Virulotyping and antimicrobial resistance typing of salmonella enterica serovars relevant to human health in Europe

The combination of virulence gene and antimicrobial resistance gene typing using DNA arrays is a recently developed genomics-based approach to bacterial molecular epidemiology. We have now applied this technology to 523 Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica strains collected from various host sources and public health and veterinary institutes across nine European countries. The strain set included the five predominant Salmonella serovars isolated in Europe (Enteritidis, Typhimurium, Infantis, Virchow, and Hadar). Initially, these strains were screened for 10 potential virulence factors (avrA, ssaQ, mgtC, siiD, sopB, gipA, sodC1, sopE1, spvC, and bcfC) by polymerase chain reaction. The results indicated that only 14 profiles comprising these genes (virulotypes) were observed throughout Europe. Moreover, most of these virulotypes were restricted to only one (n = 9) or two (n = 4) serovars. The data also indicated that the virulotype did not vary significantly with host source or geographical location. Subsequently, a representative subset of 77 strains was investigated using a microarray designed to detect 102 virulence and 49 resistance determinants. The results confirmed and extended the previous observations using the virulo-polymerase chain reaction screen. Strains belonging to the same serovar grouped together, indicating that the broader virulence-associated gene complement corresponded with the serovar. There were, however, some differences in the virulence gene profiles between strains belonging to an individual serovar. This variation occurred primarily within those virulence genes that were prophage encoded, in fimbrial clusters or in the virulence plasmid. It seems likely that such changes enable Salmonella to adapt to different environmental conditions, which might be reflected in serovar-specific ecology. In this strain subset a number of resistance genes were detected and were serovar restricted to a varying degree. Once again the profiles of those genes encoding resistance were similar or the same for each serovar in all hosts and countries investigated.

Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe

New crop cultivars will be required for a changing climate characterised by increased summer drought and heat stress in Europe. However, the uncertainty in climate predictions poses a challenge to crop scientists and breeders who have limited time and resources and must select the most appropriate traits for improvement. Modelling is a powerful tool to quantify future threats to crops and hence identify targets for improvement. We have used a wheat simulation model combined with local-scale climate scenarios to predict impacts of heat stress and drought on winter wheat in Europe. Despite the lower summer precipitation projected for 2050s across Europe, relative yield losses from drought is predicted to be smaller in the future, because wheat will mature earlier avoiding severe drought. By contrast, the risk of heat stress around flowering will increase, potentially resulting in substantial yield losses for heat sensitive cultivars commonly grown in northern Europe.

Securing Peace in Europe, 1945-62: Thoughts for the Post-Cold War Era

Articles include: Beatrice Heuser: ‘Stalin as Hitler's Successor: Western Interpretations of the Soviet threat', pp. 17-40

Accelerated loss of alpine glaciers in the Kodar Mountains, south-eastern Siberia

The recession of mountain glaciers around the world has been linked to anthropogenic climate change and small glaciers (e.g. < 2 km2) are thought to be particularly vulnerable, with reports of their disappearance from several regions. However, the response of small glaciers to climate change can be modulated by non-climatic factors such as topography and debris cover and there remain a number of regions where their recent change has evaded scrutiny. This paper presents results of the first multi-year remote sensing survey of glaciers in the Kodar Mountains, the only glaciers in SE Siberia, which we compare to previous glacier inventories from this continental setting that reported total glacier areas of 18.8 km2 in ca. 1963 (12.6 km2 of exposed ice) and 15.5 km2 in 1974 (12 km2 of exposed ice). Mapping their debris-covered termini is difficult but delineation of debris-free ice on Landsat imagery reveals 34 glaciers with a total area of 11.72 ± 0.72 km2 in 1995, followed by a reduction to 9.53 ± 0.29 km2 in 2001 and 7.01 ± 0.23 km2 in 2010. This represents a ~ 44% decrease in exposed glacier ice between ca. 1963 and 2010, but with 40% lost since 1995 and with individual glaciers losing as much as 93% of their exposed ice. Thus, although continental glaciers are generally thought to be less sensitive than their maritime counterparts, a recent acceleration in shrinkage of exposed ice has taken place and we note its coincidence with a strong summer warming trend in the region initiated at the start of the 1980s. Whilst smaller and shorter glaciers have, proportionally, tended to shrink more rapidly, we find no statistically significant relationship between shrinkage and elevation characteristics, aspect or solar radiation. This is probably due to the small sample size, limited elevation range, and topographic setting of the glaciers in deep valleys-heads. Furthermore, many of the glaciers possess debris-covered termini and it is likely that the ablation of buried ice is lagging the shrinkage of exposed ice, such that a growth in the proportion of debris cover is occurring, as observed elsewhere. If recent trends continue, we hypothesise that glaciers could evolve into a type of rock glacier within the next few decades, introducing additional complexity in their response and delaying their potential demise.

Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes

Whilst hydrological systems can show resilience to short-term streamflow deficiencies during within-year droughts, prolonged deficits during multi-year droughts are a significant threat to water resources security in Europe. This study uses a threshold-based objective classification of regional hydrological drought to qualitatively examine the characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and synoptic climatic drivers of multi-year drought events in 1962–64, 1975–76 and 1995–97, on a European scale but with particular focus on the UK. Whilst all three events are multi-year, pan-European phenomena, their development and causes can be contrasted. The critical factor in explaining the unprecedented severity of the 1975–76 event is the consecutive occurrence of winter and summer drought. In contrast, 1962–64 was a succession of dry winters, mitigated by quiescent summers, whilst 1995–97 lacked spatial coherence and was interrupted by wet interludes. Synoptic climatic conditions vary within and between multi-year droughts, suggesting that regional factors modulate the climate signal in streamflow drought occurrence. Despite being underpinned by qualitatively similar climatic conditions and commonalities in evolution and characteristics, each of the three droughts has a unique spatio-temporal signature. An improved understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of multi-year droughts has much to contribute to monitoring and forecasting capability, and to improved mitigation strategies.

Novel management to enhance spider biodiversity in existing grass buffer strips

Grass buffer strips have been widely sown to mitigate against intensive agricultural management practices that have negatively impacted on invertebrate and plant biodiversity in arable farming systems. Typically, such strips are floristically species poor and are dominated by grasses. In the present study, we developed management practices to enhance the floristic and structural diversity of these existing strips for the benefit of spiders, a key provider of natural pest control in crops. Across three UK arable farms, we investigated the benefits of: (i) scarification to create germination niches into which wildflower seeds were sown and (ii) the effect of graminicide applications to suppress grass dominance. Spiders were sampled twice per year (July and September) during 2008 and 2009. The combination of scarification with wildflower seeds, as well as graminicide, resulted in the greatest wildflower cover and lowest grass cover, with a general trend of increased abundance of adult and juvenile spiders. The abundance of Pachygnatha degeeri, Bathyphantes gracilis and juvenile wolf spiders of the genus Pardosa was positively correlated with wildflower cover, probably reflecting increased prey availability. Sward structure was negatively correlated with Erigone atra, Oedothorax fuscus and juvenile Pardosa abundance. Management that utilizes existing commonly adopted agri-environment options, such as grass buffer strips, represents a potentially important conservation tool for increasing the quantity and quality of invertebrate habitats. This can maximize opportunities for the provision of multiple ecosystem services, including pest regulation by predators such as spiders. These management practices have the potential to be incorporated into existing U.K. and European agri-environment schemes.

Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in Europe: observed trends and atmospheric forcing

Temperature and precipitation are major forcing factors influencing grapevine phenology and yield, as well as wine quality. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a commonly used tool for viticultural zoning. For this research these indices were computed for Europe by using the E-OBS gridded daily temperature and precipitation data set for the period from 1950 to 2009. Results showed strong regional contrasts based on the different index patterns and reproduced the wide diversity of local conditions that largely explain the quality and diversity of grapevines being grown across Europe. Owing to the strong inter-annual variability in the indices, a trend analysis and a principal component analysis were applied together with an assessment of their mean patterns. Significant trends were identified in the Winkler and Huglin indices, particularly for southwestern Europe. Four statistically significant orthogonal modes of variability were isolated for the Huglin index (HI), jointly representing 82% of the total variance in Europe. The leading mode was largely dominant (48% of variance) and mainly reflected the observed historical long-term changes. The other 3 modes corresponded to regional dipoles within Europe. Despite the relevance of local and regional climatic characteristics to grapevines, it was demonstrated via canonical correlation analysis that the observed inter-annual variability of the HI was strongly controlled by the large-scale atmospheric circulation during the growing season (April to September).

Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe

Climate is one of the main factors controlling winegrape production. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a widely used zoning tool. Seven suitable bioclimatic indices characterize regions in Europe with different viticultural suitability, and their possible geographical shifts under future climate conditions are addressed using regional climate model simulations. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (daily values of temperature and precipitation) obtained from transient ensemble simulations with the regional model COSMO-CLM. Index maps for recent decades (1960–2000) and for the 21st century (following the IPCC-SRES B1 and A1B scenarios) are compared. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant effect on European viticultural geography. Detrimental impacts on winegrowing are predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making adaptation strategies crucial, such as changing varieties or introducing water supply by irrigation. Conversely, in western and central Europe, projected future changes will benefit not only wine quality, but might also demarcate new potential areas for viticulture, despite some likely threats associated with diseases. Regardless of the inherent uncertainties, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in different European regions.

Impact of city changes and weather on anthropogenic heat flux in Europe 1995–2015

How people live, work, move from place to place, consume and the technologies they use all affect heat emissions in a city which influences urban weather and climate. Here we document changes to a global anthropogenic heat flux (QF) model to enhance its spatial (30′′ × 30′′ to 0.5° × 0.5°) resolution and temporal coverage (historical, current and future). QF is estimated across Europe (1995–2015), considering changes in temperature, population and energy use. While on average QF is small (of the order 1.9–4.6 W m−2 across all the urban areas of Europe), significant spatial variability is documented (maximum 185 W m−2). Changes in energy consumption due to changes in climate are predicted to cause a 13% (11%) increase in QF on summer (winter) weekdays. The largest impact results from changes in temperature conditions which influences building energy use; for winter, with the coldest February on record, the mean flux for urban areas of Europe is 4.56 W m−2 and for summer (warmest July on record) is 2.23 W m−2. Detailed results from London highlight the spatial resolution used to model the QF is critical and must be appropriate for the application at hand, whether scientific understanding or decision making.

The politics of temporary work deregulation in Europe: solving the French puzzle

Temporary work has expanded in the last three decades with adverse implications for inequalities. Because temporary workers are a constituency that is unlikely to impose political costs, governments often choose to reduce temporary work regulations. While most European countries have indeed implemented such reforms, France went in the opposite direction, despite having both rigid labour markets and high unemployment. My argument to solve this puzzle is that where replaceability is high, workers in permanent and temporary contracts have overlapping interests, and governments choose to regulate temporary work to protect permanent workers. In turn, replaceability is higher where permanent workers’ skills are general and wage coordination is low. Logistic regression analysis of the determinants of replaceability — and how this affects governments’ reforms of temporary work regulations — supports my argument. Process tracing of French reforms also confirm that the left has tightened temporary work regulations to compensate for the high replaceability.

Mixing apples with oranges? Partisanship and active labour market policies in Europe

There are competing theoretical expectations and conflicting empirical results concerning the impact of partisanship on spending on active labour market policies (ALMPs). This paper argues that one should distinguish between different ALMPs. Employment incentives and rehabilitation programmes incentivize the unemployed to accept jobs. Direct job creation reduces the supply of labour by creating non-commercial jobs. Training schemes raise the human capital of the unemployed. Using regression analysis this paper shows that the positions of political parties towards these three types of ALMPs are different. Party preferences also depend on the welfare regime in which parties are located. In Scandinavia, left-wing parties support neither employment incentives nor direct job creation schemes. In continental and Liberal welfare regimes, left-wing parties oppose employment incentives and rehabilitation programmes to a lesser extent and they support direct job creation. There is no impact of partisanship on training. These results reconcile the previously contradictory findings concerning the impact of the Left on ALMPs.