Energetics of climate models: net energy balance and meridional enthalpy transport

We analyze the publicly released outputs of the simulations performed by climate models (CMs) in preindustrial (PI) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRESA1B) conditions. In the PI simulations, most CMs feature biases of the order of 1 W m −2 for the net global and the net atmospheric, oceanic, and land energy balances. This does not result from transient effects but depends on the imperfect closure of the energy cycle in the fluid components and on inconsistencies over land. Thus, the planetary emission temperature is underestimated, which may explain the CMs' cold bias. In the PI scenario, CMs agree on the meridional atmospheric enthalpy transport's peak location (around 40°N/S), while discrepancies of ∼20% exist on the intensity. Disagreements on the oceanic transport peaks' location and intensity amount to ∼10° and ∼50%, respectively. In the SRESA1B runs, the atmospheric transport's peak shifts poleward, and its intensity increases up to ∼10% in both hemispheres. In most CMs, the Northern Hemispheric oceanic transport decreases, and the peaks shift equatorward in both hemispheres. The Bjerknes compensation mechanism is active both on climatological and interannual time scales. The total meridional transport peaks around 35° in both hemispheres and scenarios, whereas disagreements on the intensity reach ∼20%. With increased CO 2 concentration, the total transport increases up to ∼10%, thus contributing to polar amplification of global warming. Advances are needed for achieving a self-consistent representation of climate as a nonequilibrium thermodynamical system. This is crucial for improving the CMs' skill in representing past and future climate changes.

Identifying and quantifying nonconservative energy production/destruction terms in hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation models

This paper seeks to illustrate the point that physical inconsistencies between thermodynamics and dynamics usually introduce nonconservative production/destruction terms in the local total energy balance equation in numerical ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Such terms potentially give rise to undesirable forces and/or diabatic terms in the momentum and thermodynamic equations, respectively, which could explain some of the observed errors in simulated ocean currents and water masses. In this paper, a theoretical framework is developed to provide a practical method to determine such nonconservative terms, which is illustrated in the context of a relatively simple form of the hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation used in early versions of OGCMs, for which at least four main potential sources of energy nonconservation are identified; they arise from: (1) the “hanging” kinetic energy dissipation term; (2) assuming potential or conservative temperature to be a conservative quantity; (3) the interaction of the Boussinesq approximation with the parameterizations of turbulent mixing of temperature and salinity; (4) some adiabatic compressibility effects due to the Boussinesq approximation. In practice, OGCMs also possess spurious numerical energy sources and sinks, but they are not explicitly addressed here. Apart from (1), the identified nonconservative energy sources/sinks are not sign definite, allowing for possible widespread cancellation when integrated globally. Locally, however, these terms may be of the same order of magnitude as actual energy conversion terms thought to occur in the oceans. Although the actual impact of these nonconservative energy terms on the overall accuracy and physical realism of the oceans is difficult to ascertain, an important issue is whether they could impact on transient simulations, and on the transition toward different circulation regimes associated with a significant reorganization of the different energy reservoirs. Some possible solutions for improvement are examined. It is thus found that the term (2) can be substantially reduced by at least one order of magnitude by using conservative temperature instead of potential temperature. Using the anelastic approximation, however, which was initially thought as a possible way to greatly improve the accuracy of the energy budget, would only marginally reduce the term (4) with no impact on the terms (1), (2) and (3).

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part II: Conceptual frameworks

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasing complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I), published in the previous issue, reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develop conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to (1) building simulation scientists and designers (2) initiating a dialogue between scientists and engineers, and (3) stimulating future research on a wide range of issues involved in designing and managing building environmental systems.

Non-intrusive monitoring of atmospheric CO2 in analogue models of terrestrial carbon cycle

1. Closed Ecological Systems (CES) are small manmade ecosystems which do not have any material exchange with the surrounding environment. Recent ecological and technological advances enable successful establishment and maintenance of CES, making them a suitable tool for detecting and measuring subtle feedbacks and mechanisms. 2. As a part of an analogue (physical) C cycle modelling experiment, we developed a non-intrusive methodology to control the internal environment and to monitor atmospheric CO2 concentration inside 16 replicated CES. Whilst maintaining an air-tight seal of all CES, this approach allowed for access to the CO2 measuring equipment for periodic re-calibration and repairs. 3. To ensure reliable cross-comparison of CO2 observations between individual CES units and to minimise the cost of the system, only one CO2 sampling unit was used. An ADC BioScientific OP-2 (open-path) analyser mounted on a swinging arm was passing over a set of 16 measuring cells. Each cell was connected to an individual CES with air continuously circulating between them. 4. Using this setup, we were able to continuously measure several environmental variables and CO2 concentration within each closed system, allowing us to study minute effects of changing temperature on C fluxes within each CES. The CES and the measuring cells showed minimal air leakage during an experimental run lasting, on average, 3 months. The CO2 analyser assembly performed reliably for over 2 years, however an early iteration of the present design proved to be sensitive to positioning errors. 5. We indicate how the methodology can be further improved and suggest possible avenues where future CES based research could be applied.

Visual surveillance using deformable models of vehicles

This paper presents recent developments to a vision-based traffic surveillance system which relies extensively on the use of geometrical and scene context. Firstly, a highly parametrised 3-D model is reported, able to adopt the shape of a wide variety of different classes of vehicle (e.g. cars, vans, buses etc.), and its subsequent specialisation to a generic car class which accounts for commonly encountered types of car (including saloon, batchback and estate cars). Sample data collected from video images, by means of an interactive tool, have been subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) to define a deformable model having 6 degrees of freedom. Secondly, a new pose refinement technique using “active” models is described, able to recover both the pose of a rigid object, and the structure of a deformable model; an assessment of its performance is examined in comparison with previously reported “passive” model-based techniques in the context of traffic surveillance. The new method is more stable, and requires fewer iterations, especially when the number of free parameters increases, but shows somewhat poorer convergence. Typical applications for this work include robot surveillance and navigation tasks.

On the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport to climate change in coupled climate models

The CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) models show a consistent intensification and poleward shift of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean during the 21st century. However, the responses of the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents (ACC) show great diversity in these models, with many even showing reductions in transport. To obtain some understanding of diverse responses in the ACC transport, we investigate both external atmospheric and internal oceanic processes that control the ACC transport responses in these models. While the strengthened westerlies act to increase the tilt of isopycnal surfaces and hence the ACC transport through Ekman pumping effects, the associated changes in buoyancy forcing generally tend to reduce the surface meridional density gradient. The steepening of isopycnal surfaces induced by increased wind forcing leads to enhanced (parameterized) eddy-induced transports that act to reduce the isopycnal slopes. There is also considerable narrowing of the ACC that tends to reduce the ACC transport, caused mainly by the poleward shifts of the subtropical gyres and to a lesser extent by the equatorward expansions of the subpolar gyres in some models. If the combined effect of these retarding processes is larger than that of enhanced Ekman pumping, the ACC transport will be reduced. In addition, the effect of Ekman pumping on the ACC is reduced in weakly stratified models. These findings give insight into the reliability of IPCC-class model predictions of the Southern Ocean circulation, and into the observed decadal-scale steady ACC transport.

Stable reduced-order models for discrete-time systems

The Routh-stability method is employed to reduce the order of discrete-time system transfer functions. It is shown that the Routh approximant is well suited to reduce both the denominator and the numerator polynomials, although alternative methods, such as PadÃ�Â(c)-Markov approximation, are also used to fit the model numerator coefficients.

Combining satellite data and models to estimate cloud radiative effect at the surface and in the atmosphere

Satellite measurements and numerical forecast model reanalysis data are used to compute an updated estimate of the cloud radiative effect on the global multi-annual mean radiative energy budget of the atmosphere and surface. The cloud radiative cooling effect through reflection of shortwave radiation dominates over the longwave heating effect, resulting in a net cooling of the climate system of –21 Wm-2. The shortwave radiative effect of cloud is primarily manifest as a reduction in the solar radiation absorbed at the surface of -53 Wm-2. Clouds impact longwave radiation by heating the moist tropical atmosphere (up to around 40 Wm-2 for global annual means) while enhancing the radiative cooling of the atmosphere over other regions, in particular higher latitudes and sub-tropical marine stratocumulus regimes. While clouds act to cool the climate system during the daytime, the cloud greenhouse effect heats the climate system at night. The influence of cloud radiative effect on determining cloud feedbacks and changes in the water cycle are discussed.

Dielectric properties of process cheese from 0.3 to 3 Ghz

Dielectric properties of 16 process cheeses were determined over the frequency range 0.3-3 GHz. The effect of temperature on the dielectric properties of process cheeses were investigated at temperature intervals of 10 degrees C between 5 and 85 degrees C. Results showed that the dielectric constant decreased gradually as frequency increased, for all cheeses. The dielectric loss factor (epsilon") decreased from above 125 to below 12 as frequency increased. epsilon' was highest at 5 degrees C and generally decreased up to a temperature between 55 and 75 degrees C. epsilon" generally increased with increasing temperature for high and medium moisture/fat ratio cheeses. epsilon" decreased with temperature between 5 and 55 degrees C and then increased, for low moisture/fat ratio cheese. Partial least square regression models indicated that epsilon' and epsilon" could be used as a quality control screening application to measure moisture content and inorganic salt content of process cheese, respectively. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..