Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Culex saltanensis Dyar, 1928: natural vector of Plasmodium juxtanucleare in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Searching for the natural vector of Plasmodium juxtanucleare in an enzootic locality: Granjas Calábria (33% of the chickens infected), Jacarepaguá, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 13 comparative captures of mosquitoes were carried out, simultaneously on man (out-doors) and on chiken (in a poultry-yard), between 6 and 9 p.m., from September to March 1989. Culex saltanensis was the most frequent species in captures on chicken, accounting for 41.7% of the mosquitoes collected on this bait, showing to be highly ornithophilic (90% captured on chicken versus 10% on man). Seven specimens of Cx. saltanensis were found naturally infected in granjas Calábria: five with mature pedunculate oocysts and two with sporozoites (on in the haemocoele and one in the salivary glands). These sporozoites porudced an infection by P. juxtanucleare in a chick, which had parasitemia on day 41 after inoculation. One Cx. coronator was found with mature pedunculate oocysts. Culex saltanensis was regarded as primary vector of P. juxtanucleare in Rio de Janeiro for being highly ornithophilic and in enough density to maintain the transmission, having been found with infective sporozoites in its salivary glands, and being susceptible to the parasite and able to transmit experimentally it by the bite.

Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions

There is a vast literature that specifies Bayesian shrinkage priors for vector autoregressions (VARs) of possibly large dimensions. In this paper I argue that many of these priors are not appropriate for multi-country settings, which motivates me to develop priors for panel VARs (PVARs). The parametric and semi-parametric priors I suggest not only perform valuable shrinkage in large dimensions, but also allow for soft clustering of variables or countries which are homogeneous. I discuss the implications of these new priors for modelling interdependencies and heterogeneities among different countries in a panel VAR setting. Monte Carlo evidence and an empirical forecasting exercise show clear and important gains of the new priors compared to existing popular priors for VARs and PVARs.

Are dead Triatoma infestans a competent vector of Trypanosoma cruzi?

After Triatoma infestans death, Trypanosoma cruzi survived several days, maintaining the ability to infect a vertebrate host. Dead bugs from an endemic area collected during an official spraying comapign showed mobile rectal tripanosomes up to 14 days after vector death. Two days after vector death2, 760 tripomastigotes were found alive in its rectal material. However, the number of mobile tripomastigotes decreased significantly from the 5th day after death. Laboratory proofs with third and fifth nymphal stage showed similar results. Living tripanosomes were found in their rectal material at 10 days in third stage and even at 30 days in fifth nymphal stage. The mean number of tripomastigotes had no changes up to 10 days in third nymphal stage and increased significantly from 1 to 10 days in the fifth stage. Conjuctival instillation as well as intraperitoneal innoculation to mice, of metacyclic forms from dead T. infestans produced infection in the vertebrate host. Present results show that human contact with dead vector highly probable in summer and living and infective T. cruzi are available for transmision in the vector.

Influence of short time exposure to an insect growth regulator, hexaflumuron, on mortality and adult emergence of vector mosquitoes

Hexaflumuron, an insect growth regulator (IGR), was found to greatly affect the development of immatures and emergence of adults of three species of vector mosquitoes, Culex quinquefasciatus, Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi, when larvae were subjected to short time exposure of < or = 1h. This IGR could completely prevent adult emergence even at a minimum exposure time of 10 min at 0.001, 0.01 and 0.1 mg/l. On treatment, larval and pupal mortality as well as varying degrees of morphogenetic abnormalities were induced in immatures and adults of the three species. Four weeks of control achieved in a slow moving sullage canal breeding Culex quinquefasciatus indicates that this IGR can be of use in such breeding habitats.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the spine at 3-T: feasibility, optimization of b-value and utility to differentiate benign from pathological vertebral compression fractures

Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility, determine the optimal b-value, and assess the utility of 3-T diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) of the spine in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.Methods and Materials: Twenty patients with 38 vertebral compression fractures (24 benign, 14 pathologic) and 20 controls (total: 23 men, 17 women, mean age 56.2years) were included from December 2010 to May 2011 in this IRB-approved prospective study. MR imaging of the spine was performed on a 3-T unit with T1-w, fat-suppressed T2-w, gadolinium-enhanced fat-suppressed T1-w and zoomed-EPI (2D RF excitation pulse combined with reduced field-of-view single-shot echo-planar readout) diffusion-w (b-values: 0, 300, 500 and 700s/mm2) sequences. Two radiologists independently assessed zoomed-EPI image quality in random order using a 4-point scale: 1=excellent to 4=poor. They subsequently measured apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in normal vertebral bodies and compression fractures, in consensus.Results: Lower b-values correlated with better image quality scores, with significant differences between b=300 (mean±SD=2.6±0.8), b=500 (3.0±0.7) and b=700 (3.6±0.6) (all p<0.001). Mean ADCs of normal vertebral bodies (n=162) were 0.23, 0.17 and 0.11×10-3mm2/s with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. In contrast, mean ADCs were 0.89, 0.70 and 0.59×10-3mm2/s for benign vertebral compression fractures and 0.79, 0.66 and 0.51×10-3mm2/s for pathologic fractures with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. No significant difference was found between ADCs of benign and pathologic fractures.Conclusion: 3-T DWI of the spine is feasible and lower b-values (300s/mm2) are recommended. However, our preliminary results show no advantage of DWI in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.

The level of infestation with the vector of cattle babesiosis in Argentina

Studies were carried out to determine the differential aptitude to sustain the only vector of cattle babesiosis in Argentina, the tick Boophilus microplus, throughout the infested region of this country. Tick counts on Bos taurus cattle were used as the main criterion to classify favourable (F), intermediate (I) and unfavourable (U) areas for its development. The geographical limits of each area set up using data of non-parasitic tick stages, temperature, water balance and map recognition of flooded and unflooded zones. The F area contained 16.5 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência) ha with a cattle population of 6 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência); the I and U areas had 25 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência ha with 2.7 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência) cattle and 198 x 10 (elevado a sexta potência) with population of 2.4 x 10(elevado a sexta potência) cattle, respectively. Research on the relationship amongst Babesia-Boophilus-cattle is needed in the F area for tick development which coincides with the best region for cattle breeding.

Optimization and inhibition of the adherent ability of Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes

The vast majority of the 1-2 million malaria associated deaths that occur each year are due to anemia and cerebral malaria (the attachment of erythrocytes containing mature forms of Plasmodium falciparum to the endothelial cells that line the vascular beds of the brain). A "model" system"for the study of cerebral malaria employs amelanotic melanoma cells as the "target"cells in an vitro cytoadherence assay. Using this model system we determined that the optimum pH for adherence is 6.6 to 6.8, that high concentrations of Ca²* (50mM) result in increased levels of binding, and that the type of buffer used influences adherence (Bis Tris > MOPS > HEPES > PIPES). We also observed that the ability of infected erythrocytes to cytoadhere varied from (erythrocyte) donor to donor. We have produced murine monoclonal antibodies against P. falciparum-infected red cells which recognized modified forms of human band 3; these inhibit the adherence of infected erythrocytes to melanoma cells in a doso responsive fashion. Antimalarials (chloroquine, quinacrine, mefloquine, artemisinin), on the other hand, affected adherence in an indirect fashion i.e. since cytoadherence is due, in part to the presence of knobs on the surface of the infected erythrocyte, and knob formation is dependent on intracellular parasite growth, when plasmodial development is inhibited so is knob production, and consequently adherence is ablated.

Vector incrimination and effects of antimalarial drugs on malaria transmission and control in the Amazon Basin of Brazil

World ecosystems differ significantly and a multidisciplinary malaria control approach must be adjusted to meet these requirements. These include a comprehensive understanding of the malaria vectors, their behavior, seasonal distribution and abundance, susceptibility to insecticides (physiological and behavioral), methods to reduce the numbers of human gametocyte carriers through effective health care systems and antimalarial drug treatment, urban malaria transmission versus rural or forest malaria transmission, and the impact of vaccine development. Many malaria vectors are members of species complexes and individual relationship to malaria transmission, seasonal distribution, bitting behavior, etc. is poorly understood. Additionaly, malaria patients are not examined for circulating gametocytes and both falciparum and vivax malaria patients may be highly infective to mosquitoes after treatment with currently used antimalarial drugs. Studies on the physiological and behavioral effects of DDT and other insecticides are inconclusive and need to be evalusted.

Cytological and isoenzyme analysis of the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes of the onchocerciasis vector Simulium exiguum (Diptera: Simuliidae) in Ecuador

Four cytotypes of Simulium exiguum occur in Ecuador, where this morphospecies is the primary vector of onchocerciasis. In this paper, we give the first full description of the banding pattern of the larval polytene chromosomes of the Quevedo cytotypes differ from the chromosomal standard sequence (of the Cayapa cytotype) by the fixed inversions IIL-5 and IIL-6. The Quevedo cytotype additionally differs from the standard and Bucay cytotypes by processing a differentiated X chromosome, wich is indicated by the inversion IIS-A. As the degree of reproductive isolation between the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes has not yet been estabilished, they must be regarded as intraspecific variants of the same species. In fact, isoenzyme characterizations showed that the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes are differentiated only to the extent expected of incipient species or geographical populations. Moreover, the sibiling species status previously given to the Bucay cytotype needs be reassessed, there being inadequate analysis from areas in Ecuador where Bucay occurs in sympatry with the standard Cayapa cytotype. No isoenzyme electromorphs were discovered that identified all or mostadult females of any one (cytotype-pure) collection.

In vivo differentiation of Trypanosoma cruzi - 1. Experimental evidence of the influence of vector species on metacyclogenesis

Vector species has not hitherto been studied as influencing metacyclogenesis of Trypanosoma cruzi, while the role of the parasite strain has been frequently stressed as of dominant importance in this process. In order to fill this gap in our knowledge, metacyclogenesis was monitored in nine triatomine species. The first part of this paper presents photographs of the main and intermediate parasite stages in each vector species studied. In the second part of the study the proportional distribution of all these forms, as seen in Giemsa stained smears is summarized, thus providing an opportunity to analyze both: the length of time between the ingestion of the blood trypomastigotes and the appearance of metacyclic forms and the rates of developmental stages leading to these latter. The most remarkable observation was that metacyclogenesis rates in vivo appear to be vector dependent, reaching 50 in Rhodnius neglectus, 37 in its congener R. prolixus and being dramatically lower in the majority of Triatoma species (5 in T. sordida, 3 in T. brasiliensis and 0 in T. pseudomaculata) at the 120th day of infection. These observations suggest that through screening of different vector species it is possible to find some that are capable of minimizing or maximizing metacyclic production.