938 resultados para spatial and temporal variability


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Stable water isotope (delta(18)O, deltaD) data from a high elevation (5100 masl) ice core recovered from the Tien Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, display a seasonal cycle in deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8* delta(18)O) related to changes in the regional hydrologic cycle during 1994 - 2000. While there is a strong correlation (r(2) = 0.98) between delta(18)O and dD in the ice core samples, the regression slope (6.9) and mean d value (23.0) are significantly different than the global meteoric water line values. The resulting time-series ice core d profile contains distinct winter maxima and summer minima, with a yearly d amplitude of similar to 15 - 20parts per thousand. Local-scale processes that may affect d values preserved in the ice core are not consistent with the observed seasonal variability. Data from Central Asian monitoring sites in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) have similar seasonal d changes. We suggest that regional-scale hydrological conditions, including seasonal changes in moisture source, transport, and recycling in the Caspian/ Aral Sea region, are responsible for the observed spatial and temporal d variability.

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Chemistry data from 16, 50-115 m deep, sub-annually dated ice cores are used to investigate spatial and temporal concentration variability of sea-salt (ss) SO42- and excess (xs) SO42- over West Antarctica and the South Pole for the last 200 years. Low-elevation ice-core sites in western West Antarctica contain higher concentrations Of SO42- as a result of cyclogenesis over the Ross Ice Shelf and proximity to the Ross Sea Polynya. Linear correlation analysis of 15 West Antarctic ice-core SO42- time series demonstrates that at several sites concentrations Of ssSO(4)(2-) are higher when sea-ice (SIE) extent is greater, and the inverse for XSS04. Concentrations Of XSS04 from the South Pole site (East Antarctica) are associated with SIE from the Weddell region, and West Antarctic XSSO42- concentrations are associated with SIE from the Bellingshausen-Amundsen-Ross region. The only notable rise of the last 200 years in xsSO(4)(2-), around 1940, is not related to SIE fluctuations and is most likely a result of increased xsSO(4)(2-) production in the mid-low latitudes and/or an increase in transport efficiency from the mid-low latitudes to central West Antarctica. These high-resolution records show that the source types and source areas Of ssSO(4)(2-) and xsSO(4)(2-) delivered to eastern and western West Antarctica and the South Pole differ from site to site but can best be resolved using records from spatial ice-core arrays such as the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE).

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The complex effects of light, nutrients and temperature lead to a variable carbon to chlorophyll (C:Chl) ratio in phytoplankton cells. Using field data collected in the Equatorial Pacific, we derived a new dynamic model with a non-steady C:Chl ratio as a function of irradiance, nitrate, iron, and temperature. The dynamic model is implemented into a basin-scale ocean circulation-biogeochemistry model and tested in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The model reproduces well the general features of phytoplankton dynamics in this region. For instance, the simulated deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) is much deeper in the western warm pool (similar to 100 m) than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (similar to 50 m). The model also shows the ability to reproduce chlorophyll, including not only the zonal, meridional and vertical variations, but also the interannual variability. This modeling study demonstrates that combination of nitrate and iron regulates the spatial and temporal variations in the phytoplankton C:Chl ratio in the Equatorial Pacific. Sensitivity simulations suggest that nitrate is mainly responsible for the high C:Chl ratio in the western warm pool while iron is responsible for the frontal features in the C:Chl ratio between the warm pool and the upwelling region. In addition, iron plays a dominant role in regulating the spatial and temporal variations of the C:Chl ratio in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific. While temperature has a relatively small effect on the C:Chl ratio, light is primarily responsible for the vertical decrease of phytoplankton C:Chl ratio in the euphotic zone.

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Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

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The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

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The Tibetan Plateau (TP), including its surrounding mountain ranges, represents the largest store of ice outside the polar regions. It hosts numerous lakes as well as the head waters of major Asian rivers, on which billions of people depend, and it is particularly sensitive to climate change. The moisture transport to the TP is controlled by the Indian and Pacific monsoon and the Westerlies. Understanding the evolution of the interaction of these circulation systems requires studies on climate archives in different spatial and temporal contexts. The objective of this study is to learn more about the interannual variability of precipitation patterns across the TP and how different hydrologic systems react to different climatic factors. Aragonite shells of the aquatic gastropod Radix, which is widely distributed in the region, may represent suitable archives for inferring hydrologic and climatic signals in particularly high resolution. Therefore, sclerochronological studies of d18O and d13C ratios in Radix shells from seven lakes were conducted, each representing a different hydrologic and climatic setting, on a transect from the Pamirs across the TP. The shell patterns exhibit an increasing influence of precipitation and a decreasing influence of evaporation on the isotope compositions from west to east. d18O values of shells from lakes on the eastern and central TP (Donggi Cona, Yamdrok Yumco, Tarab Co) mirror monsoon signals, indicated by more negative values and higher variabilities compared to the more western lakes (Karakul, Bangong/Nyak, Manasarovar). In Yadang Co, located on the central southern TP, the monsoon rains did not reach the lake in the sampling year, although it is located in a region which is usually affected by monsoon circulation. The d18O values are used to differentiate the annual hydrological cycle into ice cover period, melt water period, precipitation period and evaporation period. d13C compositions in the shells particularly depend on specific habitats, which vary in biological productivity and in carbon sources. d18O and d13C patterns show a positive covariance in shells originating from large closed basins. The results show that Radix shells mirror general climatic differences between the seven lake regions. These differences reflect both regional and local climate signals in sub-seasonal resolution, without noticeable dependence on the particular lake system.

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Standing stocks and production rates for phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria were examined during four expeditions in the western Arctic Ocean (Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin) in the spring and summer of 2002 and 2004. Rates of primary production (PP) and bacterial production (BP) were higher in the summer than in spring and in shelf waters than in the basin. Most surprisingly, PP was 3-fold higher in 2004 than in 2002; ice-corrected rates were 1581 and 458 mg C/m**2/d respectively, for the entire region. The difference between years was mainly due to low ice coverage in the summer of 2004. The spatial and temporal variation in PP led to comparable variation in BP. Although temperature explained as much variability in BP as did PP or phytoplankton biomass, there was no relationship between temperature and bacterial growth rates above about 0°C. The average ratio of BP to PP was 0.06 and 0.79 when ice-corrected PP rates were greater than and less than 100 mg C/m**2/d, respectively; the overall average was 0.34. Bacteria accounted for a highly variable fraction of total respiration, from 3% to over 60% with a mean of 25%. Likewise, the fraction of PP consumed by bacterial respiration, when calculated from growth efficiency (average of 6.9%) and BP estimates, varied greatly over time and space (7% to >500%). The apparent uncoupling between respiration and PP has several implications for carbon export and storage in the western Arctic Ocean.

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As a result of intensive field activities carried out by several nations over the past 15 years, a set of accumulation measurements for western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, was collected, based on firn-core drilling and snow-pit sampling. This new information was supplemented by earlier data taken from the literature, resulting in 111 accumulation values. Using Geographical Information Systems software, a first region-wide mean annual snow-accumulation field was derived. In order to define suitable interpolation criteria, the accumulation records were analyzed with respect to their spatial autocorrelation and statistical properties. The resulting accumulation pattern resembles well known characteristics such as a relatively wet coastal area with a sharp transition to the dry interior, but also reveals complex topographic effects. Furthermore, this work identifies new high-return shallow drilling sites by uncovering areas of insufficient sampling density.

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During summer 2008, as part of the Circumpolar Flaw Lead system study, we measured phytoplankton photosynthetic parameters to understand regional patterns in primary productivity, including the degree and timescale of photoacclimation and how variability in environmental conditions influences this response. Photosynthesis-irradiance measurements were taken at 15 sites primarily from the depth of the subsurface chlorophyll a (Chl a) maximum (SCM) within the Beaufort Sea flaw lead polynya. The physiological response of phytoplankton to a range of light levels was used to assess maximum rates of carbon (C) fixation (P*m), photosynthetic efficiency (alpha*), photoacclimation (Ek), and photoinhibition (beta*). SCM samples taken along a transect from under ice into open water exhibited a >3-fold increase in alpha* and P*m, showing these parameters can vary substantially over relatively small spatial scales, primarily in response to changes in the ambient light field. Algae were able to maintain relatively high rates of C fixation despite low light at the SCM, particularly in the large (>5 µm) size fraction at open water sites. This may substantially impact biogenic C drawdown if species composition shifts in response to future climate change. Our results suggest that phytoplankton in this region are well acclimated to existing environmental conditions, including sea ice cover, low light, and nutrient pulses. Furthermore, this photoacclimatory response can be rapid and keep pace with a developing SCM, as phytoplankton maintain photosynthetic rates and efficiencies in a narrow ''shade-acclimated'' range.

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The accumulation of extraterrestrial 3He, a tracer for interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), in sediments from the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP; western equatorial Pacific Ocean) has been shown previously to exhibit a regular cyclicity during the late Pleistocene, with a period of ~100 ka. Those results have been interpreted to reflect periodic variability in the global accretion of IDPs that, in turn, has been linked to changes in the inclination of Earth's orbit with respect to the invariable plane of the solar system. Here we show that the accumulation in OJP sediments of authigenic 230Th, produced by radioactive decay of 234U in seawater, exhibits a 100-ka cyclicity similar in phase and amplitude to that evident in the 3He record. We interpret the similar patterns of 230Th and 3He accumulation to reflect a common origin within the ocean-climate system. Comparing spatial and temporal patterns of sediment accumulation against regional patterns of biological productivity and against the well-established pattern of CaCO3 dissolution in the deep Pacific Ocean leads to the further conclusion that a common 100-ka cycle in accumulation of biogenic, authigenic and extraterrestrial constituents in OJP sediments reflects the influence of climate-related changes in sediment focusing, rather than changes in the rate of production or supply of sedimentary constituents.

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We have examined the spatial and seasonal distribution of Thaumarchaeota in the water column and sediment of the southern North Sea using the specific intact polar lipid (IPL) hexose, phosphohexose (HPH) crenarchaeol, as well as thaumarchaeotal 16S rRNA gene abundances and expression. In the water column, a higher abundance of Thaumarchaeota was observed in the winter season than in the summer, which is in agreement with previous studies, but this was not the case in the sediment where Thaumarchaeota were most abundant in spring and summer. This observation corresponds well with the idea that ammonia availability is a key factor in thaumarchaeotal niche determination. In the surface waters of the southern North Sea, we observed a spatial variability in HPH crenarchaeol, thaumarchaeotal 16S rRNA gene abundance and transcriptional activity that corresponded well with the different water masses present. In bottom waters, a clear differentiation based on water masses was not observed; instead, we suggest that observed differences in thaumarchaeotal abundance with depth may be related to resuspension from the sediment. This could be due to suspension of benthic Thaumarchaeota to the water column or due to delivery of e.g. resuspended sediment or ammonium to the water column, which could be utilized by pelagic Thaumarchaeota. This study has shown that the seasonality of Thaumarchaeota in water and sediment is different and highlights the importance of water masses, currents and sedimentary processes in determining the spatial abundance of Thaumarchaeota in the southern North Sea.

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The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) today compensates for the northward flowing Norwegian and Irminger branches of the North Atlantic Current that drive the Nordic heat pump. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), ice sheets constricted the Denmark Strait aperture in addition to ice eustatic/isostatic effects which reduced its depth (today ~630 m) by ~130 m. These factors, combined with a reduced north-south density gradient of the water-masses, are expected to have restricted or even reversed the LGM DSO intensity. To better constrain these boundary conditions, we present a first reconstruction of the glacial DSO, using four new and four published epibenthic and planktic stable-isotope records from sites to the north and south of the Denmark Strait. The spatial and temporal distribution of epibenthic delta18O and delta13C maxima reveals a north-south density gradient at intermediate water depths from sigma0 ~28.7 to 28.4/28.1 and suggests that dense and highly ventilated water was convected in the Nordic Seas during the LGM. However, extremely high epibenthic delta13C values on top of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge document a further convection cell of Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water to the south of Iceland, which, however, was marked by much lower density (sigma0 ~28.1). The north-south gradient of water density possibly implied that the glacial DSO was directed to the south like today and fed Glacial North Atlantic Deep Water that has underthrusted the Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water in the Irminger Basin.