Decision support for lifecycle planning and risk management of small-scale biomass combined heat and power (bCHP) projects in the UK

Biomass is projected to account for approximately half of the new energy production required to achieve the 2020 primary energy target in the UK. Combined heat and power (CHP) bioenergy systems are not only a highly efficient method of energy conversion, at smaller-scales a significant proportion of the heat produced can be effectively utilised for hot water, space heating or industrial heating purposes. However, there are many barriers to project development and this has greatly inhibited deployment in the UK. Project viability is highly subjective to changes in policy, regulation, the finance market and the low cost incumbent; a high carbon centralised energy system. Unidentified or unmitigated barriers occurring during the project lifecycle may not only negatively impact on the project but could ultimately lead to project failure. The research develops a decision support system (DSS) for small-scale (500 kWe to 10 MWe) biomass combustion CHP project development and risk management in the early stages of a potential project’s lifecycle. By supporting developers in the early stages of project development with financial, scheduling and risk management analysis, the research aims to reduce the barriers identified and streamline decision-making. A fuzzy methodology is also applied throughout the developed DSS to support developers in handling the uncertain or approximate information often held at the early stages of the project lifecycle. The DSS is applied to a case study of a recently failed (2011) small-scale biomass CHP project to demonstrate its applicability and benefits. The application highlights that the proposed development within the case study was not viable. Moreover, further analysis of the possible barriers with the DSS confirmed that some possible modifications to be project could have improved this, such as a possible change of feedstock to a waste or residue, addressing the unnecessary land lease cost or by increasing heat utilisation onsite. This analysis is further supported by a practitioner evaluation survey that confirms the research contribution and objectives are achieved.

Essays on intergenerational and regional aspects of water management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer's surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.^

Essays on Intergenerational and Regional Aspects of Water Management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer’s surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.

Diagnostic Tests and their Application in the Management of Soil- and Water-borne Oomycete Pathogen Species

Oomycete diseases cause significant losses across a broad range of crop and aquaculture commodities worldwide. These losses can be greatly reduced by disease management practices steered by accurate and early diagnoses of pathogen presence. Determinations of disease potential can help guide optimal crop rotation regimes, varietal selections, targeted control measures, harvest timings and crop post-harvest handling. Pathogen detection prior to infection can also reduce the incidence of disease epidemics. Classical methods for the isolation of oomycete pathogens are normally deployed only after disease symptom appearance. These processes are often-time consuming, relying on culturing the putative pathogen(s) and the availability of expert taxonomic skills for accurate identification; a situation that frequently results in either delayed application, or routine ‘blanket’ over-application of control measures. Increasing concerns about pesticides in the environment and the food chain, removal or restriction of their usage combined with rising costs have focussed interest in the development and improvement of disease management systems. To be effective, these require timely, accurate and preferably quantitatve diagnoses. A wide range of rapid diagnostic tools, from point of care immunodiagnostic kits to next generation nucleotide sequencing have potential application in oomycete disease management. Here we review currently-available as well as promising new technologies in the context of commercial agricultural production systems, considering the impacts of specific biotic and abiotic and other important factors such as speed and ease of access to information and cost effectiveness

Limnology of Macrobrachium amazonicum grow-out ponds subject to high inflow of nutrient-rich water and different stocking and harvest management

We evaluated the water characteristics and particle sedimentation in Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller 1862) grow-out ponds supplied with a high inflow of nutrient-rich water. Prawns were subject to different stocking and harvesting strategies: upper-graded juveniles, lower-graded juveniles, non-graded juveniles + selective harvesting and traditional farming (non-grading juveniles and total harvest only). Dissolved oxygen, afternoon N-ammonia and N-nitrate and soluble orthophosphate were lower in the ponds in comparison with inflow water through the rearing cycle. Ponds stocked with the upper population fraction of graded prawns showed higher turbidity, total suspended solids and total Kjeldahl nitrogen than the remaining treatments. An increase in the chemical oxygen demand:biochemical oxygen demand ratio from inlet (4.9) to pond (7.1-8.0) waters indicated a non-readily biodegradable fraction enhancement in ponds. The sedimentation mean rate ranged from 0.08 to 0.16 mm day(-1) and sediment contained >80% of organic matter. The major factors affecting pond ecosystem dynamic were the organic load (due to primary production and feed addition) and bioturbation caused by stocking larger animals. Data suggest that M. amazonicum grow-out in ponds subjected to a high inflow of nutrient-rich water produce changes in the water properties, huge accumulation of organic sediment at the pond bottom and non-readily biodegradable material in the water column. However, the water quality remains suitable for aquaculture purposes. Therefore, nutrient-rich waters, when available, may represent a source of unpaid nutrients, which may be incorporated into economically valued biomass if managed properly.

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Land-Water interactions in the amazon

Biogeochemistry is hosting this special thematic issue devoted to studies of land-water interactions, as part of the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amaznia (LBA). This compilation of papers covers a broad range of topics with a common theme of coupling land and water processes, across pristine and impacted systems. Findings highlighted that hydrologic flowpaths are clearly important across basin size and structure in determining how water and solutes reach streams. Land-use changes have pronounced impacts on flowpaths, and subsequently, on stream chemistry, from small streams to large rivers. Carbon is produced and transformed across a broad array of fluvial environments and wetlands. Surface waters are not only driven by, but provide feedback to, the atmosphere.

Stimulating dormancy release and emergence of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum) seeds using short-term hydrated storage in darkness

Experiments were performed to determine whether the dormancy release effect of hydrated storage in darkness (dark-stratification) is common amongst annual ryegrass populations and has the potential to occur under field conditions. Dormant seeds from all populations tested (22) became sensitive to light during dark-stratification, enabling them to germinate when subsequently exposed to light. Under controlled temperature (25/15degreesC), light (12-h photoperiod), and hydration (solidified agar-water) conditions, more seeds germinated by 28 days if the first 14 days were in darkness followed by exposure to light for 12 h per day than if they were exposed to light throughout or darkness throughout. Constraint over the conditions imposed during dark-stratification and germination was gradually reduced to investigate whether the dormancy release effect was diminished. Dark-stratification was effective in promoting germination when performed under natural diurnal temperatures, and burial in moist soil provided suitable conditions for dark-stratification to occur. The surface of moist soil, with natural diurnal temperatures and sunlight, was suitable for germination of dark-stratified seeds. Dark-stratification is a quick and effective means to enhance the sensitivity of dormant annual ryegrass seeds to light, enabling the majority of the population to germinate. However, large quantities of light are required to promote germination of dark-stratified seeds, so buried seeds must be moved to the soil surface to allow exposure to adequate light for germination.

Maturation temperature and rainfall influence seed dormancy characteristics of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum)

The role of temperature and rainfall during seed development in modulating subsequent seed dormancy status was studied for Lolium rigidum Gaud. (annual ryegrass). Climatic parameters relating to geographic origin were compared with annual ryegrass seed dormancy characteristics for seeds collected from 12 sites across the southern Western Australian cropping region. Seed germination was tested soon after collection and periodically during subsequent after-ripening. Temperature in the year of seed development and long-term rainfall patterns showed correlations with aspects of seed dormancy, particularly the proportion of seeds remaining dormant following 5 months of after-ripening. Consequently, for one population the temperature (warm/cool) and water supply (adequate/reduced) during seed development were manipulated to investigate the role of maternal environment in the quantity and dormancy characteristics of seeds produced. Seeds from plants grown at warm temperatures were fewer in number, weighed less, and were less dormant than those from plants grown at cool temperature. Seeds that developed under both cool temperature and reduced moisture conditions lost dormancy faster than seeds from well-watered plants. Seed maturation environment, particularly temperature, can have a significant effect on annual ryegrass seed numbers and seed dormancy characteristics.

Seed dormancy and germination responses of nine Australian fire ephemerals

Fire ephemerals are short-lived plants with seeds that persist in the soil and germinate after a fire or physical soil disturbance. Ex situ germination of many Australian fire ephemerals has previously been difficult. Dormancy was present in most of the nine fire ephemerals examined. Alyogyne hakeifolia (Giord.) Alef. and Alyogyne huegelii (Endl.) Fryxell (Malvaceae) seeds had physical and possibly also physiological dormancy, Actinotus leucocephalus Benth. (Apiaceae) seeds had morphophysiological dormancy, Austrostipa compressa (R.Br.) S.W.L. Jacobs & J. Everett and Austrostipa macalpinei (Reader) S.W.L. Jacobs & J. Everett (Poaceae) seeds were either non-dormant or possessed physiological dormancy, and seeds of all remaining species possessed physiological dormancy. A proportion of the Alyogyne hakeifolia, Alyogyne huegelii, Austrostipa compressa and Austrostipa macalpinei seed populations were non-dormant because some seeds could germinate at the various incubation temperatures without further treatment. At 20 degrees C, artificial methods of inducing germination such as manual or acid scarification were among the optimal treatments for Austrostipa compressa, Austrostipa macalpinei, Alyogyne huegelii, Actinotus leucocephalus and Grevillea scapigera A.S. George (Proteaceae), and gibberellic acid induced maximum germination of Tersonia cyathiflora (Fenzl) J.W. Green (Gyrostemonaceae) seeds. Heat (70 degrees C for 1 h) and smoke water was one of the most effective treatments for germinating Actinotus leucocephalus and Codonocarpus cotinifolius (Desf.) F. Muell. (Gyrostemonaceae) seeds. Germination of Grevillea scapigera, Codonocarpus cotinifolius, Gyrostemon racemiger H. Walter (Gyrostemonaceae) and Tersonia cyathiflora did not exceed 40% and may require other treatments to overcome dormancy. Although the nine fire ephemerals examined require fire to germinate under natural conditions, a range of germination responses and dormancy types was observed.

Late-season non-selective herbicide application reduces Lolium rigidum seed numbers, seed viability, and seedling fitness

Experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of Lolium rigidum (annual ryegrass) seed developmental stage and application rate of glyphosate and SpraySeed (paraquat 135 g/L+ diquat 115 g/L) on the number, germinability, and fitness of seeds produced. Glyphosate (450 g/L) was most effective when applied at a rate of 0.5-1 L/ha during heading and anthesis, reducing the number of filled seeds produced compared with unsprayed plants. Application post-anthesis, when seeds were at the milk to soft dough stage, was less effective. SpraySeed was most effective when applied post-anthesis, during the milk and early dough stages of seed development at a rate of 0.5-1L/ha, resulting in the production of few viable seeds. Although some filled seeds were produced, most of the seeds were dead. Application during anthesis or once the seeds reached soft dough stage was less effective. For both herbicides, those seeds that were capable of germinating were smaller and had slower radicle and coleoptile growth, resulting in slower early seedling growth and reduced biomass production within the first month of growth. Additionally, glyphosate application reduced the proportion of seeds exhibiting dormancy. The anticipated reduction in seed competitive ability and altered emergence timing resulting from late-season herbicide application, even when application timing is not optimal, could be exploited to reduce the likelihood of successful L. rigidum establishment in the following season.

Urban land cover change detection analysis and modeling spatio-temporal Growth dynamics using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: A case study of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.