Safeguarding rural Australia : addressing masculinity and violence in rural settings. Data report no. 5. Consequences of violence - juvenile offenders, long-term health consequences, anxiety and repression, other chronic disabilities

This report considers extant data which have been sourced with respect to some of the consequences of violent acts and incidents and risky behaviour for males living in regional and remote Australia . This has been collated and presented under the headings: juvenile offenders; long-term health consequences; anxiety and repression; and other chronic disabilities. Additional commentary resulting from exploration, examination and analyses of secondary data is published online in complementary reports in this series.

More than experiential learning or volunteering : a case study of community service learning within the Australian context

Community service learning is the integration of experiential learning and community service into coursework such that community needs are met and students gain both professional skills and a sense of civic responsibility. A critical component is student reflection. This paper provides an example of the application of community service learning within an undergraduate health unit at the Queensland University of Technology. Based on survey data from 36 program participants, it demonstrates the impact of CSL on student outcomes. Results show that students benefited by developing autonomy through real world experiences, through increased self-assurance and achievement of personal growth, through gaining new insights into the operations of community service organisations and through moving towards becoming responsible citizens. Students expect their CSL experience to have long-lasting impact on their lives, with two-thirds of participants noting that they would like to continue volunteering as part of their future development.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

A psychosocial approach to understanding young Australians' mobile phone behaviour

This thesis by publication contributes to our knowledge of psychological factors underlying a modern day phenomenon, young people’s mobile phone behaviour. Specifically, the thesis reports a PhD program of research which adopted a social psychological approach to explore mobile phone behaviour among young Australians aged between 15 and 24 years. A particular focus of the research program was to explore both the cognitive and behavioural aspects of young people’s mobile phone behaviour which for the purposes of this thesis is defined as mobile phone involvement. The research program comprised three separate stages which were developmental in nature, in that, the findings of each stage of the research program informed the next. The overarching goal of the program of research was to improve our understanding of the psychosocial factors influencing young people’s mobile phone behaviour. To achieve this overall goal, there were a number of aims to the research program which reflect the developmental nature of this thesis. Given the limited research into the mobile phone behaviour in Australia, the first two aims of the research program were to explore patterns of mobile phone behaviour among Australian youth and explore the social psychological factors relating to their mobile phone behaviour. Following this exploration, the research program sought to develop a measure which captures the cognitive and behavioural aspects of mobile phone behaviour. Finally, the research program aimed to examine and differentiate the psychosocial predictors of young people’s frequency of mobile phone use and their level of involvement with their mobile phone. Both qualitative and quantitative methodologies were used throughout the program of research. Five papers prepared during the three stages of the research program form the bulk of this thesis. The first stage of the research program was a qualitative investigation of young people’s mobile phone behaviour. Thirty-two young Australians participated in a series of focus groups in which they discussed their mobile phone behaviour. Thematic data analysis explored patterns of mobile phone behaviour among young people, developed an understanding of psychological factors influencing their use of mobile phones, and identified that symptoms of addiction were emerging in young people’s mobile phone behaviour. Two papers (Papers 1 and 2) emanated from this first stage of the research program. Paper 1 explored patterns of mobile phone behaviour and revealed that mobile phones were perceived as being highly beneficial to young people’s lives, with the ability to remain in constant contact with others being particularly valued. The paper also identified that symptoms of behavioural addiction including withdrawal, cognitive and behavioural salience, and loss of control, emerged in participants’ descriptions of their mobile phone behaviour. Paper 2 explored how young people’s need to belong and their social identity (two constructs previously unexplored in the context of mobile phone behaviour) related to their mobile phone behaviour. It was revealed that young people use their mobile phones to facilitate social attachments. Additionally, friends and peers influenced young people’s mobile phone behaviour; for example, their choice of mobile phone carrier and their most frequent type of mobile phone use. These papers laid the foundation for the further investigation of addictive patterns of behaviour and the role of social psychological factors on young people’s mobile behaviour throughout the research program. Stage 2 of the research program focussed on developing a new parsimonious measure of mobile phone behaviour, the Mobile Phone Involvement Questionnaire (MPIQ), which captured the cognitive and behavioural aspects of mobile phone use. Additionally, the stage included a preliminary exploration of factors influencing young people’s mobile phone behaviour. Participants (N = 946) completed a questionnaire which included a pool of items assessing symptoms of behavioural addiction, the uses and gratifications relating to mobile phone use, and self-identity and validation from others in the context of mobile phone behaviour. Two papers (Papers 3 & 4) emanated from the second stage of the research program. Paper 3 provided an important link between the qualitative and quantitative components of the research program. Qualitative data from Stage 1 indicated the reasons young people use their mobile phones and identified addictive characteristics present in young people’s mobile phone behaviour. Results of the quantitative study conducted in Stage 2 of the research program revealed the uses and gratifications relating to young people’s mobile phone behaviour and the effect of these gratifications on young people’s frequency of mobile phone use and three indicators of addiction, withdrawal, salience, and loss of control. Three major uses and gratifications: self (such as feeling good or as a fashion item), social (such as contacting friends), and security (such as use in an emergency) were found to underlie much of young people’s mobile phone behaviour. Self and social gratifications predicted young people’s frequency of mobile phone use and the three indicators of addiction but security gratifications did not. These results provided an important foundation for the inclusion of more specific psychosocial predictors in the later stages of the research program. Paper 4 reported the development of the mobile phone involvement questionnaire and a preliminary exploration of the effect of self-identity and validation from others on young people’s mobile phone behaviour. The MPIQ assessed a unitary construct and was a reliable measure amongst this cohort. Results found that self-identity influenced the frequency of young people’s use whereas self-identity and validation from others influenced their level of mobile phone involvement. These findings provided an important indication that, in addition to self factors, other people have a strong influence on young people’s involvement with their mobile phone and that mobile phone involvement is conceptually different to frequency of mobile phone use. Stage 3 of the research program empirically examined the psychosocial predictors of young people’s mobile behaviour and one paper, Paper 5, emanated from this stage. Young people (N = 292) from throughout Australia completed an online survey assessing the role of self-identity, ingroup norm, the need to belong, and self-esteem on their frequency of mobile phone use and their mobile phone involvement. Self-identity was the only psychosocial predictor of young people’s frequency of mobile phone use. In contrast, self-identity, ingroup norm, and need to belong all influenced young people’s level of involvement with their mobile phone. Additionally, the effect of self-esteem on young people’s mobile phone involvement was mediated by their need to belong. These results indicate that young people who perceive their mobile phone to be an integral part of their self-identity, who perceive that mobile phone is common amongst friends and peers, and who have a strong need for attachment to others, in some cases driven by a desire to enhance their self-esteem, are most likely to become highly involved with their mobile phones. Overall, this PhD program of research has provided an important contribution to our understanding of young Australians’ mobile phone behaviour. Results of the program have broadened our knowledge of factors influencing mobile phone behaviour beyond the approaches used in previous research. The use of various social psychological theories combined with a behavioural addiction framework provided a novel examination of young people’s mobile behaviour. In particular, the development of a new measure of mobile phone behaviour in the research program facilitated the differentiation of the psychosocial factors influencing frequency of young people’s mobile phone behaviour and their level of involvement with their mobile phone. Results of the research program indicate the important role that mobile phone behaviour plays in young people’s social development and also signals the characteristics of those people who may become highly involved with their mobile phone. Future research could build on this thesis by exploring whether mobile phones are affecting traditional social psychological processes and whether the results in this research program are generalisable to other cohorts and other communication technologies.

CTCombine : rotating and combining CT data with an accurate detector model, to simulate radiotherapy portal imaging at non-zero beam angles

Established Monte Carlo user codes BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc permit the accurate and straightforward simulation of radiotherapy experiments and treatments delivered from multiple beam angles. However, when an electronic portal imaging detector (EPID) is included in these simulations, treatment delivery from non-zero beam angles becomes problematic. This study introduces CTCombine, a purpose-built code for rotating selected CT data volumes, converting CT numbers to mass densities, combining the results with model EPIDs and writing output in a form which can easily be read and used by the dose calculation code DOSXYZnrc. The geometric and dosimetric accuracy of CTCombine’s output has been assessed by simulating simple and complex treatments applied to a rotated planar phantom and a rotated humanoid phantom and comparing the resulting virtual EPID images with the images acquired using experimental measurements and independent simulations of equivalent phantoms. It is expected that CTCombine will be useful for Monte Carlo studies of EPID dosimetry as well as other EPID imaging applications.

Measurement properties of the Australian Women's Activity Survey

Purpose: The Australian Women’s Activity Survey (AWAS) was developed based on a systematic review and qualitative research on how to measure activity patterns of women with young children (WYC). AWAS assesses activity performed across five domains (planned activities, employment, childcare, domestic responsibilities and transport), and intensity levels (sitting, light-intensity, brisk walking, moderate-intensity and vigorous-intensity) in a typical week in the past month. The purpose of this study was to assess the test-retest reliability and criterion validity of the AWAS. Methods: WYC completed the AWAS on two occasions 7-d apart (test-retest reliability protocol) and/or wore an MTI ActiGraph accelerometer for 7-d in between (validity protocol). Forty WYC (mean age 35 ± 5yrs) completed the test-retest reliability protocol and 75 WYC (mean age 33 ± 5yrs) completed the validity protocol. Interclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC) between AWAS administrations and Spearman’s Correlation Coefficients (rs) between AWAS and MTI data were calculated. Results: AWAS showed good test-retest reliability (ICC=0.80 (0.65-0.89)) and acceptable criterion validity (rs= 0.28, p=0.01) for measuring weekly health-enhancing physical activity. AWAS also provided repeatable and valid estimates of sitting time (test-retest reliability ICC=0.42 (0.13-0.64), and criterion validity (rs= 0.32, p=0.006)). Conclusion: The measurement properties of the AWAS are comparable to those reported for existing self-report measures of physical activity. However, AWAS offers a more comprehensive and flexible alternative for accurately assessing different domains and intensities of activity relevant to WYC. Future research should investigate whether the AWAS is a suitable measure of intervention efficacy by examining its sensitivity to change.

The nature and extent of policing alcohol related crime and reducing violence in and around late night entertainment areas

The misuse of alcohol is well documented in Australia and has been associated with disorders and harms that often require police attention. The extent of alcohol-related incidents requiring police attention has been recorded as substantial in some Australian cities (Arro, Crook, & Fenton, 1992; Davey & French, 1995; Ireland & Thommeny, 1993). A significant proportion of harmful drinking occurs in and around licensed premises (Jochelson, 1997; Stockwell, Masters, Phillips, Daly, Gahegan, Midford, & Philp, 1998; Borges, Cherpitel, & Rosovsky, 1998) and most of these incidents are not reported to police (Bryant & Williams, 2000; Lister, Hobbs, Hall, & Winlow, 2000). Alcohol-related incidents have also been found to be concentrated in certain places at certain times (Jochelson, 1997) and therefore manipulating the context in which these incidents occur may provide a means to prevent and reduce the harm associated with alcohol misuse. One of the major objectives of the present program of research was to investigate the occurrence and resource impact of alcohol-related incidents on operational (general duties) policing across a large geographical area. A second objective of the thesis was to examine the characteristics and temporal/spatial dynamics of police attended alcohol incidents in the context of Place Based theories of crime. It was envisaged that this approach would reveal the patterns of the most prevalent offences and demonstrate the relevance of Place Based theories of crime to understanding these patterns. In addition, the role of alcohol, time and place were also explored in order to examine the association between non criminal traffic offences and other types of criminal offences. A final objective of the thesis was to examine the impact of a situational crime prevention strategy that had been initiated to reduce the violence and disorder associated with late-night liquor trading premises. The program of research in this doctorate thesis has been undertaken through the presentation of published papers. The research was conducted in three stages which produced six manuscripts, five of which were submitted to peer reviewed journals and one that was published in a peer reviewed conference proceedings. Stage One included two studies (Studies 1 & 2) both of which involved a cross sectional approach to examine the prevalence and characteristics of alcohol-related incidents requiring police attendance across three large geographical areas that included metropolitan cities, provincial regions and rural areas. Stage Two of the program of research also comprised two cross sectional quantitative studies (Studies 3 & 4) that investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of the major offence categories attended by operational police in a specific Police District (Gold Coast). Stage Three of the program of research involved two studies (Studies 5 & 6) that assessed the effectiveness of a situational crime prevention strategy. The studies employed a pre-post design to assess the impact on crime, disorder and violence by preventing patrons from entering late-night liquor trading premises between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. (lockout policy). Although Study Five was solely quantitative in nature, Study Six included both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The approach adopted in Study Six, therefore facilitated not only a quantative comparison of the impact of the lockout policy on different policing areas, but also enabled the processes related to the implementation of the lockout policy to be examined. The thesis reports a program of research involving a common data collection method which then involved a series of studies being conducted to explore different aspects of the data. The data was collected from three sources. Firstly a pilot phase was undertaken to provide participants with training. Secondly a main study period was undertaken immediately following the pilot phase. The first and second sources of data were collected between 29th March 2004 and 2nd May 2004. Thirdly, additional data was collected between the 1st April 2005 and 31st May 2005. Participants in the current program of research were first response operational police officers who completed a modified activity log over a 9 week period (4 week pilot phase & 5 week survey study phase), identifying the type, prevalence and characteristics of alcohol-related incidents that were attended. During the study period police officers attended 31,090 alcohol-related incidents. Studies One and Two revealed that a substantial proportion of current police work involves attendance at alcohol-related incidents (i.e., 25% largely involving young males aged between 17 and 24 years). The most common incidents police attended were vehicle and/or traffic matters, disturbances and offences against property. The major category of offences most likely to involve alcohol included vehicle/traffic matters, disturbances and offences against the person (e.g., common & serious assaults). These events were most likely to occur in the late evenings and early hours of the morning on the weekends, and importantly, usually took longer for police to complete than non alcohol-related incidents. The findings in Studies Three and Four suggest that serious traffic offences, disturbances and offences against the person share similar characteristics and occur in concentrated places at similar times. In addition, it was found that time, place and incident type all have an influence on whether an incident attended by a police officer is alcohol-related. Alcohol-related incidents are more likely to occur in particular locations in the late evenings and early mornings on the weekends. In particular, there was a strong association between the occurrence of alcohol-related disturbances and alcohol-related serious traffic offences in regards to place and time. In general, stealing and property offences were not alcohol-related and occurred in daylight hours during weekdays. The results of Studies Five and Six were mixed. A number of alcohol-related offences requiring police attention were significantly reduced for some policing areas and for some types of offences following the implementation of the lockout policy. However, in some locations the lockout policy appeared to have a negative or minimal impact. Interviews with licensees revealed that although all were initially opposed to the lockout policy as they believed it would have a negative impact on business, most perceived some benefits from its introduction. Some of the benefits included, improved patron safety and the development of better business strategies to increase patron numbers. In conclusion, the overall findings of the six studies highlight the pervasive nature of alcohol across a range of criminal incidents, demonstrating the tremendous impact alcohol-related incidents have on police. The findings also demonstrate the importance of time and place in predicting the occurrence of alcohol-related offences. Although this program of research did not set out to test Place Based theories of crime, these theories were used to inform the interpretation of findings. The findings in the current research program provide evidence for the relevance of Place Based theories of crime to understanding the factors contributing to violence and disorder, and designing relevant crime prevention strategies. For instance, the results in Studies Five and Six provide supportive evidence that this novel lockout initiative can be beneficial for public safety by reducing some types of offences in particular areas in and around late-night liquor trading premises. Finally, intelligent-led policing initiatives based on problem oriented policing, such as the lockout policy examined in this thesis, have potential as a major crime prevention technique to reduce specific types of alcohol-related offences.

Internetalisation : the Internet's influence on international market growth in the firm's outward internationalisation process

It has been suggested that the Internet is the most significant driver of international trade in recent years to the extent that the term =internetalisation‘ has been coined (Bell, Deans, Ibbotson & Sinkovics, 2001; Buttriss & Wilkinson, 2003). This term is used to describe the Internet‘s affect on the internationalisation process of the firm. Consequently, researchers have argued that the internationalisation process of the firm has altered due to the Internet, hence is in need of further investigation. However, as there is limited research and understanding, ambiguity remains in how the Internet has influenced international market growth. Thus, the purpose of this study was to explore how the Internet influences firms‘ internationalisation process, specifically, international market growth. To this end, Internet marketing and international market growth theories are used to illuminate this ambiguity in the body of knowledge. Thus, the research problem =How and why does the Internet influence international market growth of the firm’ is justified for investigation. To explore the research question a two-stage approach is used. Firstly, twelve case studies were used to evaluate key concepts, generate hypotheses and to develop a model of Internetalisation for testing. The participants held key positions within their firm, so that rich data could be drawn from international market growth decision makers. Secondly, a quantitative confirmation process analysed the identified themes or constructs, using two hundred and twenty four valid responses. Constructs were evaluated through an exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling process. Structural equation modelling was used to test the model of =internetalisation‘ to examine the interrelationships between the internationalisation process components: information availability, information usage, interaction communication, international mindset, business relationship usage, psychic distance, the Internet intensity of the firm and international market growth. This study found that the Internet intensity of the firm mediates information availability, information usage, international mindset, and business relationships when firms grow in international markets. Therefore, these results provide empirical evidence that the Internet has a positive influence on international information, knowledge, entrepreneurship and networks and these in turn influence international market growth. The theoretical contributions are three fold. Firstly, the study identifies a holistic model of the impact the Internet has had on the outward internationalisation of the firm. This contribution extends the body of knowledge pertaining to Internet international marketing by mapping and confirming interrelationships between the Internet, internationalisation and growth concepts. Secondly, the study highlights the broad scope and accelerated rate of international market growth of firms. Evidence that the Internet influences the traditional and virtual networks for the pursuit of international market growth extends the current understanding. Thirdly, this study confirms that international information, knowledge, entrepreneurship and network concepts are valid in a single model. Thus, these three contributions identify constructs, measure constructs in a multi-item capacity, map interrelationships and confirm single holistic model of ‗internetalisation‘. The main practical contribution is that the findings identified information, knowledge and entrepreneurial opportunities for firms wishing to maximise international market growth. To capitalise on these opportunities suggestions are offered to assist firms to develop greater Internet intensity and internationalisation capabilities. From a policy perspective, educational institutions and government bodies need to promote more applied programs for Internet international marketing. The study provides future researchers with a platform of identified constructs and interrelationships related to internetalisation, with which to investigate. However, a single study has limitations of generalisability; thus, future research should replicate this study. Such replication or cross validation will assist in the verification of scales used in this research and enhance the validity of causal predications. Furthermore, this study was undertaken in the Australian outward-bound context. Research in other nations, as well as research into inbound internationalisation would be fruitful.

Malnutrition and pressure ulcer risk in adults in Australian health care facilities

Aims To determine the effect of nutritional status on the presence and severity of pressure ulcers in statewide? public healthcare facilities, in Queensland, Australia. Research Methods A multicentre, cross sectional audit of nutritional status of a convenience sample of subjects was carried out as part of a large audit of pressure ulcers in a sample of state based public healthcare facilities in 2002 and 2003. Dietitians in 20 hospitals and six residential aged care facilities conducted single day nutritional status audits of 2208 acute and 839 aged care subjects using the Subjective Global Assessment. The effect of nutritional status on the presence, highest stage and number of pressure ulcers was determined by logistic regression in a model controlling for age, gender, medical specialty and facility location. The potential clustering effect of facility was accounted for in the model using an analysis of correlated data approach. Results Subjects with malnutrition had an adjusted odds risk of 2.6 (95% CI 1.8-3.5, p<0.001) of having a pressure ulcer in acute facilities and 2.0 (95% CI 1.5-2.7, p<0.001) for residential aged care facilities. There was also increased odds risk of having a pressure ulcer, having a higher stage pressure ulcer and a higher number of pressure ulcers with increased severity of malnutrition. Conclusion Malnutrition was associated with at least twice the odds risk of having a pressure ulcer of in public healthcare facilities in Queensland. Action must be taken to identify, prevent and treat malnutrition, especially in patients at risk of pressure ulcer.

The development and validation of Australian indices of child development - Part II : validity support

The two outcome indices described in a companion paper (Sanson et al., Child Indicators Research, 2009) were developed using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). These indices, one for infants and the other for 4 year to 5 year old children, were designed to fill the need for parsimonious measures of children’s developmental status to be used in analyses by a broad range of data users and to guide government policy and interventions to support young children’s optimal development. This paper presents evidence from Wave 1data from LSAC to support the validity of these indices and their three domain scores of Physical, Social/Emotional, and Learning. Relationships between the indices and child, maternal, family, and neighborhood factors which are known to relate concurrently to child outcomes were examined. Meaningful associations were found with the selected variables, thereby demonstrating the usefulness of the outcome indices as tools for understanding children’s development in their family and socio-cultural contexts. It is concluded that the outcome indices are valuable tools for increasing understanding of influences on children’s development, and for guiding policy and practice to optimize children’s life chances.

The development and validation of Australian Indices of Child Development — Part I: conceptualisation and development

The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) is a major national study examining the lives of Australian children, using a cross-sequential cohort design and data from parents, children, and teachers for 5,107 infants (3–19 months) and 4,983 children (4–5 years). Its data are publicly accessible and are used by researchers from many disciplinary backgrounds. It contains multiple measures of children’s developmental outcomes as well as a broad range of information on the contexts of their lives. This paper reports on the development of summary outcome indices of child development using the LSAC data. The indices were developed to fill the need for indicators suitable for use by diverse data users in order to guide government policy and interventions which support young children’s optimal development. The concepts underpinning the indices and the methods of their development are presented. Two outcome indices (infant and child) were developed, each consisting of three domains—health and physical development, social and emotional functioning, and learning competency. A total of 16 measures are used to make up these three domains in the Outcome Index for the Child Cohort and six measures for the Infant Cohort. These measures are described and evidence supporting the structure of the domains and their underlying latent constructs is provided for both cohorts. The factorial structure of the Outcome Index is adequate for both cohorts, but was stronger for the child than infant cohort. It is concluded that the LSAC Outcome Index is a parsimonious measure representing the major components of development which is suitable for non-specialist data users. A companion paper (Sanson et al. 2010) presents evidence of the validity of the Index.

How well are Australian infants and children aged 4 to 5 years doing? Findings from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children Wave 1

This report presents an analysis of the data from the first wave of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) to explore the wellbeing of 5,107 children in the infant cohort of the study and the 4,983 children, aged 4 to 5 years, in the child cohort. Wave 1 of LSAC includes measures of multiple aspects of children’s early development. These developmental measures are summarised in the LSAC Outcome Index, a composite measure which includes an overall index as well as three separate domain scores, tapping physical development, social and emotional functioning, and learning and cognitive development.

Voter behaviour and constitutional change in Australia since 1967

Australian Constitutional referendums have been part of the Australian political system since federation. Up to the year 1999 (the time of the last referendum in Australia), constitutional change in Australia does not have a good history of acceptance. Since 1901, there have been 44 proposed constitutional changes with eight gaining the required acceptance according to section 128 of the Australian Constitution. In the modern era since 1967, there have been 20 proposals over seven referendum votes for a total of four changes. Over this same period, there have been 13 federal general elections which have realised change in government just five times. This research examines the electoral behaviour of Australian voters from 1967 to 1999 for each referendum. Party identification has long been a key indicator in general election voting. This research considers whether the dominant theory of voter behaviour in general elections (the Michigan Model) provides a plausible explanation for voting in Australian referendums. In order to explain electoral behaviour in each referendum, this research has utilised available data from the Australian Electoral Commission, the 1996 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data, and the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum Study. This data has provided the necessary variables required to measure the impact of the Michigan Model of voter behaviour. Measurements have been conducted using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Each referendum provides an overview of the events at the time of the referendum as well as the =yes‘ and =no‘ cases at the time each referendum was initiated. Results from this research provide support for the Michigan Model of voter behaviour in Australian referendum voting. This research concludes that party identification, as a key variable of the Michigan Model, shows that voters continue to take their cues for voting from the political party they identify with in Australian referendums. However, the outcome of Australian referendums clearly shows that partisanship is only one of a number of contributory factors in constitutional referendums.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

An ecological assessment of secondary poisoning risk in the Australian sugarcane industry

Rodenticide use in agriculture can lead to the secondary poisoning of avian predators. Currently the Australian sugarcane industry has two rodenticides, Racumin® and Rattoff®, available for in-crop use but, like many agricultural industries, it lacks an ecologically-based method of determining the potential secondary poisoning risk the use of these rodenticides poses to avian predators. The material presented in this thesis addresses this by: a. determining where predator/prey interactions take place in sugar producing districts; b. quantifying the amount of rodenticide available to avian predators and the probability of encounter; and c. developing a stochastic model that allows secondary poisoning risk under various rodenticide application scenarios to be investigated. Results demonstrate that predator/prey interactions are highly constrained by environmental structure. Rodents used crops that provided high levels of canopy cover and therefore predator protection and poorly utilised open canopy areas. In contrast, raptors over-utilised areas with low canopy cover and low rodent densities, but which provided high accessibility to prey. Given this pattern of habitat use, and that industry baiting protocols preclude rodenticide application in open canopy crops, these results indicate that secondary poisoning can only occur if poisoned rodents leave closed canopy crops and become available for predation in open canopy areas. Results further demonstrate that after in-crop rodenticide application, only a small proportion of rodents available in open areas are poisoned and that these rodents carry low levels of toxicant. Coupled with the low level of rodenticide use in the sugar industry, the high toxic threshold raptors have to these toxicants and the low probability of encountering poisoned rodents, results indicate that the risk of secondary poisoning events occurring is minimal. A stochastic model was developed to investigate the effect of manipulating factors that might influence secondary poisoning hazard in a sugarcane agro-ecosystem. These simulations further suggest that in all but extreme scenarios, the risk of secondary poisoning is also minimal. Collectively, these studies demonstrate that secondary poisoning of avian predators associated with the use of the currently available rodenticides in Australian sugar producing districts is minimal. Further, the ecologically-based method of assessing secondary poisoning risk developed in this thesis has broader applications in other agricultural systems where rodenticide use may pose risks to avian predators.