893 resultados para Agent-based modeling
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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Diss., 2009
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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2015
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We review recent likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care. A semi-nonparametric model along the lines of Cameron and Johansson's Poisson polynomial model, but using a negative binomial baseline model, is introduced. We apply these models, as well a semiparametric Poisson, hurdle semiparametric Poisson, and finite mixtures of negative binomial models to six measures of health care usage taken from the Medical Expenditure Panel survey. We conclude that most of the models lead to statistically similar results, both in terms of information criteria and conditional and unconditional prediction. This suggests that applied researchers may not need to be overly concerned with the choice of which of these models they use to analyze data on health care demand.
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A factor limiting preliminary rockfall hazard mapping at regional scale is often the lack of knowledge of potential source areas. Nowadays, high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) can account for realistic landscape details even at large scale. With such fine-scale morphological variability, quantitative geomorphometric analyses become a relevant approach for delineating potential rockfall instabilities. Using digital elevation model (DEM)-based ?slope families? concept over areas of similar lithology and cliffs and screes zones available from the 1:25,000 topographic map, a susceptibility rockfall hazard map was drawn up in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, in order to provide a relevant hazard overview. Slope surfaces over morphometrically-defined thresholds angles were considered as rockfall source zones. 3D modelling (CONEFALL) was then applied on each of the estimated source zones in order to assess the maximum runout length. Comparison with known events and other rockfall hazard assessments are in good agreement, showing that it is possible to assess rockfall activities over large areas from DEM-based parameters and topographical elements.
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PURPOSE: To determine the diagnostic value of the intravascular contrast agent gadocoletic acid (B-22956) in three-dimensional, free breathing coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) for stenosis detection in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease. METHODS: Eighteen patients underwent three-dimensional, free breathing coronary MRA of the left and right coronary system before and after intravenous application of a single dose of gadocoletic acid (B-22956) using three different dose regimens (group A 0.050 mmol/kg; group B 0.075 mmol/kg; group C 0.100 mmol/kg). Precontrast scanning followed a coronary MRA standard non-contrast T2 preparation/turbo-gradient echo sequence (T2Prep); for postcontrast scanning an inversion-recovery gradient echo sequence was used (real-time navigator correction for both scans). In pre- and postcontrast scans quantitative analysis of coronary MRA data was performed to determine the number of visible side branches, vessel length and vessel sharpness of each of the three coronary arteries (LAD, LCX, RCA). The number of assessable coronary artery segments was determined to calculate sensitivity and specificity for detection of stenosis > or = 50% on a segment-to-segment basis (16-segment-model) in pre- and postcontrast scans with x-ray coronary angiography as the standard of reference. RESULTS: Dose group B (0.075 mmol/kg) was preferable with regard to improvement of MR angiographic parameters: in postcontrast scans all MR angiographic parameters increased significantly except for the number of visible side branches of the left circumflex artery. In addition, assessability of coronary artery segments significantly improved postcontrast in this dose group (67 versus 88%, p < 0.01). Diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy) was 83, 77 and 78% for precontrast and 86, 95 and 94% for postcontrast scans. CONCLUSIONS: The use of gadocoletic acid (B-22956) results in an improvement of MR angiographic parameters, asssessability of coronary segments and detection of coronary stenoses > or = 50%.
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Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.
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Coxiella burnetii is the agent of Q fever , an emergent worldwide zoonosis of wide clinical spectrum. Although C. burnetii infection is typically associated with acute infection, atypical pneumonia and flu-like symptoms, endocarditis, osteoarticular manifestations and severe disease are possible, especially when the patient has a suppressed immune system; however, these severe complications are typically neglected. This study reports the sequencing of the repetitive element IS1111 of the transposase gene of C. burnetii from blood and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples from a patient with severe pneumonia following methotrexate therapy, resulting in the molecular diagnosis of Q fever in a patient who had been diagnosed with active seronegative polyarthritis two years earlier. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first documented case of the isolation of C. burnetii DNA from a BAL sample.
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We have previously shown that a 28-amino acid peptide derived from the BRC4 motif of BRCA2 tumor suppressor inhibits selectively human RAD51 recombinase (HsRad51). With the aim of designing better inhibitors for cancer treatment, we combined an in silico docking approach with in vitro biochemical testing to construct a highly efficient chimera peptide from eight existing human BRC motifs. We built a molecular model of all BRC motifs complexed with HsRad51 based on the crystal structure of the BRC4 motif-HsRad51 complex, computed the interaction energy of each residue in each BRC motif, and selected the best amino acid residue at each binding position. This analysis enabled us to propose four amino acid substitutions in the BRC4 motif. Three of these increased the inhibitory effect in vitro, and this effect was found to be additive. We thus obtained a peptide that is about 10 times more efficient in inhibiting HsRad51-ssDNA complex formation than the original peptide.
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AIMS: To develop reporter constructs based on stable and unstable variants of the green fluorescent protein (GFP) for monitoring balanced production of antifungal compounds that are crucial for the capacity of the root-colonizing Pseudomonas fluorescens strain CHA0 to control plant diseases caused by soil-borne pathogenic fungi. METHODS AND RESULTS: Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 produces the three antifungal metabolites 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (DAPG), pyoluteorin (PLT) and pyrrolnitrin (PRN). The gfp[mut3] and gfp[AAV] reporter genes were fused to the promoter regions of the DAPG, PLT and PRN biosynthetic genes. The reporter fusions were then used to follow the kinetics of expression of the three antifungal metabolites in a microplate assay. DAPG and PLT were found to display an inverse relationship in which each metabolite activates its own biosynthesis while repressing the synthesis of the other metabolite. PRN appears not to be involved in this balance. However, the microbial and plant phenolic metabolite salicylate was found to interfere with the expression of both DAPG and PLT. CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained provide evidence that P. fluorescens CHA0 may keep the antifungal compounds DAPG and PLT at a fine-tuned balance that can be affected by certain microbial and plant phenolics. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: To our knowledge, the present study is the first to use stable and unstable GFP variants to study antibiotic gene expression in a biocontrol pseudomonad. The developed reporter fusions will be a highly valuable tool to study in situ expression of this bacterial biocontrol trait on plant roots, i.e. at the site of pathogen suppression.
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The paper presents a competence-based instructional design system and a way to provide a personalization of navigation in the course content. The navigation aid tool builds on the competence graph and the student model, which includes the elements of uncertainty in the assessment of students. An individualized navigation graph is constructed for each student, suggesting the competences the student is more prepared to study. We use fuzzy set theory for dealing with uncertainty. The marks of the assessment tests are transformed into linguistic terms and used for assigning values to linguistic variables. For each competence, the level of difficulty and the level of knowing its prerequisites are calculated based on the assessment marks. Using these linguistic variables and approximate reasoning (fuzzy IF-THEN rules), a crisp category is assigned to each competence regarding its level of recommendation.
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A remarkable feature of the carcinogenicity of inorganic arsenic is that while human exposures to high concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are associated with increases in skin, lung, and bladder cancer, inorganic arsenic has not typically caused tumors in standard laboratory animal test protocols. Inorganic arsenic administered for periods of up to 2 yr to various strains of laboratory mice, including the Swiss CD-1, Swiss CR:NIH(S), C57Bl/6p53(+/-), and C57Bl/6p53(+/+), has not resulted in significant increases in tumor incidence. However, Ng et al. (1999) have reported a 40% tumor incidence in C57Bl/6J mice exposed to arsenic in their drinking water throughout their lifetime, with no tumors reported in controls. In order to investigate the potential role of tissue dosimetry in differential susceptibility to arsenic carcinogenicity, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for inorganic arsenic in the rat, hamster, monkey, and human (Mann et al., 1996a, 1996b) was extended to describe the kinetics in the mouse. The PBPK model was parameterized in the mouse using published data from acute exposures of B6C3F1 mice to arsenate, arsenite, monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) and validated using data from acute exposures of C57Black mice. Predictions of the acute model were then compared with data from chronic exposures. There was no evidence of changes in the apparent volume of distribution or in the tissue-plasma concentration ratios between acute and chronic exposure that might support the possibility of inducible arsenite efflux. The PBPK model was also used to project tissue dosimetry in the C57Bl/6J study, in comparison with tissue levels in studies having shorter duration but higher arsenic treatment concentrations. The model evaluation indicates that pharmacokinetic factors do not provide an explanation for the difference in outcomes across the various mouse bioassays. Other possible explanations may relate to strain-specific differences, or to the different durations of dosing in each of the mouse studies, given the evidence that inorganic arsenic is likely to be active in the later stages of the carcinogenic process. [Authors]
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PURPOSE: Few studies compare the variabilities that characterize environmental (EM) and biological monitoring (BM) data. Indeed, comparing their respective variabilities can help to identify the best strategy for evaluating occupational exposure. The objective of this study is to quantify the biological variability associated with 18 bio-indicators currently used in work environments. METHOD: Intra-individual (BV(intra)), inter-individual (BV(inter)), and total biological variability (BV(total)) were quantified using validated physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models coupled with Monte Carlo simulations. Two environmental exposure profiles with different levels of variability were considered (GSD of 1.5 and 2.0). RESULTS: PBTK models coupled with Monte Carlo simulations were successfully used to predict the biological variability of biological exposure indicators. The predicted values follow a lognormal distribution, characterized by GSD ranging from 1.1 to 2.3. Our results show that there is a link between biological variability and the half-life of bio-indicators, since BV(intra) and BV(total) both decrease as the biological indicator half-lives increase. BV(intra) is always lower than the variability in the air concentrations. On an individual basis, this means that the variability associated with the measurement of biological indicators is always lower than the variability characterizing airborne levels of contaminants. For a group of workers, BM is less variable than EM for bio-indicators with half-lives longer than 10-15 h. CONCLUSION: The variability data obtained in the present study can be useful in the development of BM strategies for exposure assessment and can be used to calculate the number of samples required for guiding industrial hygienists or medical doctors in decision-making.
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Summary The specific CD8+ T cell immune response against tumors relies on the recognition by the T cell receptor (TCR) on cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) of antigenic peptides bound to the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecule. Such tumor associated antigenic peptides are the focus of tumor immunotherapy with peptide vaccines. The strategy for obtaining an improved immune response often involves the design of modified tumor associated antigenic peptides. Such modifications aim at creating higher affinity and/or degradation resistant peptides and require precise structures of the peptide-MHC class I complex. In addition, the modified peptide must be cross-recognized by CTLs specific for the parental peptide, i.e. preserve the structure of the epitope. Detailed structural information on the modified peptide in complex with MHC is necessary for such predictions. In this thesis, the main focus is the development of theoretical in silico methods for prediction of both structure and cross-reactivity of peptide-MHC class I complexes. Applications of these methods in the context of immunotherapy are also presented. First, a theoretical method for structure prediction of peptide-MHC class I complexes is developed and validated. The approach is based on a molecular dynamics protocol to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its MHC environment. The sampled conformers are evaluated using conformational free energy calculations. The method, which is evaluated for its ability to reproduce 41 X-ray crystallographic structures of different peptide-MHC class I complexes, shows an overall prediction success of 83%. Importantly, in the clinically highly relevant subset of peptide-HLAA*0201 complexes, the prediction success is 100%. Based on these structure predictions, a theoretical approach for prediction of cross-reactivity is developed and validated. This method involves the generation of quantitative structure-activity relationships using three-dimensional molecular descriptors and a genetic neural network. The generated relationships are highly predictive as proved by high cross-validated correlation coefficients (0.78-0.79). Together, the here developed theoretical methods open the door for efficient rational design of improved peptides to be used in immunotherapy. Résumé La réponse immunitaire spécifique contre des tumeurs dépend de la reconnaissance par les récepteurs des cellules T CD8+ de peptides antigéniques présentés par les complexes majeurs d'histocompatibilité (CMH) de classe I. Ces peptides sont utilisés comme cible dans l'immunothérapie par vaccins peptidiques. Afin d'augmenter la réponse immunitaire, les peptides sont modifiés de façon à améliorer l'affinité et/ou la résistance à la dégradation. Ceci nécessite de connaître la structure tridimensionnelle des complexes peptide-CMH. De plus, les peptides modifiés doivent être reconnus par des cellules T spécifiques du peptide natif. La structure de l'épitope doit donc être préservée et des structures détaillées des complexes peptide-CMH sont nécessaires. Dans cette thèse, le thème central est le développement des méthodes computationnelles de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I et de la reconnaissance croisée. Des applications de ces méthodes de prédiction à l'immunothérapie sont également présentées. Premièrement, une méthode théorique de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I est développée et validée. Cette méthode est basée sur un échantillonnage de l'espace conformationnel du peptide dans le contexte du récepteur CMH classe I par dynamique moléculaire. Les conformations sont évaluées par leurs énergies libres conformationnelles. La méthode est validée par sa capacité à reproduire 41 structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I obtenues par cristallographie aux rayons X. Le succès prédictif général est de 83%. Pour le sous-groupe HLA-A*0201 de complexes de grande importance pour l'immunothérapie, ce succès est de 100%. Deuxièmement, à partir de ces structures prédites in silico, une méthode théorique de prédiction de la reconnaissance croisée est développée et validée. Celle-ci consiste à générer des relations structure-activité quantitatives en utilisant des descripteurs moléculaires tridimensionnels et un réseau de neurones couplé à un algorithme génétique. Les relations générées montrent une capacité de prédiction remarquable avec des valeurs de coefficients de corrélation de validation croisée élevées (0.78-0.79). Les méthodes théoriques développées dans le cadre de cette thèse ouvrent la voie du design de vaccins peptidiques améliorés.
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Toxicokinetic modeling is a useful tool to describe or predict the behavior of a chemical agent in the human or animal organism. A general model based on four compartments was developed in a previous study in order to quantify the effect of human variability on a wide range of biological exposure indicators. The aim of this study was to adapt this existing general toxicokinetic model to three organic solvents, which were methyl ethyl ketone, 1-methoxy-2-propanol and 1,1,1,-trichloroethane, and to take into account sex differences. We assessed in a previous human volunteer study the impact of sex on different biomarkers of exposure corresponding to the three organic solvents mentioned above. Results from that study suggested that not only physiological differences between men and women but also differences due to sex hormones levels could influence the toxicokinetics of the solvents. In fact the use of hormonal contraceptive had an effect on the urinary levels of several biomarkers, suggesting that exogenous sex hormones could influence CYP2E1 enzyme activity. These experimental data were used to calibrate the toxicokinetic models developed in this study. Our results showed that it was possible to use an existing general toxicokinetic model for other compounds. In fact, most of the simulation results showed good agreement with the experimental data obtained for the studied solvents, with a percentage of model predictions that lies within the 95% confidence interval varying from 44.4 to 90%. Results pointed out that for same exposure conditions, men and women can show important differences in urinary levels of biological indicators of exposure. Moreover, when running the models by simulating industrial working conditions, these differences could even be more pronounced. In conclusion, a general and simple toxicokinetic model, adapted for three well known organic solvents, allowed us to show that metabolic parameters can have an important impact on the urinary levels of the corresponding biomarkers. These observations give evidence of an interindividual variablity, an aspect that should have its place in the approaches for setting limits of occupational exposure.