Heat fluxes and surface radiation measurements from Samoylov Island, Lena Delta, Siberia, October 2007 to March 2008

In this study, we present the winter time surface energy balance at a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia based on independent measurements of the net radiation, the sensible heat flux and the ground heat flux from two winter seasons. The latent heat flux is inferred from measurements of the atmospheric turbulence characteristics and a model approach. The long-wave radiation is found to be the dominant factor in the surface energy balance. The radiative losses are balanced to about 60 % by the ground heat flux and almost 40 % by the sensible heat fluxes, whereas the contribution of the latent heat flux is small. The main controlling factors of the surface energy budget are the snow cover, the cloudiness and the soil temperature gradient. Large spatial differences in the surface energy balance are observed between tundra soils and a small pond. The ground heat flux released at a freezing pond is by a factor of two higher compared to the freezing soil, whereas large differences in net radiation between the pond and soil are only observed at the end of the winter period. Differences in the surface energy balance between the two winter seasons are found to be related to differences in snow depth and cloud cover which strongly affect the temperature evolution and the freeze-up at the investigated pond.

Setting the Rules of the Game: Mega-Regionals and the Role of the WTO

Faced with a WTO in a state of paralysis, large developed trading nations have shifted their attentions to other fora to pursue their trade policy objectives. In particular, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are now being used to promote the regulatory disciplines that were previously rejected by developing countries at the multilateral level. These so-called ‘deep’ or ‘21st century’ PTAs address a variety of issues, from technical norms, procurement, investment protection and intellectual property rights to social and environmental protection. Moreover, recently, developed countries have sought to negotiate PTAs which are large in scale, both in terms of economic size and geographical reach, including the so-called ‘mega-regional’ PTAs, such as the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, the EU-Japan PTA, the Transpacific Partnership, and the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. These mega-regional PTAs are distinctive not just in terms of their sheer size and the breadth and depth of issues addressed, but also because some of their proponents readily admit that one of the central aims pursued by such agreements is to design global rules on new trade issues. In other words, these agreements are being conceived as alternatives to multilateral rule making at the WTO level. The proliferation of 21st century trade deals raises important questions concerning the continued relevance of the WTO as a global rule-making venue, and the impact that the regulatory disciplines promoted in such agreements will have on both developing and developed countries. This paper discusses the emerging features of an international trading system that is increasingly populated by large-scale PTAs and discusses some of the points of tension that arise from such practice. Firstly, it examines instances of horizontal tension resulting from the proliferation of PTAs, particularly the extent to which such PTAs represent a threat or multilateral trade governance. Secondly, it looks at an example of vertical tension by examining the manner in which the imposition of regulatory disciplines through trade agreements can undermine the ability of countries, especially developing countries, to pursue legitimate public interest objectives. Finally, the paper considers a number of steps that could be considered to address some of the adverse effects associated with the fragmentation of the international trading system, including the option of embracing variable geometry within the WTO framework and the need to develop mechanisms that provide flexibility for developing countries in the implementation of regulatory disciplines.

Evolutionary dynamics under various modes of reproduction

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Mapping social values of ecosystem services: What is behind the map?

A growing interest in mapping the social value of ecosystem services (ES) is not yet methodologically aligned with what is actually being mapped. We critically examine aspects of the social value mapping process that might influence map outcomes and limit their practical use in decision making. We rely on an empirical case of participatory mapping, for a single ES (recreation opportunities), which involves diverse stakeholders such as planners, researchers, and community representatives. Value elicitation relied on an individual open-ended interview and a mapping exercise. Interpretation of the narratives and GIS calculations of proximity, centrality, and dispersion helped in exploring the factors driving participants’ answers. Narratives reveal diverse value types. Whereas planners highlighted utilitarian and aesthetic values, the answers from researchers revealed naturalistic values as well. In turn community representatives acknowledged symbolic values. When remitted to the map, these values were constrained to statements toward a much narrower set of features of the physical (e.g., volcanoes) and built landscape (e.g., roads). The results suggest that mapping, as an instrumental approach toward social valuation, may capture only a subset of relevant assigned values. This outcome is the interplay between participants’ characteristics, including their acquaintance with the territory and their ability with maps, and the mapping procedure itself, including the proxies used to represent the ES and the value typology chosen, the elicitation question, the cartographic features displayed on the base map, and the spatial scale.

EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT EVENTS AND CHRONIC RESPIRATORY DISEASES AMONG A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION

Previous studies have shown that extreme weather events are on the rise in response to our changing climate. Such events are projected to become more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. A consistent exposure metric for measuring these extreme events as well as information regarding how these events lead to ill health are needed to inform meaningful adaptation strategies that are specific to the needs of local communities. Using federal meteorological data corresponding to 17 years (1997-2013) of the National Health Interview Survey, this research: 1) developed a location-specific exposure metric that captures individuals’ “exposure” at a spatial scale that is consistent with publicly available county-level health outcome data; 2) characterized the United States’ population in counties that have experienced higher numbers of extreme heat events and thus identified population groups likely to experience future events; and 3) developed an empirical model describing the association between exposure to extreme heat events and hay fever. This research confirmed that the natural modes of forcing (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), seasonality, urban-rural classification, and division of country have an impact on the number extreme heat events recorded. Also, many of the areas affected by extreme heat events are shown to have a variety of vulnerable populations including women of childbearing age, people who are poor, and older adults. Lastly, this research showed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7% increased odds of hay fever compared to those in the lowest quartile, suggesting that exposure to extreme heat events increases risk of hay fever among US adults.

Wind Waves in the Arctic Seas: Envisat and AltiKa Data Analysis

Wind-generated waves in the Kara, Laptev, and East-Siberian Seas are investigated using altimeter data from Envisat RA-2 and SARAL-AltiKa. Only isolated ice-free zones had been selected for analysis. Wind seas can be treated as pure wind-generated waves without any contamination by ambient swell. Such zones were identified using ice concentration data from microwave radiometers. Altimeter data, both significant wave height (SWH) and wind speed, for these areas were further obtained for the period 2002-2012 using Envisat RA-2 measurements, and for 2013 using SARAL-AltiKa. Dependencies of dimensionless SWH and wavelength on dimensionless wave generation spatial scale are compared to known empirical dependencies for fetch-limited wind wave development. We further check sensitivity of Ka- and Ku-band and discuss new possibilities that AltiKa's higher resolution can open.

Landau-Gutzwiller quasi-particles

We define Landau quasiparticles within the Gutzwiller variational theory and derive their dispersion relation for general multiband Hubbard models in the limit of large spatial dimensions D. Thereby we reproduce our previous calculations which were based on a phenomenological effective single-particle Hamiltonian. For the one-band Hubbard model we calculate the frst-order corrections in 1/D and find that the corrections to the quasiparticle dispersions are small in three dimensions. They may be largely absorbed in a rescaling of the total bandwidth, unless the system is close to half band filling. Therefore, the Gutzwiller theory in the limit of large dimensions provides quasiparticle bands which are suitable for a comparison with real, three-dimensional Fermi liquids.

Towards a predictive model of Ca²⁺ puffs

We investigate key characteristics of Ca²⁺ puffs in deterministic and stochastic frameworks that all incorporate the cellular morphology of IP[subscript]3 receptor channel clusters. In a first step, we numerically study Ca²⁺ liberation in a three dimensional representation of a cluster environment with reaction-diffusion dynamics in both the cytosol and the lumen. These simulations reveal that Ca²⁺ concentrations at a releasing cluster range from 80 µM to 170 µM and equilibrate almost instantaneously on the time scale of the release duration. These highly elevated Ca²⁺ concentrations eliminate Ca²⁺ oscillations in a deterministic model of an IP[subscript]3R channel cluster at physiological parameter values as revealed by a linear stability analysis. The reason lies in the saturation of all feedback processes in the IP[subscript]3R gating dynamics, so that only fluctuations can restore experimentally observed Ca²⁺ oscillations. In this spirit, we derive master equations that allow us to analytically quantify the onset of Ca²⁺ puffs and hence the stochastic time scale of intracellular Ca²⁺ dynamics. Moving up the spatial scale, we suggest to formulate cellular dynamics in terms of waiting time distribution functions. This approach prevents the state space explosion that is typical for the description of cellular dynamics based on channel states and still contains information on molecular fluctuations. We illustrate this method by studying global Ca²⁺ oscillations.

Multi-sensor Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval Simulator and Its Applications

Executing a cloud or aerosol physical properties retrieval algorithm from controlled synthetic data is an important step in retrieval algorithm development. Synthetic data can help answer questions about the sensitivity and performance of the algorithm or aid in determining how an existing retrieval algorithm may perform with a planned sensor. Synthetic data can also help in solving issues that may have surfaced in the retrieval results. Synthetic data become very important when other validation methods, such as field campaigns,are of limited scope. These tend to be of relatively short duration and often are costly. Ground stations have limited spatial coverage whilesynthetic data can cover large spatial and temporal scales and a wide variety of conditions at a low cost. In this work I develop an advanced cloud and aerosol retrieval simulator for the MODIS instrument, also known as Multi-sensor Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval Simulator (MCARS). In a close collaboration with the modeling community I have seamlessly combined the GEOS-5 global climate model with the DISORT radiative transfer code, widely used by the remote sensing community, with the observations from the MODIS instrument to create the simulator. With the MCARS simulator it was then possible to solve the long standing issue with the MODIS aerosol optical depth retrievals that had a low bias for smoke aerosols. MODIS aerosol retrieval did not account for effects of humidity on smoke aerosols. The MCARS simulator also revealed an issue that has not been recognized previously, namely,the value of fine mode fraction could create a linear dependence between retrieved aerosol optical depth and land surface reflectance. MCARS provided the ability to examine aerosol retrievals against “ground truth” for hundreds of thousands of simultaneous samples for an area covered by only three AERONET ground stations. Findings from MCARS are already being used to improve the performance of operational MODIS aerosol properties retrieval algorithms. The modeling community will use the MCARS data to create new parameterizations for aerosol properties as a function of properties of the atmospheric column and gain the ability to correct any assimilated retrieval data that may display similar dependencies in comparisons with ground measurements.

Strong influence of local habitat structure on mammals reveals mismatch with edge effects models

Context: What determines mammal occurrence across wildland-urban edges? A better understanding of the variables involved will help update edge effects theory and improve our ability to conserve biota in urbanizing landscapes. Objectives: For the first time, we tested whether the occurrence of mammals across urban-forest edges and forest interiors was best predicted by: (1) edge variables (i.e. edge type and distance to an urban boundary), (2) local habitat structure (e.g. proportion of understory cover), or (3) edge variables after accounting for local habitat structure. Methods: Using 77 camera stations in South-Eastern Australia, we quantified the factors influencing the occurrence of five native mammals (brown antechinus, bush rat, common brushtail possum, black wallaby and long-nosed bandicoot) and three non-native mammals (red fox, cat, and dog). Results: The occurrence of most native and non-native mammals was best predicted by local habitat structure rather than by edge variables. Although edge variables had effects on most species occurrences, local habitat structure outweighed the impacts of edge effects. Conclusions: Our findings are important for management and urban planning as they suggest that local-scale management of habitat and habitat retention at urban edges will mitigate urban impacts on fauna. Our work reveals a critical mismatch in the spatial scale of predictive variables commonly used in edge effects models (edge types and distance to a boundary) compared with the smaller scale of local habitat variables, which underlie most species occurrence. We emphasize the need to consider heterogeneity within patches in predictive frameworks of edge effects.

Temporal variation in the diet of gentoo penguins at the Falkland Islands

Knowledge of diet is critical in interpreting the ecological roles of marine top predators and provides information towards their conservation and management. The Falkland Islands hold the largest number of breeding gentoo penguins. Yet knowledge of gentoo penguin diet at the Falklands is limited to either broad taxonomic divisions of prey items or dietary samples collected only on a single day. This study is the first to investigate gentoo penguin diet at Cow Bay, Falklands, to the species level, over repeated sampling intervals during the breeding period. Through stomach content analysis, we determined diet over a large temporal scale (2002/2003/2004–2011/2012/2013) and between the guard and crèche periods of chick rearing. The principle prey item by reconstituted mass was rock cod fish Patagonotothen spp., for all periods (47–78 %) except that of the 2012/2013 crèche period (19 %) when Falkland herring Sprattus fugensis made up the bulk of the diet (52 %). Of the cephalopods recovered, Patagonian squid Doryteuthis gahi was prominent (1–24 %), while crustaceans contributed negligibly to gentoo penguin diet. Our findings revealed that gentoo penguins breeding at the Falkland Islands were primarily demersal foragers with an ability for pelagic feeding. Diet choice appears to reflect prey availability.

Does Landscape Context Affect Habitat Value? The Importance of Seascape Ecology in Back-reef Systems

Seascape ecology provides a useful framework from which to understand the processes governing spatial variability in ecological patterns. Seascape context, or the composition and pattern of habitat surrounding a focal patch, has the potential to impact resource availability, predator-prey interactions, and connectivity with other habitats. For my dissertation research, I combined a variety of approaches to examine how habitat quality for fishes is influenced by a diverse range of seascape factors in sub-tropical, back-reef ecosystems. In the first part of my dissertation, I examined how seascape context can affect reef fish communities on an experimental array of artificial reefs created in various seascape contexts in Abaco, Bahamas. I found that the amount of seagrass at large spatial scales was an important predictor of community assembly on these reefs. Additionally, seascape context had differing effects on various aspects of habitat quality for the most common reef species, White grunt Haemulon plumierii. The amount of seagrass at large spatial scales had positive effects on fish abundance and secondary production, but not on metrics of condition and growth. The second part of my dissertation focused on how foraging conditions for fish varied across a linear seascape gradient in the Loxahatchee River estuary in Florida, USA. Gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus, traded food quality for quantity along this estuarine gradient, maintaining similar growth rates and condition among sites. Additional work focused on identifying major energy flow pathways to two consumers in oyster-reef food webs in the Loxahatchee. Algal and microphytobenthos resource pools supported most of the production to these consumers, and body size for one of the consumers mediated food web linkages with surrounding mangrove habitats. All of these studies examined a different facet of the importance of seascape context in governing ecological processes occurring in focal habitats and underscore the role of connectivity among habitats in back-reef systems. The results suggest that management approaches consider the surrounding seascape when prioritizing areas for conservation or attempting to understand the impacts of seascape change on focal habitat patches. For this reason, spatially-based management approaches are recommended to most effectively manage back-reef systems.

Selecting umbrella species for conservation: a test of habitat models and niche overlap for beach-nesting birds

Umbrella species are rarely selected systematically from a range of candidate species. On sandy beaches, birds that nest on the upper beach or in dunes are threatened globally and hence are prime candidates for conservation intervention and putative umbrella species status. Here we use a maximum-likelihood, multi-species distribution modeling approach to select an appropriate conservation umbrella from a group of candidate species occupying similar habitats. We identify overlap in spatial extent and niche characteristics among four beach-nesting bird species of conservation concern, American oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus), black skimmers (Rynchops niger), least terns (Sterna antillarum) and piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), across their entire breeding range in New Jersey, USA. We quantify the benefit and efficiency of using each species as a candidate umbrella on the remaining group. Piping plover nesting habitat encompassed 86% of the least tern habitat but only 15% and 13% of the black skimmer and American oystercatcher habitat, respectively. However, plovers co-occur with all three species across 66% of their total nesting habitat extent (~ 649 ha), suggesting their value as an umbrella at the local scale. American oystercatcher nesting habitat covers 100%, 99% and 47% of piping plover, least tern and black skimmer habitat, making this species more appropriate conservation umbrellas at a regional scale. Our results demonstrate that the choice of umbrella species requires explicit consideration of spatial scale and an understanding of the habitat attributes that an umbrella species represents and to which extent it encompasses other species of conservation interest. Notwithstanding the attractiveness of the umbrella species concept, local conservation interventions especially for breeding individuals in small populations may still be needed.

The SLUGGS survey: a new mask design to reconstruct the stellar populations and kinematics of both inner and outer galaxy regions

Integral field unit spectrographs allow the 2D exploration of the kinematics and stellar populations of galaxies, although they are generally restricted to small fields-of-view. Using the large field-of-view of the DEIMOS multislit spectrograph on Keck and our Stellar Kinematics using Multiple Slits technique, we are able to extract sky-subtracted stellar light spectra to large galactocentric radii. Here, we present a new DEIMOS mask design named SuperSKiMS that explores large spatial scales without sacrificing high spatial sampling. We simulate a set of observations with such a mask design on the nearby galaxy NGC 1023, measuring stellar kinematics and metallicities out to where the galaxy surface brightness is orders of magnitude fainter than the sky. With this technique we also reproduce the results from literature integral field spectroscopy in the innermost galaxy regions. In particular, we use the simulated NGC 1023 kinematics to model its total mass distribution to large radii, obtaining comparable results with those from published integral field unit observation. Finally, from new spectra of NGC 1023, we obtain stellar 2D kinematics and metallicity distributions that show good agreement with integral field spectroscopy results in the overlapping regions. In particular, we do not find a significant offset between our Stellar Kinematics using Multiple Slits and the ATLAS3D stellar velocity dispersion at the same spatial locations.

Conceptual domain of the matrix in fragmented landscapes

In extensively modified landscapes, how the matrix is managed determines many conservation outcomes. Recent publications revise popular conceptions of a homogeneous and static matrix, yet we still lack an adequate conceptual model of the matrix. Here, we identify three core effects that influence patch-dependent species, through impacts associated with movement and dispersal, resource availability, and the abiotic environment. These core effects are modified by five 'dimensions': spatial and temporal variation in matrix quality; spatial scale; temporal scale of matrix variation; and adaptation. The conceptual domain of the matrix, defined as three core effects and their interaction with these five dimensions, provides a much-needed framework to underpin management of fragmented landscapes and highlights new research priorities.