991 resultados para predictor-corrector methods
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Demand response has gain increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets environment. The use of demand resources is also advantageous in the context of smart grid operation. In addition to the need of new business models for integrating demand response, adequate methods are necessary for an accurate determination of the consumers’ performance evaluation after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper makes a comparison between some of the existing baseline methods related to the consumers’ performance evaluation, comparing the results obtained with these methods and also with a method proposed by the authors of the paper. A case study demonstrates the application of the referred methods to real consumption data belonging to a consumer connected to a distribution network.
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Electric power networks, namely distribution networks, have been suffering several changes during the last years due to changes in the power systems operation, towards the implementation of smart grids. Several approaches to the operation of the resources have been introduced, as the case of demand response, making use of the new capabilities of the smart grids. In the initial levels of the smart grids implementation reduced amounts of data are generated, namely consumption data. The methodology proposed in the present paper makes use of demand response consumers’ performance evaluation methods to determine the expected consumption for a given consumer. Then, potential commercial losses are identified using monthly historic consumption data. Real consumption data is used in the case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies,6,IET, pp.9-51
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BACKGROUND: Some studies have reported an inverse association between dairy product (DP) consumption and weight or fat mass loss. OBJECTIVES: The objective of our study was to assess the association between DP intake and abdominal obesity (AO) among Azorean adolescents. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This study was a cross-sectional analysis. A total of 903 adolescents (370 boys) aged 15--16 years was evaluated. Anthropometric measurements were collected (weight, height and waist circumference (WC)) and McCarthy’s cut-points were used to categorize WC. AO was defined when WC was X90th percentile. Adolescent food intake was assessed using a self-administered semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and DP intake was categorized in o2 and X2 servings/day. Data were analyzed separately for girls and boys, and logistical regression was used to estimate the association between DPs and AO adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: The prevalence of AO was 54.9% (boys: 32.1% and girls: 70.7%, Po0.001). For boys and girls, DP consumption was 2.3±1.9 and 2.1±1.6 servings/day (P¼0.185), respectively. In both genders, the proportion of adolescents with WC o90th percentile was higher among individuals who reported a dairy intake of X2 servings/day compared with those with an intake o2 servings/day (boys: 71% vs 65% and girls: 36% vs 24%, Po0.05). After adjustments for confounders, two or more DP servings per day were a negative predictor of AO (odds ratio, 0.217; 95% confidence interval, 0.075 -- 0.633) only in boys. CONCLUSION: We found a protective association between DP intake and AO only in boys.
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Submitted in partial fulfillment for the Requirements for the Degree of PhD in Mathematics, in the Speciality of Statistics in the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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RESUMO: A presente dissertação para tese de doutoramento apresenta o desenvolvimento e a validação de um método simples e original para o diagnóstico de calcificações vasculares em doentes em diálise, utilizando um score semiquantitativo criado por nós e obtido em RX simples da bacia e das mãos, denominado score de calcifi cação vascular simples. Demonstramos que este score vascular simples é preditor de risco cardiovascular nos doentes em diálise. O score de calcificação vascular simples associou-se ainda à baixa densidade mineral óssea avaliada por dual energy X -ray absortiometry (DXA) no colo do fémur. Verifi camos igualmente que, em doentes em diálise, as calcifi cações coronárias quantifi cadas pelo score de Agatston e o score de calcifi cação vascular simples se associaram a um menor volume ósseo avaliado em biopsias ósseas. Estes trabalhos corroboram a hipótese da existência de um elo de ligação entre a doença óssea e a doença vascular nos doentes em diálise, e um dos elementos que contribuem para este elo de ligação podem ser as calcificações vasculares. Este score de calcificação vascular simples avalia calcifi cações em artérias de grande, médio e pequeno calibre, e inclui os dois padrões radiológicos de calcificação: calcificação linear, associada à calcifi cação da camada média da parede arterial, e calcificação irregular, associada à calcifi cação da camada íntima arterial1. Nos diferentes trabalhos por nós publicados demonstramos que as calcificações vasculares avaliadas por este método simples e barato permitem a identificação de indivíduos com elevado risco cardiovascular. Este score vascular associa -se a maior risco de mortalidade cardiovascular2, de mortalidade de causa global3, de internamentos cardiovasculares2, de doença ardiovascular2, de doença arterial periférica2,4,de calcifi cações valvulares5 e de rigidez arterial3. As guidelines KDIGO (Kidney disease: improving global outcomes), publicadas em 2009,sugerem que os doentes renais crónicos nos estadios 3 a 5, com calcificações vasculares e valvulares, devem ser considerados como apresentando o mais elevado risco cardiovascular6. A elevada mortalidade dos doentes renais crónicos não é totalmente explicada pelos fatores de risco tradicionais7. A organização KDIGO defende, desde 2006, a hipótese da existência de um elo de ligação entre a doença óssea e a doença vascular8. Esta ligação pode ser explicada pelas alterações do metabolismo mineral e ósseo e pela sua interação com as calcificações vasculares. Verificamos, nos nossos trabalhos, uma associação entre calcifi cações vasculares e doença óssea. O baixo volume ósseo diagnosticado por análise histomorfométrica de biopsias ósseas foi preditor de maior risco de calcificações vasculares avaliadas pelo score de calcifi cação vascular simples (dados apresentados nesta dissertação, no capítulo 6) e pelo score coronário de Agatston num grupo de doentes em diálise9. A contribuição original deste artigo9 foi considerada merecedora de um editorial feito pelo Dr. Gérard London10, investigador líder na área da calcificação vascular dos doentes renais crónicos e actual Presidente da EDTA (European Dialysis and Transplantation Association). Fomos também os primeiros a descrever uma associação independente e inversa entre a densidade mineral avaliada no colo do fémur por DXA (dual energy X -ray absortiometry) com calcificações vasculares avaliadas pelo score de calcificação vascular simples, com rigidez arterial avaliada por velocidade de onda de pulsocarotidofemoral e com doença arterial periférica diagnosticada por critérios clínicos11. Fomos igualmente os primeiros a mostrar uma correlação signifi cativa entre a densidade mineral óssea avaliada por DXA no colo do fémur, mas não na coluna lombar, com a espessura cortical avaliada por análise histomorfométrica em biopsia óssea12. O nosso estudo atribui pela primeira vez à DXA um papel no diagnóstico de porosidade cortical nos doentes em diálise. A utilidade da avaliação diferencial da densidade mineral óssea cortical e trabecular necessita ainda de ser confirmada em estudos prospectivos. Este achado inovador do nosso estudo foi mencionado pela ERBP (European Renal Best Practice) no comentário feito à posição da KDIGO que considera ser reduzida a utilidade da densidade mineral óssea nos doentes em diálise13. Dois dos trabalhos incluídos nesta dissertação foram referenciados nas guidelines KDIGO 2009 para avaliar a prevalência das calcificações vasculares (KDIGO 2009: Tabela suplementar 10, Fig. 3.6) e para validar a associação entre calcificações vasculares e mortalidade cardiovascular (KDIGO 2009: Tabela suplementar 12, Fig. 3.7)6. A inclusão destes nossos dois estudos nas referências destas guidelines, que utilizaram o exigente sistema GRADE (Grades of recommendation, assessment, development, and evaluation) na classificação e selecção dos estudos, valida o interesse científico dos nossos trabalhos. O diagnóstico de calcificações vasculares tem um interesse prático para os doentes renais crónicos. A presença de calcifi cações vasculares é um sinal de alerta para a existência de um elevado risco cardiovascular, e esta informação pode ser utilizada para modificar a terapêutica nestes doentes6. Diferentes métodos podem ser usados para diagnosticar calcificações vasculares nos doentes em diálise14,15. O score de calcificação vascular simples tem a vantagem da simplicidade e de poder ser facilmente interpretado pelo nefrologista, sem necessidade de um radiologista. A reprodutibilidade deste score já foi demonstrada por diferentes grupos em estudos nacionais e internacionais16-24. Nestes estudos foi demonstrado que as calcifi cações vasculares avaliadas pelo método criado por nós são preditoras de maior risco de eventos cardiovasculares16, de amputações dos membros inferiores17, de velocidade de onda de pulso18,19, de calcificações corneanas e conjuntivais20 e de calcifi cações coronárias21. Também foi demonstrada uma associação inversa entre o score de calcificação vascular simples com os níveis séricos de PTH21, com os níveis de 25(OH)vitamina D 22,23 e com os níveis de fetuína A19,24. Todos estes estudos, realizados por diferentes grupos, que utilizaram o score de calcificação vascular simples na sua metodologia, comprovam a facilidade de utilização deste score e a concordância de resultados atestam a sua reprodutibilidade e a utilidade na avaliação dos doentes renais crónicos. ---------------------------ABSTRACT: This thesis presents the development and validation of a simple and original method to identify vascular calcifications in dialysis patients, using a semi -quantitative score that we have created and that is obtained in plain X -ray of pelvis and hands. This score was named in different publications as “simple vascular calcifi cation score”. We have demonstrated that this score is a predictor of higher cardiovascular risk in dialysis patients. The simple vascular calcification score was also associated with lower mineral bone density evaluated by DXA in femoral neck. In hemodialysis patients coronary calcifications evaluated by the coronary Agatston score and by the simple vascular calcification score were associated with lower bone volume analysed in bone biopsies. These studies corroborate the hypothesis of the existence of a link between bone disease and vascular disease in dialysis patients and one of the elements of this link may be vascular calcifications. This simple vascular calcification score identifi es calcifications in large, medium and small calibre arteries and includes the two radiological patterns of arterial calcifi cation: linear calcification which has been associated with the calcifi cation of the media layer of the arterial wall and irregular and patchy calcification which has been associated with the calcifi cation of the intima layer of the arterial wall1. In the several studies that we have published we have demonstrated that vascular calcifications evaluated by this simple and inexpensive method allow the identification of patients with high cardiovascular risk. This simple vascular calcification score is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality2, all -cause mortality3, cardiovascular hospitalizations2, cardiovascular disease2, peripheral artery disease2,4, valvular calcifi cations5 and arterial stiffness3.KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines published in 2009 suggest that chronic kidney disease patients in stages 3 to 5, with vascular and valvular calcifications should be considered to be at the highest cardiovascular risk6. The high mortality of chronic kidney disease patients is not completely explained by the traditional risk factors7 and KDIGO group supports, since 2006, the hypothesis of the existence of a link between bone disease and vascular disease8.This link may be explained by the alterations of the bone and mineral metabolism and their interaction with development and progression of vascular calcifications. We have also verifi ed in our studies the existence of an association between vascular calcifications and bone disease. Low bone volume diagnosed by histomorphometric analysis of bone biopsies, in a group of dialysis patients, was independently associated with the simple vascular calcification score (data presented in this thesis,chapter 6) and with coronary calcifications evaluated by the Agatston score9. The original contribution of this article published in CJASN9 deserved a commentary in an Editorial written by Prof. Gérard London10 leader investigator in this area and current EDTA (European Dialysis and Transplantation Association) President. We were also the fi rst group to describe an independent and inverse association between bone mineral density evaluated in the femoral neck by DXA (dual energy X -ray absortiometry) with vascular calcifications evaluated by the simple vascular calcification score, with arterial stiffness evaluated by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and with peripheral artery disease diagnosed by clinical criteria11. We were also the first group to demonstrate a significant correlation between bone mineral density evaluated by DXA in femoral neck but not in lumbar spine, with cortical thickness evaluated by histomorphometric analysis of bone biopsy12. Our study has attributed to DXA, for the first time, a role in the diagnosis of cortical porosity in dialysis patients. The clinical utility of the differential evaluation of bone mineral density in cortical or trabecular bone needs, however, to be confi rmed in prospective studies. This original fi nding of our study was mentioned by ERBP (European Renal Best Practice) commenting the KDIGO position in relation with the reduced utility of bone mineral density evaluation in dialysis patients13. Two of the studies included in this thesis have been integrated in a group of studies selected as references by the KDIGO guidelines published in 2009 to evaluate the prevalence of vascular calcifications in CKD patients (KDIGO 2009: Supplementary Table 10, Fig. 3.6) and to corroborate the association between vascular calcifications and cardiovascular mortality (KDIGO 2009: Supplementary Table 12, Fig. 3.7)6. The inclusion of both studies as references in the KDIGO guidelines that have used the exigent GRADE system (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) in the classifi cation and selection of studies, validates the scientifi c value of our studies. The diagnosis of vascular calcifi cations has a practical interest for chronic kidney disease patients. The presence of vascular calcifications is an alert sign to the existence of a high cardiovascular risk and this information may be used to modify the treatment of these patients6. Different methods may be used to detect the presence of vascular calcifications in dialysis patients14,15. The simple vascular calcifi cation score has the advantage of being simple, inexpensive and easily evaluated by the Nephrologist without the need for a Radiologist interpretation. The reproducibility of this method has already been demonstrated by other groups in national and international studies16 -24. It was demonstrated in those studies that vascular calcifi cations evaluated by the method created by us, predict higher risk of cardiovascular events16, higher risk of lower limbs amputations17, higher pulse wave velocity18,19, corneal and conjuntival calcifi cations 20 and coronary calcifi cations21. A negative association between the simple vascular calcification score and PTH levels21, 25(OH) vitamin D levels22,23 and Fetuin A levels19,24 has also been demonstrated. All these studies performed by different groups that have used the simple vascular calcifi cation score in their methods demonstrate that this score is simple, useful and reproducible in the evaluation of chronic kidney disease patients simple, useful and reproducible in the evaluation of chronic kidney disease patients.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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BACKGROUND: The hospital environment has many occupational health risks that predispose healthcare workers to various kinds of work accidents. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to compare different methods for work accidents investigation and to verify their suitability in hospital environment. METHODS: For this purpose, we selected three types of accidents that were related with needle stick, worker fall and inadequate effort/movement during the mobilization of patients. A total of thirty accidents were analysed with six different work accidents investigation methods. RESULTS: The results showed that organizational factors were the group of causes which had the greatest impact in the three types of work accidents. CONCLUSIONS: The methods selected to be compared in this paper are applicable and appropriate for the work accidents investigation in hospitals. However, the Registration, Research and Analysis of Work Accidents method (RIAAT) showed to be an optimal technique to use in this context.
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The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI) predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI), this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL). Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI) with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life.
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Two passive methods in the assessment of intradomiciliary infestation by Rhodnius ecuadoriensis were tested: (i) the Gomes Nuñez sensor box (GN), (ii) sheets of white typing paper and (iii) one active timed manual method. The study was carried out in the Alto Chicama River Valley, Province of Gran Chimú, Department of La Libertad. The study design consisted of an initial searching of triatomines inside of the domestic environment by the manual capture active procedure (man/hour) covering all the studied houses. Then, matched pairs of GN boxes and paper sheets were simultaneously installed in the bedrooms of 207 households distributed in 19 localities. A comparative prospective trial of these passive detection devices were monitored at 2, 4 and, finally 6 months follow-up. Parasitological Trypanosoma rangeli and/or T. cruzi infections were investigated in two houses with high level of infestation by R. ecuadoriensis. 16.9% of the 207 households investigated by an initial active manual method were infested with R. ecuadoriensis. The proportion of infested houses fluctuated from 6.2 to 55.5% amongst the 19 localities investigated. T. rangeli natural infection was detected in R. ecuadoriensis specimens collected in two households. Parasite rates in the bugs ranged from 16.6 to 21.7% respectively. The most striking fact was an average rate of salivary gland infection ranging from 7.4 to 8.3%. At the end of the sixth month period, a cumulative incidence of 31.4% of positive GN boxes against 15.9% for paper sheets was recorded. All three methods combined detected domestic infestation in 129 (62.3%) of the 207 houses studied in the 19 localities. The range of houses infested varies from 6.7% to 92.9%. In areas with low bug density infestation rates, the methodology experienced in our studies, seems to be the best choice for investigations on domestic R. ecuadoriensis populations.
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Salmonella Infantis has been the second most common serovar in Argentina in the last two years, being isolated mostly from paediatric hospitalised patients. In order to determine the clonal relationship among Salmonella Infantis strains, we examined 15 isolates from paediatric patient faeces in Argentina (12 geographically related and 3 geographically non-related) by using antimicrobial susceptibility, plasmid profiling, repetitive extragenic palindromic (REP) PCR, enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus (ERIC) PCR, and low-frequency restriction analysis of chromosomal DNA by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Four Spanish strains were included as controls of clonal diversity in molecular techniques. Antibiotype and plasmid profile was not useful as epidemiological tools. PFGE and REP-PCR were able to discriminate between Argentinean and Spanish isolates of Salmonella Infantis allowing to detect genetically related strains in three different cities. This finding indicates that a possible spread of a clone of this serovar in the North-eastern Region of Argentina has taken place in 1998.