Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Stressed Web Environments as Strategic Games: Risk Profiles and Weltanschauung

We consider the behaviour of a set of services in a stressed web environment where performance patterns may be difficult to predict. In stressed environments the performances of some providers may degrade while the performances of others, with elastic resources, may improve. The allocation of web-based providers to users (brokering) is modelled by a strategic non-cooperative angel-daemon game with risk profiles. A risk profile specifies a bound on the number of unreliable service providers within an environment without identifying the names of these providers. Risk profiles offer a means of analysing the behaviour of broker agents which allocate service providers to users. A Nash equilibrium is a fixed point of such a game in which no user can locally improve their choice of provider – thus, a Nash equilibrium is a viable solution to the provider/user allocation problem. Angel daemon games provide a means of reasoning about stressed environments and offer the possibility of designing brokers using risk profiles and Nash equilibria.

Examining the Neurocognitive Validity of Commercially Available, Smartphone-Based Puzzle Games

Cognitive assessment typically involves assessing a person’s cognitive performance in unfamiliar and ar-guably unnatural clinical surroundings. User-centred approaches to assessment and monitoring, driven by issues such as enjoyability and familiarity, are largely absent. Everyday technologies, for example, smartphones represent an opportunity to obtain an objective assessment of a person’s cognitive capabili-ties in a non-threatening, discreet and familiar way, e.g. by everyday puzzle games undertaken as a leisure activity at home. We examined the strength of relationships that exist between performance on common puzzle games and standard measures of neuropsychological performance. Twenty-nine participants, aged 50 - 65 years, completed a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery and played three smart-phone-based puzzle games in triplicate: a picture puzzle [Matches Plus], a word puzzle [Jumbline] and a number puzzle [Sudoku]. As anticipated, a priori, significant correlations were observed between scores on a picture puzzle and visual memory test (r = 0.49; p = 0.007); a word puzzle and estimated verbal IQ (r = 0.53; p = 0.003) and verbal learning (r = 0.30; p = 0.039) tests; and a number puzzle and reason-ing/problem solving test (r = 0.42; p = 0.023). Further analyses making allowance for multiple compari-sons identified a significant unanticipated correlation (r = 0.49; p = 0.007) between number puzzle scores and a measure of nonverbal working memory. Performance on these smartphone-based games was in-dicative of relative cognitive ability across several cognitive domains at a fixed time point. Smart-phone-based, everyday puzzle games may offer a valid, portable measure of assessing and monitoring cognition in older adults.

Decision Making by Credal Nets

Credal nets are probabilistic graphical models which extend Bayesian nets to cope with sets of distributions. This feature makes the model particularly suited for the implementation of classifiers and knowledge-based systems. When working with sets of (instead of single) probability distributions, the identification of the optimal option can be based on different criteria, some of them eventually leading to multiple choices. Yet, most of the inference algorithms for credal nets are designed to compute only the bounds of the posterior probabilities. This prevents some of the existing criteria from being used. To overcome this limitation, we present two simple transformations for credal nets which make it possible to compute decisions based on the maximality and E-admissibility criteria without any modification in the inference algorithms. We also prove that these decision problems have the same complexity of standard inference, being NP^PP-hard for general credal nets and NP-hard for polytrees.

Design guidelines for developing customised serious games for parkinson's disease rehabilitation using bespoke game sensors

The research presented in this paper proposes a set of design guidelines in the context of a Parkinson's Disease (PD) rehabilitation design framework for the development of serious games for the physical therapy of people with PD. The game design guidelines provided in the paper are informed by the study of the literature review and lessons learned from the pilot testing of serious games designed to suit the requirements of rehabilitation of patients with Parkinson's Disease. The proposed PD rehabilitation design framework employed for the games pilot testing utilises a low-cost, customized and off-the-shelf motion capture system (employing commercial game controllers) developed to cater for the unique requirement of the physical therapy of people with PD. Although design guidelines have been proposed before for the design of serious games in health, this is the first research paper to present guidelines for the design of serious games specifically for PD motor rehabilitation.

How Video Lecture Capture affects Student Engagement in a University Computer Programming Course: Attendance, Video Viewing Behaviours and Student Attitudes

Introduction
The use of video capture of lectures in Higher Education is not a recent occurrence with web based learning technologies including digital recording of live lectures becoming increasing commonly offered by universities throughout the world (Holliman and Scanlon, 2004). However in the past decade the increase in technical infrastructural provision including the availability of high speed broadband has increased the potential and use of videoed lecture capture. This had led to a variety of lecture capture formats including pod casting, live streaming or delayed broadcasting of whole or part of lectures.
Additionally in the past five years there has been a significant increase in the popularity of online learning, specifically via Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) (Vardi, 2014). One of the key aspects of MOOCs is the simulated recording of lecture like activities. There has been and continues to be much debate on the consequences of the popularity of MOOCs, especially in relation to its potential uses within established University programmes.
There have been a number of studies dedicated to the effects of videoing lectures.
The clustered areas of research in video lecture capture have the following main themes:
• Staff perceptions including attendance, performance of students and staff workload
• Reinforcement versus replacement of lectures
• Improved flexibility of learning
• Facilitating engaging and effective learning experiences
• Student usage, perception and satisfaction
• Facilitating students learning at their own pace
Most of the body of the research has concentrated on student and faculty perceptions, including academic achievement, student attendance and engagement (Johnston et al, 2012).
Generally the research has been positive in review of the benefits of lecture capture for both students and faculty. This perception coupled with technical infrastructure improvements and student demand may well mean that the use of video lecture capture will continue to increase in frequency in the next number of years in tertiary education. However there is a relatively limited amount of research in the effects of lecture capture specifically in the area of computer programming with Watkins 2007 being one of few studies . Video delivery of programming solutions is particularly useful for enabling a lecturer to illustrate the complex decision making processes and iterative nature of the actual code development process (Watkins et al 2007). As such research in this area would appear to be particularly appropriate to help inform debate and future decisions made by policy makers.
Research questions and objectives
The purpose of the research was to investigate how a series of lecture captures (in which the audio of lectures and video of on-screen projected content were recorded) impacted on the delivery and learning of a programme of study in an MSc Software Development course in Queen’s University, Belfast, Northern Ireland. The MSc is conversion programme, intended to take graduates from non-computing primary degrees and upskill them in this area. The research specifically targeted the Java programming module within the course. It also analyses and reports on the empirical data from attendances and various video viewing statistics. In addition, qualitative data was collected from staff and student feedback to help contextualise the quantitative results.
Methodology, Methods and Research Instruments Used
The study was conducted with a cohort of 85 post graduate students taking a compulsory module in Java programming in the first semester of a one year MSc in Software Development. A pre-course survey of students found that 58% preferred to have available videos of “key moments” of lectures rather than whole lectures. A large scale study carried out by Guo concluded that “shorter videos are much more engaging” (Guo 2013). Of concern was the potential for low audience retention for videos of whole lectures.
The lecturers recorded snippets of the lecture directly before or after the actual physical delivery of the lecture, in a quiet environment and then upload the video directly to a closed YouTube channel. These snippets generally concentrated on significant parts of the theory followed by theory related coding demonstration activities and were faithful in replication of the face to face lecture. Generally each lecture was supported by two to three videos of durations ranging from 20 – 30 minutes.
Attendance
The MSc programme has several attendance based modules of which Java Programming was one element. In order to assess the consequence on attendance for the Programming module a control was established. The control used was a Database module which is taken by the same students and runs in the same semester.
Access engagement
The videos were hosted on a closed YouTube channel made available only to the students in the class. The channel had enabled analytics which reported on the following areas for all and for each individual video; views (hits), audience retention, viewing devices / operating systems used and minutes watched.
Student attitudes
Three surveys were taken in regard to investigating student attitudes towards the videoing of lectures. The first was before the start of the programming module, then at the mid-point and subsequently after the programme was complete.
The questions in the first survey were targeted at eliciting student attitudes towards lecture capture before they had experienced it in the programme. The midpoint survey gathered data in relation to how the students were individually using the system up to that point. This included feedback on how many videos an individual had watched, viewing duration, primary reasons for watching and the result on attendance, in addition to probing for comments or suggestions. The final survey on course completion contained questions similar to the midpoint survey but in summative view of the whole video programme.
Conclusions and Outcomes
The study confirmed findings of other such investigations illustrating that there is little or no effect on attendance at lectures. The use of the videos appears to help promote continual learning but they are particularly accessed by students at assessment periods. Students respond positively to the ability to access lectures digitally, as a means of reinforcing learning experiences rather than replacing them. Feedback from students was overwhelmingly positive indicating that the videos benefited their learning. Also there are significant benefits to part recording of lectures rather than recording whole lectures. The behaviour viewing trends analytics suggest that despite the increase in the popularity of online learning via MOOCs and the promotion of video learning on mobile devices in fact in this study the vast majority of students accessed the online videos at home on laptops or desktops However, in part, this is likely due to the nature of the taught subject, that being programming.
The research involved prerecording the lecture in smaller timed units and then uploading for distribution to counteract existing quality issues with recording entire live lectures. However the advancement and consequential improvement in quality of in situ lecture capture equipment may well help negate the need to record elsewhere. The research has also highlighted an area of potentially very significant use for performance analysis and improvement that could have major implications for the quality of teaching. A study of the analytics of the viewings of the videos could well provide a quick response formative feedback mechanism for the lecturer. If a videoed lecture either recorded live or later is a true reflection of the face to face lecture an analysis of the viewing patterns for the video may well reveal trends that correspond with the live delivery.

Playing immersive games on the REVERIE platform

REVERIE (REal and Virtual Engagement in Realistic Immersive Environments) [1] is a multimedia and multimodal framework, which supports the creation of immersive games. The framework supports the creation of games integrating technologies such as 3D spatial audio, detection of the player’s body movement using Kinect and WIMO sensors, NPCs (Non-Playable Characters) with advanced AI capabilities featuring various levels of representation and gameplay into an immersive 3D environment. A demonstration game was developed for REVERIE, which is an adapted version of the popular Simon Says game. In the REVERIE version, a player tries to follow physical instructions issued by two autonomous agents with different degrees of realism. If a player follows a physical instruction correctly, they are awarded one point. If not, they are deducted one point. This paper presents a technical overview of the game technologies integrated in the Simon Says demo and its evaluation by players with variable computer literacy skills. Finally the potential of REVERIE as an immersive framework for gaming is discussed, followed by recommendations for improvements in future versions of the framework.

Human-Centric Chronographics:Making Historical Time Memorable

A series of experiments is described, evaluating user recall of visualisations of historical chronology. Such visualisations are widely created but have not hitherto been evaluated. Users were tested on their ability to learn a sequence of historical events presented in a virtual environment (VE) fly-through visualisation, compared with the learning of equivalent material in other formats that are sequential but lack the 3D spatial aspect. Memorability is a particularly important function of visualisation in education. The measures used during evaluation are enumerated and discussed. The majority of the experiments reported compared three conditions, one using a virtual environment visualisation with a significant spatial element, one using a serial on-screen presentation in PowerPoint, and one using serial presentation on paper. Some aspects were trialled with groups having contrasting prior experience of computers, in the UK and Ukraine. Evidence suggests that a more complex environment including animations and sounds or music, intended to engage users and reinforce memorability, were in fact distracting. Findings are reported in relation to the age of the participants, suggesting that children at 11–14 years benefit less from, or are even disadvantaged by, VE visualisations when compared with 7–9 year olds or undergraduates. Finally, results suggest that VE visualisations offering a ‘landscape’ of information are more memorable than those based on a linear model. Keywords: timeline, chronographics

A Practical Approach to Using Motion Capture in Performance Dance

Markerless systems are becoming more ubiquitous due to their increased use in video games consoles. Cheap cameras and software suites are making motion capture technologies more freely available to the digitally inclined choreographer. In this workshop we will demonstrate the opportunities and limitations provided by easily accessible and relatively inexpensive markerless motion capture systems. In particular we will explore the capacity of these systems to provide useful data in a live performance scenario where the latency, size and format of the captured data is crucial in allowing real-time processing and visualisation of the captured scene

Selecting Robust Strategies in RTS Games via Concurrent Plan Augmentation

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015

The complexities of tourism and regeneration: the case of the 2012 Olympic Games

Regeneration proposals typically seek to use a range of physical, economic and social initiatives to tackle inequality and improve areas. Often they attempt to change the image of places, making them more attractive to tourists, investors, and residents. The role of tourism in these regeneration processes is complex and contested. Tourism elements are often not well understood by decision-makers and sometimes create tensions with wider social regeneration aspirations. Using concepts from complexity theory, this paper interrogates the relationship between tourism and wider regeneration aspirations connected with the 2012 Olympic Games. It uses complexity theory to explore the context within which policies are developed, and the relationships between different policy initiatives. Both are highly complex, constantly evolving and sometimes ambiguous. It argues complexity concepts might be used to help to develop deeper understanding of the relationships between tourism and regeneration.

Personality, emotion, and mood in agent-based group decision making

Group decision making plays an important role in organizations, especially in the present-day economy that demands high-quality, yet quick decisions. Group decision-support systems (GDSSs) are interactive computer-based environments that support concerted, coordinated team efforts toward the completion of joint tasks. The need for collaborative work in organizations has led to the development of a set of general collaborative computer-supported technologies and specific GDSSs that support distributed groups (in time and space) in various domains. However, each person is unique and has different reactions to various arguments. Many times a disagreement arises because of the way we began arguing, not because of the content itself. Nevertheless, emotion, mood, and personality factors have not yet been addressed in GDSSs, despite how strongly they influence results. Our group’s previous work considered the roles that emotion and mood play in decision making. In this article, we reformulate these factors and include personality as well. Thus, this work incorporates personality, emotion, and mood in the negotiation process of an argumentbased group decision-making process. Our main goal in this work is to improve the negotiation process through argumentation using the affective characteristics of the involved participants. Each participant agent represents a group decision member. This representation lets us simulate people with different personalities. The discussion process between group members (agents) is made through the exchange of persuasive arguments. Although our multiagent architecture model4 includes two types of agents—the facilitator and the participant— this article focuses on the emotional, personality, and argumentation components of the participant agent.

Context-aware emotion-based model for group decision making

Involving groups in important management processes such as decision making has several advantages. By discussing and combining ideas, counter ideas, critical opinions, identified constraints, and alternatives, a group of individuals can test potentially better solutions, sometimes in the form of new products, services, and plans. In the past few decades, operations research, AI, and computer science have had tremendous success creating software systems that can achieve optimal solutions, even for complex problems. The only drawback is that people don’t always agree with these solutions. Sometimes this dissatisfaction is due to an incorrect parameterization of the problem. Nevertheless, the reasons people don’t like a solution might not be quantifiable, because those reasons are often based on aspects such as emotion, mood, and personality. At the same time, monolithic individual decisionsupport systems centered on optimizing solutions are being replaced by collaborative systems and group decision-support systems (GDSSs) that focus more on establishing connections between people in organizations. These systems follow a kind of social paradigm. Combining both optimization- and socialcentered approaches is a topic of current research. However, even if such a hybrid approach can be developed, it will still miss an essential point: the emotional nature of group participants in decision-making tasks. We’ve developed a context-aware emotion based model to design intelligent agents for group decision-making processes. To evaluate this model, we’ve incorporated it in an agent-based simulator called ABS4GD (Agent-Based Simulation for Group Decision), which we developed. This multiagent simulator considers emotion- and argument based factors while supporting group decision-making processes. Experiments show that agents endowed with emotional awareness achieve agreements more quickly than those without such awareness. Hence, participant agents that integrate emotional factors in their judgments can be more successful because, in exchanging arguments with other agents, they consider the emotional nature of group decision making.