Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

On chaos, transient chaos and ghosts in single populations models with allee effects

Density-dependent effects, both positive or negative, can have an important impact on the population dynamics of species by modifying their population per-capita growth rates. An important type of such density-dependent factors is given by the so-called Allee effects, widely studied in theoretical and field population biology. In this study, we analyze two discrete single population models with overcompensating density-dependence and Allee effects due to predator saturation and mating limitation using symbolic dynamics theory. We focus on the scenarios of persistence and bistability, in which the species dynamics can be chaotic. For the chaotic regimes, we compute the topological entropy as well as the Lyapunov exponent under ecological key parameters and different initial conditions. We also provide co-dimension two bifurcation diagrams for both systems computing the periods of the orbits, also characterizing the period-ordering routes toward the boundary crisis responsible for species extinction via transient chaos. Our results show that the topological entropy increases as we approach to the parametric regions involving transient chaos, being maximum when the full shift R(L)(infinity) occurs, and the system enters into the essential extinction regime. Finally, we characterize analytically, using a complex variable approach, and numerically the inverse square-root scaling law arising in the vicinity of a saddle-node bifurcation responsible for the extinction scenario in the two studied models. The results are discussed in the context of species fragility under differential Allee effects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Problèmes posés par la population sporo-pollinique d'un niveau à plantes de la série de Buarcos (Portugal)

L'analyse pollinique des sédiments argileux, riches en macrorestes de végétaux, du "Belasien» (Crétacé inférieur) de Buarcos a permis reconnaître la présence d'une riche microflore. On a, nottament, reconnu la présence de: Concavisporites punctatus, Auritulinosporites complexis, Chomotriletes sp., Trilobosporites cf. bernissartensis, Apiculatisporites vulgaris, Cicatricosisporites sp. 1, Cicatricosisporites sp. 2. Cicatricosisporites sp. 3, Cicatricosisporites sp. 4, Cicatricosisporites sp. 5, Cicatricosisporites sp. 6. Costatoperforosporites fistulosus, Ceratosporites sp. l, C. cf. equalis, Ischyosporites teixeirae n. sp., Liburnisporites sp. AequitriraditeS cf. spinulosus, Cedripites lusitanicus, Clavatipollenites cf. hughesi. Après discution de la stratigraphie des diffèrentes espèces on sugère une âge barremo-aptien pour cette association malgré la présence de l'ensemble Apiculalisporites vulgaris-Classopollls major plutôt d'âge Aptien.

Dynamics of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in a rural area of Argentina: III. Persistence of T. cruzi parasitemia among canine reservoirs in a two-year follow-up

A new cross-sectional survey of household- associated mongrel dogs as well as follow-up of previously parasitemic individuals was carried out in 1984 toy means of xenodiagnosis and serologic techniques to get a deeper insight into the relationship of T. cruzi parasitemia and age among canine hosts in a rural area of Argentina. Persistence of detectable parasitemia was age-independent, or at most, loosely related to age, confirming the pattern observed in 1982. Similarly no significant age-decreasing effect was recorded among seropositive dogs in: a) the probability of detecting parasites in a 2-year follow-up; b) their intensity of infectiousness (=infective force) for T. infestans 3rd-4th instar nymphs, as measured by the percentage of infected bugs observed in each dog xenodiagnosis. Moreover, not only was the infective force of seropositive dogs for bugs approximately constant through lifetime, but it was significantly higher than the one recorded for children in the present survey, and for human people by other researchers. Therefore, and since T. infestans field populations show high feeding frequencies on dogs, the latter are expected to make the greatest contribution to the pool of infected vectors in the rural household of Argentina. This characteristic should be sufficient to involve canine reservoirs definitely as a risk factor for human people residing in the same house. The increased severity of parasitemia observed among dogs in this survey may be related to the acute undernutrition characteristic of canine populations of poor rural areas in our country, which is expected to affect the ability of the host to manage the infection.

Splenomegaly in relation to Schistosoma mansoni egg counts: a population based study

A cross: sectional survey on schistosomiasis was done in Comercinho (Minas Gerais State, Brazil), a town with 1474 inhabitants. Stool (Kato-Katz method) and physical examinations were done on 90% of the population and on 84% of the individuals over 2 years of age, respectively. The ecological and individual (case-control) analysis were used to investigate the relation between splenomegaly and S. mansoni egg counts in different age groups. In the ecological analysis there was a clearly correspondence between higher geometric mean of eggs and higher percentage of splenomegaly in the age groups 5-9 and 10-12 years. In the individual analysis it was found that only in the youngest individuals (5-8 or 5-9 years old) the splenomegaly was related with higher mean egg counts in the feces, having been a tendency to the decrease of excretion of eggs in patients with splenomegaly as the age increased. These results strongly suggest that the ecological data are' better indicator of the severity of schistosomiasis in endemic areas, as the decrease of the egg excretion in patients with splenomegaly may be a confounding variable for the individual analysis.

Prevalence of antibody to hepatitis B virus in an urban population of northeast Brazil

A sample of 1,288 inhabitants of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, were submitted to the determination of anti-HBs using radioimmunoassay procedure, and analysed according to age, sex and income. Overall prevalence of anti-HBs was 11,8%. ranging from 6,7% among children aged less than three years old to 26,1% among those aged 30 years and older. Males presented prevalence of anti-HBs similar to female individuals, and those with a higher income showed frequencies of anti-HBs greater than those with a lower income level. The following conclusions were drawn: The high prevalence of anti-HBs observed among children suggests early contact with hepatitis B virus, possibly due to vertical transmission and intrafamiliar dissemination of the disease; the frequency of anti-HBs increases with age; the lower prevalence of anti-HBs among those with low income suggests that this group may present higher prevalence of carriers of the hepatitis B virus surface antigen.

Influence of computed tomography attenuation correction in myocardial perfusion imaging in obese population

Marked regional variations in myocardial activity that are not related to myocardial perfusion defects.Verify the influence of CT-AC inMPI results in patients with BMI between 30 and 35 and higher than 30 for male and female population.

Schistosomiasis mansoni in the municipality of Pedro de Toledo (São Paulo, Brazil) where the Biomphalaria tenagophila is the snail host: I - Prevalence in human population (

Due to the scarce information about the epidemiological features of schistosomiasis in which the vector is Biomphalaria tenagophila, an investigation was carried in Pedro de Toledo in 1980 where such peculiarity is observed. Stool examinations (Kato-Katz method) were performed in 4,741 individuals (22.8% positive to Schistosoma mansoni eggs) of this 583 had previously received chemoterapy and 4,158 remainders, untreated. The schistosomiasis prevalence in those two groups where respectively 31.7% and 21.6%. Epidemiological investigation showed that 83.6% were autochthonous cases from the studied area: the autochthonous prevalence rate, and the intensity of infection in the untreated autochthonous cases were higher in males than in females; the intensity in the latter untreated group was low, 58.5 eggs/g feces (geometric mean). Moreover, according to the age groups the intensity of infections correlated well (r s = 0.745) with the prevalence rates. Schistosomiasis was verified to occur mostly during the leisure time and by the use of water streams for housework in rural zone. Only 0.4% out of 1,137 snails was positive for S. mansoni cercariae, apparently unchanged from the 1978 study when the human prevalence was 12.0%. The studied area presented differences and similarities in relation to the other Brazilian areas were the main intermediate host is B. glabrata.

A serological investigation of rotavirus infections in a shanty town population in Rio de Janeiro

The presence of antibodies against rotavirus was investigated by enzyme immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in two distinct groups of children living in a shanty town in Rio de Janeiro. One hundred and thirty six plasma samples were randomly collected from children of 0 to 33 months (first group) and 255 serum samples were collected from other 85 children at ages of 2, 6 and 9 months (second group). A high percentage of antibodies were found in the newborn children and this rate decreased progressively until the age of 11 months, after which it increased again. At the age of 7 months, geometric mean antibody titers increased indicating that infection had occurred.

Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay: determination of anti-adenovirus antibodies in an infant population

In order to define an accurate assay for anti-adenovirus antibody detection, a recently developed ELISA was compared with IFA and CF. On 58 sera, the ELISA was more sensitive than both CF and IFA, which showed relative sensitivities of 63% and 94%, respectively. It was not possible to determine the exact specificity of the tests because of the lack of a gold standard. Furthermore, the ELISA was used to define the prevalence of adenovirus antibodies in 116 infants between 1 and 24 months old (mean 7.28). The data showed that maternal antibodies waned by the age of 5 to 6 months and that more than 80% of the children had been infected by adenoviruses by the age of 10 months.

B and Delta hepatitis virus infection in a population of West Africa

Among the 424 serum samples examined, the prevalence of hepatitis virus infection turned out to be 89.6%, with 15.6% of HBsAg positivity. Some of the samples belonged to an afferent population and some other to workers of a West Africa rural hospital (Pop. Rep. of Benin). 27.3% of the positive subjects presented active replication of the virus, shown by the presence of HBeAg. Among the HBcAb positive subjects the anti-delta antibodies showed a positivity frequency of 19.7%. HBsAg presence in 15% of pregnant women suggested the importance of HBV mother-foetal transmission in the district. The examined results can be compared with those obtained in other African areas, with similar socio-economic conditions.

CardioBengo study protocol: a population based cardiovascular longitudinal study in Bengo Province, Angola

Background: Cardiovascular diseases and other non-communicable diseases are major causes of morbidity and mortality, responsible for 38 million deaths in 2012, 75 % occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Most of these countries are facing a period of epidemiological transition, being confronted with an increased burden of non-communicable diseases, which challenge health systems mainly designed to deal with infectious diseases. With the adoption of the World Health Organization “Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of non-communicable diseases, 2013–2020”, the national dimension of risk factors for non-communicable diseases must be reported on a regular basis. Angola has no national surveillance system for non-communicable diseases, and periodic population-based studies can help to overcome this lack of information. CardioBengo will collect information on risk factors, awareness rates and prevalence of symptoms relevant to cardiovascular diseases, to assist decision makers in the implementation of prevention and treatment policies and programs. Methods: CardioBengo is designed as a research structure that comprises a cross-sectional component, providing baseline information and the assembling of a cohort to follow-up the dynamics of cardiovascular diseases risk factors in the catchment area of the Dande Health and Demographic Surveillance System of the Health Research Centre of Angola, in Bengo Province, Angola. The World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance questionnaires and procedures will be used to collect information on a representative sex-age stratified sample, aged between 15 and 64 years old. Discussion: CardioBengo will recruit the first population cohort in Angola designed to evaluate cardiovascular diseases risk factors. Using the structures in place of the Dande Health and Demographic Surveillance System and a reliable methodology that generates comparable results with other regions and countries, this study will constitute a useful tool for the surveillance of cardiovascular diseases. Like all longitudinal studies, a strong concern exists regarding dropouts, but strategies like regular visits to selected participants and a strong community involvement are in place to minimize these occurrences.

The frequency of blood-born viral infections in a population of multitransfused Brazilian patients

The frequency of viral markers for hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) and human T-lymphotropic virus-1 (HTLV-1) was evaluated in 32 Brazilian ß-thalassemia multitransfused patients. Additionaly the serum concentrations of ferritin and alanine aspartate transaminase (ALAT) were determined. The results show a high prevalence of markers of infection by HBV (25.0%) and HCV (46.8%) and a low prevalence of markers for HIV-1 and HTLV-1. No correlations were demonstrated between the presence of the hepatitis markers and the number of units transfused or the serum concentrations of ferritin and ALAT.

The role of functional polymorphisms in immune response genes as biomarkers of BCG Immunotherapy outcome in bladder cancer: Establishment of a predictive profile in a Southern Europe population

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive value of genetic polymorphisms in the context of BCG immunotherapy outcome and create a predictive profile that may allow discriminating the risk of recurrence. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In a dataset of 204 patients treated with BCG, we evaluate 42 genetic polymorphisms in 38 genes involved in the BCG mechanism of action, using Sequenom MassARRAY technology. Stepwise multivariate Cox Regression was used for data mining. RESULTS: In agreement with previous studies we observed that gender, age, tumor multiplicity and treatment scheme were associated with BCG failure. Using stepwise multivariate Cox Regression analysis we propose the first predictive profile of BCG immunotherapy outcome and a risk score based on polymorphisms in immune system molecules (SNPs in TNFA-1031T/C (rs1799964), IL2RA rs2104286 T/C, IL17A-197G/A (rs2275913), IL17RA-809A/G (rs4819554), IL18R1 rs3771171 T/C, ICAM1 K469E (rs5498), FASL-844T/C (rs763110) and TRAILR1-397T/G (rs79037040) in association with clinicopathological variables. This risk score allows the categorization of patients into risk groups: patients within the Low Risk group have a 90% chance of successful treatment, whereas patients in the High Risk group present 75% chance of recurrence after BCG treatment. CONCLUSION: We have established the first predictive score of BCG immunotherapy outcome combining clinicopathological characteristics and a panel of genetic polymorphisms. Further studies using an independent cohort are warranted. Moreover, the inclusion of other biomarkers may help to improve the proposed model.

Acute respiratory infections in children from a deprived urban population from Uruguay

To obtain base line data on incidence, duration, clinical characteristics and etiology of acute respiratory infections (ARI), 276 children from deprived families living in Montevideo were followed during 32 months. The target population was divided into two groups for the analysis of the results: children aged less than 12 months and those older than this age. During the follow-up period 1.056 ARI episodes were recorded. ARI incidence was 5.2 per child/year. It was 87% higher in infants than in the older group, as was the duration of the episodes. Most of the diseases were mild. Tachypnea and retractions were seldom observed, but 12 children were refered to the hospital, and 2 infants died. Viral etiology was identified in 15.3% of the episodes. RSV was the predominant agent producing annual outbreaks. Moderate to heavy colonization of the upper respiratory tract by Streptococcus pneumoniae (32.3%) and Hemophilus sp. (18.9%) was recorded during ARI episodes. This community-based study furnish original data on ARI in Uruguay. It enabled to asses the impact of these infections on childhood.