Validating a new clinical subtyping scheme for delirium with electronic motion analysis

The usefulness of motor subtypes of delirium is unclear due to inconsistency in sub-typing methods and a lack of validation with objective measures of activity. The activity of 40 patients was measured with 24 h accelerometry monitoring. Patients with Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) delirium (n = 30) were allocated into hyperactive, hypoactive and mixed motor subtypes. Delirium subtypes differed in relation to overall amount of activity, including movement in both sagittal and transverse planes. Differences were greater in the daytime and during the early evening ‘sundowning’ period. Frequency of postural changes was the most discriminating measure examined. Clinical subtypes of delirium defined by observed motor behaviour on the ward differ in electronically measured activity levels.

The structure of the mixed OH+H2O overlayer on Pt{111}

The structure of the mixed p(3x3)-(3OH+3H(2)O) phase on Pt{111} has been investigated by low-energy electron diffraction-IV structure analysis. The OH+H2O overlayer consists of hexagonal rings of coplanar oxygen atoms interlinked by hydrogen bonds. Lateral shifts of the O atoms away from atop sites result in different O-O separations and hexagons with only large separations (2.81 and 3.02 angstrom) linked by hexagons with alternating separations of 2.49 and 2.81/3.02 A. This unusual pattern is consistent with a hydrogen-bonded network in which water is adsorbed in cyclic rings separated by OH in a p(3x3) structure. The topmost two layers of the Pt atoms relax inwards with respect to the clean surface and both show vertical buckling of up to 0.06 angstrom. In addition, significant shifts away from the lateral bulk positions have been found for the second layer of Pt atoms. (C) 2005 American Institute of Physics.

A refined LEED analysis of water on Ru{0001}: an experimental test of the partial dissociation model

Despite a number of earlier studies which seemed to confirm molecular adsorption of water on close-packed surfaces of late transition metals, new controversy has arisen over a recent theoretical work by Feibelman, according to which partial dissociation occurs on the Ru{0001} surface leading to a mixed (H2O + OH + H) superstructure. Here, we present a refined LEED-IV analysis of the (root3 x root3)R30degrees-D2O-Ru{0001} structure, testing explicitly this new model by Feibelman. Our results favour the model proposed earlier by Held and Menzel assuming intact water molecules with almost coplanar oxygen atoms and out-of-plane hydrogen atoms atop the slightly higher oxygen atoms. The partially dissociated model with an almost identical arrangement of oxygen atoms can, however, not unambiguously be excluded, especially when the single hydrogen atoms are not present in the surface unit cell. In contrast to the earlier LEED-IV analysis, we can, however, clearly exclude a buckled geometry of oxygen atoms.

Geostatistical analysis of rainfall

Rainfall can be modeled as a spatially correlated random field superimposed on a background mean value; therefore, geostatistical methods are appropriate for the analysis of rain gauge data. Nevertheless, there are certain typical features of these data that must be taken into account to produce useful results, including the generally non-Gaussian mixed distribution, the inhomogeneity and low density of observations, and the temporal and spatial variability of spatial correlation patterns. Many studies show that rigorous geostatistical analysis performs better than other available interpolation techniques for rain gauge data. Important elements are the use of climatological variograms and the appropriate treatment of rainy and nonrainy areas. Benefits of geostatistical analysis for rainfall include ease of estimating areal averages, estimation of uncertainties, and the possibility of using secondary information (e.g., topography). Geostatistical analysis also facilitates the generation of ensembles of rainfall fields that are consistent with a given set of observations, allowing for a more realistic exploration of errors and their propagation in downstream models, such as those used for agricultural or hydrological forecasting. This article provides a review of geostatistical methods used for kriging, exemplified where appropriate by daily rain gauge data from Ethiopia.

In situ analysis and structural elucidation of sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) tannins for high-throughput germplasm screening

A rapid thiolytic degradation and cleanup procedure was developed for analyzing tannins directly in chlorophyll-containing sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) plants. The technique proved suitable for complex tannin mixtures containing catechin, epicatechin, gallocatechin, and epigallocatechin flavan-3-ol units. The reaction time was standardized at 60 min to minimize the loss of structural information as a result of epimerization and degradation of terminal flavan-3-ol units. The results were evaluated by separate analysis of extractable and unextractable tannins, which accounted for 63.6−113.7% of the in situ plant tannins. It is of note that 70% aqueous acetone extracted tannins with a lower mean degree of polymerization (mDP) than was found for tannins analyzed in situ. Extractable tannins had between 4 and 29 lower mDP values. The method was validated by comparing results from individual and mixed sample sets. The tannin composition of different sainfoin accessions covered a range of mDP values from 16 to 83, procyanidin/prodelphinidin (PC/PD) ratios from 19.2/80.8 to 45.6/54.4, and cis/trans ratios from 74.1/25.9 to 88.0/12.0. This is the first high-throughput screening method that is suitable for analyzing condensed tannin contents and structural composition directly in green plant tissue.

Impacts of pollution and climate change on ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in the UK: analysis of uncertainties in two empirical niche models

A significant challenge in the prediction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity is quantifying the sources of uncertainty that emerge within and between different models. Statistical species niche models have grown in popularity, yet no single best technique has been identified reflecting differing performance in different situations. Our aim was to quantify uncertainties associated with the application of 2 complimentary modelling techniques. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to model the realised niche of ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in British peatlands. These models were then used to predict changes in Sphagnum cover between 2020 and 2050 based on projections of climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. Over 90% of the variation in the GLMM predictions was due to niche model parameter uncertainty, dropping to 14% for the GAMM. After having covaried out other factors, average variation in predicted values of Sphagnum cover across UK peatlands was the next largest source of variation (8% for the GLMM and 86% for the GAMM). The better performance of the GAMM needs to be weighed against its tendency to overfit the training data. While our niche models are only a first approximation, we used them to undertake a preliminary evaluation of the relative importance of climate change and nitrogen and sulphur deposition and the geographic locations of the largest expected changes in Sphagnum cover. Predicted changes in cover were all small (generally <1% in an average 4 m2 unit area) but also highly uncertain. Peatlands expected to be most affected by climate change in combination with atmospheric pollution were Dartmoor, Brecon Beacons and the western Lake District.

Drivers of fund performance: a panel data analysis

The principle aim of this research is to elucidate the factors driving the total rate of return of non-listed funds using a panel data analytical framework. In line with previous results, we find that core funds exhibit lower yet more stable returns than value-added and, in particular, opportunistic funds, both cross-sectionally and over time. After taking into account overall market exposure, as measured by weighted market returns, the excess returns of value-added and opportunity funds are likely to stem from: high leverage, high exposure to development, active asset management and investment in specialized property sectors. A random effects estimation of the panel data model largely confirms the findings obtained from the fixed effects model. Again, the country and sector property effect shows the strongest significance in explaining total returns. The stock market variable is negative which hints at switching effects between competing asset classes. For opportunity funds, on average, the returns attributable to gearing are three times higher than those for value added funds and over five times higher than for core funds. Overall, there is relatively strong evidence indicating that country and sector allocation, style, gearing and fund size combinations impact on the performance of unlisted real estate funds.

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.

The consistency of private and public real estate within mixed-asset portfolios

This study considers the consistency of the role of both the private and public real estate markets within a mixed-asset context. While a vast literature has developed that has examined the potential role of both the private and public real estate markets, most studies have largely relied on both single time horizons and single sample periods. This paper builds upon the analysis of Lee and Stevenson (2005) who examined the consistency of REITs in a US capital market portfolio. The current paper extends that by also analyzing the role of the private market. To address the question, the allocation of both the private and traded markets is evaluated over different holding periods varying from 5- to 20-years. In general the results show that optimum mixed-asset portfolios already containing private real estate have little place for public real estate securities, especially in low risk portfolios and for longer investment horizons. Additionally, mixed-asset portfolios with public real estate either see the allocations to REITs diminished or eliminated if private real estate is also considered. The results demonstrate that there is a still a strong case for private real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio on the basis of an increase in risk-adjusted performance, even if the investor is already holding REITs, but that the reverse is not always the case.

The effect of asymmetries on stock index return value-at-risk estimates

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models.

The case for REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio in the short and long run

The poor performance of the Stock Market in the US up to the middle of 2003 has meant that REITs are increasingly been seen as an attractive addition to the mixed-asset portfolio. However, there is little evidence to indicate the consistency of the role REITs should play a role in the mixed-asset portfolio over different investment horizons. The results highlight that REITs do play a significant role over both different time horizons and holding periods. The findings show that REITs attractiveness as a diversification asset increase as the holding period increases. In addition, their diversification qualities span the entire efficient frontier, providing return enhancement properties at the lower end, switching to risk reduction qualities at the top end of the frontier.

Conformational studies of mixed-ligand copper(II) chelates. Crystal and molecular structure of (N,N-dimethyl-N′-ethyl-1,2-diaminoethane-(1-phenyl-1,3,-butanedionato)copper(II) perchlorate

The IR and ligand field spectra and the structure of the mixed-ligand compound [N,N-dimethyl-N′-ethyl-1,2-diaminoethane(1-phenyl-1,3-butanedionato)(perchlorato)copper(II)]), [Cu(dmeen)bzac(OClO3)], are reported. The structure was determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction analysis (triclinic, space group ). The structure is square pyramidal with the apical position occupied by one oxygen of the tetrahedral perchlorato group (distance from copper 2.452(5) Å). The plane of the phenyl ring is tilted forming an angle of 16.72(14)° with the plane of the β-dionato moiety. The nitrogenous base adopts the gauche conformation with torsional angle of 108.72(14)°. The ethyl group is cis oriented relative to the phenyl group, occupying the equatorial position with the vector of the carbon-nitrogen bond forming an angle of 143.9(3)° with the CuNN plane. The interactions of the adjacent axial hydrogen with an oxygen of the perchlorato group result in hydrogen bond formation. The IR spectra reveal that in the solid state the Br− or Cl− displace easily the ClO4− group. The shifts in the ligand field spectra indicate that polar solvents participate in donor-acceptor interactions with the metal centre along an axis perpendicular to the CuN2O2 plane.

Continental shift? An analysis of convergence trends in European real estate equities

European economic and political integration have been recognised as having implications for patterns of performance in national real estate and capital markets and have generated a wide body of research and commentary. In 1999, progress towards monetary integration within the European Union culminated in the introduction of a common currency and monetary policy. This paper investigates the effects of this ‘event’ on the behaviour of stock returns in European real estate companies. A range of statistical tests is applied to the performance of European property companies to test for changes in segmentation, co-movement and causality. The results suggest that, relative to the wider equity markets, the dispersion of performance is higher, correlations are lower, a common contemporaneous factor has much lower explanatory power whilst lead-lag relationships are stronger. Consequently, the evidence of transmission of monetary integration to real estate securities is less noticeable than to general securities. Less and slower integration is attributed to the relatively small size of the real estate securities market and the local and national nature of the majority of the companies’ portfolios.

A data framework for measuring the energy consumption of the non-domestic building stock

The transition to a low-carbon economy urgently demands better information on the drivers of energy consumption. UK government policy has prioritized energy efficiency in the built stock as a means of carbon reduction, but the sector is historically information poor, particularly the non-domestic building stock. This paper presents the results of a pilot study that investigated whether and how property and energy consumption data might be combined for non-domestic energy analysis. These data were combined in a ‘Non-Domestic Energy Efficiency Database’ to describe the location and physical attributes of each property and its energy consumption. The aim was to support the generation of a range of energy-efficiency statistics for the industrial, commercial and institutional sectors of the non-domestic building stock, and to provide robust evidence for national energy-efficiency and carbon-reduction policy development and monitoring. The work has brought together non-domestic energy data, property data and mapping in a ‘data framework’ for the first time. The results show what is possible when these data are integrated and the associated difficulties. A data framework offers the potential to inform energy-efficiency policy formation and to support its monitoring at a level of detail not previously possible.

Determination of turbulent heat fluxes using a large aperture scintillometer over undulating mixed agricultural terrain

Scintillometry is an established technique for determining large areal average sensible heat fluxes. The scintillometer measurement is related to sensible heat flux via Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, which was developed for ideal homogeneous land surfaces. In this study it is shown that judicious application of scintillometry over heterogeneous mixed agriculture on undulating topography yields valid results when compared to eddy covariance (EC). A large aperture scintillometer (LAS) over a 2.4 km path was compared with four EC stations measuring sensible (H) and latent (LvE) heat fluxes over different vegetation (cereals and grass) which when aggregated were representative of the LAS source area. The partitioning of available energy into H and LvE varied strongly for different vegetation types, with H varying by a factor of three between senesced winter wheat and grass pasture. The LAS derived H agrees (one-to-one within the experimental uncertainty) with H aggregated from EC with a high coefficient of determination of 0.94. Chronological analysis shows individual fields may have a varying contribution to the areal average sensible heat flux on short (weekly) time scales due to phenological development and changing soil moisture conditions. Using spatially aggregated measurements of net radiation and soil heat flux with H from the LAS, the areal averaged latent heat flux (LvELAS) was calculated as the residual of the surface energy balance. The regression of LvELAS against aggregated LvE from the EC stations has a slope of 0.94, close to ideal, and demonstrates that this is an accurate method for the landscape-scale estimation of evaporation over heterogeneous complex topography.