Too many presidents "spoil the broth"?- What role for the European Commission in global climate change politics?

The European Union is the only supranational organisation to have both implemented ‘domestic’ climate change policy and provided leadership for the international community on adaptation and mitigation measures. Although the competence for action in climate change is shared between the national governments and the supranational level of the European Union, on behalf of the EU the European Commission has played a prominent role in international climate change negotiations. The Lisbon Treaty (in force December 2009) brought a number of changes to the institutional framework of the European Union, most significantly to the European Council and the external role of the EU. These changes appear to have added to the complexity which surrounds issues of the external representation of the EU and not simplified them – are there too many ‘Presidents’ of these institutions vying for a role? This paper questions the extent to which these changes will impact on the Commission headed by Jose Manuel Barroso, Barroso II Commission (2009-2014), particularly on Barroso’s ability to provide leadership on ‘domestic’ climate change policy and hence direction to the approach which the EU takes in global climate change politics.

Role of climate on barn owls road-kill likelihood and the effect on population viability in future climate change

Roads represent a new source of mortality due to animal-vehicle risk of collision threatening log-term populations’ viability. Risk of road-kill depends on species sensitivity to roads and their specific life-history traits. The risk of road mortality for each species depends on the characteristics of roads and bioecological characteristics of the species. In this study we intend to know the importance of climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) together with traffic and life history traits and understand the role of drought in barn owl population viability, also affected by road mortality in three scenarios: high mobility, high population density and the combination of previous scenarios (mixed) (Manuscript). For the first objective we correlated the several parameters (climate, traffic and life history traits). We used the most correlated variables to build a predictive mixed model (GLMM) the influence of the same. Using a population model we evaluated barn owl population viability in all three scenarios. Model revealed precipitation, traffic and dispersal have negative relationship with road-kills, although the relationship was not significant. Scenarios showed different results, high mobility scenario showed greater population depletion, more fluctuations over time and greater risk of extinction. High population density scenario showed a more stable population with lower risk of extinction and mixed scenario showed similar results as first scenario. Climate seems to play an indirect role on barn owl road-kills, it may influence prey availability which influences barn owl reproductive success and activity. Also, high mobility scenario showed a greater negative impact on viability of populations which may affect their ability and resilience to other stochastic events. Future research should take in account climate and how it may influence species life cycles and activity periods for a more complete approach of road-kills. Also it is important to make the best mitigation decisions which might include improving prey quality habitat.

Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: Moving from theory to practical decision-support

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.

Ambient Air Quality Monitoring in Metropolitan City of Lagos, Nigeria

Twenty one sampling locations were assessed for carbon monoxide (CO), carbondioxide (CO2), oxygen (O2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxide (NO), suspended particulate matter (SPM) and noise level using air pollutants measurement methods approved by ASTM for each specific parameter. All equipments and meters were all properly pre-calibrated before each usage for quality assurance. Findings of the study showed that measured levels of noise (61.4 - 101.4 dBA), NO (0.0 - 3.0 ppm), NO2 (0.0 - 3.0 ppm), CO (1.0 – 42.0 ppm) and SPM (0.14 – 4.82 ppm) in all sampling areas were quite high and above regulatory limits however there was no significant difference except in SPM (at all the sampling points), and noise, NO2 and NO (only in major traffic intersection). Air quality index (AQI) indicates that the ambient air can be described as poor for SPM, varied from good to very poor for CO, while NO and NO2 are very good except at major traffic intersection where they were both poor and very poor (D-E). The results suggest that strict and appropriate vehicle emission management, industrial air pollution control coupled with close burning management of wastes should be considered in the study area to reduce the risks associated with these pollutants.

Resilience to Climate Change: An Ethnographic Approach

Global projections for climate change impacts produce a startling picture of the future for low-lying coastal communities. The United States’ Chesapeake Bay region and especially marginalized and rural communities will be severely impacted by sea level rise and other changes over the next one hundred years. The concept of resilience has been theorized as a measure of social-ecological system health and as a unifying framework under which people can work together towards climate change adaptation. But it has also been critiqued for the way in which it does not adequately take into account local perspective and experiences, bringing into question the value of this concept as a tool for local communities. We must be sure that the concerns, weaknesses, and strengths of particular local communities are part of the climate change adaptation, decision-making, and planning process in which communities participate. An example of this type of planning process is the Deal Island Marsh and Community Project (DIMCP), a grant funded initiative to build resilience within marsh ecosystems and communities of the Deal Island Peninsula area of Maryland (USA) to environmental and social impacts from climate change. I argue it is important to have well-developed understandings of vulnerabilities and resiliencies identified by local residents and others to accomplish this type of work. This dissertation explores vulnerability and resilience to climate change using an engaged and ethnographic anthropological perspective. Utilizing participant observation, semi-structured and structured interviews, text analysis, and cultural domain analysis I produce an in-depth perspective of what vulnerability and resilience means to the DIMCP stakeholder network. Findings highlight significant vulnerabilities and resiliencies inherent in the local area and how these interface with additional vulnerabilities and resiliencies seen from a nonlocal perspective. I conclude that vulnerability and resilience are highly dynamic and context-specific for the local community. Vulnerabilities relate to climate change and other social and environmental changes. Resilience is a long-standing way of life, not a new concept related specifically to climate change. This ethnographic insight into vulnerability and resilience provides a basis for stronger engagement in collaboration and planning for the future.

Theory and language of climate change communication

Climate change communication has become a salient topic in science and society. It has grown to be something like a booming industry alongside more established ‘communication enterprises’, such as health communication, risk communication, and science communication. This article situates the theory of climate change communication within theoretical developments in the field of science communication. It discusses the importance and difficulties inherent in talking about climate change to different types of publics using various types of communication tools and strategies. It engages with the difficult issue of the relationship between climate change communication and behavior change, and it focuses, in particular, on the role of language (metaphors, words, strategies, frames, and narratives) in conveying climate change issues to stakeholders. In the process, it attempts to provide an overview of emerging theories of climate change communication, theories that recently have begun to proliferate quite dramatically. In some cases, we can, therefore only provide signposts to the most relevant research that is being carried out with regard to climate change communication without being able to engage with all its aspects. We end with an assessment of how communication could be improved in light of the theories and practices discussed in this article.

The Potential of Tariff Policy for Climate Change Mitigation: Legal and Economic Analysis

This paper addresses a potential role that tariffs and tariff policy can play in encouraging countries to take part in a multilateral effort to mitigate climate change. It begins by assessing whether increasing tariffs on products from energy intensive or polluting industries amounts to a violation of WTO rules and whether protectionism in this case can be differentiated from genuine environmental concerns. It then argues that while lowering tariffs for environmental goods can serve as a carrot to promote dissemination of cleaner technologies, tariff deconsolidation is a legitimate stick to encourage polluting countries to move towards an international climate agreement. The paper further explores this view by undertaking a partialequilibrium simulation analysis to examine the impact of a unilateral unit increase in tariffs on the imports of the most carbon-intensive products from countries not committed to climate polices. Our results suggest that the committed importing countries would have to raise their tariffs only slightly to effect a significant decline in the imports of these products from the non-committed countries. For instance, a unit increase in the simple average applied tariffs on the imports of these carbon-intensive products in 2005 from our sample of non-committed exporting countries would reduce the imports of these products by an average 32.6% in Australia, 178% in Canada, 195% in the EU, 271% in Japan and 62% in the US, therebysuggesting the effectiveness of such a measure in pushing countries towards a global climate policy.

Impacts of climate change and species distribution modelling: future scenarios to endangered species in South Brazil.

Earth climate has changed significantly in the last century and the different models indicate that it will continue to change over the next decades, even if the emission of greenhouse gases stop immediately. These changes have impact on different plant populations, as well as in the actual distribution of several species. As plants, in general, have a smaller capacity of dispersion compared with the animals it is likely that they will suffer the impacts of the climate change more intensively.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUNGAL COMMUNITIES ON THE DECOMPOSITION OF WOOD-DERIVED CARBON IN FOREST SOILS

Soils are the largest sinks of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Soil organic carbon is important for ecosystem balance as it supplies plants with nutrients, maintains soil structure, and helps control the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. The processes in which wood carbon is stabilized and destabilized in forest soils is still not understood completely. This study attempts to measure early wood decomposition by different fungal communities (inoculation with pure colonies of brown or white rot, or the original microbial community) under various interacting treatments: wood quality (wood from +CO2, +CO2+O3, or ambient atmosphere Aspen-FACE treatments from Rhinelander, WI), temperature (ambient or warmed), soil texture (loamy or sandy textured soil), and wood location (plot surface or buried 15cm below surface). Control plots with no wood chips added were also monitored throughout the study. By using isotopically-labelled wood chips from the Aspen-FACE experiment, we are able to track wood-derived carbon losses as soil CO2 efflux and as leached dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We analyzed soil water for chemical characteristics such as, total phenolics, SUVA254, humification, and molecular size. Wood chip samples were also analyzed for their proportion of lignin:carbohydrates using FTIR analysis at three time intervals throughout 12 months of decomposition. After two years of measurements, the average total soil CO2 efflux rates were significantly different depending on wood location, temperature, and wood quality. The wood-derived portion soil CO2 efflux also varied significantly by wood location, temperature, and wood quality. The average total DOC and the wood-derived portion of DOC differed between inoculation treatments, wood location, and temperature. Soil water chemical characteristics varied significantly by inoculation treatments, temperature, and wood quality. After 12 months of decomposition the proportion of lignin:carbohydrates varied significantly by inoculation treatment, with white rot having the only average proportional decrease in lignin:carbohydrates. Both soil CO2 efflux and DOC losses indicate that wood location is important. Carbon losses were greater from surface wood chips compared with buried wood chips, implying the importance of buried wood for total ecosystem carbon stabilization. Treatments associated with climate change also had an effect on the level of decomposition. DOC losses, soil water characteristics, and FTIR data demonstrate the importance of fungal community on the degree of decomposition and the resulting byproducts found throughout the soil.

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

Remotely-sensed changes in the primary productivity of migratory caribou calving grounds and summer pasture: the mixed influences of climate change and caribou herbivory

Nous avons utilisé la télédétection pour examiner comment l’abondance du caribou migrateur pouvait influencer la quantité de ressources alimentaires, et comment ces changements pouvaient affecter la dynamique de population et les patrons d’utilisation de l’espace des caribous. Nous avons évalué les relations entre le caribou et ses ressources alimentaires pour l’aire de mise bas et l’aire d’estivage du troupeau Rivière-George (TRG) du nord du Québec et du Labrador (Canada) entre 1991 et 2011. Nous avons modélisé les relations entre la productivité primaire et des variables climatiques, nous permettant d’isoler les effets d’autres facteurs, comme la pression de broutement des caribous. Nous avons trouvé une relation négative entre la densité de caribous et la productivité primaire à grande échelle, suggérant que la pression de broutement par les caribous pouvait réduire l’abondance des ressources alimentaires et contribuer à la dégradation de l’habitat. Une forte tendance au réchauffement durant la période d’étude, couplée avec un déclin de la taille de population du TRG, a cependant entrainé une productivité primaire plus élevée. Cette hausse de la productivité primaire pourrait représenter un rétablissement de la végétation suite à la réduction de la pression de broutement et/ou un effet du réchauffement climatique.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in Southern Portugal

Climate change projections point to increasing air temperature and reduced precipitation in southern Portugal, which would affect farming systems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in southern Portugal. These impacts were assessed by combining climate model data with a soil water balance model and a numerical model for the design of irrigation systems. Meteorological data from two weather stations were used along with three climate models (HadRM3P, HIRHAMh and HIRHAMhh; 2071–2100). The crop rotations studied included sugar beet–maize–tomato–wheat and sunflower–wheat–barley. Two adaptation measures were considered: (i) maintaining the current crop varieties; (ii) using new crop varieties. The results from the considered climate change scenarios indicated that the impacts of climate change on irrigation requirements depend on the adopted adaptation measures. On average, the seasonal irrigation requirements increased by 13–70% when new crop varieties were used and by −13 to 7% when the current crop varieties were maintained. The impacts of climate change on irrigation system design were considerable, with the design flow rate increasing by 5–24%.

Dynamics of terricolous alpine lichen communities of the Alps and Mediterranean Mountains in a climate change perspective

This thesis focuses on the impact of climate change in alpine ecosystems stressing the response of high elevation terricolous lichen communities. In fact, despite the strong sensitivity of cryptogams to changes in climatic factors, information is still scanty.We collected records in 154 plots placed in the summit area of the Majella Massif. In Following a multitaxon approach, Chapter 1 includes cryptogams and vascular plants. We analysed patterns in species richness, beta diversity and functional composition. In Chapter 2, we analysed the relationships between climatic variables and phylogenetic diversity and structure indices. Chapter 3 provides a long-term response relative to the consequences of climate change on a representative terricolous lichen genus across the Alps. Chapter 4 explores the relationships between the species richness and the functional composition of lichen growing on two types of substrates (carbonatic and siliceous soils) along different elevation gradients in the Eastern Alps. Climate change could affect cryptogams and lichens much more than vascular plants in Mediterranean mountains. Contrasting species-climate and traits-climate relationships were found between lichens and bryophytes, suggesting that each group may be sensitive to different components of climate change. Ongoing climate change may also lead to a loss of genetic diversity at high elevation ranges in the Mediterranean mountains, pauperising the life history richness of lichens. Alpine results forecasted that moderate range loss dynamics will occur at low elevation and in peripheral areas of the alpine chain. Results also support the view that range dynamics could be associated with functional traits mainly related to water-use strategies, dispersal, and establishment ability. We also highlighted the importance of substrates as a main driver of both species’ richness and functional traits composition. A “trade-off” also occurs between stress tolerance and the competitive response of communities of terricolous lichens that grow above siliceous and carbonatic soils.

Analysis of technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech) in the perspective of climate change

The severe accidents deriving from the impact of natural events on industrial installations have become a matter of growing concern in the last decades. In the literature, these events are typically referred to as Natech accidents. Several peculiarities distinguish them from conventional industrial accidents caused by internal factors, such as the possible occurrence of multiple simultaneous failures, and the enhanced probability of cascading events. The research project provides a comprehensive overview of Natech accidents that occurred in the Chemical and Process Industry, allowing for the identification of relevant aspects of Natech events. Quantified event trees and probability of ignition are derived from the collected dataset, providing a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The investigation of past Natech accidents also demonstrated that wildfires may cause technological accidents. Climate change and global warming are promoting the conditions for wildfire development and rapid spread. Hence, ensuring the safety of industrial facilities exposed to wildfires is paramount. This was achieved defining safety distances between wildland vegetation and industrial equipment items. In addition, an innovative methodology for the vulnerability assessment of Natech and Domino scenarios triggered by wildfires was developed. The approach accounted for the dynamic behaviour of wildfire events and related technological scenarios. Besides, the performance of the emergency response and the related intervention time in the case of cascading events caused by natural events were evaluated. Overall, the tools presented in this thesis represent a step forward in the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natech accidents. The methodologies developed also provide a solid basis for the definition of effective strategies for risk mitigation and reduction. These aspects are crucial to improve the resilience of industrial plants to natural hazards, especially considering the effects that climate change may have on the severity of such events.

Adapting fruit production to climate change: how to increase intrinsic fruit quality and save water through deficit irrigation scheduling.

Fruit crops are an important resource for food security, since more than being nutrient they are also a source of natural antioxidant compounds, such as polyphenols and vitamins. However, fruit crops are also among the cultivations threatened by the harmful effects of climate change This study had the objective of investigating the physiological effects of deficit irrigation on apple (2020-2021), sour cherry (2020-2021-2022) and apricot (2021-2022) trees, with a special focus on fruit nutraceutical quality. On each trial, the main physiological parameters were monitored along the growing season: i) stem and leaf water potentials; ii) leaf gas exchanges; iii) fruit and shoot growth. At harvest, fruit quality was evaluated especially in terms of fruit size, flesh firmness and soluble solids content. Moreover, it was performed: i) total phenolic content determination; ii) anthocyanidin concentration evaluation; and iii) untargeted metabolomic study. Irrigation scheduling in apricot, apple and sour cherry is surely overestimated by the decision support system available in Emilia-Romagna region. The water stress imposed on different fruit crops, each during two years of study, showed as a general conclusion that the decrease in the irrigation water did not show a straightforward decrease in plant physiological performance. This can be due to the miscalculation of the real water needs of the considered fruit crops. For this reason, there is the need to improve this important tool for an appropriate water irrigation management. Furthermore, there is also the need to study the behaviour of fruit crops under more severe deficit irrigations. In fact, it is likely that the application of lower water amounts will enhance the synthesis of specialized metabolites, with positive repercussion on human health. These hypotheses must be verified.