Fitting of Mixtures with Unspecified Number of Components Using Cross Validation Distance Estimate

Estimation of the number of mixture components (k) is an unsolved problem. Available methods for estimation of k include bootstrapping the likelihood ratio test statistics and optimizing a variety of validity functionals such as AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We investigate the minimization of distance between fitted mixture model and the true density as a method for estimating k. The distances considered are Kullback-Leibler (KL) and “L sub 2”. We estimate these distances using cross validation. A reliable estimate of k is obtained by voting of B estimates of k corresponding to B cross validation estimates of distance. This estimation methods with KL distance is very similar to Monte Carlo cross validated likelihood methods discussed by Smyth (2000). With focus on univariate normal mixtures, we present simulation studies that compare the cross validated distance method with AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We also apply the cross validation estimate of distance approach along with AIC, BIC/MDL and ICOMP approach, to data from an osteoporosis drug trial in order to find groups that differentially respond to treatment.

Testing Wisconsin asphalt mixtures for the 2002 AASHTO mechanistic design procedure

There has been a continuous evolutionary process in asphalt pavement design. In the beginning it was crude and based on past experience. Through research, empirical methods were developed based on materials response to specific loading at the AASHO Road Test. Today, pavement design has progressed to a mechanistic-empirical method. This methodology takes into account the mechanical properties of the individual layers and uses empirical relationships to relate them to performance. The mechanical tests that are used as part of this methodology include dynamic modulus and flow number, which have been shown to correlate with field pavement performance. This thesis was based on a portion of a research project being conducted at Michigan Technological University (MTU) for the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). The global scope of this project dealt with the development of a library of values as they pertain to the mechanical properties of the asphalt pavement mixtures paved in Wisconsin. Additionally, a comparison with the current associated pavement design to that of the new AASHTO Design Guide was conducted. This thesis describes the development of the current pavement design methodology as well as the associated tests as part of a literature review. This report also details the materials that were sampled from field operations around the state of Wisconsin and their testing preparation and procedures. Testing was conducted on available round robin and three Wisconsin mixtures and the main results of the research were: The test history of the Superpave SPT (fatigue and permanent deformation dynamic modulus) does not affect the mean response for both dynamic modulus and flow number, but does increase the variability in the test results of the flow number. The method of specimen preparation, compacting to test geometry versus sawing/coring to test geometry, does not statistically appear to affect the intermediate and high temperature dynamic modulus and flow number test results. The 2002 AASHTO Design Guide simulations support the findings of the statistical analyses that the method of specimen preparation did not impact the performance of the HMA as a structural layer as predicted by the Design Guide software. The methodologies for determining the temperature-viscosity relationship as stipulated by Witczak are sensitive to the viscosity test temperatures employed. The increase in asphalt binder content by 0.3% was found to actually increase the dynamic modulus at the intermediate and high test temperature as well as flow number. This result was based the testing that was conducted and was contradictory to previous research and the hypothesis that was put forth for this thesis. This result should be used with caution and requires further review. Based on the limited results presented herein, the asphalt binder grade appears to have a greater impact on performance in the Superpave SPT than aggregate angularity. Dynamic modulus and flow number was shown to increase with traffic level (requiring an increase in aggregate angularity) and with a decrease in air voids and confirm the hypotheses regarding these two factors. Accumulated micro-strain at flow number as opposed to the use of flow number appeared to be a promising measure for comparing the quality of specimens within a specific mixture. At the current time the Design Guide and its associate software needs to be further improved prior to implementation by owner/agencies.

MATURE FINE TAILINGS (MFTs): A STUDY OF COMPRESSIVE STRENGTH AND RHEOLOGICAL PROPERTIES OF ATHABASCA OIL SANDS PETROLEUM MINING WASTE APPLIED IN CONCRETE MIXTURES

This study investigates the compressive properties of concrete incorporating Mature Fine Tailings (MFTs) waste stream from a tar sands mining operation. The objectives of this study are to investigate material properties of the MFT material itself, as well as establish general feasibility of the utilization of MFT material in concrete mixtures through empirical data and visual observations. Investigations undertaken in this study consist of moisture content, materials finer than No. 200 sieve, Atterburg Limits as well as visual observations performed on MFT material as obtained. Control concrete mixtures as well as MFT replacement mixture designs (% by wt. of water) were guided by properties of the MFT material that were experimentally established. The experimental design consists of compression testing of 4”-diameter concrete cylinders of a control mixture, 30% MFT, 50% MFT and 70% MFT replacement mixtures with air-entrainer additive, as well as a control mixture and 30% MFT replacement mixture with no air-entrainer. A total of 6 mixtures (2 control mixtures, 4 replacement mixtures) moist-cured in lime water after 24 hours initial curing were tested for ultimate compressive strength at 7 days and 28 days in accordance to ASTM C39. The test results of fresh concrete material show that the addition of air-entrainer to the control mixture increases slump from 4” to 5.5”. However, the use of MFT material in concrete mixtures significantly decreases slump as compared to controls. All MFT replacement mixtures (30%, 50%, and 70%) with air-entrainer present slumps of 1”. 30% MFT with no air-entrainer presents a slump of 1.5”. It was found that 7-day ultimate compressive stress was not a good predictor of 28-day ultimate compressive stress. 28-day results indicate that the use of MFT material in concrete with air-entrainer decreases ultimate compressive stress for 30%, 50% and 70% MFT replacement amounts by 14.2%, 17.3% and 25.1% respectively.

Bayesian change-point analysis in linear regression model with scale mixtures of normal distributions

In this thesis, we consider Bayesian inference on the detection of variance change-point models with scale mixtures of normal (for short SMN) distributions. This class of distributions is symmetric and thick-tailed and includes as special cases: Gaussian, Student-t, contaminated normal, and slash distributions. The proposed models provide greater flexibility to analyze a lot of practical data, which often show heavy-tail and may not satisfy the normal assumption. As to the Bayesian analysis, we specify some prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the variance change-point models with the SMN distributions. Due to the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, we propose an efficient Gibbs-type with Metropolis- Hastings sampling algorithm for posterior Bayesian inference. Thereafter, following the idea of [1], we consider the problems of the single and multiple change-point detections. The performance of the proposed procedures is illustrated and analyzed by simulation studies. A real application to the closing price data of U.S. stock market has been analyzed for illustrative purposes.

Electrolysis of Molten Mixtures of Galena and Lead Chloride.

Electrolysis of molten mixtures of lead chloride and galena was carried out under various conditions of temperature, time, composition, and current densities; without a diaphram, and with various diaphrams. Continuous runs, with necessary additions of lead sulfide and lead chloride to maintain a melt of the proper composition, were attempted on a small scale.

A Preliminary Study of the Separation of the Copper Sulfides from Sphalerite and the Effect of Certain Reagents on Some of the Pure Copper Minerals in Synthetic Mixtures

The problem of separating the copper sulfide minerals from sphalerite, in copper - zinc ores, has been a difficult one. This is largely due to the lack of adequate research and the small amount of data obtainable on the behavior of copper and zinc sulfide minerals in flotation circuits.

Perceptual and processing differences between physical and dichorhinic odor mixtures

Perceptual integration of sensory input from our two nostrils has received little attention in comparison to lateralized inputs for vision and hearing. Here, we investigated whether a binary odor mixture of eugenol and l-carvone (smells of cloves and caraway) would be perceived differently if presented as a mixture in one nostril (physical mixture), vs. the same two odorants in separate nostrils (dichorhinic mixture). In parallel, we investigated whether the different types of presentation resulted in differences in olfactory event-related potentials (OERP). Psychophysical ratings showed that the dichorhinic mixtures were perceived as more intense than the physical mixtures. A tendency for shift in perceived quality was also observed. In line with these perceptual changes, the OERP showed a shift in latencies and amplitudes for early (more "sensory") peaks P1 and N1 whereas no significant differences were observed for the later (more "cognitive") peak P2. The results altogether suggest that the peripheral level is a site of interaction between odorants. Both psychophysical ratings and, for the first time, electrophysiological measurements converge on this conclusion.

Sublimation of ice–tholins mixtures: A morphological and spectro-photometric study

Sublimation, the direct transition from solid to gas phase, is a process responsible for shaping and changing the reflectance properties of many Solar System surfaces. In this study, we have characterized the evolution of the structure/texture and of the visible and near-infrared (VIS–NIR) spectral reflectance of surfaces made of water ice mixed with analogues of complex extraterrestrial organic matter, named tholins, under low temperature (<-70° C) and pressure (10-⁵mbar) conditions. The experiments were carried out in the SCITEAS simulation setup recently built as part of the Laboratory for Outflow Studies of Sublimating Materials (LOSSy) at the University of Bern (Pommerol, A. et al. [2015a]. Planet. Space Sci. 109–110, 106–122). As the water ice sublimated, we observed in situ the formation of a sublimation lag deposit made of a water-free porous (>90% porosity) network of organic filaments on top of the ice. The temporal evolution of the tholins and water ice spectral features (reflectance at the absorption bands wavelengths, red slope, from 0.40 to 1.90lm) are analyzed throughout the sublimation of the samples. We studied how different mixtures of tholins with water (0.1 wt.% tholins as coating or inclusions within the water particles), and different ice particle sizes (4.5 ± 2.5 or 67 ± 31lm) influence the morphological and spectral evolutions of the samples. The sublimation of the ice below the mantle produces a gas flow responsible for the ejection of mm to cm-sized fragments of the deposit in outbursts-like events. The results show remarkable differences between these samples in term of mantle structure, speed of mantle building, rates and surface area of mantle ejections. These data provide useful references for interpreting remote-sensing observations of icy Solar System surfaces, in particular the activity of comet nuclei where sublimation of organic-rich ices and deposition of organic-dust particles likely play a major role. Consequently, the data presented here could be of high interest for the interpretation of Rosetta, and also New Horizons, observations.

Future water quality monitoring--adapting tools to deal with mixtures of pollutants in water resource management.

Environmental quality monitoring of water resources is challenged with providing the basis for safeguarding the environment against adverse biological effects of anthropogenic chemical contamination from diffuse and point sources. While current regulatory efforts focus on monitoring and assessing a few legacy chemicals, many more anthropogenic chemicals can be detected simultaneously in our aquatic resources. However, exposure to chemical mixtures does not necessarily translate into adverse biological effects nor clearly shows whether mitigation measures are needed. Thus, the question which mixtures are present and which have associated combined effects becomes central for defining adequate monitoring and assessment strategies. Here we describe the vision of the international, EU-funded project SOLUTIONS, where three routes are explored to link the occurrence of chemical mixtures at specific sites to the assessment of adverse biological combination effects. First of all, multi-residue target and non-target screening techniques covering a broader range of anticipated chemicals co-occurring in the environment are being developed. By improving sensitivity and detection limits for known bioactive compounds of concern, new analytical chemistry data for multiple components can be obtained and used to characterise priority mixtures. This information on chemical occurrence will be used to predict mixture toxicity and to derive combined effect estimates suitable for advancing environmental quality standards. Secondly, bioanalytical tools will be explored to provide aggregate bioactivity measures integrating all components that produce common (adverse) outcomes even for mixtures of varying compositions. The ambition is to provide comprehensive arrays of effect-based tools and trait-based field observations that link multiple chemical exposures to various environmental protection goals more directly and to provide improved in situ observations for impact assessment of mixtures. Thirdly, effect-directed analysis (EDA) will be applied to identify major drivers of mixture toxicity. Refinements of EDA include the use of statistical approaches with monitoring information for guidance of experimental EDA studies. These three approaches will be explored using case studies at the Danube and Rhine river basins as well as rivers of the Iberian Peninsula. The synthesis of findings will be organised to provide guidance for future solution-oriented environmental monitoring and explore more systematic ways to assess mixture exposures and combination effects in future water quality monitoring.