On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms

The main topic of this thesis is confounding in linear regression models. It arises when a relationship between an observed process, the covariate, and an outcome process, the response, is influenced by an unmeasured process, the confounder, associated with both. Consequently, the estimators for the regression coefficients of the measured covariates might be severely biased, less efficient and characterized by misleading interpretations. Confounding is an issue when the primary target of the work is the estimation of the regression parameters. The central point of the dissertation is the evaluation of the sampling properties of parameter estimators. This work aims to extend the spatial confounding framework to general structured settings and to understand the behaviour of confounding as a function of the data generating process structure parameters in several scenarios focusing on the joint covariate-confounder structure. In line with the spatial statistics literature, our purpose is to quantify the sampling properties of the regression coefficient estimators and, in turn, to identify the most prominent quantities depending on the generative mechanism impacting confounding. Once the sampling properties of the estimator conditionally on the covariate process are derived as ratios of dependent quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables, we provide an analytic expression of the marginal sampling properties of the estimator using Carlson’s R function. Additionally, we propose a representative quantity for the magnitude of confounding as a proxy of the bias, its first-order Laplace approximation. To conclude, we work under several frameworks considering spatial and temporal data with specific assumptions regarding the covariance and cross-covariance functions used to generate the processes involved. This study allows us to claim that the variability of the confounder-covariate interaction and of the covariate plays the most relevant role in determining the principal marker of the magnitude of confounding.

Adapting The Sniffin' Sticks Olfactory Test To Diagnose Parkinson's Disease In Estonia.

The aim of the study was to develop a culturally adapted translation of the 12-item smell identification test from Sniffin' Sticks (SS-12) for the Estonian population in order to help diagnose Parkinson's disease (PD). A standard translation of the SS-12 was created and 150 healthy Estonians were questioned about the smells used as response options in the test. Unfamiliar smells were replaced by culturally familiar options. The adapted SS-12 was applied to 70 controls in all age groups, and thereafter to 50 PD patients and 50 age- and sex-matched controls. 14 response options from 48 used in the SS-12 were replaced with familiar smells in an adapted version, in which the mean rate of correct response was 87% (range 73-99) compared to 83% with the literal translation (range 50-98). In PD patients, the average adapted SS-12 score (5.4/12) was significantly lower than in controls (average score 8.9/12), p < 0.0001. A multiple linear regression using the score in the SS-12 as the outcome measure showed that diagnosis and age independently influenced the result of the SS-12. A logistic regression using the SS-12 and age as covariates showed that the SS-12 (but not age) correctly classified 79.0% of subjects into the PD and control category, using a cut-off of <7 gave a sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 86% for the diagnosis of PD. The developed SS-12 cultural adaption is appropriate for testing olfaction in Estonia for the purpose of PD diagnosis.

Storage At Low Temperature Differentially Affects The Colour And Carotenoid Composition Of Two Cultivars Of Banana.

Different storage conditions can induce changes in the colour and carotenoid profiles and levels in some fruits. The goal of this work was to evaluate the influence of low temperature storage on the colour and carotenoid synthesis in two banana cultivars: Prata and Nanicão. For this purpose, the carotenoids from the banana pulp were determined by HPLC-DAD-MS/MS, and the colour of the banana skin was determined by a colorimeter method. Ten carotenoids were identified, of which the major carotenoids were all-trans-lutein, all-trans-α-carotene and all-trans-β-carotene in both cultivars. The effect of the low temperatures was subjected to linear regression analysis. In cv. Prata, all-trans-α-carotene and all-trans-β-carotene were significantly affected by low temperature (p<0.01), with negative estimated values (β coefficients) indicating that during cold storage conditions, the concentrations of these carotenoids tended to decrease. In cv. Nanicão, no carotenoid was significantly affected by cold storage (p>0.05). The accumulation of carotenoids in this group may be because the metabolic pathways using these carotenoids were affected by storage at low temperatures. The colour of the fruits was not negatively affected by the low temperatures (p>0.05).

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study.

To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity. Multicenter cross-sectional study. Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010. A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications. The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women. The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome. Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death). Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

Clinical Influence Of Different Intracanal Medications On Th1-type And Th2-type Cytokine Responses In Apical Periodontitis.

This clinical study assessed the influence of different intracanal medications on Th1-type and Th2-type cytokine responses in apical periodontitis and monitored the levels of bacteria from primarily infection during endodontic procedures. Thirty primarily infected teeth were randomly divided into 3 groups according to the medication selected: chlorhexidine (CHX), 2% CHX gel; Ca(OH)2/SSL, Ca(OH)2 + SSL; and Ca(OH)2/CHX, Ca(OH)2 + 2% CHX gel (all, n = 10). Bacterial sample was collected from root canals, and the interstitial fluid was sampled from lesions. Culture techniques were used to determine bacterial counts (colony-forming units/mL). Th1 (tumor necrosis factor-α, interferon-γ, and interleukin [IL]-2) and Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. All intracanal medication protocols were effective in reducing the bacterial load from root canals (all P < .05) and lowering the levels of Th1-type cytokines in apical lesions (all P < .05), with no differences between them (P > .05). Both Ca(OH)2 treatment protocols significantly increased the levels of Th2-type cytokines (P < .05), with no differences between them (P > .05). Thus, chlorhexidine medication showed the lowest effectiveness in increasing the levels of Th2-type cytokine. After treatment, regardless of the type of medication, the linear regression analysis indicated the down-regulation of Th2-type cytokines by Th1-type cytokines. All intracanal medication protocols were effective in reducing bacterial load and lowering the levels of Th1-type cytokines. Thus, the use of Ca(OH)2 medications contributed to the increase in the Th2-type cytokine response in apical periodontitis.

Patient education in glaucoma: what do patients know about glaucoma?

PURPOSE: To evaluate the knowledge glaucoma patients have about their disease and its treatment. METHODS: One hundred and eighty-three patients were interviewed at the Glaucoma Service of Wills Eye Hospital (Philadelphia, USA, Group 1) and 100 at the Glaucoma Service of University of Campinas (Campinas, Brazil, Group 2). An informal, relaxed atmosphere was created by the interviewer before asking a list of 18 open-ended questions. RESULTS: In Group 1, 44% of the 183 patients did not have an acceptable idea about what glaucoma is, 30% did not know the purpose of the medications they were taking, 47% were not aware of what was an average intraocular pressure, and 45% did not understand why visual fields were examined. In Group 2, 54% gave unsatisfactory answers to the question What is glaucoma?, 54% did not know the purpose of the medications they were taking, 80% were not aware of what was an average intraocular pressure, and 94% did not understand why visual fields were examined (p<0.001). Linear regression analysis demonstrated that level of education was positively correlated to knowledge about glaucoma in both groups (r=0.65, p=0.001). CONCLUSION: This study showed that patients' knowledge about glaucoma varies greatly, and that in an urban, American setting, around one third of the patients have minimal understanding, whereas in an urban setting in Brazil around two thirds of patients were lacking basic information about glaucoma. Innovative and effective methods are needed to correct this situation.

Flicker perimetry in healthy subjects: influence of age and gender, learning effect and short-term fluctuation

PURPOSE: To determine the mean critical fusion frequency and the short-term fluctuation, to analyze the influence of age, gender, and the learning effect in healthy subjects undergoing flicker perimetry. METHODS: Study 1 - 95 healthy subjects underwent flicker perimetry once in one eye. Mean critical fusion frequency values were compared between genders, and the influence of age was evaluated using linear regression analysis. Study 2 - 20 healthy subjects underwent flicker perimetry 5 times in one eye. The first 3 sessions were separated by an interval of 1 to 30 days, whereas the last 3 sessions were performed within the same day. The first 3 sessions were used to investigate the presence of a learning effect, whereas the last 3 tests were used to calculate short-term fluctuation. RESULTS: Study 1 - Linear regression analysis demonstrated that mean global, foveal, central, and critical fusion frequency per quadrant significantly decreased with age (p<0.05).There were no statistically significant differences in mean critical fusion frequency values between males and females (p>0.05), with the exception of the central area and inferonasal quadrant (p=0.049 and p=0.011, respectively), where the values were lower in females. Study 2 - Mean global (p=0.014), central (p=0.008), and peripheral (p=0.03) critical fusion frequency were significantly lower in the first session compared to the second and third sessions. The mean global short-term fluctuation was 5.06±1.13 Hz, the mean interindividual and intraindividual variabilities were 11.2±2.8% and 6.4±1.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that, in healthy subjects, critical fusion frequency decreases with age, that flicker perimetry is associated with a learning effect, and that a moderately high short-term fluctuation is expected.

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study

Objective To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity.Design Multicenter cross-sectional study.Setting Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010.Population A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications.Methods The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women.Main outcome measures The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome.Results Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death).Conclusion Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

Fluoride release profile of a nanofilled resin-modified glass ionomer cement

The present study aimed to compare the fluoride (F-) release pattern of a nanofilled resin-modified glass ionomer cement (GIC) (Ketac N100 - KN) with available GICs used in dental practice (resin-modified GIC - Vitremer - V; conventional GIC - Ketac Molar - KM) and a nanofilled resin composite (Filtek Supreme - RC). Discs of each material (n=6) were placed into 4 mL of deionized water in sealed polyethylene vials and shaken, for 15 days. F- release (μg F-/cm²) was measured each day using a fluoride-ion specific electrode. Cumulative F- release means were statistically analyzed by linear regression analysis. In order to analyze the differences among materials and the influence of time in the daily F- release, 2-way ANOVA test was performed (α=0.05). The linear fits between the cumulative F- release profiles of RC and KM and time were weak. KN and V presented a strong relationship between cumulative F- release and time. There were significant differences between the daily F- release overtime up to the third day only for GICs materials. The daily F- release means for RC were similar overtime. The results indicate that the F- release profile of the nanofilled resin-modified GIC is comparable to the resin-modified GIC.

Allometric models for estimating the phytomass of a secondary Atlantic Forest area of southeastern Brazil

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate equations to estimate the aboveground phytomass of a 30 years old plot of Atlantic Forest. In two plots of 100 m², a total of 82 trees were cut down at ground level. For each tree, height and diameter were measured. Leaves and woody material were separated in order to determine their fresh weights in field conditions. Samples of each fraction were oven dried at 80 °C to constant weight to determine their dry weight. Tree data were divided into two random samples. One sample was used for the development of the regression equations, and the other for validation. The models were developed using single linear regression analysis, where the dependent variable was the dry mass, and the independent variables were height (h), diameter (d) and d²h. The validation was carried out using Pearson correlation coefficient, paired t-Student test and standard error of estimation. The best equations to estimate aboveground phytomass were: lnDW = -3.068+2.522lnd (r² = 0.91; s y/x = 0.67) and lnDW = -3.676+0.951ln d²h (r² = 0.94; s y/x = 0.56).

Modelos preditores da fitomassa aérea da Floresta Baixa de Restinga

Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver modelos preditores de fitomassa epigéa da vegetação arbórea da Floresta Baixa de Restinga. Foram selecionadas 102 árvores de 29 espécies ocorrentes na área de estudo e 102 indivíduos de jerivá (Syagrus romanzoffiana (Cham.) Glassman), distribuídos proporcionalmente entre as classes de diâmetro da vegetação arbórea. As árvores foram cortadas, ao nível do solo e foram medidos a altura total e o diâmetro à altura do peito (DAP) de cada árvore. As folhas foram separadas do lenho e a massa fresca da porção lenhosa e foliar medidas separadamente. Amostras de cada fração foram secas a 70 °C, até peso constante, para determinação da massa seca das árvores. Os modelos foram desenvolvidos através de análise de regressão linear, sendo a variável dependente a massa seca (MS) das árvores e as variáveis independentes a altura (h), o diâmetro a altura do peito (d) e as relações d² h e d² h multiplicada pela densidade da madeira (ρ d² h). Os modelos desenvolvidos indicam que o diâmetro explica grande parte da variabilidade da fitomassa das árvores da restinga e a altura é a variável explanatória da equação específica para o jerivá. Os modelos selecionados foram: ln MS (kg) = -1,352 + 2,009 ln d (R² = 0,96; s yx = 0,34) para a comunidade vegetal sem jerivá, ln MS (kg) = -2,052 + 0,801 ln d² h (R² = 0,94; s yx = 0,38) para a comunidade incluindo o jerivá, e ln MS (kg) = -0,884 + 2,40 ln h (R² = 0,92; s yx = 0,49) para o jerivá.

Prevalência de deficiência auditiva referida e causas atribuídas: um estudo de base populacional

Objetivou-se verificar a prevalência de deficiência auditiva referida pela população urbana de quatro localidades do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, e estudar as causas atribuídas e variáveis sócio-demográficas. Foi realizado um estudo transversal de base populacional com dados referentes à população com 12 anos ou mais residente nas quatro localidades, em 2001 e 2002. Participaram 5.250 sujeitos selecionados por amostragem probabilística, estratificada e selecionada por conglomerados, em dois estágios. A análise dos dados foi exploratória, incluindo análise bivariada e regressão logística múltipla. A prevalência de deficiência auditiva foi 5,21%, mais acentuada nas faixas etárias acima de 59 anos (18,7%), que referiram doenças nos 15 dias anteriores à entrevista (8,4%), com transtorno mental comum (8,85%) e que fizeram uso de medicamentos nos últimos 3 dias (8,45%). O estudo dos fatores que se associam à deficiência auditiva direcionam intervenções de saúde para que atendam as reais necessidades da população, principalmente na atenção primária. Há necessidade de mais estudos populacionais com enfoque na audição, visto que esta é uma área escassa de publicações no Brasil.

Fatores associados à qualidade da dieta de adultos residentes na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil, 2002

Objetivou-se avaliar os fatores demográficos, sócio-econômicos e de estilo de vida associados à qualidade da dieta de adultos residentes na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil. Estudo transversal, por meio de inquérito domiciliar, de base populacional, foi realizado no Distrito do Butantã e nos municípios de Itapecerica da Serra, Embu e Taboão da Serra. Utilizaram-se dados de um questionário e um recordatório de 24 horas de 1.840 adultos de 20 anos ou mais, de ambos os sexos, incluídos em um inquérito de saúde (ISA-SP). A qualidade da dieta foi avaliada através do índice de qualidade da dieta (IQD) adaptado para a realidade local. Utilizou-se análise de regressão linear para avaliar a associação entre o IQD e as demais variáveis. A maioria da população (75%) apresentou dieta que necessita de melhora. Observaram-se médias baixas para os componentes: frutas, verduras e legumes, leite e derivados. Número de bens de consumo duráveis, escolaridade do chefe da família e ter 60 anos ou mais se associaram ao IQD em homens. Para as mulheres, a faixa etária se associou ao IQD. Em ambos os modelos, o consumo de calorias se manteve como variável de ajuste.

Factors associated with depression symptoms in high school students in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess factors associated with depression symptoms in high school students. METHODS: A cross-sectional study involving high school students was conducted in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, 2001. A total of 724 students aged 14-18 years answered questionnaires on life and health conditions. Another questionnaire was applied to working (44.8%) and unemployed (22.9%) students to collect information on working conditions. Factors associated to depressive disorders were analyzed using multiple logistic regression controlled for occupational status. RESULTS: Overall prevalence rate of depression was 7.5%. Rates according to gender were 39 (10.3%) in females and 15 (4.3%) in males. The multiple logistic regression analysis showed that factors associated with depressive disorders were: poor self-perception of health (OR=5.78), being female (OR = 2.45), and alcohol consumption (OR=2.35). CONCLUSIONS: The study results showed that sociodemographic, lifestyle and health variables were associated with symptoms of depression in this population. These ndings suggest that it is important to have mental health professionals available in high schools for early detection of mental conditions and student counseling.

Presença de mosquitos (Diptera: Culicidae) em piscinões na zona leste de São Paulo

INTRODUÇÃO: Alterações no ambiente vêm contribuindo com mudanças climáticas, como o aumento do volume de chuvas, que acarreta as inundações. Medidas estão sendo tomadas no enfrentamento das inundações, como a implantação dos reservatórios de contenção de cheias (piscinões). Neste trabalho, foi avaliada a fauna de culicídeos, de importância epidemiológica, nos piscinões Caguaçu e Inhumas. MÉTODOS: Foram realizadas coletas mensais nos piscinões Caguaçu e Inhumas, situados na região leste de São Paulo, de março de 2006 a fevereiro de 2007, empregando-se os métodos de concha entomológica e aspirador. Para análise dos dados, foram realizadas análises estatísticas descritivas e a regressão linear simples. RESULTADOS: Foram coletados 8.917 culicídeos, destacando-se Culex (Culex) quinquefasciatus, que representou 98,9% dos espécimes no Inhumas e 95,2% no Caguaçu. No Caguaçu, a maior frequência de imaturos foi observada no vertedouro (61%) e no Inhumas na canaleta (42,6%). A precipitação prediz 87% da abundância numérica de larvas de terceiro e de quarto estágio no Caguaçu e 60% do número de pupas coletadas. No Inhumas, a precipitação explicou 36% da abundância numérica de larvas e 18% do número de pupas. CONCLUSÕES: Culex quinquefasciatus, vetor de agentes da filariose, arboviroses e fator de incômodo à população, foi a espécie mais frequente nos dois ambientes. Medidas de controle da espécie nos piscinões estudados se fazem necessárias tendo em vista seu potencial epidemiológico.