The Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, June 2005

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

A-1A Supplemental Security Income Program, August 2005

SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME PROGRAM, August 2005

Contribution pollinique à l'étude du pléistocène de la région lémanique (Suisse) : paléoenvironnement des derniers 800'000 ans

Abstact : Pollinic contribution to a Pleistocene study of the Lake Geneva region (Switzerland) Palaeoenvironment of the last 800,000 years. Although the "Plateau Romand" (tableland of French-speaking Switzerland) has been marked by the repetitive action of different Quaternary glacial thrusts, numerous preserved outcrops here and there, thanks to favourable topographical conditions, provide sufficient pollinic content to reconstitute the significant botanical fluctuations and allow bio- and chrono-stratigraphical correlations with the long European sequences. The present study examines around ten Pleistocene deposits rich in pollens, whose presumed ages cover a range of 800,000 years. - The Early and Early-Middle Pleistocene are examined at Ecoteaux (VD), undeniably the oldest site in this study. The "Lower Formation of Ecoteaux", whose low pollinic content reveals an environment of the cold desert type, shows an inverse palaeomagnetic remanence. An age earlier than 780,000 years BP (Matuyama period or earlier) is proposed. The "Upper Formation of Ecoteaux" contains over eight major fluctuations in the vegetal covering, of which at least four temporal phases and one climatic optimum. The presence of botanical genera, relics of the Tertiary in particular Pterocarya and Carya, associated with the vegetal dynamic made up of short oscillations, contrives to link this formation to the Cromerian Complex. The thermomeres recorded could correspond to one or several interglacial periods from Middle Pleistocene. Possible correlations with marine isotopic stages 15, 17 and 19 are discussed. - The Middle and Late Pleistocene is approached through the sediments of Onnens (VD), Creux d'Enfer (FR), Port-Valais (VS), La Dénériaz (VD) and Cortaillod (NE). Each site provides a temperate interglacial flora, whose pollinic content is evaluated according to the different conceivable bio-stratigraphic correlations. - Finally the Würm is studied thanks to the outcrop of Marly (FR), together with the excavations at Villars-sous-Yens (VD), Versoix (GE) and Ollon (VD). Together, these observations tend to show that the west of the Swiss Plateau is a zone of transition between the meridian vegetation of the lower Rhone valley and that of beyond the Jura. At the outlet of the Rhone glacier, and on the borders of the prealpine and Jurassian glaciers, the region is situated at the crossroads of post-glacial botanical migrations, between the major axis of the Rhone valley and the Eastern refuge zones; this situation confers particular importance on it. Although believed to be deeply scraped by ice, one notices today that the "Plateau Romand" harbours overtwenty interglacial and interstadial sites. The abrasive action of the Rhone glacier has thus been more modest than previously estimated. The effective extension of glacial tongues, together with atmospheric circulation, are doubtless varying from one interglacial to another. Finally, the speeds of glacial movements, and the unbelievable vegetal vitality, are important parameters, capable of leading to deposits, very early enriched in pollens. RÉSUMÉS : Contribution pollinique à l'étude du Pléistocène de la région lémanique (Suisse) - Paléoenvironnement des derniers 800'000 ans Bien que le Plateau romand soit marqué par l'action répétitive des différentes poussées glaciaires quaternaires, de nombreux affleurements préservés ça et là, à la faveur de conditions topographiques favorables, livrent un contenu pollinique suffisant pour reconstituer des fluctuations botaniques significatives et autoriser des corrélations bioet chronostratigraphiques avec les longues séquences européennes. Le présent travail étudie une dizaine de dépôts pléistocènes riches en pollens, dont les âges présumés balaient un éventail de plus de 800'000 ans. - Le Pléistocène Ancien et Moyen inférieur, sont examinés à Ecoteaux (VD); indéniablement le site le plus ancien de cette étude. La "Formation inférieure d'Ecoteaux", dont le maigre contenu pollinique traduit un environnement de type désertique froid, présente une rémanence magnétique inverse. Un âge antérieur à 780'000 ans BP (période de Matuyama ou antérieure) est proposé. La "Formation supérieure d'Ecoteaux" comprend plus de huit fluctuations majeures du couvert végétal, parmi lesquelles on compte au moins quatre épisodes tempérés et un optimum climatique. La présence de genres botaniques reliques du Tertiaire, en particulier Pterocarya et Carya, associée à la dynamique végétale faite de courtes oscillations, concourent à lier cette formation au Complexe Cromérien. Les thermomères enregistrées pourraient correspondre à un- ou plusieurs interglaciaires du Pléistocène moyen. Les corrélations possibles avec les stades isotopiques marins, MIS 15, 17 et 19 sont discutées. - Le Pléistocène Moyen et Récent est abordé à travers les sédiments d'Onnens (VD), du Creux d'Enfer (FR), de Port-Valais (VS), de La Dénériaz (VD) et de Cortaillod (NE). Chaque site livre une flore tempérée interglaciaire, dont le contenu pollinique est évalué en fonction des différentes corrélations bio-stratigraphiques envisageables. - Enfin le Würm est étudié grâce à l'affleurement de Marly (FR), accompagné des forages de Villars-sous-Yens (VD), Versoix (GE) et Ollon (VD). L'ensemble de ces observations tend à montrer que l'ouest du Plateau suisse est une zone charnière entre la végétation méridionale de la basse vallée du Rhône et celle d'au-delà du Jura. Au débouché du glacier du Rhône et aux confins des glaciers préalpins et jurassiens, cette région est située au carrefour des migrations botaniques post-glaciaires, entre l'axe majeur de la vallée du Rhône et les zones refuges de l'Est. Cette situation lui confère une importance toute particulière. Alors qu'on pensait le Plateau romand profondément raboté par les glaces, on constate aujourd'hui qu'il recèle plus d'une vingtaine de sites interglaciaires et interstadiaires. L'action abrasive du glacier rhodanien a donc été plus modeste qu'envisagée jusqu'ici. L'extension effective des langues glaciaires, tout comme la circulation atmosphérique, diffèrent sans doute d'un interglaciaire à l'autre. Enfin la vitesse des mouvements glaciaires et l'incroyable vitalité végétale sont des paramètres importants, susceptibles d'avoir entraîné des dépôts, très précocement enrichis en pollens.

The Conservation Reserve Program in the Presence of a Working Land Alternative: Implications for Environmental Quality, Program Participation, and Income Transfer, August 2005

The United States has invested large sums of resources in multiple conservation programs for agriculture over the past century. In this paper we focus on the impacts of program interactions. Specifically, using an integrated economic and bio-physical modeling framework, we consider the impacts of the presence of working land programs on a land retirement for an important agricultural region—the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Compared to a land retirement only program, we find that the presence of a working land program for conservation tillage results in significantly lower predicted signups for land retirement at a given rental rate. We also find that the presence of both a large working land and land retirement program can result in more environmental benefits and income transfers than a land retirement only program can achieve.

Differential contribution of transcription factors to Arabidopsis thaliana defense against Spodoptera littoralis

In response to insect herbivory, Arabidopsis plants activate the synthesis of the phytohor- mone jasmonate-isoleucine, which binds to a complex consisting of the receptor COI1 and JAZ repressors. Upon proteasome-mediated JAZ degradation, basic helix-loop-helix tran- scription factors (TFs) MYC2, MYC3, and MYC4 become activated and this results in the expression of defense genes. Although the jasmonate (JA) pathway is known to be essen- tial for the massive transcriptional reprogramming that follows herbivory, there is however little information on other TFs that are required for defense against herbivores and whether they contribute significantly to JA-dependent defense gene expression. By transcriptome profiling, we identified 41TFs that were induced in response to herbivory by the generalist Spodoptera littoralis. Among them, nine genes, including WRKY18, WRKY40, ANAC019, ANAC055, ZAT10, ZAT12, AZF2, ERF13, and RRTF1, were found to play a significant role in resistance to S. littoralis herbivory. Compared to the triple mutant myc234 that is as sensitive as coi1-1 to herbivory, knockout lines of these nine TFs were only partially more sensitive to S. littoralis but, however, some displayed distinct gene expression changes at the whole-genome level. Data thus reveal that MYC2, MYC3, and MYC4 are master regu- lators of Arabidopsis resistance to a generalist herbivore and identify new genes involved in insect defense.

A-1A Supplemental Security Income Program, September 2005

Supplemental Security Income Program

Social bases of changing income distributions

On the backdrop of very little sociological concern with rising income inequality, this paper examines how key changes in sociodemographic behaviour may help shed additional light on changes in household income distribution and especially on long-term income dynamics and inter-generational mobility. The paper argues that the joint effect of rising marital homogamy in terms of human capital and labour supply contributes generally to widen the income gap between households. Only uner very restrictive conditions, namely when the labour supply of low educated women grows dis-proportionally fast, will women's earnings contribute to more equality. Finally, the paper suggests that women's rising employment commitments contribute positively to equalizing the opportunity structure both via the income effect and if quality care is available, also via more homogenous cultural and cognitive stimulation of children. Mother's work does not generally have adverse effects for children's development.

A-1A Supplemental Security Income Program, October 2005

A-1A - Supplemental Security Income Program - October 2005

A-1A Supplemental Security Income Program, November 2005

A-A1 - Supplemental Security Income Program - November 2005

The contribution of patch topology and demographic parameters to PVA predictions: the case of the European tree frog

Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.

A-1A Supplemental Security Income Program, January 2006

Supplemental Security Income Program January 2006

A-1A Supplemental Security Income Program, December 2005

Supplemental Security Income Program December 2005

A-1A Supplemental Security Income Program, February 2006

Supplemental Security Income Program, February 2006