A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

A demonstration of artificial dissipation effects in some finite volume solution methods for the Navier-Stokes equations

The artificial dissipation effects in some solutions obtained with a Navier-Stokes flow solver are demonstrated. The solvers were used to calculate the flow of an artificially dissipative fluid, which is a fluid having dissipative properties which arise entirely from the solution method itself. This was done by setting the viscosity and heat conduction coefficients in the Navier-Stokes solvers to zero everywhere inside the flow, while at the same time applying the usual no-slip and thermal conducting boundary conditions at solid boundaries. An artificially dissipative flow solution is found where the dissipation depends entirely on the solver itself. If the difference between the solutions obtained with the viscosity and thermal conductivity set to zero and their correct values is small, it is clear that the artificial dissipation is dominating and the solutions are unreliable.

A shift from passive teaching at medical conferences to more interactive methods improves physician learning

Conferences that deliver interactive sessions designed to enhance physician participation, such as role play, small discussion groups, workshops, hands-on training, problem- or case-based learning and individualised training sessions, are effective for physician education.

Appropriate surveying methods in the Philippines: Can modern GPS units help?

An investigation was undertaken to test the effectiveness of two procedures for recording boundaries and plot positions for scientific studies on farms on Leyte Island, the Philippines. The accuracy of a Garmin 76 Global Positioning System (GPS) unit and a compass and chain was checked under the same conditions. Tree canopies interfered with the ability of the satellite signal to reach the GPS and therefore the GPS survey was less accurate than the compass and chain survey. Where a high degree of accuracy is required, a compass and chain survey remains the most effective method of surveying land underneath tree canopies, providing operator error is minimised. For a large number of surveys and thus large amounts of data, a GPS is more appropriate than a compass and chain survey because data are easily up-loaded into a Geographic Information System (GIS). However, under dense canopies where satellite signals cannot reach the GPS, it may be necessary to revert to a compass survey or a combination of both methods.

Analysis of heat transfer and entropy generation for a thermally developing Brinkman–Brinkman forced convection problem in a rectangular duct with isoflux walls

Heat transfer and entropy generation analysis of the thermally developing forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section, with walls maintained at a constant and uniform heat flux, is investigated based on the Brinkman flow model. The classical Galerkin method is used to obtain the fully developed velocity distribution. To solve the thermal energy equation, with the effects of viscous dissipation being included, the Extended Weighted Residuals Method (EWRM) is applied. The local (three dimensional) temperature field is solved by utilizing the Green’s function solution based on the EWRM where symbolic algebra is being used for convenience in presentation. Following the computation of the temperature field, expressions are presented for the local Nusselt number and the bulk temperature as a function of the dimensionless longitudinal coordinate, the aspect ratio, the Darcy number, the viscosity ratio, and the Brinkman number. With the velocity and temperature field being determined, the Second Law (of Thermodynamics) aspect of the problem is also investigated. Approximate closed form solutions are also presented for two limiting cases of MDa values. It is observed that decreasing the aspect ratio and MDa values increases the entropy generation rate.

Adopting turtle excluder devices in Australia and the United States: What are the differences in technology transfer, promotion, and acceptance?

Turtle excluder devices (TEDs) are being trialed on a voluntary basis in many Australian prawn (shrimp) trawl fisheries to reduce sea turtle captures. Analysis of TED introductions into shrimp trawl fisheries of the United States provided major insights into why conflicts occurred between shrimpers, conservationists, and government agencies. A conflict over the introduction and subsequent regulation of TEDs occurred because the problem and the solution were perceived differently by the various stakeholders. Attempts to negotiate and mediate the conflict broke down, resulting in litigation against the U.S. government by conservationists and shrimpers. Litigation was not an efficient resolution to the sea turtle-TED-trawl conflict but it appears that litigation was the only remaining path of resolution once the issue became polarized. We review two major Australian trawl fisheries to identify any significant differences in circumstances that may affect TED acceptance. Australian trawl fisheries are structured differently and good communication occurs between industry and researchers. TEDs are being introduced as mature technology. Furthermore, bycatch issues are of increasing concern to all stakeholders. These factors, combined with insights derived from previous conflicts concerning TEDs in the United Stares, increase the possibilities that TEDs will be introduced to Australian fishers with better acceptance.

Improved methods for predicting individual leaf area and leaf senescence in maize (Zea mays)

The ability to predict leaf area and leaf area index is crucial in crop simulation models that predict crop growth and yield. Previous studies have shown existing methods of predicting leaf area to be inadequate when applied to a broad range of cultivars with different numbers of leaves. The objectives of the study were to (i) develop generalised methods of modelling individual and total plant leaf area, and leaf senescence, that do not require constants that are specific to environments and/or genotypes, (ii) re-examine the base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence, and (iii) assess the method of calculation of individual leaf area from leaf length and leaf width in experimental work. Five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and adaptation were planted in October 1994 in south-eastern Queensland, and grown under non-limiting conditions of water and plant nutrient supplies. Additional data for maize plants with low total leaf number (12-17) grown at Katumani Research Centre, Kenya, were included to extend the range in the total leaf number per plant. The equation for the modified (slightly skewed) bell curve could be generalised for modelling individual leaf area, as all coefficients in it were related to total leaf number. Use of coefficients for individual genotypes can be avoided, and individual and total plant leaf area can be calculated from total leaf number. A single, logistic equation, relying on maximum plant leaf area and thermal time from emergence, was developed to predict leaf senescence. The base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence were 8, 34, and 40 degrees C, and apply for the whole crop-cycle when used in modelling of leaf senescence. Thus, the modelling of leaf production and senescence is simplified, improved, and generalised. Consequently, the modelling of leaf area index (LAI) and variables that rely on LAI will be improved. For experimental purposes, we found that the calculation of leaf area from leaf length and leaf width remains appropriate, though the relationship differed slightly from previously published equations.

Effects of geological inhomogeneity on high Rayleigh number steady state heat and mass transfer in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

A parametric study is carried out to investigate how geological inhomogeneity affects the pore-fluid convective flow field, the temperature distribution, and the mass concentration distribution in a fluid-saturated porous medium. The related numerical results have demonstrated that (1) the effects of both medium permeability inhomogeneity and medium thermal conductivity inhomogeneity are significant on the pore-fluid convective flow and the species concentration distribution in the porous medium; (2) the effect of medium thermal conductivity inhomogeneity is dramatic on the temperature distribution in the porous medium, but the effect of medium permeability inhomogeneity on the temperature distribution may be considerable, depending on the Rayleigh number involved in the analysis; (3) if the coupling effect between pore-fluid flow and mass transport is weak, the effect of the Lewis number is negligible on the pore-fluid convective flow and temperature distribution, hut it is significant on the species concentration distribution in the medium.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative forms of hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands

Considerable resources have been expended promoting hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes to farmers in the Philippine uplands. Despite the resources committed to research and extension, persistent adoption by farmers has been limited to low cost versions of the technology including natural vegetation and grass strips. In this paper, cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the economic returns from traditional open-field maize farming with returns from intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows, natural vegetation strips and grass strips. An erosion/productivity model, Soil Changes Under Agroforestry, was used to predict the effect of erosion on maize yields. Key informant surveys with experienced maize farmers were used to derive production budgets for the alternative farming methods. The economic incentives revealed by the cost-benefit analysis help to explain the adoption of maize farming methods in the Philippine uplands. Open-field farming without hedgerows has been by far the most popular method of maize production, often with two or more fields cropped in rotation. There is little persistent adoption of hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes because sustained maize yields are not realised rapidly enough to compensate farmers for establishment and maintenance costs. Natural vegetation and grass strips are more attractive to farmers because of lower establishment costs, and provide intermediate steps to adoption. Rural finance, commodity pricing and agrarian reform policies influence the incentives for maize farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt and maintain hedgerow intercropping.

Carrageenans from Australian representatives of the family Cystocloniaceae (Gigartinales, Rhodophyta), with description of Calliblepharis celatospora sp. nov., and transfer of Austroclonium to the family Areschougiaceae

Ten Australian representatives from seven of the 10 genera presently constituting the family Cystolcloniaceae have been analyzed for their cell-wall galactans. Included in our survey are the monotypic Australian-endemic genera Austroclonium, Gloiophyllis, Erythronaema, and Stictosporum, one species of Craspedocarpus, three species of Rhodophyllis, and two species of Calliblepharis. As one of the species of the latter genus is endemic to Western Australia and presently undescribed, we illustrate its habit and anatomical features in formally proposing to name it Calliblepharis celatospora Kraft, sp. nov. All the species surveyed essentially produce typical iota (iota)-carrageenans, with the exception of Austroclonium. The sulfated galactans from Austroclonium predominantly contain the repeating units of iota-, alpha (alpha)-, and 6'-O-methylated iota- and alpha-carrageenans; whether these exist as discrete polysaccharides or a complex hybrid structure was not resolved. Thus, Austroclonium carrageenans resemble the polysaccharides from Rhabdonia, Areschougia, and Erythroclonium. Although these latter three genera are currently included in the large gigartinalean family Solieriaceae, all produce significantly different carrageenans from Solieria itself and related genera such as Eucheuma, Kappaphycus, Betaphycus, Sarcodiotheca, Agardhiella, Sarconema, and Callophycus. In consideration of these findings, as well as of significant anatomical similarities, we provisionally recommend reestablishment of the family Rhabdoniaceae Kylin (as the family Areschougiaceae J. Agardh) for Rhabdonia, Areschougia, Erythroclonium, and Austroclonium.