A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Biotic potential and reproductive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the laboratory

Biotic potential and reprodutcive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the laboratory: This study aimed to evaluate the biotic potential and reproductive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll, 1782) under controlled conditions (25 ± 1ºC, 70 ± 10% RH and 14 hour photophase). The longevity, pre-, post- and oviposition periods, fecundity and fertility of 15 couples was evaluated. The longevity of females (10.80 days) was not significantly higher than those of males (9.27 days). The mean durations of the pre, post and oviposition periods were 2.067, 0.600 and 8.133 days, respectively. The mean fecundity per female was 1,398 eggs and the mean fertility was 1,367.50 larvae. On average, females copulated 1.133 times. A strong positive correlation was observed between the number of mating and fecundity (r = 0.881, P <0.001). However a strong negative correlation was observed between the number of copulations and the duration of the pre-oviposition period (r = -0.826, P = 0.002) and longevity (r = -0.823, P = 0.001). The biotic potential of S. eridania was estimated at 1.894 x 10(25) individuals/female/year. The net reproductive rate (Ro) was 560.531 times per generation and the mean generation time (T) was 35.807 days. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was 0.177, with a finite rate of increase (l) of 1.193, per week

Dosimetric aspects of a national survey of diagnostic and interventional radiology in Switzerland.

The effective dose delivered to the patient was determined, by modeling, for 257 types of examinations covering the different modalities of diagnostic and interventional radiology. The basic operational dosimetric quantities considered were obtained from the parameters of the examinations on the basis of dosimetric models. These models required a precise characterization of each examination. The operational dosimetric quantities were converted into doses to organs and effective doses using appropriate conversion factors. The determination of the collective effective dose to the Swiss population requires a number of corrections to account for the variability of several parameters: sensitivity of the detection system, age, gender, and build of the patient. The use of various dosimetric models is illustrated in this paper for a limited number of examination types covering the different radiological modalities, for which the established typical effective doses are given. With regard to individual doses, the study indicated that the average effective doses per type of examination can be classified into three levels: (a) the weakly irradiating examinations (less than 0.1 mSv), which represent 78% of the examinations and 4% of the collective dose, (b) the moderately irradiating examinations (between 0.1 mSv and 10 mSv), which represent 21% of the examinations and 72% of the collective dose, (c) the strongly irradiating examinations (more than 10 mSv), which represent 1% of the examinations and 24% of the collective dose.

How useful is satellite positioning system (GPS) to track gait parameters? A review.

Over the last century, numerous techniques have been developed to analyze the movement of humans while walking and running. The combined use of kinematics and kinetics methods, mainly based on high speed video analysis and forceplate, have permitted a comprehensive description of locomotion process in terms of energetics and biomechanics. While the different phases of a single gait cycle are well understood, there is an increasing interest to know how the neuro-motor system controls gait form stride to stride. Indeed, it was observed that neurodegenerative diseases and aging could impact gait stability and gait parameters steadiness. From both clinical and fundamental research perspectives, there is therefore a need to develop techniques to accurately track gait parameters stride-by-stride over a long period with minimal constraints to patients. In this context, high accuracy satellite positioning can provide an alternative tool to monitor outdoor walking. Indeed, the high-end GPS receivers provide centimeter accuracy positioning with 5-20 Hz sampling rate: this allows the stride-by-stride assessment of a number of basic gait parameters--such as walking speed, step length and step frequency--that can be tracked over several thousand consecutive strides in free-living conditions. Furthermore, long-range correlations and fractal-like pattern was observed in those time series. As compared to other classical methods, GPS seems a promising technology in the field of gait variability analysis. However, relative high complexity and expensiveness--combined with a usability which requires further improvement--remain obstacles to the full development of the GPS technology in human applications.

Sedation and analgesia for colonoscopy: patient tolerance, pain, and cardiorespiratory parameters.

BACKGROUND: Colonoscopy is generally performed with the patient sedated and receiving analgesics. However, the benefit of the most often used combination of intravenous midazolam and pethidine on patient tolerance and pain and its cardiorespiratory risk have not been fully defined. METHODS: In this double-blind prospective study, 150 outpatients undergoing routine colonoscopy were randomly assigned to receive either (1) low-dose midazolam (35 micrograms/kg) and pethidine (700 micrograms/kg in 48 patients, 500 micrograms/kg in 102 patients), (2) midazolam and placebo pethidine, or (3) pethidine and placebo midazolam. RESULTS: Tolerance (visual analog scale, 0 to 100 points: 0 = excellent; 100 = unbearable) did not improve significantly more in group 1 compared with group 2 (7 points; 95% confidence interval [-2-17]) and group 3 (2 points; 95% confidence interval [-7-12]). Similarly, pain was not significantly improved in group 1 as compared with the other groups. Male gender (p < 0.001) and shorter duration of the procedure (p = 0.004), but not amnesia, were associated with better patient tolerance and less pain. Patient satisfaction was similar in all groups. Oxygen desaturation and hypotension occurred in 33% and 11%, respectively, with a similar frequency in all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the combination of low-dose midazolam and pethidine does not improve patient tolerance and lessen pain during colonoscopy as compared with either drug given alone. When applying low-dose midazolam, oxygen desaturation and hypotension do not occur more often after combined use of both drugs. For the individual patient, sedation and analgesia should be based on the endoscopist's clinical judgement.

Obtenció d'estruvita a partir de la fracció líquida digerida de purins de vaca

Actualment a Catalunya existeixen zones amb importants limitacions per l’aplicació de purins al sòl, pel que és imprescindible trobar alternatives de gestió i tractament que permetin l’aprofitament adequat dels recursos continguts a les dejeccions ramaderes sense afectar el medi. La digestió anaeròbia és una de les tècniques utilitzades en el tractament de les dejeccions ramaderes. L’efluent líquid que s’obté d’aquest tractament no modifica el contingut de nitrogen i fòsfor i per tant ha de ser gestionat correctament. L’objectiu general d’aquest projecte és avaluar la precipitació d’estruvita (sal de magnesi, amoni i fosfat) com una alternativa de gestió de l’efluent líquid d’una planta de digestió anaeròbia i compostatge que tracta dejeccions ramaderes conjuntament amb altres residus orgànics. S’han avaluat els efectes dels diferents paràmetres operacionals en la formació d’estruvita (pH, temperatura, velocitat d’agitació, alcalinitat), mitjançant assaigs en discontinu amb solució sintètica. A continuació s’ha procedit a obtenir estruvita a partir de la fracció líquida digerida de purí (FLD), en assaigs en discontinu per estudiar l’efecte del contingut de matèria orgànica i sòlids Totals (ST), així com el contingut en fosfats i el pH de reacció. Finalment, s’han optimitzat els paràmetres de procés en continu, mitjançant la posada en marxa d’un reactor a escala de laboratori i estudi de l’efecte de la velocitat d’agitació i de la introducció del stripping de CO2, tant amb solució sintètica com amb la fracció líquida digerida del purí. Dels resultats obtinguts es pot concloure que els factors que tenen una major influència en el procés d’obtenció d’estruvita són el pH (el pH òptim es situa al voltant de 9), i la presència de matèria orgànica i sòlids ens suspensió, que interfereix de forma quantitativa i qualitativa en la formació de l’estruvita. En el procés en continu s’ha aconseguit reduccions d’un 84% i 98% d’amoni i fòsfor respectivament, obtenintse estruvita que pot ser utilitzada com a fertilitzant d’alliberació lenta. Es pot concloure que la precipitació d’estruvita és una bona alternativa per millorar la gestió de les dejeccions ramaderes alhora que permet recuperar nutrients i tancar cicles. La combinació amb un tractament previ que elimini la matèria orgànica, com podria ser la digestió anaeròbia, i una separació de fases, per eliminar els sòlids en suspensió, es presenta com una configuració amb molts avantatges.

Diagnostic value of vestibulo-ocular reflex parameters in the detection and characterization of labyrinthine lesions.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the power of various parameters of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in detecting unilateral peripheral vestibular dysfunction and in characterizing certain inner ear pathologies. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study of consecutive ambulatory patients presenting with acute onset of peripheral vertigo and spontaneous nystagmus. SETTING: Tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: Seventy-four patients (40 females, 34 males) and 22 normal subjects (11 females, 11 males) were included in the study. Patients were classified in three main diagnoses: vestibular neuritis: 40; viral labyrinthitis: 22; Meniere's disease: 12. METHODS: The VOR function was evaluated by standard caloric and impulse rotary tests (velocity step). A mathematical model of vestibular function was used to characterize the VOR response to rotational stimulation. The diagnostic value of the different VOR parameters was assessed by uni- and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, caloric asymmetry emerged as the most powerful VOR parameter in identifying unilateral vestibular deficit, with a boundary limit set at 20%. In multivariable analysis, the combination of caloric asymmetry and rotational time constant asymmetry significantly improved the discriminatory power over caloric alone (p&lt;0.0001) and produced a detection score with a correct classification of 92.4%. In discriminating labyrinthine diseases, different combinations of the VOR parameters were obtained for each diagnosis (p&lt;0.003) supporting that the VOR characteristics differ between the three inner ear disorders. However, the clinical usefulness of these characteristics in separating the pathologies was limited. CONCLUSION: We propose a powerful logistic model combining the indices of caloric and time constant asymmetries to detect a peripheral vestibular loss, with an accuracy of 92.4%. Based on vestibular data only, the discrimination between the different inner ear diseases is statistically possible, which supports different pathophysiologic changes in labyrinthine pathologies.

A type stars - physical parameters from UVBY and H-beta photometry

uvby H-beta photometry has been obtained for a sample of 93 selected main sequence A stars. The purpose was to determine accurate effective temperatures, surface gravities, and absolute magnitudes for an individual determination of ages and parallaxes, which have to be included in a more extensive work analyzing the kinematic properties of A V stars. Several calibrations and methods to determine the above mentioned parameters have been reviewed, allowing the design of a new algorithm for their determination. The results obtained using this procedure were tested in a previous paper using uvby H-beta data from the Hauck and Mermilliod catalogue, and comparing the rusulting temperatures, surface gravities and absolute magnitudes with empirical determinations of these parameters.

Analysis of warm season thunderstorms using an object-oriented tracking method based on radar and total lightning data

Monitoring thunderstorms activity is an essential part of operational weather surveillance given their potential hazards, including lightning, hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds or even tornadoes. This study has two main objectives: firstly, the description of a methodology, based on radar and total lightning data to characterise thunderstorms in real-time; secondly, the application of this methodology to 66 thunderstorms that affected Catalonia (NE Spain) in the summer of 2006. An object-oriented tracking procedure is employed, where different observation data types generate four different types of objects (radar 1-km CAPPI reflectivity composites, radar reflectivity volumetric data, cloud-to-ground lightning data and intra-cloud lightning data). In the framework proposed, these objects are the building blocks of a higher level object, the thunderstorm. The methodology is demonstrated with a dataset of thunderstorms whose main characteristics, along the complete life cycle of the convective structures (development, maturity and dissipation), are described statistically. The development and dissipation stages present similar durations in most cases examined. On the contrary, the duration of the maturity phase is much more variable and related to the thunderstorm intensity, defined here in terms of lightning flash rate. Most of the activity of IC and CG flashes is registered in the maturity stage. In the development stage little CG flashes are observed (2% to 5%), while for the dissipation phase is possible to observe a few more CG flashes (10% to 15%). Additionally, a selection of thunderstorms is used to examine general life cycle patterns, obtained from the analysis of normalized (with respect to thunderstorm total duration and maximum value of variables considered) thunderstorm parameters. Among other findings, the study indicates that the normalized duration of the three stages of thunderstorm life cycle is similar in most thunderstorms, with the longest duration corresponding to the maturity stage (approximately 80% of the total time).

Estimates of genetic parameters of trotting performance traits for repeated annual records

Selostus: Ravihevosten jalostettavia ominaisuuksia kuvaavien kilpailumittojen perinnölliset tunnusluvut

Genetic parameters for growth traits in pigs estimated using third degree polynomial functions

Selostus: Sian kasvuominaisuuksien perinnölliset tunnusluvut arvioituna kolmannen asteen polynomifunktion avulla

Formule sanguine: intérêt des nouveaux paramètres [Complete blood counts: new parameters].

Performing a complete blood count analysis is a daily routine necessary for a good care of patients. Nowadays, modern blood analyzers provide on top of classical blood values, several additional parameters. In this paper, using short case presentations, we discuss how to interpret these results and integrate them in the clinical context.