Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

This thesis consists of four essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The main topic is investors' heterogeneity: I investigates the equilibrium implications for the financial markets when investors have different attitudes toward risk. The first chapter studies why expected risk and remuneration on the aggregate market are negatively related, even if intuition and standard theory suggest a positive relation. I show that the negative trade-off can obtain in equilibrium if investors' beliefs about economic fundamentals are procyclically biased and the market Sharpe ratio is countercyclical. I verify that such conditions hold in the real markets and I find empirical support for the risk-return dynamics predicted by the model. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay studies how het¬erogeneity in risk preferences interacts with other sources of heterogeneity and how this affects asset prices in equilibrium. Using perceived macroeconomic un¬certainty as source of heterogeneity, the model helps to explain some patterns of financial returns, even if heterogeneity is small as suggested by survey data. The second essay determines conditions such that equilibrium prices have analytical solutions when investors have heterogeneous risk attitudes and macroeconomic fundamentals feature latent uncertainty. This approach provides additional in-sights to the previous literature where models require numerical solutions. The third chapter studies why equity claims (i.e. assets paying a single future dividend) feature premia and risk decreasing with the horizon, even if standard models imply the opposite shape. I show that labor relations helps to explain the puzzle. When workers have bargaining power to exploit partial income insurance within the firm, wages are smoother and dividends are riskier than in a standard economy. Distributional risk among workers and shareholders provides a rationale to the equity short-term risk, which leads to downward sloping term structures of premia and risk for equity claim. Résumé Cette thèse se compose de quatre essais dans l'évaluation des actifs d'équilibre. Le sujet principal est l'hétérogénéité des investisseurs: J'étudie les implications d'équilibre pour les marchés financiers où les investisseurs ont des attitudes différentes face au risque. Le première chapitre étudie pourquoi attendus risque et la rémunération sur le marché global sont liées négativement, même si l'intuition et la théorie standard suggèrent une relation positive. Je montre que le compromis négatif peut obtenir en équilibre si les croyances des investisseurs sur les fondamentaux économiques sont procyclique biaisées et le ratio de Sharpe du marché est anticyclique. Je vérifier que ces conditions sont réalisées dans les marchés réels et je trouve un appui empirique à la dynamique risque-rendement prédites par le modèle. Le deuxième chapitre se compose de deux essais. Le première essai étudie com¬ment hétérogénéité dans les préférences de risque inter agit avec d'autres sources d'hétérogénéité et comment cela affecte les prix des actifs en équilibre. Utili¬sation de l'incertitude macroéconomique perù comme source d'hétérogénéité, le modèle permet d'expliquer certaines tendances de rendements financiers, même si l'hétérogénéité est faible comme suggéré par les données d'enquête. Le deuxième essai détermine des conditions telles que les prix d'équilibre disposer de solutions analytiques lorsque les investisseurs ont des attitudes des risques hétérogènes et les fondamentaux macroéconomiques disposent d'incertitude latente. Cette approche fournit un éclairage supplémentaire à la littérature antérieure où les modèles nécessitent des solutions numériques. Le troisième chapitre étudie pourquoi les equity-claims (actifs que paient un seul dividende futur) ont les primes et le risque décroissante avec l'horizon, mme si les modèles standards impliquent la forme opposée. Je montre que les relations de travail contribue à expliquer l'énigme. Lorsque les travailleurs ont le pouvoir de négociation d'exploiter assurance revenu partiel dans l'entreprise, les salaires sont plus lisses et les dividendes sont plus risqués que dans une économie standard. Risque de répartition entre les travailleurs et les actionnaires fournit une justification à le risque à court terme, ce qui conduit à des term-structures en pente descendante des primes et des risques pour les equity-claims.

Hepatitis B virus screening in contacts of blood donors with antibodies against core protein (anti-HBc), but without surface antigen (HBsAg)

To increase blood safety Brazil introduced screening for anti-HBc among blood donors in 1993. There was a decrease in the hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission, but this measure identified a great number of HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc-positive donors. Surveillance policy determines that contacts of HBV carriers should be screened to HBV markers, but there is no recommendation about how to guide contacts of HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc-positive donors. Aiming to evaluate whether the contacts of this group are at greater risk for HBV infection, a cross-sectional study was performed to compare prevalence of HBV infection between contacts of HBsAg-positive blood donors (group I) and contacts of HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc-positive donors (group II). Contacts were submitted to a questionnaire and blood tests for HBV markers. In group I (n = 143), 53 (37.1%) were anti-HBc-positive and 11 (7.7%) were HBsAg-positive. In group II (n = 111), there were 9 and 0.9%, respectively. HBV exposure was associated with group I, sexual activity, blood transfusion, being one of the donor's parents, and living for more than ten years with the donor. Regarding the families as sample units, it was more common to find at least one member with HBV markers (p < 0.05) among the families of group I compared to group II. Contacts of HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc-positive individuals presented a much lower risk of having already been exposed to HBV and there is no need to screen them for HBV in low to moderate prevalence populations.

Physical activity and pregnancy

SUMMARY : The traditional medical advice for pregnant women has been to reduce their physical activity (PA) levels. The advice was based on concerns that exercise could affect pregnancy outcomes by increasing core body temperature, by increasing the risk of maternal musculoskeletal injury and by altering the transplacental transport of oxygen and nutrients to maternal skeletal muscle rather than to the developing foetus. In the meantime, several studies have provided new information on adaptation of the pregnant woman and her foetus to moderate PA. New investigations have shown no adverse maternal or neonatal outcomes, abnormal foetal growth, increase in early pregnancy loss, or late pregnancy complications. Moreover, enrolment in moderate PA has proven to result in marked health benefits including improved maternal cardiovascular function, reduction of excessive weight gain and fat retention, less complicated labour, improved foetal stress tolerance and neurobehavioral maturation. In view of the beneficial effects, current recommendations encourage healthy pregnant women to engage in 30 minutes of moderate PA on most, if not all, days of the week. This thesis work addressed several questions. Firstly, it examined whether compliance with the recommended levels of PA during pregnancy results in better preparedness for the sudden physical exertion of labour and delivery. Secondly, it measured PA during pregnancy as compared to postpartum. Lastly, it assessed the influence of pre-pregnancy body mass index on gestational resting metabolic rate. Data collection was conducted on healthy women living in Switzerland during the third trimester of pregnancy and postpartum. Total and activity energy expenditure was assessed through 24-hour heart rate and accelerations recordings, and cardiovascular fitness through an individual step-test. Information related to pregnancy, labour and delivery was collected from medical records. The results indicate that a minimum 30 min of moderate PA per day during pregnancy are associated with better cardiovascular fitness and lower risk of operative delivery with no negative effects on maternal and foetal conditions (study 1). Despite these benefits, a substantial proportion of pregnant women (39%) living in Switzerland do not meet the PA recommendations. The decrease in activity related energy expenditure during pregnancy compared to postpartum was measured to be around 100 kcal/day (~13%), whereas the total energy expenditure was found to increase by 300 kcal/day (study 2). Thus, the energy cost of late pregnancy in Switzerland corresponds to 200 kca/day. These findings are based on average values of the study group. It should be noted, however, that large variations in individual energy expenditure may occur depending on the pre-pregnancy body mass index (study 3). When adjusted to body weight, gestational resting metabolic rate is significantly lower among women of high pre-pregnancy body mass index compared to women of normal or low pre-pregnancy body mass index. This can be explained by the fact that resting metabolic rate is primarily a function of fat-free mass, and when expressed per kg body weight, it decreases as the percentage of body fat increases. If energy intake is not modified appropriately in order to match lower energy cost per kg body weight in overweight and obese women it will result in positive energy balance, thus contributing to the current trend towards increasing adiposity in affluent society. The results of these studies go beyond the current state of knowledge on PA and pregnancy (study 4) and provide valid evidence to guide clinical practice. In view of the current epidemic of sedentary behaviour and obesity related pathology, the findings contribute new and reliable information to public health policies regarding the effects of PA in pregnancy, an important period of life for both mother and infant.

Effect of embryo culture media on birthweight and length in singleton term infants after IVF-ICSI.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To investigate if two distinct, commercially available embryo culture media have a different effect on birthweight and length of singleton term infants conceived after IVF-ICSI. METHODS: University hospital based cohort study. Between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2004, patients conceiving through IVF-ICSI at the University Hospital, Lausanne have been allocated to two distinct embryo culture media. Only term singleton pregnancies were analysed (n = 525). Data analysis was performed according to two commercially available culture media: Vitrolife (n = 352) versus Cook (n = 173). Analysis was performed through linear regression adjusted for confounders. Media were considered equivalent if the 95% confidence interval lay between -150 g/+150 g. RESULTS: Length, gestational age and distribution of birthweight percentiles did not differ between groups (for both genders). Analysis of the whole cohort, adjusted for a subset of confounders, resulted in a statistically not different mean birthweight between the two groups (Vitrolife +37 g vs Cook, 95%CI: -46 g to 119 g) suggesting equivalence. Adjustment for an enlarged number of confounders in a subsample of patients (n = 258) also revealed no relevant mean birthweight difference of +71 g (95%CI: -45 g to 187 g) in favour of Vitrolife; however, lacking power to prove equivalence. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that significant differences in birthweight due to these two distinct, commercially available embryo culture media are unlikely.

The robustness of the weak selection approximation for the evolution of altruism against strong selection.

The weak selection approximation of population genetics has made possible the analysis of social evolution under a considerable variety of biological scenarios. Despite its extensive usage, the accuracy of weak selection in predicting the emergence of altruism under limited dispersal when selection intensity increases remains unclear. Here, we derive the condition for the spread of an altruistic mutant in the infinite island model of dispersal under a Moran reproductive process and arbitrary strength of selection. The simplicity of the model allows us to compare weak and strong selection regimes analytically. Our results demonstrate that the weak selection approximation is robust to moderate increases in selection intensity and therefore provides a good approximation to understand the invasion of altruism in spatially structured population. In particular, we find that the weak selection approximation is excellent even if selection is very strong, when either migration is much stronger than selection or when patches are large. Importantly, we emphasize that the weak selection approximation provides the ideal condition for the invasion of altruism, and increasing selection intensity will impede the emergence of altruism. We discuss that this should also hold for more complicated life cycles and for culturally transmitted altruism. Using the weak selection approximation is therefore unlikely to miss out on any demographic scenario that lead to the evolution of altruism under limited dispersal.

Effect of inspiratory threshold loading on ventilatory kinetics during constant-load exercise.

Humoral factors play an important role in the control of exercise hyperpnea. The role of neuromechanical ventilatory factors, however, is still being investigated. We tested the hypothesis that the afferents of the thoracopulmonary system, and consequently of the neuromechanical ventilatory loop, have an influence on the kinetics of oxygen consumption (VO2), carbon dioxide output (VCO2), and ventilation (VE) during moderate intensity exercise. We did this by comparing the ventilatory time constants (tau) of exercise with and without an inspiratory load. Fourteen healthy, trained men (age 22.6 +/- 3.2 yr) performed a continuous incremental cycle exercise test to determine maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max = 55.2 +/- 5.8 ml x min(-1) x kg(-1)). On another day, after unloaded warm-up they performed randomized constant-load tests at 40% of their VO2max for 8 min, one with and the other without an inspiratory threshold load of 15 cmH2O. Ventilatory variables were obtained breath by breath. Phase 2 ventilatory kinetics (VO2, VCO2, and VE) could be described in all cases by a monoexponential function. The bootstrap method revealed small coefficients of variation for the model parameters, indicating an accurate determination for all parameters. Paired Student's t-tests showed that the addition of the inspiratory resistance significantly increased the tau during phase 2 of VO2 (43.1 +/- 8.6 vs. 60.9 +/- 14.1 s; P < 0.001), VCO2 (60.3 +/- 17.6 vs. 84.5 +/- 18.1 s; P < 0.001) and VE (59.4 +/- 16.1 vs. 85.9 +/- 17.1 s; P < 0.001). The average rise in tau was 41.3% for VO2, 40.1% for VCO2, and 44.6% for VE. The tau changes indicated that neuromechanical ventilatory factors play a role in the ventilatory response to moderate exercise.

The BRAIN TRIAL: a randomised, placebo controlled trial of a Bradykinin B2 receptor antagonist (Anatibant) in patients with traumatic brain injury

BACKGROUND Cerebral oedema is associated with significant neurological damage in patients with traumatic brain injury. Bradykinin is an inflammatory mediator that may contribute to cerebral oedema by increasing the permeability of the blood-brain barrier. We evaluated the safety and effectiveness of the non-peptide bradykinin B2 receptor antagonist Anatibant in the treatment of patients with traumatic brain injury. During the course of the trial, funding was withdrawn by the sponsor. METHODS Adults with traumatic brain injury and a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 12 or less, who had a CT scan showing an intracranial abnormality consistent with trauma, and were within eight hours of their injury were randomly allocated to low, medium or high dose Anatibant or to placebo. Outcomes were Serious Adverse Events (SAE), mortality 15 days following injury and in-hospital morbidity assessed by the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the Disability Rating Scale (DRS) and a modified version of the Oxford Handicap Scale (HIREOS). RESULTS 228 patients out of a planned sample size of 400 patients were randomised. The risk of experiencing one or more SAEs was 26.4% (43/163) in the combined Anatibant treated group, compared to 19.3% (11/57) in the placebo group (relative risk = 1.37; 95% CI 0.76 to 2.46). All cause mortality in the Anatibant treated group was 19% and in the placebo group 15.8% (relative risk 1.20, 95% CI 0.61 to 2.36). The mean GCS at discharge was 12.48 in the Anatibant treated group and 13.0 in the placebo group. Mean DRS was 11.18 Anatibant versus 9.73 placebo, and mean HIREOS was 3.94 Anatibant versus 3.54 placebo. The differences between the mean levels for GCS, DRS and HIREOS in the Anatibant and placebo groups, when adjusted for baseline GCS, showed a non-significant trend for worse outcomes in all three measures. CONCLUSION This trial did not reach the planned sample size of 400 patients and consequently, the study power to detect an increase in the risk of serious adverse events was reduced. This trial provides no reliable evidence of benefit or harm and a larger trial would be needed to establish safety and effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN23625128.

Iron deficiency and anaemia in bariatric surgical patients: causes, diagnosis and proper management

Obesity-induced chronic inflammation leads to activation of the immune system that causes alterations of iron homeostasis including hypoferraemia, iron-restricted erythropoiesis, and finally mild-to-moderate anaemia. Thus, preoperative anaemia and iron deficiency are common among obese patients scheduled for bariatric surgery (BS). Assessment of patients should include a complete haematological and biochemical laboratory work-up, including measurement of iron stores, vitamin B12 and folate. In addition, gastrointestinal evaluation is recommended for most patients with iron-deficiency anaemia. On the other hand, BS is a long-lasting inflammatory stimulus in itself and entails a reduction of the gastric capacity and/or exclusion from the gastrointestinal tract which impair nutrients absorption, including dietary iron. Chronic gastrointestinal blood loss and iron-losingenteropathy may also contribute to iron deficiency after BS. Perioperative anaemia has been linked to increased postoperative morbidity and mortality and decreased quality of life after major surgery, whereas treatment of perioperative anaemia, and even haematinic deficiency without anaemia, has been shown to improve patient outcomes and quality of life. However, long-term follow-up data in regard to prevalence, severity, and causes of anaemia after BS are mostly absent. Iron supplements should be administered to patients after BS, but compliance with oral iron is no good. In addition, once iron deficiency has developed, it may prove refractory to oral treatment. In these situations, IV iron (which can circumvent the iron blockade at enterocytes and macrophages) has emerged as a safe and effective alternative for perioperative anaemia management. Monitoring should continue indefinitely even after the initial iron repletion and anaemia resolution, and maintenance IV iron treatment should be provided as required. New IV preparations, such ferric carboxymaltose, are safe, easy to use and up to 1000 mg can be given in a single session, thus providing an excellent tool to avoid or treat iron deficiency in this patient population.

Event-free survival at 24 months is a robust end point for disease-related outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with immunochemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Studies of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) are typically evaluated by using a time-to-event approach with relapse, re-treatment, and death commonly used as the events. We evaluated the timing and type of events in newly diagnosed DLBCL and compared patient outcome with reference population data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL treated with immunochemotherapy were prospectively enrolled onto the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic Specialized Program of Research Excellence Molecular Epidemiology Resource (MER) and the North Central Cancer Treatment Group NCCTG-N0489 clinical trial from 2002 to 2009. Patient outcomes were evaluated at diagnosis and in the subsets of patients achieving event-free status at 12 months (EFS12) and 24 months (EFS24) from diagnosis. Overall survival was compared with age- and sex-matched population data. Results were replicated in an external validation cohort from the Groupe d'Etude des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA) Lymphome Non Hodgkinien 2003 (LNH2003) program and a registry based in Lyon, France. RESULTS: In all, 767 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL who had a median age of 63 years were enrolled onto the MER and NCCTG studies. At a median follow-up of 60 months (range, 8 to 116 months), 299 patients had an event and 210 patients had died. Patients achieving EFS24 had an overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 1.18; P = .25). This result was confirmed in 820 patients from the GELA study and registry in Lyon (SMR, 1.09; P = .71). Simulation studies showed that EFS24 has comparable power to continuous EFS when evaluating clinical trials in DLBCL. CONCLUSION: Patients with DLBCL who achieve EFS24 have a subsequent overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population. EFS24 will be useful in patient counseling and should be considered as an end point for future studies of newly diagnosed DLBCL.

Comparison of two rapid tests for anti-phenolic glycolipid-I serology in Brazil and Nepal

The diagnosis of leprosy continues to be based on clinical symptoms and early diagnosis and treatment are critical to preventing disability and transmission. Sensitive and specific laboratory tests are not available for diagnosing leprosy. Despite the limited applicability of anti-phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I) serology for diagnosis, it has been suggested as an additional tool to classify leprosy patients (LPs) for treatment purposes. Two formats of rapid tests to detect anti-PGL-I antibodies [ML immunochromatography assay (ICA) and ML Flow] were compared in different groups, multibacillary patients, paucibacillary patients, household contacts and healthy controls in Brazil and Nepal. High ML Flow intra-test concordance was observed and low to moderate agreement between the results of ML ICA and ML Flow tests on the serum of LPs was observed. LPs were "seroclassified" according to the results of these tests and the seroclassification was compared to other currently used classification systems: the World Health Organization operational classification, the bacilloscopic index and the Ridley-Jopling classification. When analysing the usefulness of these tests in the operational classification of PB and MB leprosy for treatment and follow-up purposes, the ML Flow test was the best point-of-care test for subjects in Nepal and despite the need for sample dilution, the ML ICA test yielded better performance among Brazilian subjects. Our results identified possible ways to improve the performance of both tests.

Bilateral sequential nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy: a comparison of visual outcomes in fellow eyes using quantitative analysis of goldmann visual fields.

OBJECTIVE To better define the concordance of visual loss in patients with nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION). METHODS The medical records of 86 patients with bilateral sequential NAION were reviewed retrospectively, and visual function was assessed using visual acuity, Goldmann visual fields, color vision, and relative afferent papillary defect. A quantitative total visual field score and score per quadrant were analyzed for each eye using the numerical Goldmann visual field scoring method. RESULTS Outcome measures were visual acuity, visual field, color vision, and relative afferent papillary defect. A statistically significant correlation was found between fellow eyes for multiple parameters, including logMAR visual acuity (P = .01), global visual field (P < .001), superior visual field (P < .001), and inferior visual field (P < .001). The mean deviation of total (P < .001) and pattern (P < .001) deviation analyses was significantly less between fellow eyes than between first and second eyes of different patients. CONCLUSIONS Visual function between fellow eyes showed a fair to moderate correlation that was statistically significant. The pattern of vision loss was also more similar in fellow eyes than between eyes of different patients. These results may help allow better prediction of visual outcome for the second eye in patients with NAION.

Nuestra experiencia clínica en los rescates de PTR con el sistema Legión

We carried out a descriptive, retrospective study with a sample side of 121 patients with Legión® prosthesis replacement in our Vírgen del Rocío hospital area, in the city of Seville, from May of 2008 until March of 2011. This study included epidemiological data as well as technical information about the process performed, including post-operative pain, mobility and functional results using a functional assessment scale and series of radiological studies. Average follow-up was 19 months, with a mean age of 71 years and 87% women. We obtained an average of 20.41º for articular balance obtained, correction of prior deformities by restoring the tibia-femoral axis to the anatomic e balance articular angle; we resolved bone loss prior to replacement and carried out an adequate balance of the inter-lineal joint. 66% of the patients continued with no post-operative pain, with the other 33% reporting slight to moderate pain. With regards to pain at the point of the stem, we have found no significant relationship with the incidence angle of the stem on the cortical or with the type of cement. We observed a 74% rate of intervention without complications, with complications being rupture of the patellar tendon in one patient, one case of peri-prosthesis fracture, two iatrogenic avulsion fractures of the anterior tibial tuberosity and seven infections (4 were diagnosed previously).

Relevance of cohort studies for the study of transplant infectious diseases.

The debate on the merits of observational studies as compared with randomized trials is ongoing. We will briefly touch on this subject, and demonstrate the role of cohort studies for the description of infectious disease patterns after transplantation. The potential benefits of cohort studies for the clinical management of patients outside of the expected gain in epidemiological knowledge are reviewed. The newly established Swiss Transplantation Cohort Study and in particular the part focusing on infectious diseases will serve as an illustration. A neglected area of research is the indirect value of large, multicenter cohort studies. These benefits can range from a deepened collaboration to the development of common definitions and guidelines. Unfortunately, very few data exist on the role of such indirect effects on improving quality of patient management. This review postulates an important role for cohort studies, which should not be viewed as inferior but complementary to established research tools, in particular randomized trials. Randomized trials remain the least bias-prone method to establish knowledge regarding the significance of diagnostic or therapeutic measures. Cohort studies have the power to reflect a real-world situation and to pinpoint areas of knowledge as well as of uncertainty. Prerequisite is a prospective design requiring a set of inclusive data coupled with the meticulous insistence on data retrieval and quality.

Lifetime alcohol use and overall and cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study.

OBJECTIVES To investigate the role of factors that modulate the association between alcohol and mortality, and to provide estimates of absolute risk of death. DESIGN The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC). SETTING 23 centres in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS 380 395 men and women, free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack or stroke at enrolment, followed up for 12.6 years on average. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES 20 453 fatal events, of which 2053 alcohol-related cancers (ARC, including cancers of upper aerodigestive tract, liver, colorectal and female breast), 4187 cardiovascular diseases/coronary heart disease (CVD/CHD), 856 violent deaths and injuries. Lifetime alcohol use was assessed at recruitment. RESULTS HRs comparing extreme drinkers (≥30 g/day in women and ≥60 g/day in men) to moderate drinkers (0.1-4.9 g/day) were 1.27 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.43) in women and 1.53 (1.39 to 1.68) in men. Strong associations were observed for ARC mortality, in men particularly, and for violent deaths and injuries, in men only. No associations were observed for CVD/CHD mortality among drinkers, whereby HRs were higher in never compared to moderate drinkers. Overall mortality seemed to be more strongly related to beer than wine use, particularly in men. The 10-year risks of overall death for women aged 60 years, drinking more than 30 g/day was 5% and 7%, for never and current smokers, respectively. Corresponding figures in men consuming more than 60 g/day were 11% and 18%, in never and current smokers, respectively. In competing risks analyses, mortality due to CVD/CHD was more pronounced than ARC in men, while CVD/CHD and ARC mortality were of similar magnitude in women. CONCLUSIONS In this large European cohort, alcohol use was positively associated with overall mortality, ARC and violent death and injuries, but marginally to CVD/CHD. Absolute risks of death observed in EPIC suggest that alcohol is an important determinant of total mortality.

MDM2 and CDK4 immunohistochemistry is a valuable tool in the differential diagnosis of low-grade osteosarcomas and other primary fibro-osseous lesions of the bone.

Low-grade osteosarcoma is a rare malignancy that may be subdivided into two main subgroups on the basis of location in relation to the bone cortex, that is, parosteal osteosarcoma and low-grade central osteosarcoma. Their histological appearance is quite similar and characterized by spindle cell stroma with low-to-moderate cellularity and well-differentiated anastomosing bone trabeculae. Low-grade osteosarcomas have a simple genetic profile with supernumerary ring chromosomes comprising amplification of chromosome 12q13-15, including the cyclin-dependent kinase 4 (CDK4) and murine double-minute type 2 (MDM2) gene region. Low-grade osteosarcoma can be confused with fibrous and fibro-osseous lesions such as fibromatosis and fibrous dysplasia on radiological and histological findings. We investigated MDM2-CDK4 immunohistochemical expression in a series of 72 low-grade osteosarcomas and 107 fibrous or fibro-osseous lesions of the bone or paraosseous soft tissue. The MDM2-CDK4 amplification status of low-grade osteosarcoma was also evaluated by comparative genomic hybridization array in 18 cases, and the MDM2 amplification status was evaluated by fluorescence in situ hybridization or quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction in 31 cases of benign fibrous and fibro-osseous lesions. MDM2-CDK4 immunostaining and MDM2 amplification by fluorescence in situ hybridization or quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction were investigated in a control group of 23 cases of primary high-grade bone sarcoma, including 20 conventional high-grade osteosarcomas, two pleomorphic spindle cell sarcomas/malignant fibrous histiocytomas and one leiomyosarcoma. The results showed that MDM2 and/or CDK4 immunoreactivity was present in 89% of low-grade osteosarcoma specimens. All benign fibrous and fibro-osseous lesions and the tumors of the control group were negative for MDM2 and CDK4. These results were consistent with the MDM2 and CDK4 amplification results. In conclusion, immunohistochemical expression of MDM2 and CDK4 is specific and provides sensitive markers for the diagnosis of low-grade osteosarcomas, helping to differentiate them from benign fibrous and fibro-osseous lesions, particularly in cases with atypical radio-clinical presentation and/or limited biopsy samples.