The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Developing a meta model for the Bunge-Wand-Weber ontological constructs

At the core of the analysis task in the development process is information systems requirements modelling, Modelling of requirements has been occurring for many years and the techniques used have progressed from flowcharting through data flow diagrams and entity-relationship diagrams to object-oriented schemas today. Unfortunately, researchers have been able to give little theoretical guidance only to practitioners on which techniques to use and when. In an attempt to address this situation, Wand and Weber have developed a series of models based on the ontological theory of Mario Bunge-the Bunge-Wand-Weber (BWW) models. Two particular criticisms of the models have persisted however-the understandability of the constructs in the BWW models and the difficulty in applying the models to a modelling technique. This paper addresses these issues by presenting a meta model of the BWW constructs using a meta language that is familiar to many IS professionals, more specific than plain English text, but easier to understand than the set-theoretic language of the original BWW models. Such a meta model also facilitates the application of the BWW theory to other modelling techniques that have similar meta models defined. Moreover, this approach supports the identification of patterns of constructs that might be common across meta models for modelling techniques. Such findings are useful in extending and refining the BWW theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reply to comment on `Integrable Kondo impurity in one-dimensional q-deformed t - J models

This is a reply to the comment by P Schlottmann and A A Zvyagin.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Hypercapitalism: Language, new media and social perceptions of value

Using examples from contempoary policy and business discourses, and exemplary historical texts dealing with the notion of value, I put forward an argument as to why a critical scholarship that draws on media history, language analysis, philosophy and political economy is necessary to understand the dynamics of what is being called 'the global knowledge economy'. I argue that the social changes associated with new modes of value determination are closely associated with new media form.

Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

Complex language functions and subcortical mechanisms: evidence from Huntington's disease and patients with non-thalamic subcortical lesions

The neuropathological changes associated with Huntington's disease (HD) are most marked in the head of the caudate nucleus and, to a lesser extent, in the putamen and globus pallidus, suggesting that at least part of the language impairments found in patients with HD may result from non-thalamic subcortical (NTS) pathology. The present study aimed to test the hypothesis that a signature profile of impaired language functions is found in patients who have sustained damage to the non-thalamic subcortex, either focally induced or resulting from neurodegenerative pathology. The language abilities of a group of patients with Huntington's disease (n=13) were compared with those of an age- and education-matched group of patients with chronic NTS lesions following stroke (n=13) and a non-neurologically impaired control group (n=13). The three groups were compared on language tasks that assessed both primary and more complex language abilities. The primary language battery consisted of The Western Aphasia Battery and The Boston Naming Test, whilst the more complex cognitive-linguistic battery employed selected subtests from The Test of Language Competence-Expanded, The Test of Word Knowledge and The Word Test-Revised. On many of the tests of primary language function from the Western Aphasia Battery, both the HD and NTS participants performed in a similar manner to the control participants. The language performances of the HD participants were significantly more impaired (p<0.05 using modified Bonferroni adjustments) than the control group, however, on various lexico-semantic tasks (e. g. the Boston Naming Test and providing definitions), on both single-word and sentence-level generative tasks (e. g. category fluency and formulating sentences), and on tasks which required interpretation of ambiguous, figurative and inferential meaning. The difficulties that patients with HD experienced with tasks assessing complex language abilities were strikingly similar, both qualitatively and quantitatively, to the language profile produced by NTS participants. The results provide evidence to suggest that a signature language profile is associated with damage to the non-thalamic subcortex resulting from either focal neurological insult or a degenerative disease.

Research into telehealth applications in speech-language pathology

A literature review was conducted to investigate the extent to which telehealth has been researched within the domain of speech-language pathology and the outcomes of this research. A total of 13 studies were identified. Three early studies demonstrated that telehealth was feasible, although there was no discussion of the cost-effectiveness of this process in terms of patient outcomes. The majority of the subsequent studies indicated positive or encouraging outcomes resulting from telehealth. However, there were a number of shortcomings in the research, including a lack of cost-benefit information, failure to evaluate the technology itself, an absence of studies of the educational and informational aspects of telehealth in relation to speech-language pathology, and the use of telehealth in a limited range of communication disorders. Future research into the application of telehealth to speech-language pathology services must adopt a scientific approach, and have a well defined development and evaluation framework that addresses the effectiveness of the technique, patient outcomes and satisfaction, and the cost-benefit relationship.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).