947 resultados para Bayesian spatial analysis, dengue, socioecological factors
Resumo:
The origins of early farming and its spread to Europe have been the subject of major interest for some time. The main controversy today is over the nature of the Neolithic transition in Europe: the extent to which the spread was, for the most part, indigenous and animated by imitatio (cultural diffusion) or else was driven by an influx of dispersing populations (demic diffusion). We analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the transition using radiocarbon dates from 735 early Neolithic sites in Europe, the Near East, and Anatolia. We compute great-circle and shortest-path distances from each site to 35 possible agricultural centers of origin—ten are based on early sites in the Middle East and 25 arehypothetical locations set at 58 latitude/longitude intervals. We perform a linear fit of distance versus age (and viceversa) for each center. For certain centers, high correlation coefficients (R . 0.8) are obtained. This implies that a steady rate or speed is a good overall approximation for this historical development. The average rate of the Neolithic spread over Europe is 0.6–1.3 km/y (95% confidence interval). This is consistent with the prediction of demic diffusion(0.6–1.1 km/y). An interpolative map of correlation coefficients, obtained by using shortest-path distances, shows thatthe origins of agriculture were most likely to have occurred in the northern Levantine/Mesopotamian area
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On this instrumental study we intend to analyse the factorial structure of the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED) in a Spanish sample using exploratory and confirmatory factorial analysis. As a second objective we intend to develop a short form of it for rapid screening and, finally, to analyze the reliabilities of both questionnaires. The SCARED was administered to a community sample of 1,508 children aged between 8 and 12 years. The sample was randomly split using half for the exploratory analysis and the other half for the confirmatory study. Furthermore a reduced version of the SCARED was developed using the SchmidLeiman procedure. Exploratory Factor Analysis yielded a four factor structure comprised of Somatic/panic, Generalized anxiety, Separation anxiety and Social phobia factors This structure was confirmed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. The four factors, the full scale and the short scale showed good reliabilities. The results obtained seem to indicate that the Spanish version of the SCARED has good internal consistency, and along with other recent results, has a structure of four related factors that replicates the dimensions proposed for anxiety disorders by the DSM-IV-TR
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This study used chemometric tools and a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine the influence of organic matter and anthropogenic activity on the distribution of metal species between two major communities of the Middle Negro River Basin-AM. Higher concentrations of metal species were determined in flooded regions. The chemometric analysis showed the affinity of organic matter for potentially toxic metals, indicating its selectivity. GIS spatial analysis has shown that proximity to urban areas is a variable that is likely to influence the pattern of concentration of organic matter, and consequently the distribution of metal species between flooded and non-flooded areas.
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The feasibility of using augmented block designs and spatial analysis methods for early stage selection in eucalyptus breeding programs was tested. A total of 113 half-sib progenies of Eucalyptus urophylla and eight clones were evaluated in an 11 x 11 triple lattice experiment at two locations: Posto da Mata (Bahia, Brazil) and São Mateus (Minas Gerais, Brazil). Four checks were randomly allocated within each block. Plots consisted of 15 m long rows containing 6 plants spaced 3 m apart. The girth at breast height (cm/plant) was evaluated at 19 and 26 months of age. Variance analyses were performed according to the following methods: lattice design, randomized complete block design, augmented block design, Papadakis method, moving means method, and check plots. Comparisons among different methods were based on the magnitude of experimental errors and precision of the estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters. General results indicated that augmented block design is useful to evaluate progenies and clones in early selection in eucalyptus breeding programs using moderate and low selection intensities. However, this design is not suitable for estimating genetic and phenotypic parameters due to its low precision. Check plots, nearest neighbour, Papadakis (1937), and moving means methods were efficient in removing the heterogeneity within blocks. These efficiencies were compared to that in lattice analysis for estimation of genetic and phenotypic parameters.
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The study examines the signalling of text organisation in research articles (RA) in French. The work concentrates on a particular type of organisation provided by text sequences, i.e. structures organising text to items of which at least some are signalled by markers of addition or order: First… 0… The third point… In addition… / Premièrement… 0… Le troisième point… De plus… By indicating the way the text is organised, these structures guide the reader in the reading process so that he doesn’t need to interpret the text structure himself. The aim of the work is to study factors affecting the marking of text sequences. Why is their structure sometimes signalled explicitly by markers such as secondly, whereas in other places such markers are not used? The corpus is manually XML-annotated and consists of 90 RAs (~800 000 words) in French from the fields of linguistics, education and history. The analysis highlights several factors affecting the marking of text sequences. First, exact markers (such as fist ) seem to be more frequent in sequences where all the items are explicitly signalled by a marker, whereas additive markers (such as moreover) are used in sequences with both explicitly signalled and unmarked items. The marking of explicitly signalled sequences seems thus to be precise and even repetitive, whereas the signalling of sequences with unmarked items is altogether more vague. Second, the marking of text sequences seems to depend on the length of the text. The longer the text segment, the more vague the marking. Additive markers and unmarked items are more frequent in longer sequences possibly covering several pages, whereas shorter sequences are often signalled explicitly by exact markers. Also the marker types vary according to the sequence length. Anaphoric expressions, such as first, are fairly close to their referents and are used in short sequences, connectors, such as secondly, are frequently used in sequences of intermediate length, whereas the longest sequences are often signalled by constructions composed of an ordinal and a noun acting as a subject of the sentence: The first item is… Finally, the marking of text organisation depends also on the discipline the RA belongs to. In linguistics, the marking is fairly frequent and precise; exact markers such as second are the most used, and structures with unmarked items are less common. Similarly, the marking is fairly frequent in education. In this field, however, it is also less precise than in linguistics, with frequent unmarked items and additive markers. History, on the other hand, is characterised by less frequent marking. In addition, when used, the marking in this field is also less precise and less explicit.
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Teak (Tectona grandis) is one of the main timber species in the world with high economic value, famous for its beauty, strength and durability. The objective of this work was to characterize the genetic diversity of teak genotypes used in Brazilian plantations. Nine microsatellite primers were used to assess 60 teak genotypes, including 33 genotypes from seeds of plantations and 14 clones from Cáceres municipality, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, and 13 clones from Honduras, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, Ivory Coast and Solomon Islands. Two groups of genotypes were detected using the Bayesian Structure analysis: 80% were placed in group 1, represented by genotypes from Cáceres and one from Malaysia, and 20% allocated in group 2, composed of clones from India, Solomon Islands, Malaysia and Honduras and the clones from the Ivory Coast. Most of the genetic variability (73%) was concentrated within groups according to AMOVA analysis. Genetic parameters were estimated for the two groups obtained in the analysis of Structure. Moderate genetic diversity was found, with 4.1 alleles per locus, on average, and an average heterozygosity of 0.329, which was lower than the expected heterozygosity (He = 0.492). Group 1 showed the lowest values for these parameters. Suggestions were made concerning the identification of contrasting genotypes to be used as parents in breeding programs.
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ABSTRACT Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) along watercourses have been the focus of numerous studies, not only because of the fragility and ecological relevance of riverine vegetation, but also because of the inefficiency demonstrated in conforming to the legislation protecting it. One of the major difficulties encountered in terms of guaranteeing the effective conservation of these riverside areas is the absence of methodologies that can be used to define them rapidly and accurately without manually determining the widths of the rivers or assigning only uniform linear values for the entire watercourse. The present work sought to develop a spatial analysis methodology capable of automatically defining permanent preservation areas along watercourses using geographic information system (GIS) software. The present study was undertaken in the Sergipe River basin, "considering the river itself and its principal affluents. We used the database of the Digital Atlas of Hydrological Resources (SEMARH/SE), and the delimitations of the PPAs were performed using ArcGIS 10.1 and the XToolPro 9.0 extension. A total of 5,003.82 hectares of Permanent Preservation Areas were delimited along the margins of the rivers analyzed, with a margin of error of <1% in delimiting the widths of the rivers within the entire area considered. The methodology described here can be used to define PPAs efficiently, relatively rapidly, and with very small margins of error, thus representing a technological advance in terms of using GIS for land management.
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Weeds in pastures can intoxicate animals, and Arrabidaea bilabiata is the most important species for herbivores in floodplain areas in the Amazon Basin. Genetic diversity studies in natural populations may contribute to the better understanding of the range of toxicity and the genetic variability organization in this species. The objective of this study was to assess the variability and genetic structure in six populations of A. bilabiata sampled in floodplain areas in three municipalities of the Amazonas State, from the AFLP markers analysis. AFLP markers were efficient to characterize the genetic variability of the 65 individuals analyzed. From four combinations of oligonucleotides, a total of 309 AFLP fragments was obtained, where 304 (98.38%) were polymorphic. By the dendrogram and Bayesian cluster analysis, there was a formation of two isolated groups, the first one comprising individuals from Autazes municipality and the second one comprising individuals from Itacoatiara and Parintins. However, depending on the method to define the most probable cluster number, there was a separation of the six populations, according to their geographical origin. Mantel test confirmed that geographically closer populations are more akin, although low gene flow (0.538) is observed among the sampled populations. The molecular analysis of variance found that 49.29% of the genetic variability are among individuals inside populations and 50.71% among the populations analyzed. The results indicate the possibility that isolated A. bilabiata populations contain plants with different toxicity levels and suggest a strong adaptability of the species.
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The objective of the present study was to investigate the psychometric properties and cross-cultural validity of the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) among ethnic Chinese living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The study was conducted on 208 community individuals. Reliability and discriminant analysis were used to test the psychometric properties and validity of the BDI. Principal component analysis was performed to assess the BDI's factor structure for the total sample and by gender. The mean BDI score was lower (6.74, SD = 5.98) than observed in Western counterparts and showed no gender difference, good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.82), and high discrimination of depressive symptoms (75-100%). Factor analysis extracted two factors for the total sample and each gender: cognitive-affective dimension and somatic dimension. We conclude that depressive symptoms can be reliably assessed by the BDI in the Brazilian Chinese population, with a validity comparable to that for international studies. Indeed, cultural and measurement biases might have influenced the response of Chinese subjects.
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Functional MRI (fMRI) resting-state experiments are aimed at identifying brain networks that support basal brain function. Although most investigators consider a ‘resting-state’ fMRI experiment with no specific external stimulation, subjects are unavoidably under heavy acoustic noise produced by the equipment. In the present study, we evaluated the influence of auditory input on the resting-state networks (RSNs). Twenty-two healthy subjects were scanned using two similar echo-planar imaging sequences in the same 3T MRI scanner: a default pulse sequence and a reduced “silent” pulse sequence. Experimental sessions consisted of two consecutive 7-min runs with noise conditions (default or silent) counterbalanced across subjects. A self-organizing group independent component analysis was applied to fMRI data in order to recognize the RSNs. The insula, left middle frontal gyrus and right precentral and left inferior parietal lobules showed significant differences in the voxel-wise comparison between RSNs depending on noise condition. In the presence of low-level noise, these areas Granger-cause oscillations in RSNs with cognitive implications (dorsal attention and entorhinal), while during high noise acquisition, these connectivities are reduced or inverted. Applying low noise MR acquisitions in research may allow the detection of subtle differences of the RSNs, with implications in experimental planning for resting-state studies, data analysis, and ergonomic factors.
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The increasing presence of products derived from genetically modified (GM) plants in human and animal diets has led to the development of detection methods to distinguish biotechnology-derived foods from conventional ones. The conventional and real-time PCR have been used, respectively, to detect and quantify GM residues in highly processed foods. DNA extraction is a critical step during the analysis process. Some factors such as DNA degradation, matrix effects, and the presence of PCR inhibitors imply that a detection or quantification limit, established for a given method, is restricted to a matrix used during validation and cannot be projected to any other matrix outside the scope of the method. In Brazil, sausage samples were the main class of processed products in which Roundup Ready® (RR) soybean residues were detected. Thus, the validation of methodologies for the detection and quantification of those residues is absolutely necessary. Sausage samples were submitted to two different methods of DNA extraction: modified Wizard and the CTAB method. The yield and quality were compared for both methods. DNA samples were analyzed by conventional and real-time PCR for the detection and quantification of Roundup Ready® soybean in the samples. At least 200 ng of total sausage DNA was necessary for a reliable quantification. Reactions containing DNA amounts below this value led to large variations on the expected GM percentage value. In conventional PCR, the detection limit varied from 1.0 to 500 ng, depending on the GM soybean content in the sample. The precision, performance, and linearity were relatively high indicating that the method used for analysis was satisfactory.
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The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.
Resumo:
Transverse, subglacial bedforms (ribbed moraines) occur frequently in southern Keewatin, Nunavut, Canada, where they record a complex glacial history, including shifting centers of ice dispersal and fluctuating basal thermal regimes. Comprehensive mapping and quantitative morphometric analysis of the subglacial bedform archive in this sector reveals that ribbed moraines are spatially clustered by size and assume a broad range of visually distinct forms. Results suggest that end-member morphologies are consistent with a dichotomous polygenetic origin, and that a continuum of forms emerged through subsequent reshaping processes of variable intensity and duration. Translocation of mobile, immobile and quasi-mobile beds throughout the last glacial cycle conditioned the development of a subglacial deforming bed mosaic, and is likely responsible for the patchy zonation of palimpsest and inherited landscape signatures within this former core region of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Comparison against field evidence collected from central Norway suggests that bedforming processes can be locally mediated by pre-existing topography.
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Les pratiques relationnelles de soin (PRS) sont au cœur même des normes et valeurs professionnelles qui définissent la qualité de l’exercice infirmier, mais elles sont souvent compromises par un milieu de travail défavorable. La difficulté pour les infirmières à actualiser ces PRS qui s’inscrivent dans les interactions infirmière-patient par un ensemble de comportements de caring, constitue une menace à la qualité des soins, tout en créant d’importantes frustrations pour les infirmières. En mettant l’accent sur l’aspect relationnel du processus infirmier, cette recherche, abordée sous l'angle du caring, renvoie à une vision novatrice de la qualité des soins et de l'organisation des services en visant à expliquer l’impact du climat organisationnel sur le façonnement des PRS et la satisfaction professionnelle d’infirmières soignantes en milieu hospitalier. Cette étude prend appui sur une adaptation du Quality-Caring Model© de Duffy et Hoskins (2003) qui combine le modèle d’évaluation de la qualité de Donabedian (1980, 1992) et la théorie du Human Caring de Watson (1979, 1988). Un devis mixte de type explicatif séquentiel, combinant une méthode quantitative de type corrélationnel prédictif et une méthode qualitative de type étude de cas unique avec niveaux d’analyse imbriqués, a été privilégié. Pour la section quantitative auprès d’infirmières soignantes (n = 292), différentes échelles de mesure validées, de type Likert ont permis de mesurer les variables suivantes : le climat organisationnel (global et cinq dimensions composites) ; les PRS privilégiées ; les PRS actuelles ; l’écart entre les PRS privilégiées et actuelles ; la satisfaction professionnelle. Des analyses de régression linéaire hiérarchique ont permis de répondre aux six hypothèses du volet quantitatif. Pour le volet qualitatif, les données issues des sources documentaires, des commentaires recueillis dans les questionnaires et des entrevues effectuées auprès de différents acteurs (n = 15) ont été traités de manière systématique, par analyse de contenu, afin d’expliquer les liens entre les notions d’intérêts. L’intégration des inférences quantitatives et qualitatives s’est faite selon une approche de complémentarité. Nous retenons du volet quantitatif qu’une fois les variables de contrôle prises en compte, seule une dimension composite du climat organisationnel, soit les caractéristiques de la tâche, expliquent 5 % de la variance des PRS privilégiées. Le climat organisationnel global et ses dimensions composites relatives aux caractéristiques du rôle, de l’organisation, du supérieur et de l’équipe sont de puissants facteurs explicatifs des PRS actuelles (5 % à 11 % de la variance), de l’écart entre les PRS privilégiées et actuelles (4 % à 9 %) ainsi que de la satisfaction professionnelle (13 % à 30 %) des infirmières soignantes. De plus, il a été démontré, qu’au-delà de l’important impact du climat organisationnel global et des variables de contrôle, la fréquence des PRS contribue à augmenter la satisfaction professionnelle des infirmières (ß = 0,31 ; p < 0,001), alors que l’écart entre les PRS privilégiées et actuelles contribue à la diminuer (ß = - 0,30 ; p < 0,001) dans des proportions fort similaires (respectivement 7 % et 8 %). Le volet qualitatif a permis de mettre en relief quatre ordres de facteurs qui expliquent comment le climat organisationnel façonne les PRS et la satisfaction professionnelle des infirmières. Ces facteurs sont: 1) l’intensité de la charge de travail; 2) l’approche d’équipe et la perception du rôle infirmier ; 3) la perception du supérieur et de l’organisation; 4) certaines caractéristiques propres aux patients/familles et à l’infirmière. L’analyse de ces facteurs a révélé d’intéressantes interactions dynamiques entre quatre des cinq dimensions composites du climat, suggérant ainsi qu’il soit possible d’influencer une dimension en agissant sur une autre. L’intégration des inférences quantitatives et qualitatives rend compte de l’impact prépondérant des caractéristiques du rôle sur la réalisation des PRS et la satisfaction professionnelle des infirmières, tout en suggérant d’adopter une approche systémique qui mise sur de multiples facteurs dans la mise en oeuvre d’interventions visant l’amélioration des environnements de travail infirmier en milieu hospitalier.
Resumo:
Formées lors de l’effondrement gravitationnel d’un nuage de gaz moléculaire, les étoiles naissantes auront différentes masses variant entre 0.08 et environ 100M . La majorité de la population stellaire de la Galaxie est constituée d’étoiles dont la masse est inférieure à environ 0.6 M . Le dernier évènement de formation stellaire dans le voisinage solaire s’est produit dans la bulle locale il y a au plus 100 millions d’années, vraisemblablement provoqué par le passage d’une onde de choc dans le bras local de la Galaxie. C’est ainsi que se formèrent de jeunes associations d’étoiles dont les membres se caractérisent en particulier par une vitesse spatiale et une position commune dans la Galaxie. Les associations jeunes étant peu densément peuplées et relativement proches du Soleil, leurs membres se font plutôt rares et dispersés sur toute la voûte céleste. Jusqu’à présent, surtout les étoiles les plus massives (brillantes) ont été répertoriées. Les étoiles jeunes de faible masse, constituant la majorité de la population, restent pour la plupart à être identifiées. Les étoiles jeunes de faible masse représentent une population clef pour contraindre les modèles évolutifs des étoiles M et des naines brunes. Elles sont également d’excellentes candidates pour chercher des exoplanètes via les techniques d’imagerie directe. Ce mémoire présente une nouvelle méthode utilisant un modèle cinématique enrichi d’une analyse statistique Bayesienne pour identifier des étoiles jeunes de faible masse dans les associations beta Pictoris, Tucana-Horologium et AB Doradus. À partir d’un échantillon de 1080 étoiles K et M, toutes comportant des indicateurs de jeunesse tels l’émission Halpha et une forte luminosité dans les rayons X, leurs propriétés cinématiques (mouvement propre) et photométriques sont analysées pour en extraire 98 candidates hautement probables membres d’une des trois associations. Une confirmation de leur statut comme membre nécessitera en particulier une mesure de leur vitesse radiale (prédit par notre analyse) et une mesure de la largeur équivalente du lithium à 6708 Å pour mieux contraindre leur âge.