Nonviolent factors: Variables associated with ethnic violence, and factors which are associated with nonviolent response to grievances toward members of other ethnic groups

Ethnic violence appears to be the major source of violence in the world. Ethnic hostilities are potentially all-pervasive because most countries in the world are multi-ethnic. Public health's focus on violence documents its increasing role in this issue.^ The present study is based on a secondary analysis of a dataset of responses by 272 individuals from four ethnic groups (Anglo, African, Mexican, and Vietnamese Americans) who answered questions regarding variables related to ethnic violence from a general questionnaire which was distributed to ethnically diverse purposive, nonprobability, self-selected groups of individuals in Houston, Texas, in 1993.^ One goal was psychometric: learning about issues in analysis of datasets with modest numbers, comparison of two approaches to dealing with missing observations not missing at random (conducting analysis on two datasets), transformation analysis of continuous variables for logistic regression, and logistic regression diagnostics.^ Regarding the psychometric goal, it was concluded that measurement model analysis was not possible with a relatively small dataset with nonnormal variables, such as Likert-scaled variables; therefore, exploratory factor analysis was used. The two approaches to dealing with missing values resulted in comparable findings. Transformation analysis suggested that the continuous variables were in the correct scale, and diagnostics that the model fit was adequate.^ The substantive portion of the analysis included the testing of four hypotheses. Hypothesis One proposed that attitudes/efficacy regarding alternative approaches to resolving grievances from the general questionnaire represented underlying factors: nonpunitive social norms and strategies for addressing grievances--using the political system, organizing protests, using the system to punish offenders, and personal mediation. Evidence was found to support all but one factor, nonpunitive social norms.^ Hypothesis Two proposed that the factor variables and the other independent variables--jail, grievance, male, young, and membership in a particular ethnic group--were associated with (non)violence. Jail, grievance, and not using the political system to address grievances were associated with a greater likelihood of intergroup violence.^ No evidence was found to support Hypotheses Three and Four, which proposed that grievance and ethnic group membership would interact with other variables (i.e., age, gender, etc.) to produce variant levels of subgroup (non)violence.^ The generalizability of the results of this study are constrained by the purposive self-selected nature of the sample and small sample size (n = 272).^ Suggestions for future research include incorporating other possible variables or factors predictive of intergroup violence in models of the kind tested here, and the development and evaluation of interventions that promote electoral and nonelectoral political participation as means of reducing interethnic conflict. ^

Attitudes, stress and use of force in selected areas of Texas law enforcement

This research aimed to explore the extent to which police use of force was related to attitudes towards violence, agency type, and racism. Previous studies have found a culture of honor in the psychology of violence in the Southern United States. Were similar attitudes measurable among Texas professional line officers? Are there predictors of use of force?^ A self reported anonymous survey was administered to Texas patrol officers in the cities of Austin and Houston, and the Counties of Harris and Travis. A total of seventy-four questionnaires were used in the statistical analyses. Scales were developed measuring use of force, attitudes towards violence, and feelings on racism. Their relationship was examined.^ A regression model shows a strong and significant relationship between the officers' attitudes towards violence and the self-reported use of force. Further, agency type, municipal versus sheriff, also predicts use of force. Attitudes regarding race or racism, as measured by this study, were not predictive of use of force. ^

Trade-offs between voice and silence: a qualitative exploration of oncology staff's decisions to speak up about safety concerns

BACKGROUND Research suggests that "silence", i.e., not voicing safety concerns, is common among health care professionals (HCPs). Speaking up about patient safety is vital to avoid errors reaching the patient and thus to prevent harm and also to improve a culture of teamwork and safety. The aim of our study was to explore factors that affect oncology staff's decision to voice safety concerns or to remain silent and to describe the trade-offs they make. METHODS In a qualitative interview study with 32 doctors and nurses from 7 oncology units we investigated motivations and barriers to speaking up towards co-workers and supervisors. An inductive thematic content analysis framework was applied to the transcripts. Based on the individual experiences of participants, we conceptualize the choice to voice concerns and the trade-offs involved. RESULTS Preventing patients from serious harm constitutes a strong motivation to speaking up but competes with anticipated negative outcomes. Decisions whether and how to voice concerns involved complex considerations and trade-offs. Many respondents reflected on whether the level of risk for a patient "justifies" the costs of speaking up. Various barriers for voicing concerns were reported, e.g., damaging relationships. Contextual factors, such as the presence of patients and co-workers in the alarming situation, affect the likelihood of anticipated negative outcomes. Speaking up to well-known co-workers was described as considerably easier whereas "not knowing the actor well" increases risks and potential costs of speaking up. CONCLUSIONS While doctors and nurses felt strong obligation to prevent errors reaching individual patients, they were not engaged in voicing concerns beyond this immediacy. Our results offer in-depth insight into fears and conditions conducive of silence and voicing and can be used for educational interventions and leader reinforcement.

Search for the neutral Higgs bosons of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model in pp collisions at sqrts=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for neutral Higgs bosons of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) is reported. The analysis is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data were recorded in 2011 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb(-1) to 4.8 fb(-1). Higgs boson decays into oppositely-charged in muon or tau lepton pairs are considered for final states requiring either the presence or absence of b-jets. No statistically significant excess over the expected background is observed and exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are derived. The exclusion limits are for the production cross-section of a generic neutral Higgs boson, phi, as a function of the Higgs boson mass and for h/A/H production in the MSSM as a function of the parameters m(A) and tan beta in the m(h)(max) scenario for m(A) in the range of 90 GeV to 500 GeV.

Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Effects of geriatric clinical skills training on the attitudes of medical students.

BACKGROUND Physicians' attitudes, knowledge and skills are powerful determinants of quality of care for older patients. Previous studies found that using educational interventions to improve attitude is a difficult task. No previous study sought to determine if a skills-oriented educational intervention improved student attitudes towards elderly patients. METHODS This study evaluated the effect of a geriatric clinical skills training (CST) on attitudes of University of Bern medical students in their first year of clinical training. The geriatric CST consisted of four 2.5-hour teaching sessions that covered central domains of geriatric assessment (e.g., cognition, mobility), and a textbook used by students to self-prepare. Students' attitudes were the primary outcome, and were assessed with the 14-item University of California at Los Angeles Geriatrics Attitudes Scale (UCLA-GAS) in a quasi-randomized fashion, either before or after geriatric CST. RESULTS A total of 154 medical students participated. Students evaluated before the CST had a median UCLA-GAS overall scale of 49 (interquartile range 44-53). After the CST, the scores increased slightly, to 51 (interquartile range 47-54; median difference 2, 95% confidence interval 0-4, P = 0.062). Of the four validated UCLA-GAS subscales, only the resource distribution subscale was significantly higher in students evaluated after the geriatric CST (median difference 1, 95% confidence interval 0-2, P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS Teaching that targets specific skills may improve the attitudes of medical students towards elderly patients, though the improvement was slight. The addition of attitude-building elements may improve the effectiveness of future skills-oriented educational interventions.

Attitudes and Beliefs of Pig Farmers and Wild Boar Hunters Towards Reporting of African Swine Fever in Bulgaria, Germany and the Western Part of the Russian Federation

This study investigated the attitudes and beliefs of pig farmers and hunters in Germany, Bulgaria and the western part of the Russian Federation towards reporting suspected cases of African swine fever (ASF). Data were collected using a web-based questionnaire survey targeting pig farmers and hunters in these three study areas. Separate multivariable logistic regression models identified key variables associated with each of the three binary outcome variables whether or not farmers would immediately report suspected cases of ASF, whether or not hunters would submit samples from hunted wild boar for diagnostic testing and whether or not hunters would report wild boar carcasses. The results showed that farmers who would not immediately report suspected cases of ASF are more likely to believe that their reputation in the local community would be adversely affected if they were to report it, that they can control the outbreak themselves without the involvement of veterinary services and that laboratory confirmation would take too long. The modelling also indicated that hunters who did not usually submit samples of their harvested wild boar for ASF diagnosis, and hunters who did not report wild boar carcasses are more likely to justify their behaviour through a lack of awareness of the possibility of reporting. These findings emphasize the need to develop more effective communication strategies targeted at pig farmers and hunters about the disease, its epidemiology, consequences and control methods, to increase the likelihood of early reporting, especially in the Russian Federation where the virus circulates

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Appreciation of nature and appreciation of environmental protection: How stable are these attitudes and which comes first?

Introduction. – Attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection are two separate but correlated attitudes. Little is known about the two attitudes’ stability/volatility over time, despite the practical value of such knowledge. Objectives & method. – Using longitudinal survey data from 251 adults in a cross-lagged structural equation model, we assessed the degree of spontaneous (i.e., unprompted) change in the two attitudes. We also considered whether such change could provide evidence regarding causal direction; causation could go in either of two directions between the two attitudes, or it could even be bi-directional. Results. – We corroborated the substantive connection between attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection; however, the absence of change in the attitudes despite the passage of two years disallows reliable statements about causal direction. Conclusion. – It is possible to protect the environment by encouraging appreciation of nature, but change in attitude toward nature and attitude toward environmental protection may be difficult to achieve with mature individuals.

Range-based Weighted-likelihood Particle Filter for RSS-based Indoor Tracking

Attractive business cases in various application fields contribute to the sustained long-term interest in indoor localization and tracking by the research community. Location tracking is generally treated as a dynamic state estimation problem, consisting of two steps: (i) location estimation through measurement, and (ii) location prediction. For the estimation step, one of the most efficient and low-cost solutions is Received Signal Strength (RSS)-based ranging. However, various challenges - unrealistic propagation model, non-line of sight (NLOS), and multipath propagation - are yet to be addressed. Particle filters are a popular choice for dealing with the inherent non-linearities in both location measurements and motion dynamics. While such filters have been successfully applied to accurate, time-based ranging measurements, dealing with the more error-prone RSS based ranging is still challenging. In this work, we address the above issues with a novel, weighted likelihood, bootstrap particle filter for tracking via RSS-based ranging. Our filter weights the individual likelihoods from different anchor nodes exponentially, according to the ranging estimation. We also employ an improved propagation model for more accurate RSS-based ranging, which we suggested in recent work. We implemented and tested our algorithm in a passive localization system with IEEE 802.15.4 signals, showing that our proposed solution largely outperforms a traditional bootstrap particle filter.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Using the theory of planned behaviour to model antecedents of surgical checklist use: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND Compliance with surgical checklist use remains an obstacle in the context of checklist implementation programs. The theory of planned behaviour was applied to analyse attitudes, perceived behaviour control, and norms as psychological antecedents of individuals' intentions to use the checklist. METHODS A cross-sectional survey study with staff (N = 866) of 10 Swiss hospitals was conducted in German and French. Group mean differences between individuals with and without managerial function were computed. Structural equation modelling and confirmatory factor analysis was applied to investigate the structural relation between attitudes, perceived behaviour control, norms, and intentions. RESULTS Significant mean differences in favour of individuals with managerial function emerged for norms, perceived behavioural control, and intentions, but not for attitudes. Attitudes and perceived behavioural control had a significant direct effect on intentions whereas norms had not. CONCLUSIONS Individuals with managerial function exhibit stronger perceived behavioural control, stronger norms, and stronger intentions. This could be applied in facilitating checklist implementation. The structural model of the theory of planned behaviour remains stable across groups, indicating a valid model to describe antecedents of intentions in the context of surgical checklist implementation.

Biochemical MRI predicts hip osteoarthritis in an experimental ovine femoroacetabular impingement model

BACKGROUND Cam-type femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) resulting from an abnormal nonspherical femoral head shape leads to chondrolabral damage and is considered a cause of early osteoarthritis. A previously developed experimental ovine FAI model induces a cam-type impingement that results in localized chondrolabral damage, replicating the patterns found in the human hip. Biochemical MRI modalities such as T2 and T2* may allow for evaluation of the cartilage biochemistry long before cartilage loss occurs and, for that reason, may be a worthwhile avenue of inquiry. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked: (1) Does the histological grading of degenerated cartilage correlate with T2 or T2* values in this ovine FAI model? (2) How accurately can zones of degenerated cartilage be predicted with T2 or T2* MRI in this model? METHODS A cam-type FAI was induced in eight Swiss alpine sheep by performing a closing wedge intertrochanteric varus osteotomy. After ambulation of 10 to 14 weeks, the sheep were euthanized and a 3-T MRI of the hip was performed. T2 and T2* values were measured at six locations on the acetabulum and compared with the histological damage pattern using the Mankin score. This is an established histological scoring system to quantify cartilage degeneration. Both T2 and T2* values are determined by cartilage water content and its collagen fiber network. Of those, the T2* mapping is a more modern sequence with technical advantages (eg, shorter acquisition time). Correlation of the Mankin score and the T2 and T2* values, respectively, was evaluated using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. We used a hierarchical cluster analysis to calculate the positive and negative predictive values of T2 and T2* to predict advanced cartilage degeneration (Mankin ≥ 3). RESULTS We found a negative correlation between the Mankin score and both the T2 (p < 0.001, r = -0.79) and T2* values (p < 0.001, r = -0.90). For the T2 MRI technique, we found a positive predictive value of 100% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79%-100%) and a negative predictive value of 84% (95% CI, 67%-95%). For the T2* technique, we found a positive predictive value of 100% (95% CI, 79%-100%) and a negative predictive value of 94% (95% CI, 79%-99%). CONCLUSIONS T2 and T2* MRI modalities can reliably detect early cartilage degeneration in the experimental ovine FAI model. CLINICAL RELEVANCE T2 and T2* MRI modalities have the potential to allow for monitoring the natural course of osteoarthrosis noninvasively and to evaluate the results of surgical treatments targeted to joint preservation.

Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.