Automated risk mitigation in business processes

This paper proposes a concrete approach for the automatic mitigation of risks that are detected during process enactment. Given a process model exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to the risk of approval fraud, we enact this process and as soon as the likelihood of the associated risk(s) is no longer tolerable, we generate a set of possible mitigation actions to reduce the risks' likelihood, ideally annulling the risks altogether. A mitigation action is a sequence of controlled changes applied to the running process instance, taking into account a snapshot of the process resources and data, and the current status of the system in which the process is executed. These actions are proposed as recommendations to help process administrators mitigate process-related risks as soon as they arise. The approach has been implemented in the YAWL environment and its performance evaluated. The results show that it is possible to mitigate process-related risks within a few minutes.

Risk factors for moderate and severe microbial keratitis in daily wear contact lens users

Objective: To establish risk factors for moderate and severe microbial keratitis among daily contact lens (CL) wearers in Australia. Design: A prospective, 12-month, population-based, case-control study. Participants: New cases of moderate and severe microbial keratitis in daily wear CL users presenting in Australia over a 12-month period were identified through surveillance of all ophthalmic practitioners. Case detection was augmented by record audits at major ophthalmic centers. Controls were users of daily wear CLs in the community identified using a national telephone survey. Testing: Cases and controls were interviewed by telephone to determine subject demographics and CL wear history. Multiple binary logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors and univariate population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) was estimated for each risk factor.; Main Outcome Measures: Independent risk factors, relative risk (with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]), and PAR%. Results: There were 90 eligible moderate and severe cases related to daily wear of CLs reported during the study period. We identified 1090 community controls using daily wear CLs. Independent risk factors for moderate and severe keratitis while adjusting for age, gender, and lens material type included poor storage case hygiene 6.4× (95% CI, 1.9-21.8; PAR, 49%), infrequent storage case replacement 5.4× (95% CI, 1.5-18.9; PAR, 27%), solution type 7.2× (95% CI, 2.3-22.5; PAR, 35%), occasional overnight lens use (<1 night per week) 6.5× (95% CI, 1.3-31.7; PAR, 23%), high socioeconomic status 4.1× (95% CI, 1.2-14.4; PAR, 31%), and smoking 3.7× (95% CI, 1.1-12.8; PAR, 31%). Conclusions: Moderate and severe microbial keratitis associated with daily use of CLs was independently associated with factors likely to cause contamination of CL storage cases (frequency of storage case replacement, hygiene, and solution type). Other factors included occasional overnight use of CLs, smoking, and socioeconomic class. Disease load may be considerably reduced by attention to modifiable risk factors related to CL storage case practice.

A comparison of perceived crash risk among cyclists and drivers in Brisbane

The Queensland Government has implemented strategies promoting a shift from individual car use to active transport, a transition which requires drivers to adapt to sharing the road with increased numbers of people cycling through transport network. For this to occur safely, changes in both road infrastructure and road user expectations and behaviors will be needed. Creating separate cycle infrastructure does not remove the need for cyclists to commence, cross or finish travel on shared roads. Currently intersections are one of the predominant shared road spaces where crashes result in cyclists being injured or killed. This research investigates how Brisbane cyclists and drivers perceive risk when interacting with other road users at intersections. The current study replicates a French study conducted by co-authors Chaurand and Delhomme in 2011 and extends it to assess gender effects which have been reported in other Australian cycling research. An online survey was administered to experienced cyclists and drivers. Participants rated the level of risk they felt when imagining a number of different road situations. Based on the earlier French study it is expected that perceived crash risk will be influenced both by the participant’s mode of travel and the type of interacting vehicle and perceived risk will be greater when the interaction is with a car than a bicycle. It is predicted that risk perception will decrease as the level of experience increases and that male participants will have a higher perception of skill and lower perception of risk than females. The findings of this Queensland study will provide a valuable insight into perceived risk and the traffic behaviours of drivers and cyclists when interacting with other road users and results will be available for presentation at the Congress.

Genetic association of the KLK4 locus with risk of prostate cancer

The Kallikrein-related peptidase, KLK4, has been shown to be significantly overexpressed in prostate tumours in numerous studies and is suggested to be a potential biomarker for prostate cancer. KLK4 may also play a role in prostate cancer progression through its involvement in epithelial-mesenchymal transition, a more aggressive phenotype, and metastases to bone. It is well known that genetic variation has the potential to affect gene expression and/or various protein characteristics and hence we sought to investigate the possible role of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the KLK4 gene in prostate cancer. Assessment of 61 SNPs in the KLK4 locus (±10 kb) in approximately 1300 prostate cancer cases and 1300 male controls for associations with prostate cancer risk and/or prostate tumour aggressiveness (Gleason score <7 versus ≥7) revealed 7 SNPs to be associated with a decreased risk of prostate cancer at the Ptrend<0.05 significance level. Three of these SNPs, rs268923, rs56112930 and the HapMap tagSNP rs7248321, are located several kb upstream of KLK4; rs1654551 encodes a non-synonymous serine to alanine substitution at position 22 of the long isoform of the KLK4 protein, and the remaining 3 risk-associated SNPs, rs1701927, rs1090649 and rs806019, are located downstream of KLK4 and are in high linkage disequilibrium with each other (r2≥0.98). Our findings provide suggestive evidence of a role for genetic variation in the KLK4 locus in prostate cancer predisposition.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality and the role of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors : a prospective cohort study with 17-years of follow up

Background The mechanisms underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are largely unknown. We studied the contribution of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors to inequalities in CVD mortality in adulthood. Methods The prospective GLOBE study was carried out in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, and linked with the cause of death register in 2007. At baseline, participants reported on adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) (own educational level), childhood socioeconomic conditions (occupational level of respondent’s father), and a broad range of adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, psychosocial factors). This present study is based on 5,395 men and 6,306 women, and the data were analysed using Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR). Results A low adulthood SEP was associated with increased CVD mortality for men (HR 1.84; 95% CI: 1.41-2.39) and women (HR 1.80; 95%CI: 1.04-3.10). Those with poorer childhood socioeconomic conditions were more likely to die from CVD in adulthood, but this reached statistical significance only among men with the poorest childhood socioeconomic circumstances. About half of the investigated adulthood risk factors showed significant associations with CVD mortality among both men and women, namely renting a house, experiencing financial problems, smoking, physical activity and marital status. Alcohol consumption and BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with CVD mortality among women, with the risk being significantly greater for both abstainers and heavy drinkers, and among women who were underweight or obese. Among men, being single or divorced and using sleep/anxiety drugs increased the risk of CVD mortality. In explanatory models, the largest contributor to adulthood CVD inequalities were material conditions for men (42%; 95% CI: −73 to −20) and behavioural factors for women (55%; 95% CI: -191 to −28). Simultaneous adjustment for adulthood risk factors and childhood socioeconomic conditions attenuated the HR for the lowest adulthood SEP to 1.34 (95% CI: 0.99-1.82) for men and 1.19 (95% CI: 0.65-2.15) for women. Conclusions Adulthood material, behavioural and psychosocial factors played a major role in the explanation of adulthood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances made a modest contribution, mainly via their association with adulthood risk factors. Policies and interventions to reduce health inequalities are likely to be most effective when considering the influence of socioeconomic circumstances across the entire life course and in particular, poor material conditions and unhealthy behaviours in adulthood.

Inflammation, hepatic enzymes and resistance training in individuals with metabolic risk factors

AIMS: Increases in inflammatory markers, hepatic enzymes and physical inactivity are associated with the development of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). We examined whether inflammatory markers and hepatic enzymes are correlated with traditional risk factors for MetS and studied the effects of resistance training (RT) on these emerging risk factors in individuals with a high number of metabolic risk factors (HiMF, 2.9 +/- 0.8) and those with a low number of metabolic risk factors (LoMF, 0.5 +/- 0.5). METHODS: Twenty-eight men and 27 women aged 50.8 +/- 6.5 years (mean +/- sd) participated in the study. Participants were randomized to four groups, HiMF training (HiMFT), HiMF control (HiMFC), LoMF training (LoMFT) and LoMF control (LoMFC). Before and after 10 weeks of RT [3 days/week, seven exercises, three sets with intensity gradually increased from 40-50% of one repetition maximum (1RM) to 75-85% of 1RM], blood samples were obtained for the measurement of pro-inflammatory cytokines, C-reactive protein (CRP), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT). RESULTS: At baseline, HiMF had higher interleukin-6 (33.9%), CRP (57.1%), GGT (45.2%) and ALT (40.6%) levels, compared with LoMF (all P < 0.05). CRP, GGT and ALT correlated with the number of risk factors (r = 0.48, 0.51 and 0.57, respectively, all P < 0.01) and with other anthropometric and clinical measures (r range from 0.26 to 0.60, P < 0.05). RT did not significantly alter inflammatory markers or hepatic enzymes (all P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: HiMF was associated with increased inflammatory markers and hepatic enzyme concentrations. RT did not reduce inflammatory markers and hepatic enzymes in individuals with HiMF.

The relationship between CFH and ARMS2 genotypes and neuroretinal function in persons without age-related macular degeneration

Purpose: To determine whether neuroretinal function differs in healthy persons with and without common risk gene variants for age- related macular degeneration (AMD) and no ophthalmoscopic signs of AMD, and to compare those findings in persons with manifest early AMD. Methods and Participants: Neuroretinal function was assessed with the multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) (VERIS, Redwood City, CA,) in 32 participants (22 healthy persons with no clinical signs of AMD and 10 early AMD patients). The 22 healthy participants with no AMD were risk genotypes for either the CFH (rs380390) and/or ARMS2 (rs10490920). We used a slow flash mfERG paradigm (3 inserted frames) and a 103 hexagon stimulus array. Recordings were made with DTL electrodes; fixation and eye movements were monitored online. Trough N1 to peak P1 (N1P1) response densities and P1-implicit times (IT) were analysed in 5 concentric rings. Results: N1P1 response densities (mean ± SD) for concentric rings 1-3 were on average significantly higher in at-risk genotypes (ring 1: 17.97 nV/deg2 ± 1.9, ring 2: 11.7 nV/deg2 ±1.3, ring 3: 8.7 nV/deg2 ± 0.7) compared to those without risk (ring 1: 13.7 nV/deg2 ± 1.9, ring 2: 9.2 nV/deg2 ±0.8, ring 3: 7.3 nV/deg2 ± 1.1) and compared to persons with early AMD (ring 1: 15.3 nV/deg2 ± 4.8, ring 2: 9.1 nV/deg2 ±2.3, ring 3 nV/deg2: 7.3± 1.3) (p<0.5). The group implicit times, P1-ITs for ring 1 were on average delayed in the early AMD patients (36.4 ms ± 1.0) compared to healthy participants with (35.1 ms ± 1.1) or without risk genotypes (34.8 ms ±1.3), although these differences were not significant. Conclusion: Neuroretinal function in persons with normal fundi can be differentiated into subgroups based on their genetics. Increased neuroretinal activity in persons who carry AMD risk genotypes may be due to genetically determined subclinical inflammatory and/or histological changes in the retina. Assessment of neuroretinal function in healthy persons genetically susceptible to AMD may be a useful early biomarker before there is clinical manifestation of AMD.

Real-time risk monitoring in business processes : a sensor-based approach

This article proposes an approach for real-time monitoring of risks in executable business process models. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, from process design, where risks are defined on top of process models, through to process diagnosis, where risks are detected during process execution. The approach has been realized via a distributed, sensor-based architecture. At design-time, sensors are defined to specify risk conditions which when fulfilled, are a likely indicator of negative process states (faults) to eventuate. Both historical and current process execution data can be used to compose such conditions. At run-time, each sensor independently notifies a sensor manager when a risk is detected. In turn, the sensor manager interacts with the monitoring component of a business process management system to prompt the results to process administrators who may take remedial actions. The proposed architecture has been implemented on top of the YAWL system, and evaluated through performance measurements and usability tests with students. The results show that risk conditions can be computed efficiently and that the approach is perceived as useful by the participants in the tests.

Can a community pharmacy sleep assessment tool aid the identification of patients at risk of sleep disorders in the community : a pilot study

Background: When experiencing sleep problems for the first time, consumers may often approach community pharmacists for advice as they are easily accessible health care professionals in the community. In Australian community pharmacies there are no specific tools available for use by pharmacists to assist with the assessment and handling of consumers with sleep enquiries. Objective: To assess the feasibility of improving the detection of sleep disorders within the community through the pilot of a newly developed Community Pharmacy Sleep Assessment Tool (COP-SAT). Method: The COP-SAT was designed to incorporate elements from a number of existing, standardized, and validated clinical screening measures. The COP-SAT was trialed in four Australian community pharmacies over a 4-week period. Key findings: A total of 241 community pharmacy consumers were assessed using the COP-SAT. A total of 74 (30.7%) were assessed as being at risk of insomnia, 26 (10.7%) were at risk of daytime sleepiness, 19 (7.9%) were at risk of obstructive sleep apnea, and 121 (50.2%) were regular snorers. A total of 116 (48.1%) participants indicated that they consume caffeine before bedtime, of which 55 (47%) had associated symptoms of sleep onset insomnia. Moreover, 85 (35%) consumed alcohol before bedtime, of which 50 (58%) experienced fragmented sleep, 50 (58%) were regular snorers, and nine (10.6%) had apnea symptoms. The COP-SAT was feasible in the community pharmacy setting. The prevalence of sleep disorders in the sampled population was high, but generally consistent with previous studies on the general population. Conclusion: A large proportion of participants reported sleep disorder symptoms, and a link was found between the consumption of alcohol and caffeine substances at bedtime and associated symptoms. While larger studies are needed to assess the clinical properties of the tool, the results of this feasibility study have demonstrated that the COP-SAT may be a practical tool for the identification of patients at risk of developing sleep disorders in the community.

Pilot evaluation of an adolescent risk and injury prevention programme incorporating curriculum and school connectedness components

School connectedness is an important protective factor for adolescent risk-taking behaviour. This study examined a pilot version of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) programme, combining teacher professional development for increasing school connectedness (connectedness component) with a risk and injury prevention curriculum for early adolescents (curriculum component). A process evaluation was conducted on the connectedness component, involving assessments of programme reach, participant receptiveness and initial use, and a preliminary impact evaluation was conducted on the combined connectedness and curriculum programme. The connectedness component was well received by teacher participants, who saw benefits for both themselves and their students. Classroom observation also showed that teachers who received professional development made use of the programme strategies. Grade 8 students who participated in the SPIY programme were less likely to report violent behaviour at six-month follow-up than were control students, and trends also suggested reduced transport injuries. The results of this research support the use of the combined SPIY connectedness and curriculum components in a large-scale effectiveness trial to assess the impact of the programme on students’ connectedness, risk-taking and associated injuries.

Teachers’ perceptions of school connectedness and risk-taking in adolescence

School connectedness has been shown to be an important protective factor in adolescent development, which is associated with reduced risk-taking behaviour. Interventions to increase students’ connectedness to school commonly incorporate aspects of teacher training. To date, however, research on connectedness has largely been based on student survey data, with no reported research addressing teachers’ perceptions of students’ connectedness and its association with student behavior. This research attempted to address this gap in the literature through in depth interviews with 14 school teachers and staff from two Australian high schools. Findings showed that teachers perceived students’ connectedness to be important in regards to reducing problem behavior, and discussed aspects of connectedness, including fairness and discipline, feeling valued, belonging and having teacher support, and being successfully engaged in school, as being particularly important. This research enables the development of school-based intervention programs that are based on both student and teacher-focused research.

Social media and Web 2.0 : teacher-librarians, risk and inequity

This paper reports research into teacher-­‐librarians’ perceptions of using social media and Web 2.0 in teaching and learning. A pilot study was conducted with teacher-­‐librarians in five government schools and five private schools in southeast Queensland. The findings revealed that there was a strong digital divide between government schools and private schools, with government schools suffering severe restrictions on the use of social media and Web 2.0, leading to an unsophisticated use of these technologies. It is argued that internet ‘over-­‐ blocking’ may lead to government school students not being empowered to manage risks in an open internet environment. Furthermore, their use of information for academic and recreational learning may be compromised. This has implications particularly for low socioeconomic students, leading to further inequity in the process and outcomes of Australian education.

The decline in activities of daily living at discharge (DADLD) index : stratifying patients at lower and higher risk

Background: Decreased ability to perform Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) during hospitalisation has negative consequences for patients and health service delivery. Objective: To develop an Index to stratify patients at lower and higher risk of a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge. Design: Prospective two cohort study comprising a derivation (n=389; mean age 82.3 years; SD� 7.1) and a validation cohort (n=153; mean age 81.5 years; SD� 6.1). Patients and setting: General medical patients aged = 70 years admitted to three university-affiliated acute care hospitals in Brisbane, Australia. Measurement and main results: The short ADL Scale was used to identify a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs from premorbid to discharge. In the derivation cohort, 77 patients (19.8%) experienced a significant decline. Four significant factors were identified for patients independent at baseline: 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with bathing'; 'difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)'; 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework'; a 'history of experiencing at least one fall in the previous 90 days prior to hospital admission' in addition to 'independent at baseline', which was protective against decline at discharge. 'Difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)' and 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework' were also predictors for patients dependent in ADLs at baseline. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of the DADLD dichotomised risk scores were: 83.1% (95% CI 72.8; 90.7); 60.5% (95% CI 54.8; 65.9); 34.2% (95% CI 27.5; 41.5); 93.5% (95% CI 89.2; 96.5). In the validation cohort, 47 patients (30.7%) experienced a significant decline. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of the DADLD were: 78.7% (95% CI 64.3; 89.3); 69.8% (95% CI 60.1, 78.3); 53.6% (95% CI 41.2; 65.7); 88.1% (95% CI 79.2; 94.1). Conclusions: The DADLD Index is a useful tool for identifying patients at higher risk of decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge.

Assessing the Impact of Sensor Accuracy and Sensor Choice on Air Traffic Conflict Risk Estimation using Risk-Ratio Concepts

One of the primary desired capabilities of any future air traffic separation management system is the ability to provide early conflict detection and resolution effectively and efficiently. In this paper, we consider the risk of conflict as a primary measurement to be used for early conflict detection. This paper focuses on developing a novel approach to assess the impact of different measurement uncertainty models on the estimated risk of conflict. The measurement uncertainty model can be used to represent different sensor accuracy and sensor choices. Our study demonstrates the value of modelling measurement uncertainty in the conflict risk estimation problem and presents techniques providing a means of assessing sensor requirements to achieve desired conflict detection performance.

Pressure ulcers in the adult intensive care unit : a literature review of patient risk factors and risk assessment scales

Background: Critically ill patients are at high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development due to their high acuity and the invasive nature of the multiple interventions and therapies they receive. With reported incidence rates of PrU development in the adult critical care population as high as 56%, the identification of patients at high risk of PrU development is essential. This paper will explore the association between PrU development and risk factors. It will also explore PrU development and the use of risk assessment scales for critically ill patients in adult intensive care units. Method: A literature search from 2000 to 2012 using the CINHAL, Cochrane Library, EBSCOHost, Medline (via EBSCOHost), PubMed, ProQuest and Google Scholar databases was conducted. Key words used were: pressure ulcer/s; pressure sore/s; decubitus ulcer/s; bed sore/s; critical care; intensive care; critical illness; prevalence; incidence; prevention; management; risk factor; risk assessment scale. Results: Nineteen articles were included in this review; eight studies addressing PrU risk factors, eight studies addressing risk assessment scales and three studies overlapping both. Results from the studies reviewed identified 28 intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors which may lead to PrU development. Development of a risk factor prediction model in this patient population, although beneficial, appears problematic due to many issues such as diverse diagnoses and subsequent patient needs. Additionally, several risk assessment instruments have been developed for early screening of patients at higher risk of developing PrU in the ICU. No existing risk assessment scales are valid for identification high risk critically ill patient,with the majority of scales potentially over-predicting patients at risk for PrU development. Conclusion: Research studies to inform the risk factors for potential pressure ulcer development are inconsistent. Additionally, there is no consistent or clear evidence which demonstrates any scale to better or more effective than another when used to identify the patients at risk for PrU development. Furthermore robust research is needed to identify the risk factors and develop valid scales for measuring the risk of PrU development in ICU.