Comparing time and risk preferences across three post-industrial UK cities

Date of Acceptance: 10/07/2015 The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates funds HERU. The survey was jointly funded by NHS Health Scotland and the Glasgow Centre for Population Health. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and not those of the funding bodies. The investigator team for the overall survey comprises David Walsh, Gerry McCartney, Sarah McCullough, Marjon van der Pol, Duncan Buchanan and Russell Jones.

Comparing time and risk preferences across three post-industrial UK cities

Date of Acceptance: 10/07/2015 The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates funds HERU. The survey was jointly funded by NHS Health Scotland and the Glasgow Centre for Population Health. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and not those of the funding bodies. The investigator team for the overall survey comprises David Walsh, Gerry McCartney, Sarah McCullough, Marjon van der Pol, Duncan Buchanan and Russell Jones.

The role of time and risk preferences in adherence to physician advice on health behaviour change

Acknowledgements The Interdisciplinary Chronic Disease Collaboration (ICDC) is funded through the Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research (AHFMR) Inter-disciplinary Team Grants Program. AHFMR is now Alberta Innovates – Health Solutions (AI-HS). The funding agreement ensured the authors’ independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, writing, and publishing the report. The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates funds HERU. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and not those of the funding bodies.

Mechanical and material properties of cortical and trabecular bone from cannabinoid receptor-1-null (Cnr1-/-) mice

Funding ABK was funded by a studentship from the University of Aberdeen, Institute of Medical Sciences, and the Overseas Research Students Awards Scheme Acknowledgments We are grateful to Dr J.S. Gregory for assistance with Image J and Mr K. Mackenzie for assistance with Micro-CT analysis.

Controller Time and Delay Costs - a Trade-off Analysis

Air traffic controller shortages remain a significant challenge in European ATM. Comparing different rules, we quantify the cost effectiveness of adding controller hours to Area Control Centre regulations to avert the delay cost impact on airlines. Typically, adding controller hours results in a net benefit. Distributions of delay duration and aircraft weight play an important role in determining the total cost of a regulation. Errors are likely to be incurred when analysing performance based on average delay values, particularly at the disaggregate level.

Law and Original Contract in the Republican Thought of Immanuel Kant

This article discusses the concept of right and its identification with the power to coerce, to show a reciprocity between the original contract and the right, as a manifestation of the reciprocity between moral law and freedom, as Kant states in its Second Critique. The demonstration of this view will allow a republican stance evident in the legal and political thought of Kant, since the right of a people can only exist while the town itself is unified to enact.

Radiological and material characterization of high volume fly ash concrete

The main goal of research presented in this paper was the material and radiological characterization of high volume fly ash concrete (HVFAC) in terms of determination of natural radionuclide content and radon emanation and exhalation coefficients. All concrete samples were made with a fly ash content between 50% and 70% of the total amount of cementitious materials from one coal burning power plant in Serbia. Physical (fresh and hardened concrete density) and mechanical properties (compressive strength, splitting tensile strength and modulus of elasticity) of concrete were tested. The radionuclide content (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) and radon massic exhalation of HVFAC samples were determined using gamma spectrometry. Determination of massic exhalation rates of HVFAC and its components using radon accumulation chamber techniques combined with a radon monitor was performed. The results show a beneficial effect of pozzolanic activity since the increase in fly ash content resulted in an increase in compressive strength of HVFAC by approximately 20% for the same mass of cement used in the mixtures. On the basis of the obtained radionuclide content of concrete components the I -indices of different HVFAC samples were calculated and compared with measured values (0.27e0.32), which were significantly below the recommended 1.0 index value. The prediction was relatively close to the measured values as the ratio between the calculated and measured I-index ranged between 0.89 and 1.14. Collected results of mechanical and radiological properties and performed calculations clearly prove that all 10 designed concretes with a certain type of fly ash are suitable for structural and non-structural applications both from a material and radiological point of view.

Quantifying nitrous oxide emissions from sugarcane cropping systems : Optimum sampling time and frequency

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soil are often measured using the manual static chamber method. Manual gas sampling is labour intensive, so a minimal sampling frequency that maintains the accuracy of measurements would be desirable. However, the high temporal (diurnal, daily and seasonal) variabilities of N2O emissions can compromise the accuracy of measurements if not addressed adequately when formulating a sampling schedule. Assessments of sampling strategies to date have focussed on relatively low emission systems with high episodicity, where a small number of the highest emission peaks can be critically important in the measurement of whole season cumulative emissions. Using year-long, automated sub-daily N2O measurements from three fertilised sugarcane fields, we undertook an evaluation of the optimum gas sampling strategies in high emission systems with relatively long emission episodes. The results indicated that sampling in the morning between 09:00–12:00, when soil temperature was generally close to the daily average, best approximated the daily mean N2O emission within 4–7% of the ‘actual’ daily emissions measured by automated sampling. Weekly sampling with biweekly sampling for one week after >20 mm of rainfall was the recommended sampling regime. It resulted in no extreme (>20%) deviations from the ‘actuals’, had a high probability of estimating the annual cumulative emissions within 10% precision, with practicable sampling numbers in comparison to other sampling regimes. This provides robust and useful guidance for manual gas sampling in sugarcane cropping systems, although further adjustments by the operators in terms of expected measurement accuracy and resource availability are encouraged. By implementing these sampling strategies together, labour inputs and errors in measured cumulative N2O emissions can be minimised. Further research is needed to quantify the spatial variability of N2O emissions within sugarcane cropping and to develop techniques for effectively addressing both spatial and temporal variabilities simultaneously.

Effect of time and diet change on the bacterial community structure throughout the gastrointestinal tract and in faeces of the northern brown bandicoot, Isoodon macrourus

A significant gap, in not only peramelid nutritional physiology but marsupial nutrition as a whole, is the lack of information relating to microorganisms of the gastrointestinal tract. This research is a preliminary investigation that will provide a baseline for comparisons among peramelids. The high degree of 16S rRNA gene clones identified in this research that are closely related to culturable bacteria suggests that additional research will enable a more complete description of the gastrointestinal bacteria of I. macrourus. Most identifiable clones belonged to Clostridium and Ruminococcus. This research has confirmed that the hindgut of I. macrourus, the caecum, proximal colon and distal colon, are the main sites for microbial activity.

Probabilistic approach of water residence time and connectivity using Markov Chains with application to tidal embayments

Markov Chain analysis was recently proposed to assess the time scales and preferential pathways into biological or physical networks by computing residence time, first passage time, rates of transfer between nodes and number of passages in a node. We propose to adapt an algorithm already published for simple systems to physical systems described with a high resolution hydrodynamic model. The method is applied to bays and estuaries on the Eastern Coast of Canada for their interest in shellfish aquaculture. Current velocities have been computed by using a 2 dimensional grid of elements and circulation patterns were summarized by averaging Eulerian flows between adjacent elements. Flows and volumes allow computing probabilities of transition between elements and to assess the average time needed by virtual particles to move from one element to another, the rate of transfer between two elements, and the average residence time of each system. We also combined transfer rates and times to assess the main pathways of virtual particles released in farmed areas and the potential influence of farmed areas on other areas. We suggest that Markov chain is complementary to other sets of ecological indicators proposed to analyse the interactions between farmed areas - e.g. depletion index, carrying capacity assessment. Markov Chain has several advantages with respect to the estimation of connectivity between pair of sites. It makes possible to estimate transfer rates and times at once in a very quick and efficient way, without the need to perform long term simulations of particle or tracer concentration.

Resistance to phosphine in Sitophilus oryzae in Australia: A national analysis of trends and frequencies over time and geographical spread

In Australia, along with many other parts of the world, fumigation with phosphine is a vital component in controlling stored grain insect pests. However, resistance is a factor that may limit the continued efficacy of this fumigant. While strong resistance to phosphine has been identified and characterised, very little information is available on the causes of its development and spread. Data obtained from a unique national resistance monitoring and management program were analysed, using Bayesian hurdle modelling, to determine which factors may be responsible. Fumigation in unsealed storages, combined with a high frequency of weak resistance, were found to be the main criteria that led to the development of strong resistance in Sitophilus oryzae. Independent development, rather than gene flow via migration, appears to be primarily responsible for the geographic incidence of strong resistance to phosphine in S. oryzae. This information can now be utilised to direct resources and education into those areas at high risk and to refine phosphine resistance management strategies.

Parents’ experiences during the transition from childhood to adolescence with Type 1 Diabetes: Parent-child relationships and support received during this time and clinical research portfolio

Background: Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) management often worsens as children become adolescents. This can be a difficult time for parents as they hand over responsibility of diabetes management to their adolescent. Objectives: To look at the experiences of parents with a child with T1D as they move to adolescence and take more responsibility for their diabetes management. To find out about parents’ experience of support during this transition. Subjects: Three parents of adolescents with T1D. Participants were recruited from the NHS Highland Paediatric Diabetes Service. Methods: Participants took part in a one-to-one semi-structured interview with a researcher. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was used to analyse the interviews and find common themes across the interviews. Results: Participants experienced worry throughout their child’s transition to adolescence. They found it difficult to let their child take responsibility for their diabetes but acknowledged that their involvement caused tensions with their adolescent. Participants’ experience was that there were a number of practical adjustments to be made with a diagnosis of T1D and educating the network around their child was important. The participants reported that the diagnosis of T1D had an impact on the whole family and not just the child with the diagnosis. The parents felt well supported medically but said that the amount of time before their first clinic appointment felt too long. All participants had concerns about their adolescent moving to the adult diabetic service. Conclusions: Participants experienced worry relating to aspects of their adolescents T1D that they could not control, but were aware of the tensions caused by trying to keep elements of control. Areas of future research were identified.

Quantification of air quality in space and time and its effects on health

The long-term adverse effects on health associated with air pollution exposure can be estimated using either cohort or spatio-temporal ecological designs. In a cohort study, the health status of a cohort of people are assessed periodically over a number of years, and then related to estimated ambient pollution concentrations in the cities in which they live. However, such cohort studies are expensive and time consuming to implement, due to the long-term follow up required for the cohort. Therefore, spatio-temporal ecological studies are also being used to estimate the long-term health effects of air pollution as they are easy to implement due to the routine availability of the required data. Spatio-temporal ecological studies estimate the health impact of air pollution by utilising geographical and temporal contrasts in air pollution and disease risk across $n$ contiguous small-areas, such as census tracts or electoral wards, for multiple time periods. The disease data are counts of the numbers of disease cases occurring in each areal unit and time period, and thus Poisson log-linear models are typically used for the analysis. The linear predictor includes pollutant concentrations and known confounders such as socio-economic deprivation. However, as the disease data typically contain residual spatial or spatio-temporal autocorrelation after the covariate effects have been accounted for, these known covariates are augmented by a set of random effects. One key problem in these studies is estimating spatially representative pollution concentrations in each areal which are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over modelled concentrations (grid level) from an atmospheric dispersion model. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particular matter (PM10) in mainland Scotland, UK. In order to have an initial impression about the air pollution health effects in mainland Scotland, chapter 3 presents a standard epidemiological study using a benchmark method. The remaining main chapters (4, 5, 6) cover the main methodological focus in this thesis which has been threefold: (i) how to better estimate pollution by developing a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant; (ii) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants; and (iii) how to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. Specifically, chapters 4 and 5 are developed to achieve (i), while chapter 6 focuses on (ii) and (iii). In chapter 4, I propose an integrated model for estimating the long-term health effects of NO2, that fuses modelled and measured pollution data to provide improved predictions of areal level pollution concentrations and hence health effects. The air pollution fusion model proposed is a Bayesian space-time linear regression model for relating the measured concentrations to the modelled concentrations for a single pollutant, whilst allowing for additional covariate information such as site type (e.g. roadside, rural, etc) and temperature. However, it is known that some pollutants might be correlated because they may be generated by common processes or be driven by similar factors such as meteorology. The correlation between pollutants can help to predict one pollutant by borrowing strength from the others. Therefore, in chapter 5, I propose a multi-pollutant model which is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that extends the single pollutant model in chapter 4, which relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant to predict pollution across mainland Scotland. Considering that we are exposed to multiple pollutants simultaneously because the air we breathe contains a complex mixture of particle and gas phase pollutants, the health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants have been investigated in chapter 6. Therefore, this is a natural extension to the single pollutant health effects in chapter 4. Given NO2 and PM10 are highly correlated (multicollinearity issue) in my data, I first propose a temporally-varying linear model to regress one pollutant (e.g. NO2) against another (e.g. PM10) and then use the residuals in the disease model as well as PM10, thus investigating the health effects of exposure to both pollutants simultaneously. Another issue considered in chapter 6 is to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. There are in total four approaches being developed to adjust the exposure uncertainty. Finally, chapter 7 summarises the work contained within this thesis and discusses the implications for future research.