Noise and the trading mechanism:the case of SETS

On 20 October 1997 the London Stock Exchange introduced a new trading system called SETS. This system was to replace the dealer system SEAQ, which had been in operation since 1986. Using the iterative sum of squares test introduced by Inclan and Tiao (1994), we investigate whether there was a change in the unconditional variance of opening and closing returns, at the time SETS was introduced. We show that for the FTSE-100 stocks traded on SETS, on the days following its introduction, there was a widespread increase in the volatility of both opening and closing returns. However, no synchronous volatility changes were found to be associated with the FTSE-100 index or FTSE-250 stocks. We conclude therefore that the introduction of the SETS trading mechanism caused an increase in noise at the time the system was introduced.

An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

Corpus, collocation, and lexical sets

This paper is a progress report on a research path I first outlined in my contribution to “Words in Context: A Tribute to John Sinclair on his Retirement” (Heffer and Sauntson, 2000). Therefore, I first summarize that paper here, in order to provide the relevant background. The second half of the current paper consists of some further manual analyses, exploring various parameters and procedures that might assist in the design of an automated computational process for the identification of lexical sets. The automation itself is beyond the scope of the current paper.

Sequential, Bayesian geostatistics:a principled method for large data sets

The principled statistical application of Gaussian random field models used in geostatistics has historically been limited to data sets of a small size. This limitation is imposed by the requirement to store and invert the covariance matrix of all the samples to obtain a predictive distribution at unsampled locations, or to use likelihood-based covariance estimation. Various ad hoc approaches to solve this problem have been adopted, such as selecting a neighborhood region and/or a small number of observations to use in the kriging process, but these have no sound theoretical basis and it is unclear what information is being lost. In this article, we present a Bayesian method for estimating the posterior mean and covariance structures of a Gaussian random field using a sequential estimation algorithm. By imposing sparsity in a well-defined framework, the algorithm retains a subset of “basis vectors” that best represent the “true” posterior Gaussian random field model in the relative entropy sense. This allows a principled treatment of Gaussian random field models on very large data sets. The method is particularly appropriate when the Gaussian random field model is regarded as a latent variable model, which may be nonlinearly related to the observations. We show the application of the sequential, sparse Bayesian estimation in Gaussian random field models and discuss its merits and drawbacks.

Projected sequential Gaussian processes: flexible interpolation for large data sets

Recently within the machine learning and spatial statistics communities many papers have explored the potential of reduced rank representations of the covariance matrix, often referred to as projected or fixed rank approaches. In such methods the covariance function of the posterior process is represented by a reduced rank approximation which is chosen such that there is minimal information loss. In this paper a sequential framework for inference in such projected processes is presented, where the observations are considered one at a time. We introduce a C++ library for carrying out such projected, sequential estimation which adds several novel features. In particular we have incorporated the ability to use a generic observation operator, or sensor model, to permit data fusion. We can also cope with a range of observation error characteristics, including non-Gaussian observation errors. Inference for the variogram parameters is based on maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate the projected sequential method in application to synthetic and real data sets. We discuss the software implementation and suggest possible future extensions.

Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area

We use the Fleissig and Whitney [Fleissig, A.R., Whitney, G.A., 2003. A new PC-based test for Varian's weak separability conditions. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics 21 (1), 133–144] weak separability test to determine admissible levels of monetary aggregation for the Euro area. We find that the Euro area monetary assets in M2 and M3 are weakly separable and construct admissible Divisia monetary aggregates for these assets. We show that real growth of the admissible Divisia aggregates enters the Euro area IS curve positively and significantly for the period from 1980 to 2005. Out of sample, we show that Divisia M2 and M3 appear to contain useful information for forecasting Euro area inflation.

Computing and Visualizing Solution Sets of Interval Linear Systems

The paper has been presented at the 12th International Conference on Applications of Computer Algebra, Varna, Bulgaria, June, 2006

Reasoning Methods for Designing and Surveying Relationships Described by Sets of Functional Constraints

This work is supported by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA), grant T042706.

A Clarke–Ledyaev Type Inequality for Certain Non–Convex Sets

We consider the question whether the assumption of convexity of the set involved in Clarke-Ledyaev inequality can be relaxed. In the case when the point is outside the convex hull of the set we show that Clarke-Ledyaev type inequality holds if and only if there is certain geometrical relation between the point and the set.

Descriptive Sets and the Topology of Nonseparable Banach Spaces

This paper was extensively circulated in manuscript form beginning in the Summer of 1989. It is being published here for the first time in its original form except for minor corrections, updated references and some concluding comments.

Discriminant Sets of Families of Hyperbolic Polynomials of Degree 4 and 5

∗ Research partially supported by INTAS grant 97-1644

Spline Subdivision Schemes for Compact Sets. A Survey

Dedicated to the memory of our colleague Vasil Popov January 14, 1942 – May 31, 1990 * Partially supported by ISF-Center of Excellence, and by The Hermann Minkowski Center for Geometry at Tel Aviv University, Israel

Projectively Solid Sets and an N-dimensional Piccard's Theorem

We discuss functions f : X × Y → Z such that sets of the form f (A × B) have non-empty interiors provided that A and B are non-empty sets of second category and have the Baire property.

On Typical Compact Convex Sets in Hilbert Spaces

Let E be an infinite dimensional separable space and for e ∈ E and X a nonempty compact convex subset of E, let qX(e) be the metric antiprojection of e on X. Let n ≥ 2 be an arbitrary integer. It is shown that for a typical (in the sence of the Baire category) compact convex set X ⊂ E the metric antiprojection qX(e) has cardinality at least n for every e in a dense subset of E.