Virtual simulation of the postsurgical cosmetic outcome in patientswith pectus excavatum

Pectus excavatum is the most common congenital deformity of the anterior chest wall, in which several ribs and the sternum grow abnormally. Nowadays, the surgical correction is carried out in children and adults through Nuss technic. This technic has been shown to be safe with major drivers as cosmesis and the prevention of psychological problems and social stress. Nowadays, no application is known to predict the cosmetic outcome of the pectus excavatum surgical correction. Such tool could be used to help the surgeon and the patient in the moment of deciding the need for surgery correction. This work is a first step to predict postsurgical outcome in pectus excavatum surgery correction. Facing this goal, it was firstly determined a point cloud of the skin surface along the thoracic wall using Computed Tomography (before surgical correction) and the Polhemus FastSCAN (after the surgical correction). Then, a surface mesh was reconstructed from the two point clouds using a Radial Basis Function algorithm for further affine registration between the meshes. After registration, one studied the surgical correction influence area (SCIA) of the thoracic wall. This SCIA was used to train, test and validate artificial neural networks in order to predict the surgical outcome of pectus excavatum correction and to determine the degree of convergence of SCIA in different patients. Often, ANN did not converge to a satisfactory solution (each patient had its own deformity characteristics), thus invalidating the creation of a mathematical model capable of estimating, with satisfactory results, the postsurgical outcome

Short-term wind forecasting for energy resources scheduling

This paper proposes a wind power forecasting methodology based on two methods: direct wind power forecasting and wind speed forecasting in the first phase followed by wind power forecasting using turbines characteristics and the aforementioned wind speed forecast. The proposed forecasting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, namely with a time horizon of 5 minutes. This intraday model supports distribution network operators in the short-term scheduling problem, in the smart grid context. A case study using a real database of 12 months recorded from a Portuguese wind power farm was used. The results show that the straightforward methodology can be applied in the intraday model with high wind speed and wind power accuracy. The wind power forecast direct method shows better performance than wind power forecast using turbine characteristics and wind speed forecast obtained in first phase.

Contextual intelligent load management with ANN adaptive learning module

With the current increase of energy resources prices and environmental concerns intelligent load management systems are gaining more and more importance. This paper concerns a SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM) system that includes an optimization module using deterministic and genetic algorithm approaches. SHIM undertakes contextual load management based on the characterization of each situation. SHIM considers available generation resources, load demand, supplier/market electricity price, and consumers’ constraints and preferences. The paper focus on the recently developed learning module which is based on artificial neural networks (ANN). The learning module allows the adjustment of users’ profiles along SHIM lifetime. A case study considering a system with fourteen discrete and four variable loads managed by a SHIM system during five consecutive similar weekends is presented.

A data-mining based methodology for wind forecasting

In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.

ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Uncertainty assessment approach for composite structures based on global sensitivity indices

The problem of uncertainty propagation in composite laminate structures is studied. An approach based on the optimal design of composite structures to achieve a target reliability level is proposed. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a design domain centred at mean values of random variables, aimed at studying the space variability. The most critical Tsai number, the structural reliability index and the sensitivities are obtained for each UDM design point, using the maximum load obtained from optimal design search. Using the UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on supervised evolutionary learning. Finally, using the developed ANN a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is implemented and the variability of the structural response based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is studied. The GSA is based on the first order Sobol indices and relative sensitivities. An appropriate GSA algorithm aiming to obtain Sobol indices is proposed. The most important sources of uncertainty are identified.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Visualization of clusters in geo-referenced data using three-dimensional self-organizing maps

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Controlo de um robô autónomo através de redes neuronais

Neste trabalho pretende-se introduzir os conceitos associados às redes neuronais e a sua aplicação no controlo de sistemas, neste caso na área da robótica autónoma. Foi utilizado um AGV de modo a testar experimentalmente um controlo através de uma rede neuronal artificial. A grande vantagem das redes neuronais artificiais é estas poderem ser ensinadas a funcionarem como se pretende. A partir desta caraterística foram efetuadas duas abordagens na implementação do AGV disponibilizado. A primeira abordagem ensinava a rede neuronal a funcionar como o controlo por lógica difusa que foi implementado no AGV aquando do seu desenvolvimento. A segunda abordagem foi ensinar a rede neuronal artificial a funcionar a partir de dados retirados de um controlo remoto simples implementado no AGV. Ambas as abordagens foram inicialmente implementadas e simuladas no MATLAB, antes de se efetuar a sua implementação no AGV. O MATLAB é utilizado para efetuar o treino das redes neuronais multicamada proactivas através do algoritmo de treino por retropropagação de Levenberg-Marquardt. A implementação de uma rede neuronal artificial na primeira abordagem foi implementada em três fases, MATLAB, posteriormente linguagem de programação C no computador e por fim, microcontrolador PIC no AGV, permitindo assim diferenciar o desenvolvimento destas técnicas em várias plataformas. Durante o desenvolvimento da segunda abordagem foi desenvolvido uma aplicação Android que permite monitorizar e controlar o AGV remotamente. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação da rede neuronal a partir do controlo difuso e do controlo remoto foram satisfatórios, pois o AGV percorria os percursos testados corretamente, em ambos os casos. Por fim concluiu-se que é viável a aplicação das redes neuronais no controlo de um AGV. Mais ainda, é possível utilizar o sistema desenvolvido para implementar e testar novas RNA.

Sistema online de apoio à decisão para médicos oncologistas

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Contextual Intelligent Load Management Considering Real-Time Pricing in a Smart Grid Environment

The use of demand response programs enables the adequate use of resources of small and medium players, bringing high benefits to the smart grid, and increasing its efficiency. One of the difficulties to proceed with this paradigm is the lack of intelligence in the management of small and medium size players. In order to make demand response programs a feasible solution, it is essential that small and medium players have an efficient energy management and a fair optimization mechanism to decrease the consumption without heavy loss of comfort, making it acceptable for the users. This paper addresses the application of real-time pricing in a house that uses an intelligent optimization module involving artificial neural networks.

Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Strategic Bidding for Electricity Markets Negotiation Using Support Vector Machines

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network, originating promising results. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL - Iberian market operator.

Electricity Markets Portfolio Optimization using a Particle Swarm Approach

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the player’s portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method, based on particle swarm optimization, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering the different markets the player is acting on in each moment, and depending on different contexts of negotiation, such as the peak and offpeak periods of the day, and the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.). The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – OMIE.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.