Testing the descriptive performance of the rank-dependent utility in the domain of health profiles

Expected utility theory (EUT) has been challenged as a descriptive theoryin many contexts. The medical decision analysis context is not an exception.Several researchers have suggested that rank dependent utility theory (RDUT)may accurately describe how people evaluate alternative medical treatments.Recent research in this domain has addressed a relevant feature of RDU models-probability weighting-but to date no direct test of this theoryhas been made. This paper provides a test of the main axiomatic differencebetween EUT and RDUT when health profiles are used as outcomes of riskytreatments. Overall, EU best described the data. However, evidence on theediting and cancellation operation hypothesized in Prospect Theory andCumulative Prospect Theory was apparent in our study. we found that RDUoutperformed EU in the presentation of the risky treatment pairs in whichthe common outcome was not obvious. The influence of framing effects onthe performance of RDU and their importance as a topic for future researchis discussed.

Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

Arthropods associated with pig carrion in two vegetation profiles of Cerrado in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Forensic Entomology research has been concentrated in only a few localities of the "Cerrado" vegetation, the Brazilian Savannah. The present study had, as its objective, an examination of the diversity of arthropod fauna associated with the carcasses of Sus scrofa (Linnaeus) in this biome. The study was conducted during the dry and humid periods in two Cerrado vegetation profiles of the State of Minas Gerais. The decaying process was slower and greater quantities of arthropods were collected during the dry period. Insects represented 99% of 161,116 arthropods collected. The majority of these were Diptera (80.2%) and Coleoptera (8.8%). The entomofauna belong to 85 families and at least 212 species. Diptera were represented by 31 families and at least 132 species. Sarcophagidae (Diptera) and Scarabaeidae (Coleoptera) were the richest groups. Oxysarcodexia (Sarcophagidae) presented the largest number of attracted species, however none of these species bred in the carcasses. The Coleoptera collected belong to at least 50 species of 21 families. Among these species, Dermestes maculatus and Necrobia rufipes were observed breeding in the carcasses. This study showed species with potential importance for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI), indicative of seasonal and environmental type located.

Whole brain radiotherapy with a conformational external beam radiation boost for lung cancer patients with 1-3 brain metastasis: a multi institutional study.

BACKGROUND: To determine the outcome of patients with brain metastasis (BM) from lung cancer treated with an external beam radiotherapy boost (RTB) after whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). METHODS: A total of 53 BM patients with lung cancer were treated sequentially with WBRT and RTB between 1996 and 2008 according to our institutional protocol. Mean age was 58.8 years. The median KPS was 90. Median recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and graded prognostic assessment (GPA) grouping were 2 and 2.5, respectively. Surgery was performed on 38 (71%) patients. The median number of BM was 1 (range, 1-3). Median WBRT and RTB combined dose was 39 Gy (range, 37.5-54). Median follow-up was 12.0 months. RESULTS: During the period of follow-up, 37 (70%) patients died. The median overall survival (OS) was 14.5 months. Only 13 patients failed in the brain. The majority of patients (n = 29) failed distantly. The 1-year OS, -local control, extracranial failure rates were 61.2%, 75.2% and 60.8%, respectively. On univariate analysis, improved OS was found to be significantly associated with total dose (< or = 39 Gy vs. > 39 Gy; p < 0.01), age < 65 (p < 0.01), absence of extracranial metastasis (p < 0.01), GPA > or = 2.5 (p = 0.01), KPS > or = 90 (p = 0.01), and RPA < 2 (p = 0.04). On multivariate analysis, total dose (p < 0.01) and the absence of extracranial metastasis (p = 0.03) retained statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of lung cancer patients treated with WBRT and RTB progressed extracranially. There might be a subgroup of younger patients with good performance status and no extracranial disease who may benefit from dose escalation after WBRT to the metastatic site.

Job dynamics, correlated shocks and wage profiles

We generalize the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) model of the labor marketwith a more realistic structure for the stochastic process of theshocks to the worker-firm match. In this way we can acommodate theempirical observation that hazard rates of job termination decrease andaverage wages increase with job tenure. Besides being able to fit bettersome observables of the model, the changes we introduce are nontrivialfor the analysis of policies as well.

Atypical EPO profiles in anti-doping analyses

Résumé : Erythropoietin (EPO) is a glycoprotein hormone endogenously produced by the kidney, whose main physiological role is the stimulation of erythropoiesis. Since the beginning of the nineties, recombinant human EPO (rhEPO), a potent anti-anaemia treatment drug, has been manufactured by pharmaceutical industries. However, the erythropoiesis stimulating power of rhEPO was rapidly misused by unscrupulous athletes in order to improve their performances in endurance sports. Endogenous EPO has the same amino-acid backbone as most of recombinant forms; the molecules however differ through their respective glycosylation patterns. This difference constitutes the basis of the usual EPO screening test (IEF) developed in 2000 and still currently used in all anti-doping laboratories of the world. Nowadays, 3 EPO generations have been commercialized. The fight against EPO abuse is a continuous challenge for anti-doping laboratories. The diversity of recombinant EPO forms and the continuous development of new ones considerably confuse the identification of EPO doping. Several facets of this fight were investigated in this work. One of the limiting aspects of doping agents screening is the availability of positive samples. Therefore, 2nd and 3rd generation EPOS, namely NESP and C.E.R.A., were injected to healthy subjects in the frame of pilot clinical studies. These latter allowed to review the current EPO identification criteria defined by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) in the case of NESP and to validate and implement a new assay targeting C.E.R.A. in human serum. Both studies resulted in the determination of the respective detection windows of NESP and C.E.R.A. in biological fluids. Following that, Dynepo, a 1st generation EPO presenting similarities with the endogenous form, was also in the centre of a similar clinical study. Our work aimed to overcome the actual identification criteria, which are not adapted to Dynpeo, and to propose an alternative pattern classification method based on the discriminant analysis of IEF EPO profiles. This method might be validated for other EPO forms in the future. The detection window of this molecule was also determined. Under particular conditions, confounding effects can complicate the identification of EPO in biological matrices. For example, athletes having performed a strenuous physical effort can excrete modified isoforms of endogenous EPO, making it very similar to some recombinant forms. Such phenomena, called effort urines, were reproduced under controlled conditions and, after characterization of effort EPO, an urinary biochemical marker was proposed to unequivocally identify effort urines. It also happens that EPO analyses fail to detect endogenous levels of EPO. Such profiles were thoroughly investigated and potential causes identified. Natural reasons relying on urine properties and test specificity were underlined, but the possible addition of adulterant agents in urine samples was also considered. Therefore, a simple biochemical assay targeting the suspected substances was set up. Our work was based on the characterization of atypical EPO profiles from different origins. Therefore, 3 EPO molecules representing the 3 generations of the drug and 2 confounding effects confusing the results interpretation were studied. These studies resulted in tangible applications for the laboratory, the best example of which being the C.E.R.A. assay, but also in scientific findings allowing to improve our comprehension of EPO doping in sport.

Differential transgene expression profiles in rat brain, using rAAV2/1 vectors with tetracycline-inducible and cytomegalovirus promoters.

The biodistribution of transgene expression in the CNS after localized stereotaxic vector delivery is an important issue for the safety of gene therapy for neurological diseases. The cellular specificity of transgene expression from rAAV2/1 vectors (recombinant adeno-associated viral vectors pseudotyped with viral capsids from serotype 1) using the tetracycline-inducible (TetON) expression cassette in comparison with the cytomegalovirus (CMV) promoter was investigated in the rat nigrostriatal pathway. After intrastriatal injection, although green fluorescent protein (GFP) was expressed mainly in neurons with both vectors, the relative proportions of DARPP-32-positive projection neurons and parvalbumin-positive interneurons were, respectively, 13:1 and 2:1 for the CMV and TetON vectors. DARP32-positive neurons projecting to the globus pallidus were strongly GFP positive with both vectors, whereas those projecting to the substantia nigra pars reticulata (SNpr) were efficiently labeled by the CMV vector but poorly by the TetON vector. Numerous GFP-positive cells were evidenced in the subventricular zone with both vectors. However, in the olfactory bulb (OB), GFP-positive neurons were observed with the CMV vector but not the TetON vector. We conclude that the absence of significant amounts of transgene product in distant regions (SN and OB) constitutes a safety advantage of the AAV2/1-TetON vector for striatal gene therapy. Midbrain injections resulted in selective GFP expression in tyrosine hydroxylase-positive neurons by the TetON vector whereas with the CMV vector, GFP-positive cells covered a widespread area of the midbrain. The biodistribution of GFP protein corresponded to that of the transcripts and not of the viral genomes. We conclude that the rAAV2/1-TetON vector constitutes an interesting tool for specific transgene expression in midbrain dopaminergic neurons.

Basis set effects on the energy and hardness profiles of the hydrogen fluoride dimer

In earlier work, the present authors have shown that hardness profiles are less dependent on the level of calculation than energy profiles for potential energy surfaces (PESs) having pathological behaviors. At variance with energy profiles, hardness profiles always show the correct number of stationary points. This characteristic has been used to indicate the existence of spurious stationary points on the PESs. In the present work, we apply this methodology to the hydrogen fluoride dimer, a classical difficult case for the density functional theory methods

Focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy in biology.

Since the end of the last millennium, the focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy (FIB-SEM) has progressively found use in biological research. This instrument is a scanning electron microscope (SEM) with an attached gallium ion column and the 2 beams, electrons and ions (FIB) are focused on one coincident point. The main application is the acquisition of three-dimensional data, FIB-SEM tomography. With the ion beam, some nanometres of the surface are removed and the remaining block-face is imaged with the electron beam in a repetitive manner. The instrument can also be used to cut open biological structures to get access to internal structures or to prepare thin lamella for imaging by (cryo-) transmission electron microscopy. Here, we will present an overview of the development of FIB-SEM and discuss a few points about sample preparation and imaging.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Modelling of weather radar echoes from anomalous propagation using a hybrid parabolic equation method and NWP model data

Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.