Insecticidal Activity of the Granulosis Virus in Combination with Neem Products and Talc Powder Against the Potato Tuberworm Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

The potato tuberworm Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) is an important agricultural pest that causes significant economic losses to potato growers worldwide. The addition of an effective method of biological control for the potato tuberworm is greatly needed, and is currently unavailable in Brazil. The granulosis virus (Baculoviridae) is a promising biological control agent to protect post-harvest potatoes and in storage from the potato tuberworm. However, the control measure must be economically feasible. Liquid suspensions of a granulosis virus applied alone or in mixture with two commercial neem oil-based products (DalNeem (TM) and NeemAzal (TM)), and a dry powder formulation of viral granules were evaluated for control of potato tuberworm larvae by treating potato tubers under laboratory conditions. High larval mortality (86.7%) was achieved when DalNeem and virus were applied together at 4 mg of azadirachtin/L and 10(4) occlusion bodies (OBs)/mL, respectively. This combination resulted in a parts per thousand yen50% efficacy in relation to their counterparts alone. Conversely, NeemAzal did not enhance virus effectiveness against larvae of the potato tuberworm. The talc-based virus formulation was used for dusting seed tubers at different concentrations and resulted in 100% larval mortality at 5 x 10(8) OBs/g. Formulated and unformulated virus provided 50% mortality at 166 OBs/g and at 5.0 x 10(5) OBs/mL, respectively. As a result, talc-based virus formulation had a better control efficiency on potato tuberworm than the aqueous virus suspension. The granulosis virus combined with DalNeem at low rates or formulated with talc powder is a viable option to control the potato tuberworm under storage conditions.

Clinical, histopathological and immunohistochemical assessment of human skin field cancerization before and after photodynamic therapy

Background The field cancerization concept in photodamaged patients suggests that the entire sun-exposed surface of the skin has an increased risk for the development of (pre)-malignant lesions, mainly epithelial tumours. Topical photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a noninvasive therapeutic method for multiple actinic keratosis (AK) with excellent outcome. Objectives To evaluate the clinical, histological and immunohistochemical changes in human skin with field cancerization after multiple sessions of PDT with methyl-aminolaevulinate (MAL). Methods Twenty-six patients with photodamaged skin and multiple AK on the face received three consecutive sessions of MAL-PDT with red light (37 J cm(-2)), 1 month apart. Biopsies before and 3 months after the last treatment session were taken from normal-appearing skin on the field-cancerized area. Immunohistochemical stainings were performed for TP-53, procollagen-I, metalloproteinase-1 (MMP-1) and tenascin-C (Tn-C). Results All 26 patients completed the study. The global score for photodamage improved considerably in all patients (P < 0.001). The AK clearance rate was 89.5% at the end of the study. Two treatment sessions were as effective as three MAL-PDT sessions. A significant decrease in atypia grade and extent of keratinocyte atypia was observed histologically (P < 0.001). Also, a significant increase in collagen deposition (P = 0.001) and improvement of solar elastosis (P = 0.002) were noticed after PDT. However, immunohistochemistry showed only a trend for decreased TP-53 expression (not significant), increased procollagen-I and MMP-1 expressions (not significant) and an increased expression of Tn-C (P = 0.024). Conclusions Clinical and histological improvement in field cancerization after multiple sessions of MAL-PDT is proven. The decrease in severity and extent of keratinocyte atypia associated with a decreased expression of TP-53 suggest a reduced carcinogenic potential of the sun-damaged area. The significant increase of new collagen deposition and the reduction of solar elastosis explain the clinical improvement of photodamaged skin.

Effect of fungicides and alternative products in control of anthracnose and black spot of guava

This work aimed to evaluate the efficiency of fungicides in controlling in vitro and in vivo the causal agents of anthracnose (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides and C. acutatum) and black spot (Guignardia psidii) and evaluate the effect of alternative products to control these diseases. Inhibition of mycelial growth of the pathogens was evaluated for ten fungicides at concentrations of 1, 10 and 100 mg L-1 of active ingredient in potato-dextrose-agar medium. The effectiveness of the fungicides azoxystrobin + difenoconazole, cyproconazole, pyraclostrobin, tebuconazole and tebuconazole + trifloxystrobin in controlling disease incidence and severity of anthracnose, through applications in the field, was measured in fruits collected at three stages of maturation, according to the skin color ( dark green, light green and yellowish green). In postharvest dipping of fruits, the products evaluated were citric acid, peracetic acid, salicylic acid, sodium bicarbonate, chlorine dioxide, Ecolife (R) and chitosan. The fungicides azoxystrobin + difenoconazole, pyraclostrobin, tebuconazole and trifloxystrobin + tebuconazole were highly effective in inhibiting the in vitro mycelial growth of G. psidii and moderately to highly effective in inhibiting C. acutatum and C. gloeosporioides. In field conditions, the fungicide azoxystrobin + difenoconazole was effective in controlling anthracnose and black spot in fruit at three maturity stage ( skin color yellowish green). The alternative products tested were ineffective in the curative control of anthracnose and early blight at postharvest of guava.

High Proportion of Male Faeces in Jaguar Populations

Faeces provide relevant biological information which includes, with the application of genetic techniques, the sex and identity of individuals that defecated, thus providing potentially useful data on the behaviour and ecology of individuals, as well as the dynamics and structure of populations. This paper presents estimates of the sex ratio of different felid species (jaguar, Panthera onca; puma, Puma concolor; and ocelot/margay, Leopardus pardalis/Leopardus wiedi) as observed in field collected faeces, and proposes several hypotheses that could explain the strikingly high proportion of faeces from male jaguars. The proportion of male and female faeces was estimated using a non-invasive faecal sampling method in 14 study areas in Mexico and Brazil. Faecal samples were genetically analysed to identify the species, the sex and the individual (the latter only for samples identified as belonging to jaguars). Considering the three species, 72.6% of faeces (n = 493) were from males; however, there were significant differences among them, with the proportion from males being higher for jaguars than for pumas and ocelots/margays. A male-bias was consistently observed in all study areas for jaguar faeces, but not for the other species. For jaguars the trend was the same when considering the number of individuals identified (n = 68), with an average of 4.2 +/- 0.56 faeces per male and 2.0 +/- 0.36 per female. The observed faecal marking patterns might be related to the behaviour of female jaguars directed toward protecting litters from males, and in both male and female pumas, to prevent interspecific aggressions from male jaguars. The hypothesis that there are effectively more males than females in jaguar populations cannot be discarded, which could be due to the fact that females are territorial and males are not, or a tendency for males to disperse into suboptimal areas for the species.

Shape differences rather than size differences between castes in the Neotropical swarm-founding wasp Metapolybia docilis (Hymenoptera: Vespidae, Epiponini)

Abstract Background Swarm-founding epiponine wasps are an intriguing group of social insects in which colonies are polygynic (several queens share reproduction) and differentiation between castes is often not obvious. However, caste differences in some may be more pronounced in later phases of the colony cycle. Results Using morphometric analyses and multivariate statistics, it was found that caste differences in Metapolybia docilis are slight but more distinct in latter stages of the colony cycle. Conclusions Because differences in body parts are so slight, it is proposed that such variation may be due to differential growth rates of body parts rather than to queens being larger in size, similar to other previously observed epiponines.

Vegetation mapping in an area of Ombrophilous Dense Forest at Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, São Paulo State, Brazil, and floristic composition of the tree component of some physiognomies*

This study aimed to map phytophysiognomies of an area of Ombrophilous Dense Forest at Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar and characterize their floristic composition. Photointerpretation of aerial photographs in scale of 1:35,000 was realized in association with field work. Thirteen physiognomies were mapped and they were classified as Montane Ombrophilous Dense Forest, Alluvial Ombrophilous Dense Forest or Secondary System. Three physiognomies identified at Casa de Pedra streamlet's basin were studied with more details. Riparian forest (RF), valley forest (VF), and hill forest (HF) presented some floristic distinction, as confirmed by Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Indicator Species Analysis (ISA) conducted here. Anthropic or natural disturbances and heterogeneity of environmental conditions may be the causes of physiognomic variation in the vegetation of the region. The results presented here may be useful to decisions related to management and conservation of Núcleo Santa Virgínia forests, in general.

Programmable logic design of a compact Genetic Algorithm for phasor estimation in real-time

The main objective of this work is to present an efficient method for phasor estimation based on a compact Genetic Algorithm (cGA) implemented in Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). To validate the proposed method, an Electrical Power System (EPS) simulated by the Alternative Transients Program (ATP) provides data to be used by the cGA. This data is as close as possible to the actual data provided by the EPS. Real life situations such as islanding, sudden load increase and permanent faults were considered. The implementation aims to take advantage of the inherent parallelism in Genetic Algorithms in a compact and optimized way, making them an attractive option for practical applications in real-time estimations concerning Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs).

Prototipo del aplicación de recomendaciones sobre la dieta mediterránea

[ES] Este prototipo pretende servir como base de una aplicación que busca mejorar el estilo de vida mediante la adaptación a la dieta mediterránea,  una de las dietas con mayor aceptación por parte de los expertos del campo de la salud. Este software consiste en una aplicación servidor en entorno Ruby on Rails que realiza la función de gestor de contenidos para la aplicación del dispositivo móvil bajo plataforma iOS usando Objective-C, comunicadas entre sí por una API REST. Entre sus funciones, se permite evaluar el nivel de adaptación a la dieta mediterránea del usuario, ofreciéndole posteriormente un menú variado siguiendo las recomendaciones de dietistas expertos. Dicho menú es individualizado, tomando en cuenta las diferentes alergias que padece el usuario para realizar un filtrado de las recetas, consultables en todo momento desde la aplicación. Se presentan además una serie de pantallas interactivas con información sobre la dieta mediterránea y la vida sana.

Come città dell'infanzia. Architettura, educazione e immagine in due colonie per i figli degli Italiani all'estero a Cattolica e Tirrenia

The present doctoral dissertation deals with two significant case studies of Italian holiday camps which appear as interesting architectural experiences that reflect both the pedagogic and educational programmes of the fascist regime, and the discussion on the constructive and expressive principles that characterize the Italian architecture during the Thirties. The research explains the colony "XXVIII October for the sons of the Italian workers living abroad", today known as "Le Navi" ("The Ships"), built in Cattolica in 1934 and projected by the Roman architect Clemente Busiri Vici, and the feminine colony "for the sons of the Italian workers living abroad" built in 1934 in Tirrenia and projected by the architects Mario Paniconi and Giulio Pediconi. These holiday camps are the sole buildings commissioned directly by the Department in the Italian Foreign Office with the aim of offering a seaside stay to the sons of the Italians living in the colonies who, probably, could visit Italy only one time in their life. Firstly, the work illustrates the most relevant themes concerning these holiday camps, such as the representative intents that the buildings evoked to the children attending the places. Sun-bathing and group gymnastics were some of the rituals in the communal life, where order and discipline gave a precise internal organization to the spaces. Over the correspondence to practical functions, the figures and the forms of the different spaces of the buildings involve the children in an educational dimension. Subsequently, the function of the Department in the Italian Foreign Office and the planning and constructive ideas of the two colonies will be introduced. These colonies were conceived by a precise social project with educational, welfare and therapeutic aims. The elements, the spaces and the volumes create a fixed and theatrical scene of the life, full of ideological, political and celebratory overtones. Finally, the research shows that the relation between the architectural shape of the buildings and the rituals performed by fascist tutors produces an ideal space, extraneous to the external world that could influence the behavior of the children. The plan is to transmit to the children an image of Italy that will remain engraved in their minds once they have returned to their countries. In these projects there is the intent to transmit the image of "italianity" abroad. The way to do this was to plan for them a scenery which contains all the architectural elements of Italian cities. The holiday camps are proposed a sort of microcosm that appears as an "evocation" of the places and the spaces of Italian cities. The buildings appear as veritable "cities of childhood".

Metodi di ottimizzazione morfologica nel progetto preliminare di propulsori aeronautici avanzati

The aim of this Doctoral Thesis is to develop a genetic algorithm based optimization methods to find the best conceptual design architecture of an aero-piston-engine, for given design specifications. Nowadays, the conceptual design of turbine airplanes starts with the aircraft specifications, then the most suited turbofan or turbo propeller for the specific application is chosen. In the aeronautical piston engines field, which has been dormant for several decades, as interest shifted towards turboaircraft, new materials with increased performance and properties have opened new possibilities for development. Moreover, the engine’s modularity given by the cylinder unit, makes it possible to design a specific engine for a given application. In many real engineering problems the amount of design variables may be very high, characterized by several non-linearities needed to describe the behaviour of the phenomena. In this case the objective function has many local extremes, but the designer is usually interested in the global one. The stochastic and the evolutionary optimization techniques, such as the genetic algorithms method, may offer reliable solutions to the design problems, within acceptable computational time. The optimization algorithm developed here can be employed in the first phase of the preliminary project of an aeronautical piston engine design. It’s a mono-objective genetic algorithm, which, starting from the given design specifications, finds the engine propulsive system configuration which possesses minimum mass while satisfying the geometrical, structural and performance constraints. The algorithm reads the project specifications as input data, namely the maximum values of crankshaft and propeller shaft speed and the maximal pressure value in the combustion chamber. The design variables bounds, that describe the solution domain from the geometrical point of view, are introduced too. In the Matlab® Optimization environment the objective function to be minimized is defined as the sum of the masses of the engine propulsive components. Each individual that is generated by the genetic algorithm is the assembly of the flywheel, the vibration damper and so many pistons, connecting rods, cranks, as the number of the cylinders. The fitness is evaluated for each individual of the population, then the rules of the genetic operators are applied, such as reproduction, mutation, selection, crossover. In the reproduction step the elitist method is applied, in order to save the fittest individuals from a contingent mutation and recombination disruption, making it undamaged survive until the next generation. Finally, as the best individual is found, the optimal dimensions values of the components are saved to an Excel® file, in order to build a CAD-automatic-3D-model for each component of the propulsive system, having a direct pre-visualization of the final product, still in the engine’s preliminary project design phase. With the purpose of showing the performance of the algorithm and validating this optimization method, an actual engine is taken, as a case study: it’s the 1900 JTD Fiat Avio, 4 cylinders, 4T, Diesel. Many verifications are made on the mechanical components of the engine, in order to test their feasibility and to decide their survival through generations. A system of inequalities is used to describe the non-linear relations between the design variables, and is used for components checking for static and dynamic loads configurations. The design variables geometrical boundaries are taken from actual engines data and similar design cases. Among the many simulations run for algorithm testing, twelve of them have been chosen as representative of the distribution of the individuals. Then, as an example, for each simulation, the corresponding 3D models of the crankshaft and the connecting rod, have been automatically built. In spite of morphological differences among the component the mass is almost the same. The results show a significant mass reduction (almost 20% for the crankshaft) in comparison to the original configuration, and an acceptable robustness of the method have been shown. The algorithm here developed is shown to be a valid method for an aeronautical-piston-engine preliminary project design optimization. In particular the procedure is able to analyze quite a wide range of design solutions, rejecting the ones that cannot fulfill the feasibility design specifications. This optimization algorithm could increase the aeronautical-piston-engine development, speeding up the production rate and joining modern computation performances and technological awareness to the long lasting traditional design experiences.

Mappaggio fine di un QTL principale per la resa in granella sul cromosoma 3B di frumento duro

In durum wheat, two major QTL for grain yield (Qyld.idw-2B and Qyld.idw-3B) and related traits were identified in a recombinant population derived from Kofa and Svevo (Maccaferri et al. 2008). To further investigate the genetic and physiological basis of allelic variation for this important trait, the fine mapping of Qyld.idw-2B e Qyld.idw-3B was done during the PhD. In this regard, new molecular markers were added to increase the map resolution in the target interval. For Qyld.idw-2B region COS markers derived from the synteny between wheat and rice/ sorghum /brachypodiu genomes were screened. While for Qyld.idw-3B region SSR, ISBP and COS markers obtained from BAC end-sequences and BAC sequences generated during the construction of the 3B physical map (Paux et al., 2008) were screened. In the RIL population a final map resolution of 2,8 markers/cM for Qyld.idw-2B and 0,6 markers/cM for Qyld.idw-3B were obtained. Eighteen pairs of near-isogenic lines (NILs) for Qyld.idw-3B were obtained from F4:5 heterogeneous inbred families. In order to confirm the phenotypic effect of the QTL all pairs were evaluated in field trials (2010 and 2011) for all traits. Three pairs of NILs, with contrasted haplotypes at the target region, were crossed to produce a large F2 population (ca. 7,500 plants in total) that was screened for the identification of recombinants. A total of 233 homozygous F4:5 segmental isolines were obtained and the phenotypic and genotypic characterization of these materials were done. A fine mapping for Qyld.idw-3B was obtained and the QTL peak was identified in a interval of 0,4 cM. All markers were anchored to the Chinese Spring physical map of chr. 3B, which allowed us to identify the BAC Contigs spanning the QTL region and to assign the QTL peak to Contig 954. Sequencing of this contig has revealed the presence of 42 genes.

Characterisation and field deployment of a novel quantitative Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (ToF-AMS)

Das Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (ToF-AMS) der Firma Aerodyne ist eine Weiterentwicklung des Aerodyne Aerosolmassenspektrometers (Q-AMS). Dieses ist gut charakterisiert und kommt weltweit zum Einsatz. Beide Instrumente nutzen eine aerodynamische Linse, aerodynamische Partikelgrößenbestimmung, thermische Verdampfung und Elektronenstoß-Ionisation. Im Gegensatz zum Q-AMS, wo ein Quadrupolmassenspektrometer zur Analyse der Ionen verwendet wird, kommt beim ToF-AMS ein Flugzeit-Massenspektrometer zum Einsatz. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird anhand von Laborexperimenten und Feldmesskampagnen gezeigt, dass das ToF-AMS zur quantitativen Messung der chemischen Zusammensetzung von Aerosolpartikeln mit hoher Zeit- und Größenauflösung geeignet ist. Zusätzlich wird ein vollständiges Schema zur ToF-AMS Datenanalyse vorgestellt, dass entwickelt wurde, um quantitative und sinnvolle Ergebnisse aus den aufgenommenen Rohdaten, sowohl von Messkampagnen als auch von Laborexperimenten, zu erhalten. Dieses Schema basiert auf den Charakterisierungsexperimenten, die im Rahmen dieser Arbeit durchgeführt wurden. Es beinhaltet Korrekturen, die angebracht werden müssen, und Kalibrationen, die durchgeführt werden müssen, um zuverlässige Ergebnisse aus den Rohdaten zu extrahieren. Beträchtliche Arbeit wurde außerdem in die Entwicklung eines zuverlässigen und benutzerfreundlichen Datenanalyseprogramms investiert. Dieses Programm kann zur automatischen und systematischen ToF-AMS Datenanalyse und –korrektur genutzt werden.

Fiber-Optic Technologies for Wireline and Wireless In-building Networks

This doctoral dissertation aims to establish fiber-optic technologies overcoming the limiting issues of data communications in indoor environments. Specific applications are broadband mobile distribution in different in-building scenarios and high-speed digital transmission over short-range wired optical systems. Two key enabling technologies are considered: Radio over Fiber (RoF) techniques over standard silica fibers for distributed antenna systems (DAS) and plastic optical fibers (POFs) for short-range communications. Hence, the objectives and achievements of this thesis are related to the application of RoF and POF technologies in different in-building scenarios. On one hand, a theoretical and experimental analysis combined with demonstration activities has been performed on cost-effective RoF systems. An extensive modeling on modal noise impact both on linear and non-linear characteristics of RoF link over silica multimode fiber has been performed to achieve link design rules for an optimum choice of the transmitter, receiver and launching technique. A successful transmission of Long Term Evolution (LTE) mobile signals on the resulting optimized RoF system over silica multimode fiber employing a Fabry-Perot LD, central launch technique and a photodiode with a built-in ball lens was demonstrated up to 525m with performances well compliant with standard requirements. On the other hand, digital signal processing techniques to overcome the bandwidth limitation of POF have been investigated. An uncoded net bit-rate of 5.15Gbit/s was obtained on a 50m long POF link employing an eye-safe transmitter, a silicon photodiode, and DMT modulation with bit and power loading algorithm. With the insertion of 3x2N quadrature amplitude modulation constellation formats, an uncoded net-bit-rate of 5.4Gbit/s was obtained on a 50 m long POF link employing an eye-safe transmitter and a silicon avalanche photodiode. Moreover, simultaneous transmission of baseband 2Gbit/s with DMT and 200Mbit/s with an ultra-wideband radio signal has been validated over a 50m long POF link.

Evaluation of Silver European EEL (anguilla anguilla) for the implementation of an Effective EEL Management plan in Mediterranean Coastal Lagoons

This thesis presents SEELF (Sustainable EEL fishery) Index, a methodology for evaluation of European eel (Anguilla anguilla) for the implementation of an effective Eel Management Plan, as defined by EU Regulation No.1100/2007. SEELF uses internal and external indices, age and blood parameters, and selects suitable specimen for restocking; it is also a reliable tool for eel stock management. In fact, SEELF Index, was developed in two versions: SEELF A, to be used in field operations (catch&release, eel status monitoring) and SEELF B to be used for quality control (food production) and research (eel status monitoring). Health status was evaluated also by biomarker analysis (ChE), and data were compared with age of eel. Age determination was performed with otolith reading and fish scale reading and a calibration between the two methods was possible. The study area was the Comacchio lagoon, a brackish coastal lagoon in Italy, well known as an example of suitable environment for eel fishery, where the capability to use the local natural resources has long been a key factor for a successful fishery management. Comacchio lagoon is proposed as an area where an effective EMP can be performed, in agreement with the main features (management of basins, reduction of mortality due to predators,etc.) highlighted for designation of European Restocking Area (ERA). The ERA is a new concept, proposed as a pillar of a new strategy on eel management and conservation. Furthermore, the features of ERAs can be useful in the framework of European Scale Eel Management Plan (ESEMP), proposed as a European scale implementation of EMP, providing a more effectiveness of conservation measures for eel management.

Landwirtschaftliche Schaderregerprognose mit Hilfe von geographischen Informationssystemen

In der hier vorliegenden Arbeit wurde am Beispiel der Kraut- und Knollenfäule an Kartoffeln Phytophthora infestans und des Kartoffelkäfers Leptinotarsa decemlineata untersucht, ob durch den Einsatz von Geographischen Informationssystemen (GIS) landwirtschaftliche Schader¬reger¬prognosen für jeden beliebigen Kartoffelschlag in Deutschland erstellt werden können. Um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, wurden die Eingangsparameter (Temperatur und relative Luftfeuchte) der Prognosemodelle für die beiden Schaderreger (SIMLEP1, SIMPHYT1, SIMPHYT3 and SIMBLIGHT1) so aufbereitet, dass Wetterdaten flächendeckend für Deutschland zur Verfügung standen. Bevor jedoch interpoliert werden konnte, wurde eine Regionalisierung von Deutschland in Interpolationszonen durchgeführt und somit Naturräume geschaffen, die einen Vergleich und eine Bewertung der in ihnen liegenden Wetterstationen zulassen. Hierzu wurden die Boden-Klima-Regionen von SCHULZKE und KAULE (2000) modifiziert, an das Wetterstationsnetz angepasst und mit 5 bis 10 km breiten Pufferzonen an der Grenze der Interpolationszonen versehen, um die Wetterstationen so häufig wie möglich verwenden zu können. Für die Interpolation der Wetterdaten wurde das Verfahren der multiplen Regression gewählt, weil dieses im Vergleich zu anderen Verfahren die geringsten Abweichungen zwischen interpolierten und gemessenen Daten aufwies und den technischen Anforderungen am besten entsprach. Für 99 % aller Werte konnten bei der Temperaturberechnung Abweichungen in einem Bereich zwischen -2,5 und 2,5 °C erzielt werden. Bei der Berechnung der relativen Luftfeuchte wurden Abweichungen zwischen -12 und 10 % relativer Luftfeuchte erreicht. Die Mittelwerte der Abweichungen lagen bei der Temperatur bei 0,1 °C und bei der relativen Luftfeuchte bei -1,8 %. Zur Überprüfung der Trefferquoten der Modelle beim Betrieb mit interpolierten Wetterdaten wurden Felderhebungsdaten aus den Jahren 2000 bis 2007 zum Erstauftreten der Kraut- und Knollenfäule sowie des Kartoffelkäfers verwendet. Dabei konnten mit interpolierten Wetterdaten die gleichen und auch höhere Trefferquoten erreicht werden, als mit der bisherigen Berechnungsmethode. Beispielsweise erzielte die Berechnung des Erstauftretens von P. infestans durch das Modell SIMBLIGHT1 mit interpolierten Wetterdaten im Schnitt drei Tage geringere Abweichungen im Vergleich zu den Berechnungen ohne GIS. Um die Auswirkungen interpretieren zu können, die durch Abweichungen der Temperatur und der relativen Luftfeuchte entstanden wurde zusätzlich eine Sensitivitätsanalyse zur Temperatur und relativen Luftfeuchte der verwendeten Prognosemodelle durchgeführt. Die Temperatur hatte bei allen Modellen nur einen geringen Einfluss auf das Prognoseergebnis. Veränderungen der relativen Luftfeuchte haben sich dagegen deutlich stärker ausgewirkt. So lag bei SIMBLIGHT1 die Abweichung durch eine stündliche Veränderung der relativen Luftfeuchte (± 6 %) bei maximal 27 Tagen, wogegen stündliche Veränderungen der Temperatur (± 2 °C) eine Abweichung von maximal 10 Tagen ausmachten. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass durch die Verwendung von GIS mindestens die gleichen und auch höhere Trefferquoten bei Schaderregerprognosen erzielt werden als mit der bisherigen Verwendung von Daten einer nahegelegenen Wetterstation. Die Ergebnisse stellen einen wesentlichen Fortschritt für die landwirtschaftlichen Schaderregerprognosen dar. Erstmals ist es möglich, bundesweite Prognosen für jeden beliebigen Kartoffelschlag zur Bekämpfung von Schädlingen in der Landwirtschaft bereit zu stellen.