How much is corporate cash-pooling worth? Modelling and simulation

The paper analyzes a special corporate banking product, the so called cash-pool, which gained remarkable popularity in the recent years as firms try to centralize and manage their liquidity more efficiently. The novelty of this paper is the formalization of a valuation model which can serve as a basis for a Monte Carlo simulation to assess the most important benefits of the firms arising from the pooling of their cash holdings. The literature emphasizes several benefits of cash-pooling such as interest rate savings, economy of scale and reduced cash-flow volatility. The presented model focuses on the interest rate savings complemented with a new aspect: the reduced counterparty risk toward the bank. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the value of a cash-pool is higher in case of firms with large, diverse and volatile cash-flows having less access to the capital markets especially if the partner bank is risky and offers a high interest spread. It is also shown that cash-pooling is not the privilege of large multinational firms any more as the initial direct costs can be easily regained within a year even in the case of SMEs.

A fresh look at decision making in international investment choices: Firm international coherence and home-host country relatedness

Understanding how decisions for international investments are made and how this affects the overall pattern of investments and firm’s performance is of particular importance both in strategy and international business research. This dissertation introduced first home-host country relatedness (HHCR) as the degree to which countries are efficiently combined within the investment portfolios of firms. It theorized and demonstrated that HHCR will vary with the motivation for investments along at least two key dimensions: the nature of foreign investments and the connectedness of potential host countries to the rest of the world. Drawing on cognitive psychology and decision-making research, it developed a theory of strategic decision making proposing that strategic solutions are chosen close to a convenient anchor. Building on research on memory imprinting, it also proposed that managers tend to rely on older knowledge representation. In the context of international investment decisions, managers use their home countries as an anchor and are more likely to choose as a site for foreign investments host countries that are ‘close’ to the home country. These decisions are also likely to rely more strongly on closeness to time invariant country factors of historic and geographic nature rather than time-variant institutions. Empirical tests using comprehensive investments data by all public multinational companies (MNC) worldwide, or over 15,000 MNCs with over half a million subsidiaries, support the claims. Finally, the dissertation introduced the concept of International Coherence (IC) defined as the degree to which an MNE’s network comprises countries that are related. It was hypothesized that maintaining a high level of coherence is important for firm performance and will enhance it. Also, the presence of international coherence mitigates some of the negative effects of unrelated product diversification. Empirical tests using data on foreign investments of over 20,000 public firms, while also developing a home-host country relatedness index for up to 24,300 home-host pairs, provided support for the theory advanced.

PROTEOMIC ANALYSIS OF WOLBACHIA SYMBIOSIS WITHIN THE DROSOPHILA OVARY

Wolbachia pipientis are bacterial endosymbionts carried by millions of invertebrate species, including ~40% of insect species and some filarial nematodes. In insects, basic Wolbachia research has potential applications in controlling vector borne disease. Conversely, Wolbachia of filarial nematodes are causative agents of neglected tropical diseases such as lymphatic filariasis and African river blindness. However, remarkably little is known about how Wolbachia interact with their hosts at the molecular level. Understanding this is important to inform the basis for symbiosis and help prevent human disease. I used a high-throughput proteomics approach to study how Drosophila host cells are modified by Wolbachia infection. This analysis identified 23 Drosophila proteins that significantly changed in amount as a result of Wolbachia infection. A subset of differentially abundant host proteins were consistent with Wolbachia-associated phenotypes reported previously. This study also provides the first ever discovery-based evidence for a Wolbachia-associated change in maternal germline histone loads, which has possible implications in Rescue of a common Wolbachia-induced reproductive manipulation known as Cytoplasmic Incompatibility.

Derivation of base-line geochemistry, petrography, and isotopic data for the host rocks to the Lucky Strike deposit and comparison with data from other alteration zones, Buchans Mining Camp, Newfoundland

The Buchans ore bodies of central Newfoundland represent some of the highest grade VMS deposits ever mined. These Kuroko-type deposits are also known for the well developed and preserved nature of the mechanically transported deposits. The deposits are hosted in Cambro-Ordovician, dominantly calc-alkaline, bimodal volcanic and epiclastic sequences of the Notre Dame Subzone, Newfoundland Appalachians. Stratigraphic relationships in this zone are complicated by extensively developed, brittledominated Silurian thrust faulting. Hydrothermal alteration of host rocks is a common feature of nearly all VMS deposits, and the recognition of these zones has been a key exploration tool. Alteration of host rocks has long been described to be spatially associated with the Buchans ore bodies, most notably with the larger in-situ deposits. This report represents a base-line study in which a complete documentation of the geochemical variance, in terms of both primary (igneous) and alteration effects, is presented from altered volcanic rocks in the vicinity of the Lucky Strike deposit (LSZ), the largest in-situ deposit in the Buchans camp. Packages of altered rocks also occur away from the immediate mining areas and constitute new targets for exploration. These zones, identified mostly by recent and previous drilling, represent untested targets and include the Powerhouse (PHZ), Woodmans Brook (WBZ) and Airport (APZ) alteration zones, as well as the Middle Branch alteration zone (MBZ), which represents a more distal alteration facies related to Buchans ore-formation. Data from each of these zones were compared to those from the LSZ in order to evaluate their relative propectivity. Derived litho geochemical data served two functions: (i) to define primary (igneous) trends and (ii) secondary alteration trends. Primary trends were established using immobile, or conservative, elements (i. e., HFSE, REE, Th, Ti0₂, Al₂0₃, P₂0₅). From these, altered volcanic rocks were interpreted in terms of composition (e.g., basalt - rhyodacite) and magmatic affinity (e.g., calc-alkaline vs. tholeiitic). The information suggests that bimodality is a common feature of all zones, with most rocks plotting as either basalt/andesite or dacite (or rhyodacite); andesitic senso stricto compositions are rare. Magmatic affinities are more varied and complex, but indicate that all units are arc volcanic sequences. Rocks from the LSZ/MBZ represent a transitional to calc-alkalic sequence, however, a slight shift in key geochemical discriminants occurs between the foot-wall to the hanging-wall. Specifically, mafic and felsic lavas of the foot-wall are of transitional (or mildly calc-alkaline) affinity whereas the hanging-wall rocks are relatively more strongly calc-alkaline as indicated by enriched LREE/HREE and higher ZrN, NbN and other ratios in the latter. The geochemical variations also serve as a means to separate the units (at least the felsic rocks) into hanging-wall and foot-wall sequences, therefore providing a valuable exploration tool. Volcanic rocks from the WBZ/PHZ (and probably the APZ) are more typical of tholeiitic to transitional suites, yielding flatter mantlenormalized REE patterns and lower ZrN ratios. Thus, the relationships between the immediate mining area (represented by LSZ/MBZ) and the Buchans East (PHZ/WBZ) and the APZ are uncertain. Host rocks for all zones consist of mafic to felsic volcanic rocks, though the proportion of pyroclastic and epiclastic rocks, is greatest at the LSZ. Phenocryst assemblages and textures are common in all zones, with minor exceptions, and are not useful for discrimination purposes. Felsic rocks from all zones are dominated by sericiteclay+/- silica alteration, whereas mafic rocks are dominated by chlorite- quartz- sericite alteration. Pyrite is ubiquitous in all moderately altered rocks and minor associated base metal sulphides occur locally. The exception is at Lucky Strike, where stockwork quartzveining contains abundant base-metal mineralization and barite. Rocks completely comprised of chlorite (chloritite) also occur in the LSZ foot-wall. In addition, K-feldspar alteration occurs in felsic volcanic rocks at the MBZ associated with Zn-Pb-Ba and, notably, without chlorite. This zone represents a peripheral, but proximal, zone of alteration induced by lower temperature hydrothermal fluids, presumably with little influence from seawater. Alteration geochemistry was interpreted from raw data as well as from mass balanced (recalculated) data derived from immobile element pairs. The data from the LSZ/MBZ indicate a range in the degree of alteration from only minor to severe modification of precursor compositions. Ba tends to show a strong positive correlation with K₂0, although most Ba occurs as barite. With respect to mass changes, Al₂0₃, Ti0₂ and P₂0₅ were shown to be immobile. Nearly all rocks display mass loss of Na₂O, CaO, and Sr reflecting feldspar destruction. These trends are usually mirrored by K₂0-Rb and MgO addition, indicating sericitic and chloritic alteration, respectively. More substantial gains ofK₂0 often occur in rocks with K-feldspar alteration, whereas a few samples also displayed excessive MgO enrichment and represent chloritites. Fe₂0₃ indicates both chlorite and sulphide formation. Si0₂ addition is almost always the case for the altered mafic rocks as silica often infills amygdules and replaces the finer tuffaceous material. The felsic rocks display more variability in Si0₂. Silicic, sericitic and chloritic alteration trends were observed from the other zones, but not K-feldspar, chloritite, or barite. Microprobe analysis of chlorites, sericites and carbonates indicate: (i) sericites from all zones are defined as muscovite and are not phengitic; (ii) at the LSZ, chlorites ranged from Fe-Mg chlorites (pycnochlorite) to Mg-rich chlorite (penninite), with the latter occurring in the stockwork zone and more proximal alteration facies; (iii) chlorites from the WBZ were typical of those from the more distal alteration facies of the LSZ, plotting as ripidolite to pycnochlorite; (iv) conversely, chlorite from the PHZ plot with Mg-Al-rich compositions (chlinochlore to penninite); and (v) carbonate species from each zone are also varied, with calcite occurring in each zone, in addition to dolomite and ankerite in the PHZ and WBZ, respectively. Lead isotope ratios for galena separates from the different various zones, when combined with data from older studies, tend to cluster into four distinctive fields. Overall, the data plot on a broad mixing line and indicate evolution in a relatively low-μ environment. Data from sulphide stringers in altered MBZ rocks, as well as from clastic sulphides (Sandfill prospect), plot in the Buchans ore field, as do the data for galena from altered rocks in the APZ. Samples from the Buchans East area are even more primitive than the Buchans ores, with lead from the PHZ plotting with the Connel Option prospect and data from the WBZ matching that of the Skidder prospect. A sample from a newly discovered debris flow-type sulphide occurrence (Middle Branch East) yields lead isotope ratios that are slightly more radiogenic than Buchans and plot with the Mary March alteration zone. Data within each cluster are interpreted to represent derivation from individual hydrothermal systems in which metals were derived from a common source.

Methods of modelling people using discrete-event simulation

Discrete-event simulation (DES) is a developed technology used to model manufacturing and service systems. However, although the importance of modelling people in a DES has been recognised, there is little guidance on how this can be achieved in practice. The results from a literature review were used in order to identify examples of the use of DES to model people. Each article was examined in order to determine the method used to model people within the simulation study. It was found that there are no common methods but a diverse range of approaches used to model human behaviour in DES. This paper provides an outline of the approaches used to model people in terms of their decision making, availability for work, task performance and arrival rate. The outcome brings together the current knowledge in this area and will be of interest to researchers considering developing a methodology for modelling people in DES and to practitioners engaged with a simulation project involving the model ling of people’s behaviour.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling in drug delivery

The application of pharmacokinetic modelling within the drug development field essentially allows one to develop a quantitative description of the temporal behaviour of a compound of interest at a tissue/organ level, by identifying and defining relationships between a dose of a drug and dependent variables. In order to understand and characterise the pharmacokinetics of a drug, it is often helpful to employ pharmacokinetic modelling using empirical or mechanistic approaches. Pharmacokinetic models can be developed within mathematical and statistical commercial software such as MATLAB using traditional mathematical and computation coding, or by using the Simbiology Toolbox available within MATLAB for a graphical user interface approach to developing pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. For formulations dosed orally, a prerequisite for clinical activity is the entry of the drug into the systemic circulation.

Layered graphitic carbon host formation during liquid-free solid state growth of metal pyrophosphates

We report a successful ligand- and liquid-free solid state route to form metal pyrophosphates within a layered graphitic carbon matrix through a single step approach involving pyrolysis of previously synthesized organometallic derivatives of a cyclotriphosphazene. In this case, we show how single crystal Mn2P2O7 can be formed on either the micro- or the nanoscale in the complete absence of solvents or solutions by an efficient combustion process using rationally designed macromolecular trimer precursors, and present evidence and a mechanism for layered graphite host formation. Using in situ Raman spectroscopy, infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, high resolution electron microscopy, thermogravimetric and differential scanning calorimetric analysis, and near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure examination, we monitor the formation process of a layered, graphitic carbon in the matrix. The identification of thermally and electrically conductive graphitic carbon host formation is important for the further development of this general ligand-free synthetic approach for inorganic nanocrystal growth in the solid state, and can be extended to form a range of transition metals pyrophosphates. For important energy storage applications, the method gives the ability to form oxide and (pyro)phosphates within a conductive, intercalation possible, graphitic carbon as host–guest composites directly on substrates for high rate Li-ion battery and emerging alternative positive electrode materials

Improving the use of G-CSF during chemotherapy using physiological mathematical modelling : a quantitative systems pharmacology approach

La diminution des doses administrées ou même la cessation complète d'un traitement chimiothérapeutique est souvent la conséquence de la réduction du nombre de neutrophiles, qui sont les globules blancs les plus fréquents dans le sang. Cette réduction dans le nombre absolu des neutrophiles, aussi connue sous le nom de myélosuppression, est précipitée par les effets létaux non spécifiques des médicaments anti-cancéreux, qui, parallèlement à leur effet thérapeutique, produisent aussi des effets toxiques sur les cellules saines. Dans le but d'atténuer cet impact myélosuppresseur, on administre aux patients un facteur de stimulation des colonies de granulocytes recombinant humain (rhG-CSF), une forme exogène du G-CSF, l'hormone responsable de la stimulation de la production des neutrophiles et de leurs libération dans la circulation sanguine. Bien que les bienfaits d'un traitement prophylactique avec le G-CSF pendant la chimiothérapie soient bien établis, les protocoles d'administration demeurent mal définis et sont fréquemment déterminés ad libitum par les cliniciens. Avec l'optique d'améliorer le dosage thérapeutique et rationaliser l'utilisation du rhG-CSF pendant le traitement chimiothérapeutique, nous avons développé un modèle physiologique du processus de granulopoïèse, qui incorpore les connaissances actuelles de pointe relatives à la production des neutrophiles des cellules souches hématopoïétiques dans la moelle osseuse. À ce modèle physiologique, nous avons intégré des modèles pharmacocinétiques/pharmacodynamiques (PK/PD) de deux médicaments: le PM00104 (Zalypsis®), un médicament anti-cancéreux, et le rhG-CSF (filgrastim). En se servant des principes fondamentaux sous-jacents à la physiologie, nous avons estimé les paramètres de manière exhaustive sans devoir recourir à l'ajustement des données, ce qui nous a permis de prédire des données cliniques provenant de 172 patients soumis au protocol CHOP14 (6 cycles de chimiothérapie avec une période de 14 jours où l'administration du rhG-CSF se fait du jour 4 au jour 13 post-chimiothérapie). En utilisant ce modèle physio-PK/PD, nous avons démontré que le nombre d'administrations du rhG-CSF pourrait être réduit de dix (pratique actuelle) à quatre ou même trois administrations, à condition de retarder le début du traitement prophylactique par le rhG-CSF. Dans un souci d'applicabilité clinique de notre approche de modélisation, nous avons investigué l'impact de la variabilité PK présente dans une population de patients, sur les prédictions du modèle, en intégrant des modèles PK de population (Pop-PK) des deux médicaments. En considérant des cohortes de 500 patients in silico pour chacun des cinq scénarios de variabilité plausibles et en utilisant trois marqueurs cliniques, soient le temps au nadir des neutrophiles, la valeur du nadir, ainsi que l'aire sous la courbe concentration-effet, nous avons établi qu'il n'y avait aucune différence significative dans les prédictions du modèle entre le patient-type et la population. Ceci démontre la robustesse de l'approche que nous avons développée et qui s'apparente à une approche de pharmacologie quantitative des systèmes (QSP). Motivés par l'utilisation du rhG-CSF dans le traitement d'autres maladies, comme des pathologies périodiques telles que la neutropénie cyclique, nous avons ensuite soumis l'étude du modèle au contexte des maladies dynamiques. En mettant en évidence la non validité du paradigme de la rétroaction des cytokines pour l'administration exogène des mimétiques du G-CSF, nous avons développé un modèle physiologique PK/PD novateur comprenant les concentrations libres et liées du G-CSF. Ce nouveau modèle PK a aussi nécessité des changements dans le modèle PD puisqu’il nous a permis de retracer les concentrations du G-CSF lié aux neutrophiles. Nous avons démontré que l'hypothèse sous-jacente de l'équilibre entre la concentration libre et liée, selon la loi d'action de masse, n'est plus valide pour le G-CSF aux concentrations endogènes et mènerait en fait à la surestimation de la clairance rénale du médicament. En procédant ainsi, nous avons réussi à reproduire des données cliniques obtenues dans diverses conditions (l'administration exogène du G-CSF, l'administration du PM00104, CHOP14). Nous avons aussi fourni une explication logique des mécanismes responsables de la réponse physiologique aux deux médicaments. Finalement, afin de mettre en exergue l’approche intégrative en pharmacologie adoptée dans cette thèse, nous avons démontré sa valeur inestimable pour la mise en lumière et la reconstruction des systèmes vivants complexes, en faisant le parallèle avec d’autres disciplines scientifiques telles que la paléontologie et la forensique, où une approche semblable a largement fait ses preuves. Nous avons aussi discuté du potentiel de la pharmacologie quantitative des systèmes appliquées au développement du médicament et à la médecine translationnelle, en se servant du modèle physio-PK/PD que nous avons mis au point.

Simulating Granite Emplacement and Deformation with Centrifuge Analogue Modelling

The Greater Himalayan leucogranites are a discontinuous suite of intrusions emplaced in a thickened crust during the Miocene southward ductile extrusion of the Himalayan metamorphic core. Melt-induced weakening is thought to have played a critical role in strain localization that facilitated the extrusion. Recent advancements in centrifuge analogue modelling techniques allow for the replication of a broader range of crustal deformation behaviors, enhancing our understanding of large hot orogens. Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) is commonly used in centrifuge experiments to model weak melt zones. Difficulties in handling PDMS had, until now, limited its emplacement in models prior to any deformation. A new modelling technique has been developed where PDMS is emplaced into models that have been subjected to some shortening. This technique aims to better understand the effects of melt on strain localization and potential decoupling between structural levels within an evolving orogenic system. Models are subjected to an early stage of shortening, followed by the introduction of PDMS, and then a final stage of shortening. Theoretical percentages of partial melt and their effect on rock strength are considered when adding a specific percentage of PDMS in each model. Due to the limited size of the models, only PDMS sheets of 3 mm thickness were used, which varied in length and width. Within undeformed packages, minimal surface and internal deformation occurred when PDMS is emplaced in the lower layer of the model, showing a vertical volume increase of ~20% within the package; whereas the emplacement of PDMS into the middle layer showed internal dragging of the middle laminations into the lower layer and a vertical volume increase ~30%. Emplacement of PDMS results in ~7% shortening for undeformed and deformed models. Deformed models undergo ~20% additional shortening after two rounds of deformation. Strain localization and decoupling between units occur in deformed models where the degree of deformation changes based on the amount of partial melt present. Surface deformation visible by the formation of a bulge, mode 1 extension cracks and varying surface strain ellipses varies depending if PDMS is present. Better control during emplacement is exhibited when PDMS is added into cooler models, resulting in reduced internal deformation within the middle layer.

Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

An impulsive differential equation model for Marek's disease

Many dynamical processes are subject to abrupt changes in state. Often these perturbations can be periodic and of short duration relative to the evolving process. These types of phenomena are described well by what are referred to as impulsive differential equations, systems of differential equations coupled with discrete mappings in state space. In this thesis we employ impulsive differential equations to model disease transmission within an industrial livestock barn. In particular we focus on the poultry industry and a viral disease of poultry called Marek's disease. This system lends itself well to impulsive differential equations. Entire cohorts of poultry are introduced and removed from a barn concurrently. Additionally, Marek's disease is transmitted indirectly and the viral particles can survive outside the host for weeks. Therefore, depopulating, cleaning, and restocking of the barn are integral factors in modelling disease transmission and can be completely captured by the impulsive component of the model. Our model allows us to investigate how modern broiler farm practices can make disease elimination difficult or impossible to achieve. It also enables us to investigate factors that may contribute to virulence evolution. Our model suggests that by decrease the cohort duration or by decreasing the flock density, Marek's disease can be eliminated from a barn with no increase in cleaning effort. Unfortunately our model also suggests that these practices will lead to disease evolution towards greater virulence. Additionally, our model suggests that if intensive cleaning between cohorts does not rid the barn of disease, it may drive evolution and cause the disease to become more virulent.

Re-modelling clay: ceramic practice and the museum in Britain (1970-2014)

This thesis analyses how the dialogue between ceramic practice and museum practice has contributed to the discourse on ceramics. Taking Mieke Bal’s theory of exposition as a starting point, it explores how ‘gestures of showing’ have been used to frame art‑oriented ceramic practice. Examining the gaps between the statements these gestures have made about and through ceramics, and the objects they seek to expose, it challenges the idea that ceramics as a category of artistic practice has ‘expanded.’ Instead, it forwards the idea that ceramics is an integrative practice, through which practitioners produce works that can be read within a range of artistic (and non-artistic) frameworks. Focusing on activity in British museums between 1970 and 2014, it takes a thematic and broadly chronological approach, interrogating the interrelationship of ceramic practice, museum practice and political and critical shifts at different points in time. Revealing an ambiguity at the core of the category ‘ceramics,’ it outlines numerous instances in which ‘gestures of showing’ have brought the logic of this categorisation into question, only to be returned to the discourse on ‘ceramics’ as a distinct category through acts of institutional recuperation. Suggesting that ceramics practitioners who wish to move beyond this category need to make their vitae as dialogic as their works, it indicates that many of those trying to raise the profile of ‘ceramics’ have also been complicit in separating it from broader artistic practice. Acknowledging that those working within institutions that sustain this distinction are likely to re-make, rather than reconsider ceramics, it leaves the ball in their court.

Building Information Modelling in UK Construction Projects: A State of the Art Review

This paper aims to present a state-of-the-art review of the scope and practical implications of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) platform in the UK construction practice. Theoretical developments suggest that BIM is an integration of both product and process innovation, not just a disparate set of software tools. BIM provides effective collaboration, visual representation and data management, which enable the smooth flow of information throughout the project’s lifecycle. The most frequently reported benefits are related to Capital Cost (capex) and Operational costs (opex) and time savings. Key challenges, however, focus on the interoperability of software, capital installation costs, in-house experience, client preference and cultural issues within design teams and within the organisation. The paper concludes with a critical commentary on the changing roles and a process required to implement BIM in UK construction projects, and suggests areas for further research.

Unstructured grid modelling of offshore wind farm impacts on seasonally stratified shelf seas

Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world’s oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometrescale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

Unstructured grid modelling of offshore wind farm impacts on seasonally stratified shelf seas

Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world’s oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometrescale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.