Transient dominance in a central African rain forest

The large-crowned emergent tree Microberlinia bisulcata dominates rain forest groves at Korup National Park, Cameroon, along with two codominants, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. korupensis. M. bisulcata has a pronounced modal size frequency distribution around 110 cm stem diameter: its recruitment potential is very poor. It is a long-lived light-demanding species, one of many found in African forests. Tetraberlinia species lack modality, are more shade tolerant, and recruit better. All three species are ectomycorrhizal. M. bisulcata dominates grove basal area, even though it has similar numbers of trees (≥50 cm stem diameter) as each of the other two species. This situation presented a conundrum that prompted a long-term study of grove dynamics. Enumerations of two plots (82.5 and 56.25 ha) between 1990 and 2010 showed mortality and recruitment of M. bisulcata to be very low (both rates 0.2% per year) compared with Tetraberlinia (2.4% and 0.8% per year), and M. bisulcata grows twice as fast as the Tetraberlinia. Ordinations indicated that these three species determined community structure by their strong negative associations while other species showed almost none. Ranked species abundance curves fitted the Zipf-Mandelbrot model well and allowed “overdominance” of M. bisulcata to be estimated. Spatial analysis indicated strong repulsion by clusters of large (50 to <100 cm) and very large (≥100 cm) M. bisulcata of their own medium-sized (10 to <50 cm) trees and all sizes of Tetraberlinia. This was interpreted as competition by M. bisulcata increasing its dominance, but also inhibition of its own replacement potential. Stem coring showed a modal age of 200 years for M. bisulcata, but with large size variation (50–150 cm). Fifty-year model projections suggested little change in medium, decreases in large, and increases in very large trees of M. bisulcata, accompanied by overall decreases in medium and large trees of Tetraberlinia species. Realistically increasing very-large-tree mortality led to grove collapse without short-term replacement. M. bisulcata most likely depends on climatic events to rebuild its stands: the ratio of disturbance interval to median species' longevity is important. A new theory of transient dominance explains how M. bisulcata may be cycling in abundance over time and displaying nonequilibrium dynamics.

Tissue coverage and neointimal hyperplasia in overlap versus nonoverlap segments of drug-eluting stents 9 to 13 months after implantation: in vivo assessment with optical coherence tomography

BACKGROUND Histologic experimental studies have reported incomplete neointimal healing in overlapping with respect to nonoverlapping segments in drug-eluting stents (DESs), but these observations have not been confirmed in human coronary arteries hitherto. On the contrary, angiographic and optical coherence tomography studies suggest that DES overlap elicits rather an exaggerated than an incomplete neointimal reaction. METHODS Optical coherence tomography studies from 2 randomized trials including sirolimus-eluting, biolimus-eluting, everolimus-eluting, and zotarolimus-eluting stents were analyzed at 9- to 13-month follow-up. Coverage in overlapping segments was compared versus the corresponding nonoverlapping segments of the same stents, using statistical pooled analysis. RESULTS Forty-two overlaps were found in 31 patients: 11 in sirolimus-eluting stents, 3 in biolimus-eluting stents, 17 in everolimus-eluting stents, and 11 in zotarolimus-eluting stents. The risk ratio of incomplete coverage was 2.35 (95% CI 1.86-2.98) in overlapping versus nonoverlapping segments. Thickness of coverage in overlaps was only 85% (95% CI 81%-90%) of the thickness in nonoverlaps. Significant heterogeneity of the effect was observed, especially pronounced in the comparison of thickness of coverage (I(2) = 90.31). CONCLUSIONS The effect of overlapping DES on neointimal inhibition is markedly heterogeneous: on average, DES overlap is associated with more incomplete and thinner coverage, but in some cases, the overlap elicits an exaggerated neointimal reaction, thicker than in the corresponding nonoverlapping segments. These results might help to understand why overlapping DES is associated with worse clinical outcomes, both in terms of thrombotic phenomena and in terms of restenosis and revascularization.

Developmental Changes in the Structure and Composition of the Postsynaptic Density

The development of the brain and its underlying circuitry is dependent on the formation of trillions of chemical synapses, which are highly specialized contacts that regulate the flow of information from one neuron to the next. It is through these synaptic connections that neurons wire together into networks capable of performing specific tasks, and activity-dependent changes in their structural and physiological state is one way that the brain is thought to adapt and store information. At the ultrastructural level, developmental and activity-dependent changes in the size and shape of dendritic spines have been well documented, and it is widely believed that structural changes in spines are a hallmark sign of synapse maturation and alteration of synaptic physiology. While changes in spine structure have been studied extensively, changes in one of its most prominent components, the postsynaptic density (PSD), have largely evaded observation. The PSD is a protein-rich organelle on the cytoplasmic side of the postsynaptic membrane, where it sits in direct opposition to the presynaptic terminal. The PSD functions both to cluster neurotransmitter receptors at the cell surface as well as organize the intracellular signaling molecules responsible for transducing extracellular signals to the postsynaptic cell. Much is known about the chemical composition of the PSD, but the structural arrangement of its molecular components is not well documented. Adding to the difficulty of understanding such a complex mass of protein machinery is the fact that its protein composition is known to change in response to synaptic activity, meaning that its structure is plastic and no two PSDs are identical. Here, immuno-gold labeling and electron tomography of PSDs isolated throughout development was used to track changes in both the structure and molecular composition of the PSD. State-of-the-art cryo-electron tomography was used to study the fine structure of the PSD during development, and provides an unprecedented glimpse into its molecular architecture in an un-fixed, unstained and hydrated state. Through this analysis, large structural and compositional changes are apparent and suggest a model by which the PSD is first assembled as a mesh-like lattice of proteins that function as support for the later recruitment of various PSD components. Spatial analysis of the recruitment of proteins into the PSD demonstrated that its assembly has an underlying order.

Serosurveillance of Schmallenberg virus in Switzerland using bulk tank milk samples.

Infections with Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a novel Orthobunyavirus transmitted by biting midges, can cause abortions and malformations of newborns and severe symptoms in adults of domestic and wild ruminants. Understanding the temporal and spatial distribution of the virus in a certain territory is important for the control and prevention of the disease. In this study, seroprevalence of antibodies against SBV and the spatial spread of the virus was investigated in Swiss dairy cattle applying a milk serology technique on bulk milk samples. The seroprevalence in cattle herds was significantly higher in December 2012 (99.5%) compared to July 2012 (19.7%). This high between-herd seroprevalence in cattle herds was observed shortly after the first detection of viral infections. Milk samples originating from farms with seropositive animals taken in December 2012 (n=209; mean 160%) revealed significantly higher S/P% ratios than samples collected in July 2012 (n=48; mean 103.6%). This finding suggests a high within-herd seroprevalence in infected herds which makes testing of bulk tank milk samples for the identification farms with past exposures to SBV a sensitive method. It suggests also that within-herd transmission followed by seroconversion still occurred between July and December. In July 2012, positive bulk tank milk samples were mainly restricted to the western part of Switzerland whereas in December 2012, all samples except one were positive. A spatial analysis revealed a separation of regions with and without positive farms in July 2012 and no spatial clustering within the regions with positive farms. In contrast to the spatial dispersion of bluetongue virus, a virus that is also transmitted by Culicoides midges, in 2008 in Switzerland, the spread of SBV occurred from the western to the eastern part of the country. The dispersed incursion of SBV took place in the western part of Switzerland and the virus spread rapidly to the remaining territory. This spatial pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that transmission by Culicoides midges was the main way of spreading.

Watershed classification in the Lower Mekong Basin: Rapid economic growth - a source of increasing potential for conflict over resource use

In the Lower Mekon Basin the extraordinary pace of economic development and growth contradicts with environmental protection. On base of the Watershed Classification Project (WSCP) and the inclusion of a DTM for the entire LMB the potential degradation risk was derived for each land unit. The risks were grouped into five classes, where classes one and two are considered critical with regard to soil erosion when the land is cleared of natural resources. For practical use the database has an enormous potential for further spatial analysis in combination with other datasets, as for example the NCCR North-South uses the WSCP within two research projects.

Marginal lands or marginal people? Analysing key processes determining the outcomes of large-scale land acquisitions in Lao PDR and Cambodia

This chapter aims to overcome the gap existing between case study research, which typically provides qualitative and process-based insights, and national or global inventories that typically offer spatially explicit and quantitative analysis of broader patterns, and thus to present adequate evidence for policymaking regarding large-scale land acquisitions. Therefore, the chapter links spatial patterns of land acquisitions to underlying implementation processes of land allocation. Methodologically linking the described patterns and processes proved difficult, but we have identified indicators that could be added to inventories and monitoring systems to make linkage possible. Combining complementary approaches in this way may help to determine where policy space exists for more sustainable governance of land acquisitions, both geographically and with regard to processes of agrarian transitions. Our spatial analysis revealed two general patterns: (i) relatively large forestry-related acquisitions that target forested landscapes and often interfere with semi-subsistence farming systems; and (ii) smaller agriculture-related acquisitions that often target existing cropland and also interfere with semi-subsistence systems. Furthermore, our meta-analysis of land acquisition implementation processes shows that authoritarian, top-down processes dominate. Initially, the demands of powerful regional and domestic investors tend to override socio-ecological variables, local actors’ interests, and land governance mechanisms. As available land grows scarce, however, and local actors gain experience dealing with land acquisitions, it appears that land investments begin to fail or give way to more inclusive, bottom-up investment models.

Eine sozialtopographische Analyse der Wohngebiete von Nuzi

The archaeological evidence from Late Bronze Age Nuzi has ever since the publication of R.F.S. Starr’s final report in 1939 experienced few attention, leaving the interpretation of the inner structure of this extraordinarily extensively excavated settlement to a thriving philological research. This paper presents a macroscopic spatial analysis of mobile inventories in the domestic areas. Based on the comparison with stationary installations and the formal architectural structure a revised socio-topography is proposed. The combination with the evidence from the investigations of the private archives elucidates the great potential for the consideration of multiple approaches in the future research on the function, meaning and sociology of spaces in Near Eastern Archaeology.

Geomorphology and spectrophotometry of Philae's landing site on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Context. On 12 November 2014 the European mission Rosetta succeeded in delivering a lander, named Philae, on the surface of one of the smallest, low-gravity and most primitive bodies of the solar system, the comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P). Aims. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive geomorphological and spectrophotometric analysis of Philae's landing site (Agilkia) to give an essential framework for the interpretation of its in situ measurements. Methods. OSIRIS images, coupled with gravitational slopes derived from the 3D shape model based on stereo-photogrammetry were used to interpret the geomorphology of the site. We adopted the Hapke model, using previously derived parameters, to photometrically correct the images in orange filter (649.2 nm). The best approximation to the Hapke model, given by the Akimov parameter-less function, was used to correct the reflectance for the effects of viewing and illumination conditions in the other filters. Spectral analyses on coregistered color cubes were used to retrieve spectrophotometric properties. Results. The landing site shows an average normal albedo of 6.7% in the orange filter with variations of similar to 15% and a global featureless spectrum with an average red spectral slope of 15.2%/100 nm between 480.7 nm (blue filter) and 882.1 nm (near-IR filter). The spatial analysis shows a well-established correlation between the geomorphological units and the photometric characteristics of the surface. In particular, smooth deposits have the highest reflectance a bluer spectrum than the outcropping material across the area. Conclusions. The featureless spectrum and the redness of the material are compatible with the results by other instruments that have suggested an organic composition. The observed small spectral variegation could be due to grain size effects. However, the combination of photometric and spectral variegation suggests that a compositional differentiation is more likely. This might be tentatively interpreted as the effect of the efficient dust-transport processes acting on 67P. High-activity regions might be the original sources for smooth fine-grained materials that then covered Agilkia as a consequence of airfall of residual material. More observations performed by OSIRIS as the comet approaches the Sun would help interpreting the processes that work at shaping the landing site and the overall nucleus.

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Using small area estimation and geographic information systems technology to target health services for the uninsured

The three articles that comprise this dissertation describe how small area estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) technologies can be integrated to provide useful information about the number of uninsured and where they are located. Comprehensive data about the numbers and characteristics of the uninsured are typically only available from surveys. Utilization and administrative data are poor proxies from which to develop this information. Those who cannot access services are unlikely to be fully captured, either by health care provider utilization data or by state and local administrative data. In the absence of direct measures, a well-developed estimation of the local uninsured count or rate can prove valuable when assessing the unmet health service needs of this population. However, the fact that these are “estimates” increases the chances that results will be rejected or, at best, treated with suspicion. The visual impact and spatial analysis capabilities afforded by geographic information systems (GIS) technology can strengthen the likelihood of acceptance of area estimates by those most likely to benefit from the information, including health planners and policy makers. ^ The first article describes how uninsured estimates are currently being performed in the Houston metropolitan region. It details the synthetic model used to calculate numbers and percentages of uninsured, and how the resulting estimates are integrated into a GIS. The second article compares the estimation method of the first article with one currently used by the Texas State Data Center to estimate numbers of uninsured for all Texas counties. Estimates are developed for census tracts in Harris County, using both models with the same data sets. The results are statistically compared. The third article describes a new, revised synthetic method that is being tested to provide uninsured estimates at sub-county levels for eight counties in the Houston metropolitan area. It is being designed to replicate the same categorical results provided by a current U.S. Census Bureau estimation method. The estimates calculated by this revised model are compared to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates, using the same areas and population categories. ^

Reconnaissance survey of Galveston Bay sediments for selective nonresidual trace metals

The nonresidual concentrations of five trace metals were determined for 322 sediments that were the product of a systematic sampling program of the entire Galveston Bay system. The nonresidual component of the trace metal concentration (e.g. that fraction of the metals that can be relatively easily removed from the sediments without complete destruction of the sediment particle) was considered to be more indicative of the anthropogenic metal pollution that has impacted the Galveston Bay ecosystem.^ For spatial analysis of the metal concentrations, the Galveston Bay system was divided into nine bay-areas, based on easily definable geological and geographical characteristics. Isopleth mapping analyses of these metal concentrations indicated a direct relationship with the $<$63$\mu$m fraction of the sediment (%FINE) in all of the bay areas. Covariate regression analyses indicated that position of the sediment within the Galveston Bay system (e.g. bay-area) was a better predictor of metal concentration than %FINE. Analysis of variance of the metals versus the bay-areas indicated that the five metals maintained a relatively constant order and magnitude of concentration for all the bay-areas.^ The major shipping channels of the Galveston Bay system, with their associated vessels and transported materials, are a likely source of metal pollution. However, these channels were not depositional corridors of high metal concentration. All metal concentration highs were found to be located away from the channels and associated with %FINE highs in the deeper portions of the bay-areas.^ Disturbance of the sediments, by the proposed widening and deepening of these channels, is not predicted to remobilize the trace metals. A more likely adverse effect on the health of the Galveston Bay ecosystem would come from the increase in turbidity of the water due to the dredging and in an extension of the salt water wedge farther north into the bay system. ^

Endemic tuberculosis, the homeless, and public transportation: A merging of geographical information systems surveillance and the Houston Tuberculosis Initiative Surveillance project

To reach the goals established by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) and the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) STOP TB USA, measures must be taken to curtail a future peak in Tuberculosis (TB) incidence and speed the currently stagnant rate of TB elimination. Both efforts will require, at minimum, the consideration and understanding of the third dimension of TB transmission: the location-based spread of an airborne pathogen among persons known and unknown to each other. This consideration will require an elucidation of the areas within the U.S. that have endemic TB. The Houston Tuberculosis Initiative (HTI) was a population-based active surveillance of confirmed Houston/Harris County TB cases from 1995–2004. Strengths in this dataset include the molecular characterization of laboratory confirmed cases, the collection of geographic locations (including home addresses) frequented by cases, and the HTI time period that parallels a decline in TB incidence in the United States (U.S.). The HTI dataset was used in this secondary data analysis to implement a GIS analysis of TB cases, the locations frequented by cases, and their association with risk factors associated with TB transmission. ^ This study reports, for the first time, the incidence of TB among the homeless in Houston, Texas. The homeless are an at-risk population for TB disease, yet they are also a population whose TB incidence has been unknown and unreported due to their non-enumeration. The first section of this dissertation identifies local areas in Houston with endemic TB disease. Many Houston TB cases who reported living in these endemic areas also share the TB risk factor of current or recent homelessness. Merging the 2004–2005 Houston enumeration of the homeless with historical HTI surveillance data of TB cases in Houston enabled this first-time report of TB risk among the homeless in Houston. The homeless were more likely to be US-born, belong to a genotypic cluster, and belong to a cluster of a larger size. The calculated average incidence among homeless persons was 411/100,000, compared to 9.5/100,000 among housed. These alarming rates are not driven by a co-infection but by social determinants. The unsheltered persons were hospitalized more days and required more follow-up time by staff than those who reported a steady housing situation. The homeless are a specific example of the increased targeting of prevention dollars that could occur if TB rates were reported for specific areas with known health disparities rather than as a generalized rate normalized over a diverse population. ^ It has been estimated that 27% of Houstonians use public transportation. The city layout allows bus routes to run like veins connecting even the most diverse of populations within the metropolitan area. Secondary data analysis of frequent bus use (defined as riding a route weekly) among TB cases was assessed for its relationship with known TB risk factors. The spatial distribution of genotypic clusters associated with bus use was assessed, along with the reported routes and epidemiologic-links among cases belonging to the identified clusters. ^ TB cases who reported frequent bus use were more likely to have demographic and social risk factors associated with poverty, immune suppression and health disparities. An equal proportion of bus riders and non-bus riders were cultured for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, yet 75% of bus riders were genotypically clustered, indicating recent transmission, compared to 56% of non-bus riders (OR=2.4, 95%CI(2.0, 2.8), p<0.001). Bus riders had a mean cluster size of 50.14 vs. 28.9 (p<0.001). Second order spatial analysis of clustered fingerprint 2 (n=122), a Beijing family cluster, revealed geographic clustering among cases based on their report of bus use. Univariate and multivariate analysis of routes reported by cases belonging to these clusters found that 10 of the 14 clusters were associated with use. Individual Metro routes, including one route servicing the local hospitals, were found to be risk factors for belonging to a cluster shown to be endemic in Houston. The routes themselves geographically connect the census tracts previously identified as having endemic TB. 78% (15/23) of Houston Metro routes investigated had one or more print groups reporting frequent use for every HTI study year. We present data on three specific but clonally related print groups and show that bus-use is clustered in time by route and is the only known link between cases in one of the three prints: print 22. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

Seguridad humana : necesidad de innovar enfoques a partir del ordenamiento territorial

La inseguridad es uno de los mayores desafíos al que se enfrentan los gobernantes en América Latina. Este problema avanza desde una visión sectorial en los años ochenta hacia una visión transversal a partir de los noventa. Esto implica una evolución de su concepto; desde su consideración como una cuestión de seguridad de Estado de competencia policial y militar hacia la “seguridad humana", concepto multidimensional que contempla el desarrollo humano y la satisfacción de necesidades. En Argentina la inseguridad se agrava desde la crisis social y económica y es parte de la agenda política debido a los constantes reclamos de la sociedad. Sin embargo, con el transcurrir de los años se puede observar la imposibilidad de las gestiones gubernamentales de hacerle frente. Es por ello que en este trabajo se plantea la relación entre la seguridad humana y el Ordenamiento Territorial a través de la evaluación de la habitabilidad, enfoque que permite operacionalizar el concepto de seguridad de forma integradora y transversal. Para el desarrollo del trabajo se utiliza un caso de estudio: el piedemonte del Gran Mendoza. Se parte de la construcción de una metodología de análisis que permite espacializar los datos y de un sistema de variables e indicadores para medir la habitabilidad en términos de la seguridad humana.

Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Wal-Mart, caballo de Troya de la globalización

Creada en 1962 por Sam Walton, una pequeña empresa de distribución norteamericana se convertirá rápidamente en la primera empresa mundial. Desde Bentonville, Arkansas, hasta el interior de China, Wal-Mart muestra un camino bastante clásico que va desde la sede principal de la empresa hacia una proliferación de sus tiendas en una quincena de países. Con una facturación de 405 mil millones de dólares en 2008, la empresa de distribución número uno en el mundo fue sobrepasada en abril de 2009 por la empresa petrolera Exxon Mobil en la clasificación de las quinientas empresas mundiales más importantes. Pero a diferencia de otras grandes transnacionales como Exxon Mobil o Microsoft, Wal-Mart, la primera empresa mundial de distribución, tiene que adaptarse al medio ambiente local con el fin de atraer a un máximo de consumidores. El artículo propone una aproximación a escala múltiple de las estrategias de desarrollo de esta firma internacional. Así, la aplicación de un análisis espacial es apropiada para esclarecer los vínculos existentes entre los territorios y las estrategias de los actores a diferentes escalas geográficas.