Elaboração e estruturação de um modelo de rating interno

Temos vindo a assistir nos últimos anos a uma evolução no que respeita à avaliação do risco de crédito. As constantes alterações de regulamentação bancária, que resultam dos Acordos de Basileia, têm vindo a impor novas normas que condicionam a quantidade e a qualidade do risco de crédito que as Instituições de Crédito podem assumir nos seus balanços. É de grande importância as Instituições de Crédito avaliarem o risco de crédito, as garantias e o custo de capital, pois têm um impacto direto na sua gestão nomeadamente quanto à afetação de recursos e proteção contra perdas. Desta forma, pretende-se com o presente trabalho elaborar e estruturar um modelo de rating interno através de técnicas estatísticas, assim como identificar as variáveis estatisticamente relevantes no modelo considerado. Foi delineada uma metodologia de investigação mista, considerando na primeira parte do trabalho uma pesquisa qualitativa e na segunda parte uma abordagem quantitativa. Através da análise documental, fez-se uma abordagem dos conceitos teóricos e da regulamentação que serve de base ao presente trabalho. No estudo de caso, o modelo de rating interno foi desenvolvido utilizando a técnica estatística designada de regressão linear múltipla. A amostra considerada foi obtida através da base de dados SABI e é constituída por cem empresas solventes, situadas na zona de Paredes, num horizonte temporal de 2011-2013. A nossa análise baseou-se em três cenários, correspondendo cada cenário aos dados de cada ano (2011, 2012 e 2013). Para validar os pressupostos do modelo foram efetuados testes estatísticos de Durbin Watson e o teste de significância - F (ANOVA). Por fim, para obtermos a classificação de rating de cada variável foi aplicada a técnica dos percentis. Pela análise dos três cenários considerados, verificou-se que o cenário dois foi o que obteve maior coeficiente de determinação. Verificou-se ainda que as variáveis independentes, rácio de liquidez geral, grau de cobertura do ativo total pelo fundo de maneio e rácio de endividamento global são estatisticamente relevantes.

EVOLUTION OF PATIENTS WITH AIDS AFTER cART: CLINICAL AND LABORATORY EVOLUTION OF PATIENTS WITH AIDS AFTER 48 WEEKS OF ANTIRETROVIRAL TREATMENT

SUMMARY Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) aims to inhibit viral replication, delay immunodeficiency progression and improve survival in AIDS patients. The objective of this study was to compare two different schemes of cART, based on plasma viral load (VL) and CD4+ T lymphocyte count, during 48 weeks of treatment. For this purpose, 472 medical charts of a Specialized Outpatient Service were reviewed from 1998 to 2005. Out of these, 58 AIDS patients who had received a triple drug scheme as the initial treatment were included in the study and two groups were formed: Group 1 (G1): 47 individuals treated with two nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) and one non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor; Group 2 (G2): 11 patients treated with two NRTI and one protease inhibitor. In G1 and G2, 53.2% and 81.8% respectively were patients with an AIDS-defining disease. The T CD4+ lymphocyte count increased progressively up until the 24th week of treatment in all patients, while VL became undetectable in 68.1% of G1 and in 63.6% of G2. The study concluded that the evolutions of laboratory tests were similar in the two treatment groups and that both presented a favorable clinical evolution.

BODY WEIGHT AS A DETERMINANT OF CLINICAL EVOLUTION IN HAMSTERS (Mesocricetus auratus) INFECTED WITH Leishmania (Viannia) panamensis

SUMMARY The clinical outcome of infection with Leishmania species of the subgenus Viannia in hamster model (Mesocricetus auratus) has shown to be different depending on experimental protocol. Body weight has been a relevant determinant of the clinical outcome of the infection in hamsters with visceral leishmaniasis but its importance as a clinical parameter in hamsters with cutaneous leishmaniasis is not known. In this study, the clinical evolution of infection with L. (V) panamensis was evaluated in juvenile and adult male hamsters during 11 weeks by comparing clinical parameters such as attitude, temperature, respiratory rate, appearance of the stool, and body weight between infected and non-infected groups. Results showed that body weight decreased in adult hamsters after infection by L. (V) panamensis; this observation supports the use of body weight as an additional parameter to define the management or treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis in infected adult hamsters used as an animal experimental model for leishmaniasis.

Comparação dos Perfis Lipídicos de Plasma de uma População da Região Norte

Os ácidos gordos desempenham um papel fisiológico importante como componentes indispensáveis na estrutura celular, bem como fontes de energia. Nas últimas décadas, tem havido um aumento notável do interesse público nos ácidos gordos polinsaturados ómegas 3 e 6 e no seu impacto sobre a saúde humana, especialmente em doenças metabólicas e cardiovasculares. Estes ácidos gordos específicos podem prevenir e/ou tratar várias patologias metabólicas, atuando nomeadamente como compostos anti-inflamatórios. A menopausa é um fator de risco para doença cardiovascular, a diminuição de estrogénio, que ocorre neste estado fisiológico, provoca disfunção endotelial e stresse oxidativo. Consequentemente há uma redução dos níveis de ácidos gordos polinsaturados ómegas 3, o que contribui para o aparecimento de aterosclerose e doença cardiovascular. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar e caracterizar o perfil lipídico de ácidos gordos de uma amostra de mulheres pós-menopausa e com este, estudar as associações entre o perfil lipídico determinado e parâmetros metabólicos de risco (parâmetros clínicos e bioquímicos). Inicialmente, os ácidos gordos foram extraídos da matriz plasmática através da derivatização destes e a sua composição percentual no plasma foi determinada com recurso a cromatografia gasosa com deteção de ionização de chama. De seguida, através do software IBM SPSS Statistics 21, foram estabelecidas associações entre os parâmetros clínicos e bioquímicos e o perfil lipídico determinado. A população em estudo foi divida em dois grupos consoante o período de entrada na menopausa (há menos de 7 anos e há 7 anos ou mais). Não há conhecimento de estudos semelhantes ao apresentado, que relacionem todo o perfil de ácidos gordos com parâmetros metabólicos de risco considerando o estado menopausal. Os resultados obtidos mostram que o perfil lipídico influencia vários marcadores metabólicos / endócrinos com relevância clínica que devem ser explorados em futuros ensaios clínicos. Para as mulheres na menopausa há menos de 7 anos foram estabelecidas as seguintes relações: i) entre os ácidos gordos saturados e insaturados cis e os níveis de ALP; ii) entre os ácidos gordos mono e polinsaturados cis e os níveis de GGT, IL10 e estradiol; iii) entre os ácidos gordos polinsaturados trans e o IMC e os níveis de IL6; iv) entre os ómegas 3 e os níveis de IL10 e ácido úrico; v) entre os ómegas 6 e os níveis de estradiol, ALP e GGT; vi) entre os ómegas 9 e os níveis de estradiol e GGT; vi) entre os ácidos gordos de curta cadeia e os níveis de colesterol total, LDL, triglicerídeos e IL10; vii) entre os ácidos gordos saturados de cadeia longa e o ΣÁcido láurico, mirístico, palmítico e esteárico e os níveis de triglicerídeos, ALP e GGT; viii) os níveis de IL10 podem ser simultaneamente associados com os ácidos gordos de curta cadeia e os ómegas 3. Para as mulheres na menopausa há 7 anos ou mais foram estabelecidas relações: i) entre os ómegas 3 e o IMC e os níveis de triglicerídeos; ii) entre os ácidos gordos monoinsaturados cis e os ómegas 9 com os níveis de ALT. Relações independentes do estado menopausal também foram estabelecidas, nomeadamente: i) entre os ácidos gordos polinsaturados cis e ómegas 6 e os níveis de ALT, triglicerídeos e AST; ii) entre os níveis de ácidos gordos monoinsaturados cis e ómegas 9 e os níveis de AST e triglicerídeos. O perfil lipídico de ácidos gordos pode ser considerado um biomarcador para a condição de saúde da mulher na menopausa.

The Role of the Humoral Immune Response in the Molecular Evolution of the Envelope C2, V3 and C3 Regions in Chronically HIV-2 Infected Patients

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to investigate, for the first time, the short-term molecular evolution of the HIV-2 C2, V3 and C3 envelope regions and its association with the immune response. Clonal sequences of the env C2V3C3 region were obtained from a cohort of eighteen HIV-2 chronically infected patients followed prospectively during 2-4 years. Genetic diversity, divergence, positive selection and glycosylation in the C2V3C3 region were analysed as a function of the number of CD4+ T cells and the anti-C2V3C3 IgG and IgA antibody reactivity RESULTS: The mean intra-host nucleotide diversity was 2.1% (SD, 1.1%), increasing along the course of infection in most patients. Diversity at the amino acid level was significantly lower for the V3 region and higher for the C2 region. The average divergence rate was 0.014 substitutions/site/year, which is similar to that reported in chronic HIV-1 infection. The number and position of positively selected sites was highly variable, except for codons 267 and 270 in C2 that were under strong and persistent positive selection in most patients. N-glycosylation sites located in C2 and V3 were conserved in all patients along the course of infection. Intra-host variation of C2V3C3-specific IgG response over time was inversely associated with the variation in nucleotide and amino acid diversity of the C2V3C3 region. Variation of the C2V3C3-specific IgA response was inversely associated with variation in the number of N-glycosylation sites. CONCLUSION: The evolutionary dynamics of HIV-2 envelope during chronic aviremic infection is similar to HIV-1 implying that the virus should be actively replicating in cellular compartments. Convergent evolution of N-glycosylation in C2 and V3, and the limited diversification of V3, indicates that there are important functional constraints to the potential diversity of the HIV-2 envelope. C2V3C3-specific IgG antibodies are effective at reducing viral population size limiting the number of virus escape mutants. The C3 region seems to be a target for IgA antibodies and increasing N-linked glycosylation may prevent HIV-2 envelope recognition by these antibodies. Our results provide new insights into the biology of HIV-2 and its relation with the human host and may have important implications for vaccine design.

Ontologies for the interoperability of multiagent electricity markets simulation platforms

Electricity markets worldwide are complex and dynamic environments with very particular characteristics. These are the result of electricity markets’ restructuring and evolution into regional and continental scales, along with the constant changes brought by the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources. The rising complexity and unpredictability in electricity markets has increased the need for the intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. Market players and regulators are very interested in predicting the market’s behaviour. Market players need to understand the market behaviour and operation in order to maximize their profits, while market regulators need to test new rules and detect market inefficiencies before they are implemented. The growth of usage of simulation tools was driven by the need for understanding those mechanisms and how the involved players' interactions affect the markets' outcomes. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyse dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. Several modelling tools directed to the study of restructured wholesale electricity markets have emerged. Still, they have a common limitation: the lack of interoperability between the various systems to allow the exchange of information and knowledge, to test different market models and to allow market players from different systems to interact in common market environments. This dissertation proposes the development and implementation of ontologies for semantic interoperability between multi-agent simulation platforms in the scope of electricity markets. The added value provided to these platforms is given by enabling them sharing their knowledge and market models with other agent societies, which provides the means for an actual improvement in current electricity markets studies and development. The proposed ontologies are implemented in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) and tested through the interaction between MASCEM agents and agents from other multi-agent based simulators. The implementation of the proposed ontologies has also required a complete restructuring of MASCEM’s architecture and multi-agent model, which is also presented in this dissertation. The results achieved in the case studies allow identifying the advantages of the novel architecture of MASCEM, and most importantly, the added value of using the proposed ontologies. They facilitate the integration of independent multi-agent simulators, by providing a way for communications to be understood by heterogeneous agents from the various systems.

Gestão de Redes e Sistemas: Estudo de um caso

A gestão e monitorização de redes é uma necessidade fundamental em qualquer organização, quer seja grande ou pequena. A sua importância tem de ser refletida na eficiência e no aumento de informação útil disponível, contribuindo para uma maior eficácia na realização das tarefas em ambientes tecnologicamente avançados, com elevadas necessidades de desempenho e disponibilidade dos recursos dessa tecnologia. Para alcançar estes objetivos é fundamental possuir as ferramentas de gestão de redes adequadas. Nomeadamente ferramentas de monitorização. A classificação de tráfego também se revela fundamental para garantir a qualidade das comunicações e prevenir ataques indesejados aumentando assim a segurança nas comunicações. Paralelamente, principalmente em organizações grandes, é relevante a inventariação dos equipamentos utilizados numa rede. Neste trabalho pretende-se implementar e colocar em funcionamento um sistema autónomo de monitorização, classificação de protocolos e realização de inventários. Todas estas ferramentas têm como objetivo apoiar os administradores e técnicos de sistemas informáticos. Os estudos das aplicações que melhor se adequam à realidade da organização culminaram num acréscimo de conhecimento e aprendizagem que irão contribuir para um melhor desempenho da rede em que o principal beneficiário será o cidadão.

Analysis of the EEG Dynamics of Epileptic Activity in Gelastic Seizures Using Decomposition in Independent Components

Objective: Gelastic seizures are a frequent and well established manifestation of the epilepsy associated with hypothalamic hamartomas. The scalp EEG recordings very seldom demonstrate clear spike activity and the information about the ictal epilepsy dynamics is limited. In this work, we try to isolate epileptic rhythms in gelastic seizures and study their generators. Methods: We extracted rhythmic activity from EEG scalp recordings of gelastic seizures using decomposition in independent components (ICA) in three patients, two with hypothalamic hamartomas and one with no hypothalamic lesion. Time analysis of these rhythms and inverse source analysis was done to recover their foci of origin and temporal dynamics. Results: In the two patients with hypothalamic hamartomas consistent ictal delta (2–3 Hz) rhythms were present, with subcortical generators in both and a superficial one in a single patient. The latter pattern was observed in the patient with no hypothalamic hamartoma visible in MRI. The deep generators activated earlier than the superficial ones, suggesting a consistent sub-cortical origin of the rhythmical activity. Conclusions: Our data is compatible with early and brief epileptic generators in deep sub-cortical regions and more superficial ones activating later. Significance: Gelastic seizures express rhythms on scalp EEG compatible with epileptic activity originating in sub-cortical generators and secondarily involving cortical ones.

Evolution of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 2 Envelope in the First Years of Infection is Associated with the Dynamics of the Neutralizing Antibody Response

Background: Differently from HIV-1, HIV-2 disease progression usually takes decades without antiretroviral therapy and the majority of HIV-2 infected individuals survive as elite controllers with normal CD4+ T cell counts and low or undetectable plasma viral load. Neutralizing antibodies (Nabs) are thought to play a central role in HIV-2 evolution and pathogenesis. However, the dynamic of the Nab response and resulting HIV-2 escape during acute infection and their impact in HIV-2 evolution and disease progression remain largely unknown. Our objective was to characterize the Nab response and the molecular and phenotypic evolution of HIV-2 in association with Nab escape in the first years of infection in two children infected at birth. Results: CD4+ T cells decreased from about 50% to below 30% in both children in the first five years of infection and the infecting R5 viruses were replaced by X4 viruses within the same period. With antiretroviral therapy, viral load in child 1 decreased to undetectable levels and CD4+ T cells recovered to normal levels, which have been sustained at least until the age of 12. In contrast, viral load increased in child 2 and she progressed to AIDS and death at age 9. Beginning in the first year of life, child 1 raised high titers of antibodies that neutralized primary R5 isolates more effectively than X4 isolates, both autologous and heterologous. Child 2 raised a weak X4-specific Nab response that decreased sharply as disease progressed. Rate of evolution, nucleotide and amino acid diversity, and positive selection, were significantly higher in the envelope of child 1 compared to child 2. Rates of R5-to-X4 tropism switch, of V1 and V3 sequence diversification, and of convergence of V3 to a β-hairpin structure were related with rate of escape from the neutralizing antibodies. Conclusion: Our data suggests that the molecular and phenotypic evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus type 2 envelope are related with the dynamics of the neutralizing antibody response providing further support for a model in which Nabs play an important role in HIV-2 pathogenesis.

Chromosomal structure: a selectable trait for evolution

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Evolutionary Biology

Intron evolution in primates

Dissertation presented to obtain a Ph.D degree in Evolutionary Biology

Intention recognition, commitment and their roles in the evolution of cooperation

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática

Low Socioeconomic Status is an Independent Risk Factor for Survival After Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair and Open Surgery for Peripheral Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: The association between socioeconomic status (SES), presentation, and outcome after vascular surgery is largely unknown. This study aimed to determine the influence of SES on post-operative survival and severity of disease at presentation among vascular surgery patients in the Dutch setting of equal access to and provision of care. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgical treatment for peripheral artery disease (PAD), abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), or carotid artery stenosis between January 2003 and December 2011 were retrospectively included. The association between SES, quantified by household income, disease severity at presentation, and survival was studied using logistic and Cox regression analysis adjusted for demographics, and medical and behavioral risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1,178 patients were included. Low income was associated with worse post-operative survival in the PAD cohort (n = 324, hazard ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.10, per 5,000 Euro decrease) and the AAA cohort (n = 440, quadratic relation, p = .01). AAA patients in the lowest income quartile were more likely to present with a ruptured aneurysm (odds ratio [OR] 2.12, 95% CI 1.08-4.17). Lowest income quartile PAD patients presented more frequently with symptoms of critical limb ischemia, although no significant association could be established (OR 2.02, 95% CI 0.96-4.26). CONCLUSIONS: The increased health hazards observed in this study are caused by patient related factors rather than differences in medical care, considering the equality of care provided by the study setting. Although the exact mechanism driving the association between SES and worse outcome remains elusive, consideration of SES as a risk factor in pre-operative decision making and focus on treatment of known SES related behavioral and psychosocial risk factors may improve the outcome of patients with vascular disease.

Human mucocutaneous leishmaniasis in Três Braços, Bahia - Brazil: an area of Leishmania braziliensis braziliensis transmission. II. Cutaneous disease. Presentation and evolution

The clinical records of 182 patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis probably due to Leishmania braziliensis braziliensis are analysed. 68% had a single lesion which was usually an ulceron the lower anterior tibial third. Many had short histories of one to two months and all age groups were represented 13% had closed lesions of a verrucose or plaque like nature. Evolution of these skin lesions after treatment was related to the regularity of antimony therapy. Although healing usually occurred in three months, the time to scarring after commencing treatment was variable and related to the size ofthe lesion (p < 0.01). Usually if sufficient antimony treatment was given the lesion closed. Seven of the ten patients with initially negative leishmanin skin tests converted to positive after treatment. A significant decline of indirect fluorescent antibody titres occurred in patients followed, during and after therapy.