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Los cambios percibidos hacia finales del siglo XX y a principios del nuevo milenio, nos ha mostrado que la crisis cultural de la que somos participes refleja también una crisis de los modelos universales. Nuestra situación contemporánea, parece indicar que ya no es posible formular un sistema estético para atribuirle una vigencia universal e intemporal más allá de su estricta eficacia puntual. La referencia organizada, delimitada, invariable y específica que ofrecía cualquier emplazamiento, en tanto preexistencia, reflejaba una jerarquía del sistema formal basado en lo extensivo: la medida, las normas, el movimiento, el tiempo, la modulación, los códigos y las reglas. Sin embargo, actualmente, algunos aspectos que permanecían latentes sobre lo construido, emergen bajo connotaciones intensivas, transgrediendo la simple manifestación visual y expresiva, para centrase en las propiedades del comportamiento de la materia y la energía como determinantes de un proceso de adaptación en el entorno. A lo largo del todo el siglo XX, el desarrollo de la relación del proyecto sobre lo construido ha sido abordado, casi en exclusiva, entre acciones de preservación o intervención. Ambas perspectivas, manifestaban esfuerzos por articular un pensamiento que diera una consistencia teórica, como soporte para la producción de la acción aditiva. No obstante, en las últimas décadas de finales de siglo, la teoría arquitectónica terminó por incluir pensamientos de otros campos que parecen contaminar la visión sesgada que nos refería lo construido. Todo este entramado conceptual previo, aglomeraba valiosos intentos por dar contenido a una teoría que pudiese ser entendida desde una sola posición argumental. Es así, que en 1979 Ignasi Solá-Morales integró todas las imprecisiones que referían una actuación sobre una arquitectura existente, bajo el termino de “intervención”, el cual fue argumentado en dos sentidos: El primero referido a cualquier tipo de actuación que se puede hacer en un edificio, desde la defensa, preservación, conservación, reutilización, y demás acciones. Se trata de un ámbito donde permanece latente el sentido de intensidad, como factor común de entendimiento de una misma acción. En segundo lugar, más restringido, la idea de intervención se erige como el acto crítico a las ideas anteriores. Ambos representan en definitiva, formas de interpretación de un nuevo discurso. “Una intervención, es tanto como intentar que el edificio vuelva a decir algo o lo diga en una determinada dirección”. A mediados de 1985, motivado por la corriente de revisión historiográfica y la preocupación del deterioro de los centros históricos que recorría toda Europa, Solá-Morales se propone reflexionar sobre “la relación” entre una intervención de nueva arquitectura y la arquitectura previamente existente. Relación condicionada estrictamente bajo consideraciones lingüísticas, a su entender, en sintonía con toda la producción arquitectónica de todo el siglo XX. Del Contraste a la Analogía, resumirá las transformaciones en la concepción discursiva de la intervención arquitectónica, como un fenómeno cambiante en función de los valores culturales, pero a su vez, mostrando una clara tendencia dialógica entres dos categorías formales: El Contraste, enfatizando las posibilidades de la novedad y la diferencia; y por otro lado la emergente Analogía, como una nueva sensibilidad de interpretación del edificio antiguo, donde la semejanza y la diversidad se manifiestan simultáneamente. El aporte reflexivo de los escritos de Solá-Morales podría ser definitivo, si en las últimas décadas antes del fin de siglo, no se hubiesen percibido ciertos cambios sobre la continuidad de la expresión lingüística que fomentaba la arquitectura, hacia una especie de hipertrofia figurativa. Entre muchos argumentos: La disolución de la consistencia compositiva y el estilo unitario, la incorporación volumétrica del proyecto como dispositivo reactivo, y el cambio de visión desde lo retrospectivo hacia lo prospectivo que sugiere la nueva conservación. En este contexto de desintegración, el proyecto, en tanto incorporación o añadido sobre un edificio construido, deja de ser considerado como un apéndice volumétrico subordinado por la reglas compositivas y formales de lo antiguo, para ser considerado como un organismo de orden reactivo, que produce en el soporte existente una alteración en su conformación estructural y sistémica. La extensión, antes espacial, se considera ahora una extensión sensorial y morfológica con la implementación de la tecnología y la hiper-información, pero a su vez, marcados por una fuerte tendencia de optimización energética en su rol operativo, ante el surgimiento del factor ecológico en la producción contemporánea. En una sociedad, como la nuestra, que se está modernizando intensamente, es difícil compartir una adecuada sintonía con las formas del pasado. Desde 1790, fecha de la primera convención francesa para la conservación de monumentos, la escala de lo que se pretende preservar es cada vez más ambiciosa, tanto es así, que al día de hoy el repertorio de lo que se conserva incluye prácticamente todas las tipologías del entorno construido. Para Koolhaas, el intervalo entre el objeto y el momento en el cual se decide su conservación se ha reducido, desde dos milenios en 1882 a unas décadas hoy en día. En breve este lapso desaparecerá, demostrando un cambio radical desde lo retrospectivo hacia lo prospectivo, es decir, que dentro de poco habrá que decidir que es lo que se conserva antes de construir. Solá-Morales, en su momento, distinguió la relación entre lo nuevo y lo antiguo, entre el contraste y la analogía. Hoy casi tres décadas después, el objetivo consiste en evaluar si el modelo de intervención arquitectónica sobre lo construido se ha mantenido desde entonces o si han aparecido nuevas formas de posicionamiento del proyecto sobre lo construido. Nuestro trabajo pretende demostrar el cambio de enfoque proyectual con la preexistencia y que éste tiene estrecha relación con la incorporación de nuevos conceptos, técnicas, herramientas y necesidades que imprimen el contexto cultural, producido por el cambio de siglo. Esta suposición nos orienta a establecer un paralelismo arquitectónico entre los modos de relación en que se manifiesta lo nuevo, entre una posición comúnmente asumida (Tópica), genérica y ortodoxa, fundamentada en lo visual y expresivo de las últimas décadas del siglo XX, y una realidad emergente (Heterotópica), extraordinaria y heterodoxa que estimula lo inmaterial y que parece emerger con creciente intensidad en el siglo XXI. Si a lo largo de todo el siglo XX, el proyecto de intervención arquitectónico, se debatía entre la continuidad y discontinuidad de las categorías formales marcadas por la expresión del edificio preexistente, la nueva intervención contemporánea, como dispositivo reactivo en el paisaje y en el territorio, demanda una absoluta continuidad, ya no visual, expresiva, ni funcional, sino una continuidad fisiológica de adaptación y cambio con la propia dinámica del territorio, bajo nuevas reglas de juego y desplegando planes y estrategias operativas (proyectivas) desde su propia lógica y contingencia. El objeto de esta investigación es determinar los nuevos modos de continuidad y las posibles lógicas de producción que se manifiestan dentro de la Intervención Arquitectónica, intentando superar lo aparente de su relación física y visual, como resultado de la incorporación del factor operativo desplegado por el nuevo dispositivo contemporáneo. Creemos que es acertado mantener la senda connotativa que marca la denominación intervención arquitectónica, por aglutinar conceptos y acercamientos teóricos previos que han ido evolucionando en el tiempo. Si bien el término adolece de mayor alcance operativo desde su formulación, una cualidad que infieren nuestras lógicas contemporáneas, podría ser la reformulación y consolidación de un concepto de intervención más idóneo con nuestros tiempos, anteponiendo un procedimiento lógico desde su propia necesidad y contingencia. Finalmente, nuestro planteamiento inicial aspira a constituir un nueva forma de reflexión que nos permita comprender las complejas implicaciones que infiere la nueva arquitectura sobre la preexistencia, motivada por las incorporación de factores externos al simple juicio formal y expresivo preponderante a finales del siglo XX. Del mismo modo, nuestro camino propuesto, como alternativa, permite proyectar posibles sendas de prospección, al considerar lo preexistente como un ámbito que abarca la totalidad del territorio con dinámicas emergentes de cambio, y con ellas, sus lógicas de intervención.Abstract The perceived changes towards the end of the XXth century and at the beginning of the new milennium have shown us that the cultural crisis in which we participate also reflects a crisis of the universal models. The difference between our contemporary situation and the typical situations of modern orthodoxy and post-modernistic fragmentation, seems to indicate that it is no longer possible to formulate a valid esthetic system, to assign a universal and eternal validity to it beyond its strictly punctual effectiveness; which is even subject to questioning because of the continuous transformations that take place in time and in the sensibility of the subject itself every time it takes over the place. The organised reference that any location offered, limited, invariable and specific, while pre-existing, reflected a hierarchy of the formal system based on the applicable: measure, standards, movement, time, modulation, codes and rules. Authors like Marshall Mc Luhan, Paul Virilio, or Marc Augé anticipated a reality where the conventional system already did not seem to respond to the new architectural requests in which information, speed, disappearance and the virtual had blurred the traditional limits of place; pre-existence did no longer possess a specific delimitation and, on the contrary, they expect to reach a global scale. Currently, some aspects that stayed latent relating to the constructed, surface from intensive connotations, transgressing the simple visual and expressive manifestation in order to focus on the traits of the behaviour of material and energy as determinants of a process of adaptation to the surroundings. Throughout the entire Century, the development of the relation of the project relating to the constructed has been addressed, almost exclusively, in preservational or interventianal actions. Both perspectives showed efforts in order to express a thought that would give a theoretical consistency as a base for the production of the additive action. Nevertheless, the last decades of the Century, architectural theory ended up including thoughts from other fields that seem to contaminate the biased vision 15 which the constructed related us. Ecology, planning, philosophy, global economy, etc, suggest new approaches to the construction of the contemporary city; but this time with a determined idea of change and continuous transformation, that enriches the panorama of thought and architectural practice, at the same time, according to some, it puts disciplinary specification at risk, given that there is no architecture without destruction, the constructed organism requires mutation in order to adjust to the change of shape. All of this previous conceptual framework gathered valuable intents to give importance to a theory that could be understood solely from an argumental position. Thusly, in 1979 Ignasi Solá-Morales integrated all of the imprecisions that referred to an action in existing architecture under the term of “Intervention”, which was explained in two ways: The first referring to any type of intervention that can be carried out in a building, regarding protection, conservation, reuse, etc. It is about a scope where the meaning of intensity stays latent as a common factor of the understanding of a single action. Secondly, more limitedly, the idea of intervention is established as the critical act to the other previous ideas such as restauration, conservation, reuse, etc. Both ultimately represent ways of interpretation of a new speech. “An intervention, is as much as trying to make the building say something again or that it be said in a certain direction”. Mid 1985, motivated by the current of historiographical revision and the concerns regarding the deterioration of historical centres that traversed Europe, Solá-Morales decides to reflect on “the relationship” between an intervention of the new architecture and the previously existing architecture. A relationship determined strictly by linguistic considerations, to his understanding, in harmony with all of the architectural production of the XXth century. From Contrast to Analogy would summarise transformations in the discursive perception of architectural intervention, as a changing phenomenon depending on cultural values, but at the same time, showing a clear dialogical tendency between two formal categories: Contrast, emphasising the possibilities of novelty and difference; and on the other hand the emerging Analogy, as a new awareness of interpretation of the ancient building, where the similarity and diversity are manifested simultaneously. For Solá-Morales the analogical procedure is not based on the visible simultaneity of formal orders, but on associations that the subject establishes throughout time. Through analogy it is tried to overcome the simple visual relationship with the antique, to focus on its spacial, physical and geographical nature. If the analogical attempt guides an opening towards a new continuity; it still persists in the connection of dimensional, typological and figurative factors, subordinate to the formal hierarchy of the preexisting subjects. 16 The reflexive contribution of Solá-Morales’ works could be final, if in the last decades before the end of the century there had not been certain changes regarding linguistic expression, encouraged by architecture, towards a kind of figurative hypertrophy, amongst many arguments we are in this case interested in three moments: The dissolution of the compositional consistency and the united style, the volumetric incorporation of the project as a reactive mechanism, and the change of the vision from retrospective towards prospective that the new conservation suggests. The recurrence to the history of architecture and its recognisable forms, as a way of perpetuating memory and establishing a reference, dissolved any instinct of compositive unity and style, provoking permanent relationships to tend to disappear. The composition and coherence lead to suppose a type of discontinuity of isolated objects in which only possible relationships could appear; no longer as an order of certain formal and compositive rules, but as a special way of setting elements in a specific work. The new globalised field required new forms of consistency between the project and the pre-existent subject, motivated amongst others by the higher pace of market evolution, increase of consumer tax and the level of information and competence between different locations; aspects which finally made stylistic consistence inefficient. In this context of disintegration, the project, in incorporation as well as added to a constructed building, stops being considered as a volumetric appendix subordinate to compositive and formal rules of old, to be considered as an organism of reactive order, that causes a change in the structural and systematic configuration of the existing foundation. The extension, previsouly spatial, is now considered a sensorial and morphological extension, with the implementation of technology and hyper-information, but at the same time, marked by a strong tendency of energetic optimization in its operational role, facing the emergence of the ecological factor in contemporary production. The technological world turns into a new nature, a nature that should be analysed from ecological terms; in other words, as an event of transition in the continuous redistribution of energy. In this area, effectiveness is not only determined by the capacity of adaptation to changing conditions, but also by its transforming capacity “expressly” in order to change an environment. In a society, like ours, that is modernising intensively, it is difficult to share an adecuate agreement with the forms of the past. From 1790, the date of the first French convention for the conservation of monuments, the scale of what is expexted to be preserved is more and more ambitious, so much so that nowadays the repertoire of that what is conserved includes practically all typologies of the constructed surroundings. For Koolhaas, the ínterval between the object and the moment when its conservation is decided has been reduced, from two 17 milennia in 1882 to a few decades nowadays. Shortly this lapse will disappear, showing a radical change of retrospective towards prospective, that is to say, that soon it will be necessary to decide what to conserve before constructing. The shapes of cities are the result of the continuous incorporation of architecture, and perhaps that only through architecture the response to the universe can be understood, the continuity of what has already been constructed. Our work is understood also within that system, modifying the field of action and leaving the road ready for the next movement of those that will follow after us. Continuity does not mean conservatism, continuity means being conscient of the transitory value of our answers to specific needs, accepting the change that we have received. That what has been constructed to remain and last, should cause future interventions to be integrated in it. It is necessary to accept continuity as a rule. Solá-Morales, in his time, distinguished between the relationship with new and old, between contrast and analogy. Today, almost three decades later, the objective consists of evaluating whether the model of architectural intervention in the constructed has been maintained since then or if new ways of positioning the project regarding the constructed have appeared. Our work claims to show the change of the approach of projects with pre-existing subjects and that this has got a close relation to the incorporation of new concepts, techniques, tools and necessities that impress the cultural context, caused by the change of centuries. This assumption guides us to establish a parallelism between the forms of connection where that what is new is manifested between a commonly assumed (topical), generic and orthodox position, based on that what is visual and expressive in the last decades of the XXth century, and an emerging (heterotopical), extraordinary and heterodox reality that stimulates the immaterial and that seems to emerge with growing intensity in the XXIst century. If throughout the XXth century the project of architectural intervention was considered from the continuity and discontinuity of formal categories, marked by the expression of the pre-existing building, the new contemporary intervention, as a reactive device in the landscape and territory, demands an absolute continuity. No longer a visual, expressive or functional one but a morphological continuity of adaptation and change with its own territorial dynamics, under new game rules and unfolding new operative (projective) strategies from its own logic and contingency. 18 The aim of this research is to determine new forms of continuity and the possible logic of production that are expressed in the Architectural Intervention, trying to overcome the obviousness of its physical and visual relationship, at the beginning of this new century, as a result of the incorporation of the operative factor that the new architectural device unfolds. We think it is correct to maintain the connotative path that marks the name architectural intervention by bringing previous concepts and theorical approaches that have been evolving through time together. If the name suffers from a wider operational range because of its formulation, a quality that our contemporary logic provokes, the reformulation and consolidation of an interventional concept could be more suitable for our times, giving preference to a logical method from its own necessity and contingency. It seems that now time shapes the topics, it is no longer about materialising a certain time but about expressing the changes that its new temporality generates. Finally, our initial approach aspires to form a new way of reflection that permits us to understand the complex implications that the new architecture submits the pre-existing subject to, motivated by the incorporation of factors external to simple formal and expressive judgement, prevailing at the end of the XXth century. In the same way, our set road, as an alternative, permits the contemplation of possible research paths, considering that what is pre-existing as an area that spans the whole territory with emerging changing dynamics and, with them, their interventional logics.

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Durante las últimas décadas se observa una tendencia sostenida al crecimiento en las dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores, que produce, que las infraestructuras portuarias y otras destinadas al tráfico de contenedores deban adaptarse para poder brindar los servicios correspondientes y mantenerse competitivas con otras para no perder el mercado. Esta situación implica importantes inversiones y modificaciones en los sistemas de transporte de contenedores por el gran volumen de carga que se debe mover en un corto periodo de tiempo, lo que genera la necesidad de tomar previsiones relacionadas con la probable evolución a futuro de las dimensiones que alcanzarán los grandes buques portacontenedores. En relación a los aspectos citados surge la inquietud de determinar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores, con una visión totalizadora de todos los factores que incidirán en los próximos años, ya sea como un freno o un impulso a la tendencia que se verifica en el pasado y en el presente. En consideración a que el tema a tratar y resolver se encuentra en el futuro, con un horizonte de predicción de veinte años, se diseña y se aplica una metodología prospectiva, que permite alcanzar conclusiones con mayor grado de objetividad sobre probables escenarios futuros. La metodología prospectiva diseñada, conjuga distintas herramientas metodológicas, cualitativas, semi-cuantitativas y cuantitativas que se validan entre sí. Sobre la base del pasado y el presente, las herramientas cuantitativas permiten encontrar relaciones entre variables y hacer proyecciones, sin embargo, estas metodologías pierden validez más allá de los tres a cuatro años, por los vertiginosos y dinámicos cambios que se producen actualmente, en las áreas política, social y económica. Las metodologías semi-cuantitativas y cualitativas, empleadas en forma conjunta e integradas, permiten el análisis de circunstancias del pasado y del presente, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que se pueden proyectar hacia un futuro cercano, los que integrados en estudios cualitativos proporcionan resultados a largo plazo, facilitando considerar variables cualitativas como la creciente preocupación por la preservación del medio ambiente y la piratería. La presente tesis, tiene como objetivo principal “identificar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores y determinar sus escenarios”. Para lo cual, la misma se estructura en fases consecutivas y que se retroalimentan continuamente. Las tres primeras fases son un enfoque sobre el pasado y el presente, que establece el problema a resolver. Se estudian los antecedentes y el estado del conocimiento en relación a los factores y circunstancias que motivaron y facilitaron la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques. También se estudia el estado del conocimiento de las metodologías para predecir el futuro y se diseña de una metodología prospectiva. La cuarta fase, denominada Resultados, se desarrolla en distintas etapas, fundamentadas en las fases anteriores, con el fin de resolver el problema dando respuestas a las preguntas que se formularon para alcanzar el objetivo fijado. En el proceso de esta fase, con el objeto de predecir probables futuros, se aplica la metodología prospectiva diseñada, que contempla el análisis del pasado y el presente, que determina los factores cuya influencia provocó el crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques hasta la actualidad, y que constituye la base para emplear los métodos prospectivos que permiten determinar qué factores condicionarán en el futuro la evolución de los grandes buques. El probable escenario futuro formado por los factores determinados por el criterio experto, es validado mediante un modelo cuantitativo dinámico, que además de obtener el probable escenario futuro basado en las tendencias de comportamiento hasta el presente de los factores determinantes considerados, permite estudiar distintos probables escenarios futuros en función de considerar un cambio en la tendencia futura de los factores determinantes. El análisis del pasado indica que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores hasta el presente, se ha motivado por un crecimiento económico mundial que se tradujo en un aumento del comercio internacional, particularmente entre los países de Asia, con Europa y Estados Unidos. Esta tendencia se ha visto favorecida por el factor globalización y la acelerada evolución tecnológica que ha permitido superar los obstáculos que se presentaron. Es de destacar que aún en periodos de crisis económicas, con pronósticos de contracciones en el comercio, en los últimos años continuó la tendencia al crecimiento en dimensiones, en busca de una economía de escala para el transporte marítimo de contenedores, en las rutas transoceánicas. La investigación de la evolución de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el futuro, se efectúa mediante el empleo de una metodología prospectiva en la que el criterio experto se valida con un método cuantitativo dinámico, y además se fundamenta en una solida base pre-prospectiva. La metodología diseñada permite evaluar con un alto grado de objetividad cuales serán los condicionantes que incidirán en el crecimiento en tamaño de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el escenario con mayor probabilidad de acontecer en los próximos veinte años (2032), y también en otros escenarios que podrían presentarse en el caso de que los factores modifiquen su tendencia o bien se produzcan hechos aleatorios. El resultado se sintetiza en que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores en los próximos 20 años se verá condicionada por factores en relación a los conceptos de oferta (los que facilitan u obstaculizan la tendencia), demanda (los que motivan o impulsan la tendencia) y factores externos (los que desestabilizan el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda). La tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores se verá obstaculizada / limitada principalmente por factores relacionados a las infraestructuras, resultando los pasos y/o canales vinculados a las rutas marítimas, los limitantes futuros al crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores; y la interacción buque / infraestructura (grúas) un factor que tenderá a obstaculizar esta tendencia de los grandes portacontenedores. El desarrollo económico mundial que estimula el comercio internacional y los factores precio del petróleo y condicionantes medioambientales impulsarán la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores. Recent years have seen a sustained tendency towards the growth in the dimensions of large container ships. This has meant that port and other infrastructure used for container traffic has had to be adapted in order to provide the required services and to maintain a competitive position, so as not to lose market share. This situation implies the need for major investments in modifications to the container transport system, on account of the large volume of traffic to be handled in a short period of time. This in turn has generated a need to make provision for the probable future evolution of the ultimate dimensions that will be reached by large container ships. Such considerations give rise to the question of what are the future determinants for the growth of large container ships, requiring an overall vision of all the factors that will apply in future years, whether as a brake on or an incentive to the growth tendency which has been seen in the past and present In view of the fact that the theme to be dealt with and resolved relates to the future, with a forecasting horizon of some 20 years, a foresight methodology has been designed and applied so as to enable conclusions about probable future scenarios to be reached with a greater degree of objectivity. The designed methodology contains different methodological tools, both qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative, which are internally consistent. On the basis of past and present observations, the quantitative elements enable relationships to be established and forecasts to be made. Nevertheless such an approach loses validity more than three or four years into the future, on account of the very rapid and dynamic changes which may be seen at present in political, social and economic spheres. The semi-quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used coherently together and allow the analysis of past and present conditions, thus obtaining quantitative results which for short-term projections, which when integrated with the qualitative studies provide results for the long-term, facilitating the consideration of qualitative variables such as the increasing importance of environmental protection and the impact of piracy. The principal objective of the present thesis is "to identify the future conditions affecting the growth of large container ships and to determine possible scenarios". The thesis is structured in consecutive and related phases. The first three phases focus on the past and present in order to determine the problem to be resolved. The background is studied in order to establish the state of knowledge about the factors and circumstances which have motivated and facilitated the growth tendency for large container ships and the methodologies that have been used. In this way a specific foresight methodology is designed. The fourth phase, Results, is developed in distinct stages based on the previous phases, so as to resolve the problem posed and responding to the questions that arise. In this way the determined objective is reached. The fourth phase sees the application of the methodology that has been designed in order to predict posible futures. This includes analysis of the past and present factors which have caused the growth in the dimensions of large container ships up to the present. These provide the basis on which to apply the foresight methods which enable the future factors which will condition the development of such large container ships. The probable future scenarios are made up of the factors identified by expert judgement (using the Delphi technique) and validated by means of a dynamic quantitative model. This model both identifies the probable future scenarios based on past and present factors and enables the different future scenarios to be analysed as a function of future changes in the conditioning factors. Analysis of the past shows that the growth tendency up to the present for large container ships has been motivated by the growth of the world economy and the consequent increased international trade, especially between the countries of Asia with Europe and the United States. This tendency has been favoured by the trend towards globalization and by the rapid technical evolution in ship design, which has allowed the obstacles encountered to be overcome. It should be noted that even in periods of economic crisis, with an expectation for reduced trade, as experienced in recent years, the tendency towards increased ship dimensions has continued in search of economies of scale for the maritime transport of containers on transoceanic routes. The present investigation of the future evolution of large container ships has been done using a foresight methodology in which the expert judgement is validated by a dynamic quantitative methodology, founded on a firm pre-foresight analysis. The methodology that has been designed permits the evaluation, with a high degree of objectivity, of the future factors that will affect the growth of large container ships for the most probable scenario expected in the next 20 years (up to 2032). The evaluation applies also to other scenarios which may arise, in the event that their component factors are modified or indeed in the light of random events. In summary, the conclusión is that the tendency for growth in large container ships in the future 20 years will be determined by: factors related to supply, which slow or halt the tendency; factors related to demand, which encourage the tendency and finally, external factors which interrupt the equilibrium between supply and demand. The tendency for increasing growth in large container ships will be limited or even halted by factors related to infrastructure, including the natural and man-made straits and canals used by maritime transport. In addition the infrastructure required to serve such vessels both in port (including cranes and other equipment) and related transport, will tend to slow the growth tendency. The factors which will continue to encourage the tendency towards the growth of large container ships include world economic development, which stimulates international trade, and an increasing emphasis on environmental aspects.

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En esta Tesis se presentan dos líneas de investigación relacionadas y que contribuyen a las áreas de Interacción Hombre-Tecnología (o Máquina; siglas en inglés: HTI o HMI), lingüística computacional y evaluación de la experiencia del usuario. Las dos líneas en cuestión son el diseño y la evaluación centrada en el usuario de sistemas de Interacción Hombre-Máquina avanzados. En la primera parte de la Tesis (Capítulos 2 a 4) se abordan cuestiones fundamentales del diseño de sistemas HMI avanzados. El Capítulo 2 presenta una panorámica del estado del arte de la investigación en el ámbito de los sistemas conversacionales multimodales, con la que se enmarca el trabajo de investigación presentado en el resto de la Tesis. Los Capítulos 3 y 4 se centran en dos grandes aspectos del diseño de sistemas HMI: un gestor del diálogo generalizado para tratar la Interacción Hombre-Máquina multimodal y sensible al contexto, y el uso de agentes animados personificados (ECAs) para mejorar la robustez del diálogo, respectivamente. El Capítulo 3, sobre gestión del diálogo, aborda el tratamiento de la heterogeneidad de la información proveniente de las modalidades comunicativas y de los sensores externos. En este capítulo se propone, en un nivel de abstracción alto, una arquitectura para la gestión del diálogo con influjos heterogéneos de información, apoyándose en el uso de State Chart XML. En el Capítulo 4 se presenta una contribución a la representación interna de intenciones comunicativas, y su traducción a secuencias de gestos a ejecutar por parte de un ECA, diseñados específicamente para mejorar la robustez en situaciones de diálogo críticas que pueden surgir, por ejemplo, cuando se producen errores de entendimiento en la comunicación entre el usuario humano y la máquina. Se propone, en estas páginas, una extensión del Functional Mark-up Language definido en el marco conceptual SAIBA. Esta extensión permite representar actos comunicativos que realizan intenciones del emisor (la máquina) que no se pretende sean captadas conscientemente por el receptor (el usuario humano), pero con las que se pretende influirle a éste e influir el curso del diálogo. Esto se consigue mediante un objeto llamado Base de Intenciones Comunicativas (en inglés, Communication Intention Base, o CIB). La representación en el CIB de intenciones “no claradas” además de las explícitas permite la construcción de actos comunicativos que realizan simultáneamente varias intenciones comunicativas. En el Capítulo 4 también se describe un sistema experimental para el control remoto (simulado) de un asistente domótico, con autenticación de locutor para dar acceso, y con un ECA en el interfaz de cada una de estas tareas. Se incluye una descripción de las secuencias de comportamiento verbal y no verbal de los ECAs, que fueron diseñados específicamente para determinadas situaciones con objeto de mejorar la robustez del diálogo. Los Capítulos 5 a 7 conforman la parte de la Tesis dedicada a la evaluación. El Capítulo 5 repasa antecedentes relevantes en la literatura de tecnologías de la información en general, y de sistemas de interacción hablada en particular. Los principales antecedentes en el ámbito de la evaluación de la interacción sobre los cuales se ha desarrollado el trabajo presentado en esta Tesis son el Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), la herramienta Subjective Assessment of Speech System Interfaces (SASSI), y la Recomendación P.851 de la ITU-T. En el Capítulo 6 se describen un marco y una metodología de evaluación aplicados a la experiencia del usuario con sistemas HMI multimodales. Se desarrolló con este propósito un novedoso marco de evaluación subjetiva de la calidad de la experiencia del usuario y su relación con la aceptación por parte del mismo de la tecnología HMI (el nombre dado en inglés a este marco es Subjective Quality Evaluation Framework). En este marco se articula una estructura de clases de factores subjetivos relacionados con la satisfacción y aceptación por parte del usuario de la tecnología HMI propuesta. Esta estructura, tal y como se propone en la presente tesis, tiene dos dimensiones ortogonales. Primero se identifican tres grandes clases de parámetros relacionados con la aceptación por parte del usuario: “agradabilidad ” (likeability: aquellos que tienen que ver con la experiencia de uso, sin entrar en valoraciones de utilidad), rechazo (los cuales sólo pueden tener una valencia negativa) y percepción de utilidad. En segundo lugar, este conjunto clases se reproduce para distintos “niveles, o focos, percepción del usuario”. Éstos incluyen, como mínimo, un nivel de valoración global del sistema, niveles correspondientes a las tareas a realizar y objetivos a alcanzar, y un nivel de interfaz (en los casos propuestos en esta tesis, el interfaz es un sistema de diálogo con o sin un ECA). En el Capítulo 7 se presenta una evaluación empírica del sistema descrito en el Capítulo 4. El estudio se apoya en los mencionados antecedentes en la literatura, ampliados con parámetros para el estudio específico de los agentes animados (los ECAs), la auto-evaluación de las emociones de los usuarios, así como determinados factores de rechazo (concretamente, la preocupación por la privacidad y la seguridad). También se evalúa el marco de evaluación subjetiva de la calidad propuesto en el capítulo anterior. Los análisis de factores efectuados revelan una estructura de parámetros muy cercana conceptualmente a la división de clases en utilidad-agradabilidad-rechazo propuesta en dicho marco, resultado que da cierta validez empírica al marco. Análisis basados en regresiones lineales revelan estructuras de dependencias e interrelación entre los parámetros subjetivos y objetivos considerados. El efecto central de mediación, descrito en el Technology Acceptance Model, de la utilidad percibida sobre la relación de dependencia entre la intención de uso y la facilidad de uso percibida, se confirma en el estudio presentado en la presente Tesis. Además, se ha encontrado que esta estructura de relaciones se fortalece, en el estudio concreto presentado en estas páginas, si las variables consideradas se generalizan para cubrir más ampliamente las categorías de agradabilidad y utilidad contempladas en el marco de evaluación subjetiva de calidad. Se ha observado, asimismo, que los factores de rechazo aparecen como un componente propio en los análisis de factores, y además se distinguen por su comportamiento: moderan la relación entre la intención de uso (que es el principal indicador de la aceptación del usuario) y su predictor más fuerte, la utilidad percibida. Se presentan también resultados de menor importancia referentes a los efectos de los ECAs sobre los interfaces de los sistemas de diálogo y sobre los parámetros de percepción y las valoraciones de los usuarios que juegan un papel en conformar su aceptación de la tecnología. A pesar de que se observa un rendimiento de la interacción dialogada ligeramente mejor con ECAs, las opiniones subjetivas son muy similares entre los dos grupos experimentales (uno interactuando con un sistema de diálogo con ECA, y el otro sin ECA). Entre las pequeñas diferencias encontradas entre los dos grupos destacan las siguientes: en el grupo experimental sin ECA (es decir, con interfaz sólo de voz) se observó un efecto más directo de los problemas de diálogo (por ejemplo, errores de reconocimiento) sobre la percepción de robustez, mientras que el grupo con ECA tuvo una respuesta emocional más positiva cuando se producían problemas. Los ECAs parecen generar inicialmente expectativas más elevadas en cuanto a las capacidades del sistema, y los usuarios de este grupo se declaran más seguros de sí mismos en su interacción. Por último, se observan algunos indicios de efectos sociales de los ECAs: la “amigabilidad ” percibida los ECAs estaba correlada con un incremento la preocupación por la seguridad. Asimismo, los usuarios del sistema con ECAs tendían más a culparse a sí mismos, en lugar de culpar al sistema, de los problemas de diálogo que pudieran surgir, mientras que se observó una ligera tendencia opuesta en el caso de los usuarios del sistema con interacción sólo de voz. ABSTRACT This Thesis presents two related lines of research work contributing to the general fields of Human-Technology (or Machine) Interaction (HTI, or HMI), computational linguistics, and user experience evaluation. These two lines are the design and user-focused evaluation of advanced Human-Machine (or Technology) Interaction systems. The first part of the Thesis (Chapters 2 to 4) is centred on advanced HMI system design. Chapter 2 provides a background overview of the state of research in multimodal conversational systems. This sets the stage for the research work presented in the rest of the Thesis. Chapers 3 and 4 focus on two major aspects of HMI design in detail: a generalised dialogue manager for context-aware multimodal HMI, and embodied conversational agents (ECAs, or animated agents) to improve dialogue robustness, respectively. Chapter 3, on dialogue management, deals with how to handle information heterogeneity, both from the communication modalities or from external sensors. A highly abstracted architectural contribution based on State Chart XML is proposed. Chapter 4 presents a contribution for the internal representation of communication intentions and their translation into gestural sequences for an ECA, especially designed to improve robustness in critical dialogue situations such as when miscommunication occurs. We propose an extension of the functionality of Functional Mark-up Language, as envisaged in much of the work in the SAIBA framework. Our extension allows the representation of communication acts that carry intentions that are not for the interlocutor to know of, but which are made to influence him or her as well as the flow of the dialogue itself. This is achieved through a design element we have called the Communication Intention Base. Such r pr s ntation of “non- clar ” int ntions allows th construction of communication acts that carry several communication intentions simultaneously. Also in Chapter 4, an experimental system is described which allows (simulated) remote control to a home automation assistant, with biometric (speaker) authentication to grant access, featuring embodied conversation agents for each of the tasks. The discussion includes a description of the behavioural sequences for the ECAs, which were designed for specific dialogue situations with particular attention given to the objective of improving dialogue robustness. Chapters 5 to 7 form the evaluation part of the Thesis. Chapter 5 reviews evaluation approaches in the literature for information technologies, as well as in particular for speech-based interaction systems, that are useful precedents to the contributions of the present Thesis. The main evaluation precedents on which the work in this Thesis has built are the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), the Subjective Assessment of Speech System Interfaces (SASSI) tool, and ITU-T Recommendation P.851. Chapter 6 presents the author’s work in establishing an valuation framework and methodology applied to the users’ experience with multimodal HMI systems. A novel user-acceptance Subjective Quality Evaluation Framework was developed by the author specifically for this purpose. A class structure arises from two orthogonal sets of dimensions. First we identify three broad classes of parameters related with user acceptance: likeability factors (those that have to do with the experience of using the system), rejection factors (which can only have a negative valence) and perception of usefulness. Secondly, the class structure is further broken down into several “user perception levels”; at the very least: an overall system-assessment level, task and goal-related levels, and an interface level (e.g., a dialogue system with or without an ECA). An empirical evaluation of the system described in Chapter 4 is presented in Chapter 7. The study was based on the abovementioned precedents in the literature, expanded with categories covering the inclusion of an ECA, the users’ s lf-assessed emotions, and particular rejection factors (privacy and security concerns). The Subjective Quality Evaluation Framework proposed in the previous chapter was also scrutinised. Factor analyses revealed an item structure very much related conceptually to the usefulness-likeability-rejection class division introduced above, thus giving it some empirical weight. Regression-based analysis revealed structures of dependencies, paths of interrelations, between the subjective and objective parameters considered. The central mediation effect, in the Technology Acceptance Model, of perceived usefulness on the dependency relationship of intention-to-use with perceived ease of use was confirmed in this study. Furthermore, the pattern of relationships was stronger for variables covering more broadly the likeability and usefulness categories in the Subjective Quality Evaluation Framework. Rejection factors were found to have a distinct presence as components in factor analyses, as well as distinct behaviour: they were found to moderate the relationship between intention-to-use (the main measure of user acceptance) and its strongest predictor, perceived usefulness. Insights of secondary importance are also given regarding the effect of ECAs on the interface of spoken dialogue systems and the dimensions of user perception and judgement attitude that may have a role in determining user acceptance of the technology. Despite observing slightly better performance values in the case of the system with the ECA, subjective opinions regarding both systems were, overall, very similar. Minor differences between two experimental groups (one interacting with an ECA, the other only through speech) include a more direct effect of dialogue problems (e.g., non-understandings) on perceived dialogue robustness for the voice-only interface test group, and a more positive emotional response for the ECA test group. Our findings further suggest that the ECA generates higher initial expectations, and users seem slightly more confident in their interaction with the ECA than do those without it. Finally, mild evidence of social effects of ECAs was also found: the perceived friendliness of the ECA increased security concerns, and ECA users may tend to blame themselves rather than the system when dialogue problems are encountered, while the opposite may be true for voice-only users.

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In Navea, north of Spain, a medieval arch bridge shows a visible distortion (fig.1a). A stone falls down from the web of a gothic vault in a big parish church in Burgos (fig. 1b), and a voussoir falls down from the rib of another gothic vault in Oviedo (fig. 1c). An oval dome collapses in Zaragoza, though another four identical domes remain safe (fig. 1d). Sometimes the building has to support new, heavier loads. The ruin of the abandoned (since the 19th Century) monastery of Melón should be consolidated, some vaults are rebuilt and the visitors can walk over them. A Franciscan Convent is going to be turned into a Cultural Centre, the loads to be supported being multiplied by a factor of two. A little medieval bridge is asked to support the pass of heavy lorries. These are some of the cases I have studied in the last two decades, all of them referring to questions of structural safety. These are the kind of situations which often occurs in the field of Historic Structures. They require a study and an answer. This is no scholarly work (though in some cases new lines of future research will emerge). A judgement must be made by the expert and this judgement affects the safety and economy, in the last instance, of people. As there are rarely unique answers, the behaviour of the expert, then, can also be judged as "ethical", if he proposes an intervention that is necessary and adequate (or, recommends no intervention, judging the situation safe), or "non-ethical", if recommends an unnecessary or disproportionate intervention. In relation to the monument, also, the proposal can be judged ethically; any intervention damaging seriously the character of the monument may be labelled un-ethical.

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This paper is an introduction of the regret theory-based scenario building approach combining with a modified Delphi method that uses an interactive process to design and assess four different TDM measures (i.e., cordon toll, parking charge, increased bus frequency and decreased bus fare). The case study of Madrid is used to present the analysis and provide policy recommendations. The new scenario building approach incorporates expert judgement and transport models in an interactive process. It consists of a two-round modified Delphi survey, which was answeared by a group of Spanish transport experts who were the participants of the Transport Engineering Congress (CIT 2012), and an integrated land-use and transport model (LUTI) for Madrid that is called MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator).

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In recent years a great number of high speed railway bridges have been constructed within the Spanish borders. Due to the demanding high speed trains route's geometrical requirements, bridges frequently show remarkable lengths. This fact is the main reason why railway bridges are overall longer than roadway bridges. In the same line, it is also worth highlighting the importance of high speed trains braking forces compared to vehicles. While vehicles braking forces can be tackled easily, the railway braking forces demand the existence of a fixed-point. It is generally located at abutments where the no-displacements requirement can be more easily achieved. In some other cases the fixed-point is placed in one of the interior columns. As a consequence of these bridges' length and the need of a fixed-point, temperature, creep and shrinkage strains lead to fairly significant deck displacements, which become greater with the distance to the fixed-point. These displacements need to be accommodated by the piers and bearings deformation. Regular elastomeric bearings are not able to allow such displacements and therefore are not suitable for this task. For this reason, the use of sliding PTFE POT bearings has been an extensive practice mainly because they permit sliding with low friction. This is not the only reason of the extensive use of these bearings to high-speed railways bridges. The value of the vertical loads at each bent is significantly higher than in roadway bridges. This is so mainly because the live loads due to trains traffic are much greater than vehicles. Thus, gravel rails foundation represents a non-negligible permanent load at all. All this together increases the value of vertical loads to be withstood. This high vertical load demand discards the use of conventional bearings for excessive compressions. The PTFE POT bearings' higher technology allows to accommodate this level of compression thanks to their design. The previously explained high-speed railway bridge configuration leads to a key fact regarding longitudinal horizontal loads (such as breaking forces) which is the transmission of these loads entirely to the fixed-point alone. Piers do not receive these longitudinal horizontal loads since PTFE POT bearings displayed are longitudinally free-sliding. This means that longitudinal horizontal actions on top of piers will not be forces but imposed displacements. This feature leads to the need to approach these piers design in a different manner that when piers are elastically linked to superstructure, which is the case of elastomeric bearings. In response to the previous, the main goal of this Thesis is to present a Design Method for columns displaying either longitudinally fixed POT bearings or longitudinally free PTFE POT bearings within bridges with fixed-point deck configuration, applicable to railway and road vehicles bridges. The method was developed with the intention to account for all major parameters that play a role in these columns behavior. The long process that has finally led to the method's formulation is rooted in the understanding of these column's behavior. All the assumptions made to elaborate the formulations contained in this method have been made in benefit of conservatives results. The singularity of the analysis of columns with this configuration is due to a combination of different aspects. One of the first steps of this work was to study they of these design aspects and understand the role each plays in the column's response. Among these aspects, special attention was dedicated to the column's own creep due to permanent actions such us rheological deck displacements, and also to the longitudinally guided PTFE POT bearings implications in the design of the column. The result of this study is the Design Method presented in this Thesis, that allows to work out a compliant vertical reinforcement distribution along the column. The design of horizontal reinforcement due to shear forces is not addressed in this Thesis. The method's formulations are meant to be applicable to the greatest number of cases, leaving to the engineer judgement many of the different parameters values. In this regard, this method is a helpful tool for a wide range of cases. The widespread use of European standards in the more recent years, in particular the so-called Eurocodes, has been one of the reasons why this Thesis has been developed in accordance with Eurocodes. Same trend has been followed for the bearings design implications, which are covered by the rather recent European code EN-1337. One of the most relevant aspects that this work has taken from the Eurocodes is the non-linear calculations security format. The biaxial bending simplified approach that shows the Design Method presented in this work also lies on Eurocodes recommendations. The columns under analysis are governed by a set of dimensionless parameters that are presented in this work. The identification of these parameters is a helpful for design purposes for two columns with identical dimensionless parameters may be designed together. The first group of these parameters have to do with the cross-sectional behavior, represented in the bending-curvature diagrams. A second group of parameters define the columns response. Thanks to this identification of the governing dimensionless parameters, it has been possible what has been named as Dimensionless Design Curves, which basically allows to obtain in a reduced time a preliminary vertical reinforcement column distribution. These curves are of little use nowadays, firstly because each family of curves refer to specific values of many different parameters and secondly because the use of computers allows for extremely quick and accurate calculations.

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La determinación del valor del suelo implicado en los procesos de urbanización se mueve en una compleja dialéctica en la que algunos fenómenos de naturaleza morfológica como el modelado del espacio social, o el que se deduce de las determinaciones del planeamiento (aprovechamiento especialmente) se enfrentan a instrumentos de regulación que se rigen por normas de carácter administrativo (urbanísticas y expropiatorias, fiscales, financieras-hipotecarias etc.). En ese marco en el que las discrepancias son frecuentes se pretende analizar las posibles actuaciones encaminadas a influir sobre la formación de ese valor en el sentido de limitar las expectativas de aprovechamiento tradicionalmente vinculadas al sistema urbanístico establecido, destacando al respecto la implantación de criterios de sostenibilidad y participación ciudadana, así como que la utilización de normas administrativas de valoración con la finalidad de reducir tales expectativas y tratar de influir sobre el sistema urbanístico en su conjunto, no se considera suficiente para conseguir el logro de tales objetivos. Añadiendo, respecto del conjunto de normas administrativas de determinación del valor del suelo, que si bien las reglas urbanísticas y expropiatorias establecen actualmente reglas objetivas de valoración, a través de la normativa de valoración destinada a entidades financieras, o de carácter fiscal, se introducen criterios subjetivos que tratan de aproximarse al mercado, incluso en el caso del valor catastral, estructuralmente reglado. Esta separación de criterios ha llevado a un enfrentamiento al que ha venido a dar respuesta la reciente sentencia del Tribunal Supremo de 30 de mayo de 2014, que impone los criterios urbanísticos de consideración de situaciones básicas de suelo, frente a los fiscalmente regulados en relación con la normativa catastral en cuanto a la consideración de suelo urbanizable sin desarrollar, que pasa a ser considerado como en situación rural, siendo por tanto aplicables sobre el mismo las reglas de valoración que la normativa catastral establece para esta categoría de suelo (rústico) que no considera, incluso con la posterior modificación, de junio de 2015, incorporada para adaptarse a la mencionada sentencia, expectativas de aprovechamiento. Pero como se ha señalado, la exclusiva utilización de la normativa urbanística de valoración no se considera suficiente para evitar los efectos que sobre el valor de suelo produce la asignación de tales aprovechamientos, por lo que acuerdo con la actual legislación de suelo, deben asimismo potenciarse actuaciones encaminadas a un desarrollo sostenible así como a la participación ciudadana, la transparencia y el control, con la finalidad de lograr un mayor rigor en la utilización del suelo que ha de traducirse en su valoración. ABSTRACT Determining the land value involved in the urbanisation process implies a complex dialectic in which certain morphological natural phenomena like the modelling of social space or that deduced from planning determinations (especially land use) face regulatory instruments governed by administrative norms (urban planning and expropriator, tax, financial-mortgage etc.). In this context where discrepancies are common, the purpose is to analyse the possible actions geared to influence the formation of that value in the sense of limiting land use expectations traditionally linked to the established urban planning system, highlighting the implementation of sustainability criteria and citizen participation, as well as to consider that the administrative standards of evaluation for reducing said expectations, and trying to influence the urban system as a whole, are not considered sufficient for achieving these objectives. We might add, with respect to the set of administrative norms for determining the land value, that while urban and expropriations norms currently provide objective rules of valuation, subjective criteria are introduced trying to approach the market, including the structurally regulated cadastral value through valuation rules aimed at financial or fiscal institutions. This separation of criteria has led to a confrontation to which the recent ruling of the Supreme Court of May 30, 2014 responds. The aforementioned judgement imposes the urban core criteria for basic land use situations against those fiscally regulated in relation to cadastral regulations regarding the consideration of undeveloped building land, which is considered to be in a rural situation, making it subject to the same rules that cadastral valuation norms established for this category of land use (rustic) which do not consider, even with the subsequent amendment of June 2015, introduced to fit that judgment, use expectations. But as noted, the exclusive use of valuation planning regulations is not considered sufficient to avoid the effects on the land value produced by the allocation of said uses, so that according to the current land use legislation, actions aimed at sustainable development as well as citizen participation, transparency and control, shall be enhanced in order to achieve greater rigor in the use of land which should be translated in their valuation.

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O livro de Malaquias apresenta oráculos que conservam informações relevantes do período pós exílico sob o domínio da Pérsia e, especialmente, os problemas religiosos focalizando a displicência dos sacerdotes no cumprimento de suas funções e os problemas sociais apontando para um amplo movimento de opressão externa e interna. Esta pesquisa buscou verificar, no primeiro capítulo, como a mensagem de Malaquias através de sua forma e conteúdos visava aplacar as insatisfações internas dos grupos que habitavam o território de Judá. Neste capítulo, foram abordadas as discussões histórico-literárias sobre data, autoria, destinatários, forma do anúncio. Ainda procurou-se realizar levantamentos históricos verificando o sistema e as estruturas de opressão dos persas no território de Judá e também as faces da reorganização da sociedade de Judá. O segundo capítulo enfatizou, mais propriamente, o trabalho exegético no quarto oráculo (2,17-3,5). Neste pode-se verificar uma síntese dos temas centrais da mensagem de Malaquias: O juízo divino que viria pela negligência religiosa e que exigia compromissos com a justiça prática na vida do povo. A partir das discussões exegéticas buscou-se verificar como o profeta apresentou ao povo e aos sacerdotes quais seriam os agentes e as ações transformadoras que Javé promoveria para restaurar a justiça e o culto purificado. O terceiro capítulo apresenta um tema recorrente nos oráculos do livro de Malaquias: a justiça. Para isso, foram analisadas três perícopes que tratam o tema da justiça enfocadamente, as influências do sistema judicial persa na prática da justiça cotidiana em Judá e a realidade de opressão nos sistema de parentesco entre as famílias (clãs) que habitavam o território de Judá - (2,10-16; 2,17-3,5 e 3,13-21). A pesquisa de Malaquias aponta para um profeta engajado política e socialmente. O Mensageiro manteve os ideais proféticos e desejou reacender os valores da aliança entre o povo e fortalecer a confiança na ação de Javé que restauraria a justiça na prática cotidiana.(AU)

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O livro de Malaquias apresenta oráculos que conservam informações relevantes do período pós exílico sob o domínio da Pérsia e, especialmente, os problemas religiosos focalizando a displicência dos sacerdotes no cumprimento de suas funções e os problemas sociais apontando para um amplo movimento de opressão externa e interna. Esta pesquisa buscou verificar, no primeiro capítulo, como a mensagem de Malaquias através de sua forma e conteúdos visava aplacar as insatisfações internas dos grupos que habitavam o território de Judá. Neste capítulo, foram abordadas as discussões histórico-literárias sobre data, autoria, destinatários, forma do anúncio. Ainda procurou-se realizar levantamentos históricos verificando o sistema e as estruturas de opressão dos persas no território de Judá e também as faces da reorganização da sociedade de Judá. O segundo capítulo enfatizou, mais propriamente, o trabalho exegético no quarto oráculo (2,17-3,5). Neste pode-se verificar uma síntese dos temas centrais da mensagem de Malaquias: O juízo divino que viria pela negligência religiosa e que exigia compromissos com a justiça prática na vida do povo. A partir das discussões exegéticas buscou-se verificar como o profeta apresentou ao povo e aos sacerdotes quais seriam os agentes e as ações transformadoras que Javé promoveria para restaurar a justiça e o culto purificado. O terceiro capítulo apresenta um tema recorrente nos oráculos do livro de Malaquias: a justiça. Para isso, foram analisadas três perícopes que tratam o tema da justiça enfocadamente, as influências do sistema judicial persa na prática da justiça cotidiana em Judá e a realidade de opressão nos sistema de parentesco entre as famílias (clãs) que habitavam o território de Judá - (2,10-16; 2,17-3,5 e 3,13-21). A pesquisa de Malaquias aponta para um profeta engajado política e socialmente. O Mensageiro manteve os ideais proféticos e desejou reacender os valores da aliança entre o povo e fortalecer a confiança na ação de Javé que restauraria a justiça na prática cotidiana.(AU)

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Esta pesquisa procura examinar, à luz da metodologia exegética, a perícope de Miqueias 2,1-5, a fim de reconstruir o cenário no qual emergiu a dura crítica social do profeta. O texto apresenta, em sua análise literária, características de um dito profético coeso, em estilo poético. Sua estrutura encontra-se dividida em duas unidades (denúncia e castigo), sendo que cada uma das unidades possui outras duas subunidades (genérica e específica). O gênero literário harmoniza-se com um dito profético de julgamento geralmente conhecido como oráculo ai . A análise da dimensão histórica situa o acontecimento fundante em 701 a.C., na Sefelá judaíta. Numa análise investigativa do conteúdo da denúncia norteado pelo modelo teórico do modo de produção tributário, observa-se um conflito entre dois grupos. Nesse conflito, Miqueias faz uma acusação a um grupo de poder em Judá que planeja e executa ações criminosas contra a herança camponesa. O castigo descreve a conspiração e o plano divino contra esse grupo de poder. Javé havia planejado um mal idêntico ao que eles haviam cometido, desonra e privação de suas possessões. Os valores culturais de honra e vergonha subjazem a esse oráculo. Por descumprirem seus deveres junto a Javé e ao povo, os criminosos perderiam todos os seus direitos e, sobretudo, a honra perante a própria comunidade. Com base no modelo teórico do modo de produção tributário, constata-se que, na situação social em Judá no oitavo século, prevalecia um conflito entre campo e cidade. As comunidades aldeãs pagavam tributo à cidade em forma de produtos e serviços. A excessiva arrecadação de tributo e as falhas no sistema de ajuda mútua forçaram os indivíduos e famílias a contrair dívidas, a hipotecar suas terras herdadas dos pais e eventualmente perdê-las. O profeta Miqueias é o porta-voz do protesto da classe campesina que resolve reagir aos desmandos praticados pela elite citadina. Para ele, Javé escuta a queixa dos que estão sendo oprimidos e intervém na história tomando o partido do oprimido.(AU)

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Esta pesquisa procura examinar, à luz da metodologia exegética, a perícope de Miqueias 2,1-5, a fim de reconstruir o cenário no qual emergiu a dura crítica social do profeta. O texto apresenta, em sua análise literária, características de um dito profético coeso, em estilo poético. Sua estrutura encontra-se dividida em duas unidades (denúncia e castigo), sendo que cada uma das unidades possui outras duas subunidades (genérica e específica). O gênero literário harmoniza-se com um dito profético de julgamento geralmente conhecido como oráculo ai . A análise da dimensão histórica situa o acontecimento fundante em 701 a.C., na Sefelá judaíta. Numa análise investigativa do conteúdo da denúncia norteado pelo modelo teórico do modo de produção tributário, observa-se um conflito entre dois grupos. Nesse conflito, Miqueias faz uma acusação a um grupo de poder em Judá que planeja e executa ações criminosas contra a herança camponesa. O castigo descreve a conspiração e o plano divino contra esse grupo de poder. Javé havia planejado um mal idêntico ao que eles haviam cometido, desonra e privação de suas possessões. Os valores culturais de honra e vergonha subjazem a esse oráculo. Por descumprirem seus deveres junto a Javé e ao povo, os criminosos perderiam todos os seus direitos e, sobretudo, a honra perante a própria comunidade. Com base no modelo teórico do modo de produção tributário, constata-se que, na situação social em Judá no oitavo século, prevalecia um conflito entre campo e cidade. As comunidades aldeãs pagavam tributo à cidade em forma de produtos e serviços. A excessiva arrecadação de tributo e as falhas no sistema de ajuda mútua forçaram os indivíduos e famílias a contrair dívidas, a hipotecar suas terras herdadas dos pais e eventualmente perdê-las. O profeta Miqueias é o porta-voz do protesto da classe campesina que resolve reagir aos desmandos praticados pela elite citadina. Para ele, Javé escuta a queixa dos que estão sendo oprimidos e intervém na história tomando o partido do oprimido.(AU)

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Esta tese tem como tema principal o discurso ambiental local. Trata-se de uma proposta de análise, que pode ser aplicada a este tipo de discurso em qualquer localidade, e um estudo de caso, que aplicou a análise proposta na tese. O objetivo geral desta pesquisa foi analisar a informação local sobre meio ambiente veiculada por meio dos discursos jornalístico, político e empresarial, estabelecendo relações históricas, sociais e ideológicas do discurso ambiental que permeiam as três áreas em questão. A metodologia incluiu três fases: pesquisa bibliográfica e revisão de literatura sobre os principais conceitos levantados no trabalho; levantamento de discursos locais disponíveis na mídia para análise no estudo de caso; análise dos discursos a partir de protocolo elaborado com base na Análise do Discurso de linha francesa. O estudo de caso traz a análise do discurso ambiental no município de Frutal-MG, onde hoje estão em andamento várias pesquisas e projetos na área ambiental. A principal conclusão do trabalho confirma a hipótese da pesquisa de que a informação ambiental fruto dos discursos político, jornalístico e empresarial em âmbito local tem caráter predominantemente situacional, mercadológico e propagandístico, pouco focada em conscientizar e educar e com ênfase em interesses comerciais e eleitorais e na resolução de problemas emergenciais.

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The larva of the green lacewing (Ceraeochrysa cubana) (Neuroptera, Chrysopidae) is a natural predator of eggs of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a moth that sequesters pyrrolizidine alkaloids from its larval foodplant (Fabaceae, Crotalaria spp.). Utetheisa eggs are ordinarily endowed with the alkaloid. Alkaloid-free Utetheisa eggs, produced experimentally, are pierced by the larva with its sharp tubular jaws and sucked out. Alkaloid-laden eggs, in contrast, are rejected. When attacking an Utetheisa egg cluster (numbering on average 20 eggs), the larva subjects it to an inspection process. It prods and/or pierces a small number of eggs (on average two to three) and, if these contain alkaloid, it passes “negative judgement” on the remainder of the cluster and turns away. Such generalization on the part of the larva makes sense, because the eggs within clusters differ little in alkaloid content. There is, however, considerable between-cluster variation in egg alkaloid content, so clusters in nature can be expected to range widely in palatability. To check each cluster for acceptability must therefore be adaptive for the larva, just as it must be adaptive for Utetheisa to lay its eggs in large clusters and to apportion alkaloid evenly among eggs of a cluster.

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Opinion (or brief or judgement?) delivered in a case involving a claim by the Colony of New Hampshire to a proprietory right in a ferry running between Portsmouth and Kittery (then in Massachusetts) on the Piscataqua River. The ferry was started in 1684 by John Woodman and conveyed by franchise to Colonel Vaughan by Governor Dudley in 1708. Vaughan died in 1724 and the patent passed to his estate. The town of Portsmouth laid claim to the ferry. Read concluded that this action was not well founded since the ferry is not being operated by possession but by franchise and that, furthermore, New Hampshire does not have complete power over the ferry because Massachusetts has power of franchise on the Kittery end of its route.

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Marriage ritual in Arabic, the Story of the fast of Satī Mā also known as the fast of Maulā ʻAlī, a Prayer to be recited during ceremony for the forgiveness of sin on the Great Day (the Day of Judgement), the short kalimah or testimony of faith and the long kalimah.