914 resultados para Application of Data-driven Modelling in Water Sciences


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Distributions sensitive to the underlying event in QCD jet events have been measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, based on 37 pb−1 of proton–proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. Chargedparticle mean pT and densities of all-particle ET and chargedparticle multiplicity and pT have been measured in regions azimuthally transverse to the hardest jet in each event. These are presented both as one-dimensional distributions and with their mean values as functions of the leading-jet transverse momentum from 20 to 800 GeV. The correlation of chargedparticle mean pT with charged-particle multiplicity is also studied, and the ET densities include the forward rapidity region; these features provide extra data constraints for Monte Carlo modelling of colour reconnection and beamremnant effects respectively. For the first time, underlying event observables have been computed separately for inclusive jet and exclusive dijet event selections, allowing more detailed study of the interplay of multiple partonic scattering and QCD radiation contributions to the underlying event. Comparisonsto the predictions of different Monte Carlo models show a need for further model tuning, but the standard approach is found to generally reproduce the features of the underlying event in both types of event selection.

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Pressure–Temperature–time (P–T–t) estimates of the syn-kinematic strain at the peak-pressure conditions reached during shallow underthrusting of the Briançonnais Zone in the Alpine subduction zone was made by thermodynamic modelling and 40Ar/39Ar dating in the Plan-de-Phasy unit (SE of the Pelvoux Massif, Western Alps). The dated phengite minerals crystallized syn-kinematically in a shear zone indicating top-to-the-N motion. By combining X-ray mapping with multi-equilibrium calculations, we estimate the phengite crystallization conditions at 270 ± 50 °C and 8.1 ± 2 kbar at an age of 45.9 ± 1.1 Ma. Combining this P–T–t estimate with data from the literature allows us to constrain the timing and geometry of Alpine continental subduction. We propose that the Briançonnais units were scalped on top of the slab during ongoing continental subduction and exhumed continuously until collision.

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The concentrations of the long-lived nuclear reaction products 129I and 36Cl have been measured in samples from the MEGAPIE liquid metal spallation target. Samples from the bulk target material (lead-bismuth eutectic, LBE), from the interface of the metal free surface with the cover gas, from LBE/steel interfaces and from noble metal absorber foils installed in the cover gas system were analysed using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry at the Laboratory of Ion beam Physics at ETH Zürich. The major part of 129I and 36Cl was found accumulated on the interfaces, particularly at the interface of LBE and the steel walls of the target container, while bulk LBE samples contain only a minor fraction of these nuclides. Both nuclides were also detected on the absorber foils to a certain extent (≪ 1% of the total amount). The latter number is negligible concerning the radio-hazard of the irradiated target material; however it indicates a certain affinity of the absorber foils for halogens, thus proving the principle of using noble metal foils for catching these volatile radionuclides. The total amounts of 129I and 36Cl in the target were estimated from the analytical data by averaging within the different groups of samples and summing up these averages over the total target. This estimation could account for about half of the amount of 129I and 36Cl predicted to be produced using nuclear physics modelling codes for both nuclides. The significance of the results and the associated uncertainties are discussed.

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Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

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Owing to the demand for genuine mozzarella, some 330 water buffaloes are being slaughtered every year in Switzerland albeit a stunning procedure meeting animal welfare and occupational safety requirements remains to be established. To provide a basis for improvements, we sized anatomical specifics in water buffaloes and cattle and we assessed brain lesions after stunning with captive bolts or handguns by diagnostic imaging. In water buffaloes and cattle, the median distance from the frontal skin surface to the inner bone table was 74.0 mm (56.0–100.0 mm) vs 36.6 mm (29.3–44.3 mm) and from skin to the thalamus 144.8 mm (117.1–172.0 mm) vs 102.0 (101.0–121.0 mm), respectively. Consequently, customary captive bolt stunners may be inadequate. Free bullets are potentially suitable for stunning buffaloes but involve occupational safety hazards. The results of the present study shall be used to develop a device allowing effective and safe stunning of water buffaloes.

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Environmental quality monitoring of water resources is challenged with providing the basis for safeguarding the environment against adverse biological effects of anthropogenic chemical contamination from diffuse and point sources. While current regulatory efforts focus on monitoring and assessing a few legacy chemicals, many more anthropogenic chemicals can be detected simultaneously in our aquatic resources. However, exposure to chemical mixtures does not necessarily translate into adverse biological effects nor clearly shows whether mitigation measures are needed. Thus, the question which mixtures are present and which have associated combined effects becomes central for defining adequate monitoring and assessment strategies. Here we describe the vision of the international, EU-funded project SOLUTIONS, where three routes are explored to link the occurrence of chemical mixtures at specific sites to the assessment of adverse biological combination effects. First of all, multi-residue target and non-target screening techniques covering a broader range of anticipated chemicals co-occurring in the environment are being developed. By improving sensitivity and detection limits for known bioactive compounds of concern, new analytical chemistry data for multiple components can be obtained and used to characterise priority mixtures. This information on chemical occurrence will be used to predict mixture toxicity and to derive combined effect estimates suitable for advancing environmental quality standards. Secondly, bioanalytical tools will be explored to provide aggregate bioactivity measures integrating all components that produce common (adverse) outcomes even for mixtures of varying compositions. The ambition is to provide comprehensive arrays of effect-based tools and trait-based field observations that link multiple chemical exposures to various environmental protection goals more directly and to provide improved in situ observations for impact assessment of mixtures. Thirdly, effect-directed analysis (EDA) will be applied to identify major drivers of mixture toxicity. Refinements of EDA include the use of statistical approaches with monitoring information for guidance of experimental EDA studies. These three approaches will be explored using case studies at the Danube and Rhine river basins as well as rivers of the Iberian Peninsula. The synthesis of findings will be organised to provide guidance for future solution-oriented environmental monitoring and explore more systematic ways to assess mixture exposures and combination effects in future water quality monitoring.

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68 lakes (63 Swiss, 2 French and 3 Italian) located in an altitudinal range between 334 and 2339m spanning a wide range of land-use have been investigated. The aim of the study was to discuss influences of geographic location, vegetation and land-use in the catchment area on the water and sediment chemistry of small lakes. Detailed quantitative description of land-use, vegetation, and climate in the watershed of all lakes was established. Surface and bottom water samples collected from each lake were analyzed for major ions and nutrients. Correlations were interpreted using linear regression analysis. Chemical parameters of water and sediment reflect the characteristics of the catchment areas. All lakes were alkaline since they were situated on calcareous bedrock. Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus strongly increase with increasing agricultural land-use. Na and K, however, are positively correlated with the amount of urbanization within the catchment area. These elements as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), Mg, Ca, and alkalinity, increase when the catchment is urbanized or used for agriculture. Total nitrogen and organic carbon in the sediments decrease distinctly if large parts of the catchment consist of bare land. No correlations between sediment composition and maximum water depth or altitude of the lakes were found.¶Striking differences in the water compositions of lakes above and below approximately 700 m of altitude were observed. Concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate, total phosphorus, DOC, Na, K, Mg, Ca, and alkalinity are distinctly higher in most lakes below 700 m than above, and the pH of the bottom waters of these lakes is generally lower. Estimates of total nitrogen concentrations, even in remote areas, indicate that precipitation is responsible for increased background concentrations. At lower altitudes nitrogen concentrations in lakes is explained by the nitrogen loaded rain from urban areas deposited on the catchment, and with high percentages of agricultural land-use in the watershed.

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A problem frequently encountered in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is that the total number of inputs and outputs included tend to be too many relative to the sample size. One way to counter this problem is to combine several inputs (or outputs) into (meaningful) aggregate variables reducing thereby the dimension of the input (or output) vector. A direct effect of input aggregation is to reduce the number of constraints. This, in its turn, alters the optimal value of the objective function. In this paper, we show how a statistical test proposed by Banker (1993) may be applied to test the validity of a specific way of aggregating several inputs. An empirical application using data from Indian manufacturing for the year 2002-03 is included as an example of the proposed test.

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This dissertation investigated perspectives on cultural competence among African-American women patients, staff, and the administrator of a dental clinic serving people living with HIV/AIDS; and evaluated the role of the National Standards for Culturally and Linguistically Appropriate Services in Health Care (CLAS) in advancing the provision of culturally competent care in the clinic. ^ The study was qualitative with data collection via focus groups and individual interviews with a sample of African-American women patients, and individual interviews with a sample of staff and the clinic administrator. Transcripts were coded and themes identified using the software program ATLAS.ti. A cultural audit template was developed and applied to evaluate cultural competency. ^ Among attitudes and behaviors that contributed to the provision of culturally competent care at the clinic were respect and empathic communication. Formal cultural competency was not featured strongly in the methods by which the staff learned to work with diverse populations. Instead cultural competence among the staff was based on thoughtful hiring practices, natural aptitude and a climate that encouraged learning through informal sharing of experiences. The staff and administrator felt that an African-American dentist would be an asset in improving culturally competent care at the clinic. Previous research and national policy also promote the provider-patient racial/ethnic concordance to improve care. In this study, however, the patients were happy with the care provided regardless of the race/ethnicity of the staff, probably reflecting the well developed cultural competence skills of clinic staff overall. ^ The clinic administrator was unaware of the CLAS standards although the clinic was implicitly operated under their mandates. This occurred because the clinic is supported by federal funding and the CLAS standards were incorporated into the requirements. Incorporation into and monitoring of the CLAS standards in federally funded programs therefore appears to be an effective means for ensuring that they are implemented. ^ This study illustrates that cultural competence, though not universally understood, can be systematically investigated to identify what constitutes appropriate care and the factors that support or inhibit it. Among important elements of culturally competent care are respect and empathic communication. ^

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Health departments, research institutions, policy-makers, and healthcare providers are often interested in knowing the health status of their clients/constituents. Without the resources, financially or administratively, to go out into the community and conduct health assessments directly, these entities frequently rely on data from population-based surveys to supply the information they need. Unfortunately, these surveys are ill-equipped for the job due to sample size and privacy concerns. Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have excellent potential in such circumstances, but have been underutilized in public health due to lack of awareness and confidence in applying its methods. The goal of this research is to make model-based SAE accessible to a broad readership using clear, example-based learning. Specifically, we applied the principles of multilevel, unit-level SAE to describe the geographic distribution of HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas.^ Multilevel (3 level: individual, county, public health region) random-intercept logit models of HPV vaccination (receipt of ≥ 1 dose Gardasil® ) were fit to data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (outcome and level 1 covariates) and a number of secondary sources (group-level covariates). Sampling weights were scaled (level 1) or constructed (levels 2 & 3), and incorporated at every level. Using the regression coefficients (and standard errors) from the final models, I simulated 10,000 datasets for each regression coefficient from the normal distribution and applied them to the logit model to estimate HPV vaccine coverage in each county and respective demographic subgroup. For simplicity, I only provide coverage estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) for counties.^ County-level coverage among females aged 11-17 varied from 6.8-29.0%. For females aged 18-26, coverage varied from 1.9%-23.8%. Aggregated to the state level, these values translate to indirect state estimates of 15.5% and 11.4%, respectively; both of which fall within the confidence intervals for the direct estimates of HPV vaccine coverage in Texas (Females 11-17: 17.7%, 95% CI: 13.6, 21.9; Females 18-26: 12.0%, 95% CI: 6.2, 17.7).^ Small area estimation has great potential for informing policy, program development and evaluation, and the provision of health services. Harnessing the flexibility of multilevel, unit-level SAE to estimate HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas counties, I have provided (1) practical guidance on how to conceptualize and conduct modelbased SAE, (2) a robust framework that can be applied to other health outcomes or geographic levels of aggregation, and (3) HPV vaccine coverage data that may inform the development of health education programs, the provision of health services, the planning of additional research studies, and the creation of local health policies.^

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A simple and inexpensive method is described for analysis of uranium (U) activity and mass in water by liquid scintillation counting using $\alpha$/$\beta$ discrimination. This method appears to offer a solution to the need for an inexpensive protocol for monitoring U activity and mass simultaneously and an alternative to the potential inaccuracy involved when depending on the mass-to-activity conversion factor or activity screen.^ U is extracted virtually quantitatively into 20 ml extractive scintillator from a 1-$\ell$ aliquot of water acidified to less than pH 2. After phase separation, the sample is counted for a 20-minute screening count with a minimum detection level of 0.27 pCi $\ell\sp{-1}$. $\alpha$-particle emissions from the extracted U are counted with close to 100% efficiency with a Beckman LS6000 LL liquid scintillation counter equipped with pulse-shape discrimination electronics. Samples with activities higher than 10 pCi $\ell\sp-1$ are recounted for 500-1000 minutes for isotopic analysis. Isotopic analysis uses events that are automatically stored in spectral files and transferred to a computer during assay. The data can be transferred to a commercially available spreadsheet and retrieved for examination or data manipulation. Values for three readily observable spectral features can be rapidly identified by data examination and substituted into a simple formula to obtain $\sp{234}$U/$\sp{238}$U ratio for most samples. U mass is calculated by substituting the isotopic ratio value into a simple equation.^ The utility of this method for the proposed compliance monitoring of U in public drinking water supplies was field tested with a survey of drinking water from Texas supplies that had previously been known to contain elevated levels of gross $\alpha$ activity. U concentrations in 32 samples from 27 drinking water supplies ranged from 0.26 to 65.5 pCi $\ell\sp{-1}$, with seven samples exceeding the proposed Maximum Contaminant Level of 20 $\mu$g $\ell\sp{-1}$. Four exceeded the proposed activity screening level of 30 pCi $\ell\sp{-1}$. Isotopic ratios ranged from 0.87 to 41.8, while one sample contained $\sp{234}$U activity of 34.6 pCi $\ell\sp{-1}$ in the complete absence of its parent, $\sp{238}$U. U mass in the samples with elevated activity ranged from 0.0 to 103 $\mu$g $\ell\sp{-1}$. A limited test of screening surface and groundwaters for contamination by U from waste sites and natural processes was also successful. ^

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In the midst of health care reform, and as health care organizations reorganize to provide more cost-effective healthcare, the population is being shifted into new healthcare delivery systems such as health insurance purchasing alliances, and health maintenance organizations. These new models of delivery are usually organized within resource restricted and data limited environments. Health care planners are faced with the challenge of identifying priorities for preventive and primary care services within these newly organized populations (Medicare HMO, Medicaid HMO, etc.). The author proposes a technique usually employed in epidemiology--attributable risk estimation--as a planning methodology to establish preventive health priorities within newly organized populations. Illustrations of the methodology are provided utilizing the Texas 1992 population. ^

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Biodegradability is a desirable, if not a necessary characteristic of pesticides. Carbaryl, as Sevin, is one of the more widely used insecticides for the control of agricultural pests and has been reported to be readily degraded by microorganisms. Because of its broad application, the concentration of Sevin in surface waters has been reported to reach nearly four parts per million (PPM) in surface waters, where it has been reported to affect the growth and metabolic rates of aquatic bacterial populations. Following these reports, it is of public health importance to determine the effects of this insecticide on the growth and metabolic rates of bacteria used to indicate water pollution, and on pathogenic organisms which are found in polluted water.^ This study was conducted to determine the effect of carbaryl on the growth and metabolic rates of indicator and pathogenic organisms. Escherichia coli and Streptococcus faecalis were used as indicators, while Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella typhimurium were the pathogens studied. Pure and mixed cultures of these organisms were exposed to two concentrations of carbaryl (Sevin).^ The study demonstrated that the fecal pollution indicator organisms, E. coli and S. faecalis respond differently to the presence of small concentrations of carbaryl in water as do the two pathogens tested, (S. typhimurium and S. aureus). The growth of all test organisms as measured by spread plate counts, was reduced by the presence of either one mg/l or five mg/l carbaryl within a period of eight days. Survival of the organisms in the presence of five mg/l carbaryl varied dependent upon whether the organism was in pure or mixed culture. In the presence of five mg/l carbaryl, both pure and mixed culture of E. coli showed longer survival. S. faecalis survived for more than eight days in pure culture, neither S. typhimurium nor S. aureus survived for eight days in pure culture.^ The metabolic rate of S. faecalis and S. aureus was reduced by both five mg/l and one mg/l Sevin concentrations, contrary to E. coli and S. typhimurium which had reduced metabolic rate with the introduction of five mg/l Sevin but showed an increase in the metabolic rate with one mg/l Sevin. There was no difference between the test and control when mixed populations were exposed to five mg/l Sevin and the metabolic rate tested. A mixture of E. coli and S. typhimurium populations showed a respiration increase over the control when exposed to one mg/l Sevin concentration. If similar effects occur in polluted surface waters, misleading results from bacteriological water quality testing may occur. ^

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Path analysis has been applied to components of the iron metabolic system with the intent of suggesting an integrated procedure for better evaluating iron nutritional status at the community level. The primary variables of interest in this study were (1) iron stores, (2) total iron-binding capacity, (3) serum ferritin, (4) serum iron, (5) transferrin saturation, and (6) hemoglobin concentration. Correlation coefficients for relationships among these variables were obtained from published literature and postulated in a series of models using measures of those variables that are feasible to include in a community nutritional survey. Models were built upon known information about the metabolism of iron and were limited by what had been reported in the literature in terms of correlation coefficients or quantitative relationships. Data were pooled from various studies and correlations of the same bivariate relationships were averaged after z- transformations. Correlation matrices were then constructed by transforming the average values back into correlation coefficients. The results of path analysis in this study indicate that hemoglobin is not a good indicator of early iron deficiency. It does not account for variance in iron stores. On the other hand, 91% of the variance in iron stores is explained by serum ferritin and total iron-binding capacity. In addition, the magnitude of the path coefficient (.78) of the serum ferritin-iron stores relationship signifies that serum ferritin is the most important predictor of iron stores in the proposed model. Finally, drawing upon known relations among variables and the amount of variance explained in path models, it is suggested that the following blood measures should be made in assessing community iron deficiency: (1) serum ferritin, (2) total iron-binding capacity, (3) serum iron, (4) transferrin saturation, and (5) hemoglobin concentration. These measures (with acceptable ranges and cut-off points) could make possible the complete evaluation of all three stages of iron deficiency in those persons surveyed at the community level. ^

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The overarching goal of the Pathway Semantics Algorithm (PSA) is to improve the in silico identification of clinically useful hypotheses about molecular patterns in disease progression. By framing biomedical questions within a variety of matrix representations, PSA has the flexibility to analyze combined quantitative and qualitative data over a wide range of stratifications. The resulting hypothetical answers can then move to in vitro and in vivo verification, research assay optimization, clinical validation, and commercialization. Herein PSA is shown to generate novel hypotheses about the significant biological pathways in two disease domains: shock / trauma and hemophilia A, and validated experimentally in the latter. The PSA matrix algebra approach identified differential molecular patterns in biological networks over time and outcome that would not be easily found through direct assays, literature or database searches. In this dissertation, Chapter 1 provides a broad overview of the background and motivation for the study, followed by Chapter 2 with a literature review of relevant computational methods. Chapters 3 and 4 describe PSA for node and edge analysis respectively, and apply the method to disease progression in shock / trauma. Chapter 5 demonstrates the application of PSA to hemophilia A and the validation with experimental results. The work is summarized in Chapter 6, followed by extensive references and an Appendix with additional material.