the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS). Furthermore, there are other large cohorts, which may eventually become national in scope including the French Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (FCCSS), the French Childhood Cancer Survivor Study for Leukaemia (LEA), and the Italian Study on off-therapy Childhood Cancer Survivors (OTR). In recent years significant steps have been taken to extend these national studies into a larger pan-European context through the establishment of two large consortia - PanCareSurFup and PanCareLIFE. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the current large, national and pan-European studies of late effects after childhood cancer. This overview will highlight the strong cooperation across Europe, in particular the EU-funded collaborative research projects PanCareSurFup and PanCareLIFE. Overall goal. The overall goal of these large cohort studies is to provide every European childhood cancer survivor with better care and better long-term health so that they reach their full potential, and to the degree possible, enjoy the same quality of life and opportunities as their peers.

Prevalence of vascular disease in systemic lupus erythematosus compared with type-1 diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study of two cohorts.

OBJECTIVES Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is associated with considerable cardiovascular morbidity that has not yet been directly compared with other diseases with known cardiovascular risk. METHODS Two hundred and forty-one patients of the multicentre Swiss SLE cohort study (SSCS) were cross-sectionally assessed for coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD). SLE patients were compared with a cohort of 193 patients with type-1 diabetes mellitus being followed at the University Hospital Basel. A subgroup analysis of 50 age- and sex-matched patients from the University Hospital Basel was performed. RESULTS Of patients within the SSCS 13.3% had one or more vascular events: 8.3% CHD, 5% CVD and 1.2% PAD. In type-1 diabetes mellitus patients, 15% had vascular events: 9.3% CHD, 3.1% CVD and 5.6% PAD. In the matched subgroup, 26% of SLE patients had vascular events (14% CHD) compared with 12% in type-1 DM patients (2% CHD). Cardiovascular risk factors were similar in both groups. Vascular events in SLE patients were associated with age, longer disease duration, dyslipidaemia, and hypertension. CONCLUSION Cardiovascular morbidity in SLE is at least as frequent as in age- and sex-matched type-1 diabetes mellitus patients. Therefore, aggressive screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors should be performed.

Factors influencing the accuracy of fetal weight estimation with a focus on preterm birth at the limit of viability: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND Fetal weight estimation (FWE) is an important factor for clinical management decisions, especially in imminent preterm birth at the limit of viability between 23(0/7) and 26(0/7) weeks of gestation. It is crucial to detect and eliminate factors that have a negative impact on the accuracy of FWE. DATA SOURCES In this systematic literature review, we investigated 14 factors that may influence the accuracy of FWE, in particular in preterm neonates born at the limit of viability. RESULTS We found that gestational age, maternal body mass index, amniotic fluid index and ruptured membranes, presentation of the fetus, location of the placenta and the presence of multiple fetuses do not seem to have an impact on FWE accuracy. The influence of the examiner's grade of experience and that of fetal gender were discussed controversially. Fetal weight, time interval between estimation and delivery and the use of different formulas seem to have an evident effect on FWE accuracy. No results were obtained on the impact of active labor. DISCUSSION This review reveals that only few studies investigated factors possibly influencing the accuracy of FWE in preterm neonates at the limit of viability. Further research in this specific age group on potential confounding factors is needed.

Monitoring and Switching of First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: Collaborative Analysis of Adult Treatment Cohorts.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not universally available. We examined monitoring of first-line and switching to second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa, 2004-2013. METHODS Adult HIV-1 infected patients starting combination ART in 16 countries were included. Switching was defined as a change from a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen to a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen, with a change of ≥1 NRTI. Virological and immunological failures were defined per World Health Organization criteria. We calculated cumulative probabilities of switching and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing routine VL monitoring, targeted VL monitoring, CD4 cell monitoring and clinical monitoring, adjusted for programme and individual characteristics. FINDINGS Of 297,825 eligible patients, 10,352 patients (3·5%) switched during 782,412 person-years of follow-up. Compared to CD4 monitoring hazard ratios for switching were 3·15 (95% CI 2·92-3·40) for routine VL, 1·21 (1·13-1·30) for targeted VL and 0·49 (0·43-0·56) for clinical monitoring. Overall 58.0% of patients with confirmed virological and 19·3% of patients with confirmed immunological failure switched within 2 years. Among patients who switched the percentage with evidence of treatment failure based on a single CD4 or VL measurement ranged from 32·1% with clinical to 84.3% with targeted VL monitoring. Median CD4 counts at switching were 215 cells/µl under routine VL monitoring but lower with other monitoring (114-133 cells/µl). INTERPRETATION Overall few patients switched to second-line ART and switching occurred late in the absence of routine viral load monitoring. Switching was more common and occurred earlier with targeted or routine viral load testing.

Low Risk of Death, but Substantial Program Attrition, in Pediatric HIV Treatment Cohorts in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND: To date, an estimated 10% of children eligible for antiretroviral treatment (ART) receive it, and the frequency of retention in programs is unknown. We evaluated the 2-year risks of death and loss to follow-up (LTFU) of children after ART initiation in a multicenter study in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Pooled analysis of routine individual data from 16 participating clinics produced overall Kaplan-Meier estimates of the probabilities of death or LTFU after ART initiation. Risk factors analysis used Weibull regression, accounting for between-cohort heterogeneity. RESULTS: The median age of 2405 children at ART initiation was 4.9 years (12%, younger than 12 months), 52% were male, 70% had severe immunodeficiency, and 59% started ART with a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. The 2-year risk of death after ART initiation was 6.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9 to 8.1), independently associated with baseline severe anemia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 4.10 [CI: 2.36 to 7.13]), immunodeficiency (adjusted aHR: 2.95 [CI: 1.49 to 5.82]), and severe clinical status (adjusted aHR: 3.64 [CI: 1.95 to 6.81]); the 2-year risk of LTFU was 10.3% (CI: 8.9 to 11.9), higher in children with severe clinical status. CONCLUSIONS: Once on treatment, the 2-year risk of death is low but the LTFU risk is substantial. ART is still mainly initiated at advanced disease stage in African children, reinforcing the need for early HIV diagnosis, early initiation of ART, and procedures to increase program retention.

Trends of periodontal conditions in two different randomly selected Swiss (Bernese) cohorts 25 years apart

AIM To assess the periodontal conditions of two randomly selected Swiss cohorts 25 years apart. MATERIAL AND METHODS Standardized examinations were performed to assess the periodontal conditions of two randomly selected populations of the Canton of Bern; oral cleanliness was evaluated using the plaque index (PlI) and the retention index (RI). Gingival health was scored according to the gingival index (GI). Periodontal conditions were evaluated by pocket probing depth (PPD) and loss of attachment (LA). RESULTS At the first examination in 1985, 206 out of 350 subjects were evaluated, while in the second examination in 2010, 134 out of 490 subjects attended the examinations. In 1985, subjects showed a mean PlI of 1.16, and 0.77 in 2010. RI was 0.81 and 0.36 in 1985 and 2010 respectively. Mean GI was 1.34 and 0.6. The mean proportion of PPD ≤3 mm was 72% in 1985 and 97.3% in 2010. PPD ≥ 6 mm affected 2.0% in 1985 and 0.3% in 2010. In 1985, subjects had an average of 20.7 teeth, while in 2010, the average was 24.6. In 1985, 7.3% of the subjects were edentulous, while in 2010, 4.5% had no teeth. CONCLUSIONS Trends to improvements resulting in more teeth in function and better periodontal conditions were recognized.