Inferring identify from DNA profile evidence.

The controversy over the interpretation of DNA profile evidence in forensic identification can be attributed in part to confusion over the mode(s) of statistical inference appropriate to this setting. Although there has been substantial discussion in the literature of, for example, the role of population genetics issues, few authors have made explicit the inferential framework which underpins their arguments. This lack of clarity has led both to unnecessary debates over ill-posed or inappropriate questions and to the neglect of some issues which can have important consequences. We argue that the mode of statistical inference which seems to underlie the arguments of some authors, based on a hypothesis testing framework, is not appropriate for forensic identification. We propose instead a logically coherent framework in which, for example, the roles both of the population genetics issues and of the nonscientific evidence in a case are incorporated. Our analysis highlights several widely held misconceptions in the DNA profiling debate. For example, the profile frequency is not directly relevant to forensic inference. Further, very small match probabilities may in some settings be consistent with acquittal. Although DNA evidence is typically very strong, our analysis of the coherent approach highlights situations which can arise in practice where alternative methods for assessing DNA evidence may be misleading.

The Racial Equality Directive – from law to practice. IES Policy Brief Issue 2013/07/September 2013

The transposition of the Racial Equality Directive (2000/43/EC) has immensely enhanced legal protection against discrimination on the grounds of racial and ethnic origin throughout the EU. More than 10 years after its adoption, the main challenge identified in many Member States is the enforcement of anti-discrimination laws in practice, in particular with regard to access to justice. Ultimately it is up to the domestic courts to ensure effective implementation of anti-discrimination law. Polls regularly show that the discrepancy between the levels of discrimination experienced and discrimination reported by victims must be seriously addressed. Awareness is low not only among the public but also among the members of the legal professions, leading to under-reporting of discrimination cases. In addition, data that reflect the ethnic or racial composition of the population are scarce which makes it difficult to prove discrimination before the competent authorities. Moreover, certain procedural difficulties that affect access to justice and effective enforcement also stem from the short limitation periods foreseen in legislation, lengthy procedures, evidence, high costs and failures in the provision of legal aid, ineffective sanctions, as well as barriers in the form of language and issues relating to legal standing or legitimate interest. The law remains complex and remedies often inadequate.

The New Silk Road: a versatile instrument in China’s policy. OSW Commentary No. 161, February 10 2015

Introduction. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping presented the concept of the New Silk Road – a collection of land and maritime routes – in autumn 2013. Initially, it envisaged the creation of a network of infrastructural connections, mainly transport corridors, between China and its most important economic partner – Europe. The concept grew in importance throughout 2014 to become the key instrument of China’s foreign policy, especially in the areas of public diplomacy and soft power. Towards the end of 2014, the Chinese government announced it would establish a Silk Road Fund worth US$40 billion. The New Silk Road idea is a flexible formula used by China in its dialogue with many other countries. Its inclusive nature helps contribute to diluting the negative impression caused by China’s rapid economic expansion and assertiveness in foreign policy, especially with regard to its neighbours. The process of implementing the New Silk Road concept will allow China to expand its influence within its neighbourhood: in Central and South-Eastern Asia. The New Silk Road will be an alternative point of reference to the US dominance and Russian integration projects in these regions. The concept will legitimise and facilitate the growth of China’s influence in the transit countries on the route to Western Europe, i.e. in the Middle East (Arab countries, Israel and Turkey, the Horn of Africa and Central Europe (the Balkans and the Visegrad Group countries). This concept is also essential for China’s domestic policy. It has become one of Xi Jinping’s main political projects. It will boost the development of China’s central and western provinces. The fact that the concept is open and not fully defined means that it will be a success regardless of the extent to which it will be implemented in practice. Its flexible nature allows China to continue investments already initiated bilaterally and to present them as components of the New Silk Road concept.

Can group exercise programs improve health outcomes in pregnant women? A systematic review

Current scientific evidence supports the recommendation to initiate or continue the practice of physical exercise in healthy pregnant women. Group exercise programs have positive effects in improving health and well-being, as well as social support. In order to understand the scientific evidence in this field, and the outcomes in maternal health, it has generated wide interest in exploring the studies carried out with more relevant group exercise programs. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the available evidence on the effectiveness of group exercise programs in improving women’s and newborns health outcomes during pregnancy. Three databases were used to conduct literature searches and strict inclusion and exclusion criteria were employed. Seventeen studies were selected for analysis. All studies were randomized control trials conducted with pregnant women that evaluated the effect of group exercise programs on the health outcomes of mother and newborn. Most studies followed a supervised structured exercise program including a main aerobic part, resistance training, pelvic floor training and stretching and relaxation sections. The significant effects of the programs are related with improved maternal perception of health status, lower maternal weight gain, improved levels of maternal glucose tolerance, improved aerobic fitness and muscular strength, lower frequency of urinary incontinence, improved sick leave due to lumbopelvic pain, fewer cesarean and instrumental deliveries, higher newborn Apgar score and faster postpartum recovery. Exercise and health professionals should advise pregnant women that aerobic group exercise during pregnancy improves a wide range of health outcomes for the women and newborn

Towards Automation in Digital Investigations : Seeking Efficiency in Digital Forensics in Mobile and Cloud Environments

Cybercrime and related malicious activity in our increasingly digital world has become more prevalent and sophisticated, evading traditional security mechanisms. Digital forensics has been proposed to help investigate, understand and eventually mitigate such attacks. The practice of digital forensics, however, is still fraught with various challenges. Some of the most prominent of these challenges include the increasing amounts of data and the diversity of digital evidence sources appearing in digital investigations. Mobile devices and cloud infrastructures are an interesting specimen, as they inherently exhibit these challenging circumstances and are becoming more prevalent in digital investigations today. Additionally they embody further characteristics such as large volumes of data from multiple sources, dynamic sharing of resources, limited individual device capabilities and the presence of sensitive data. These combined set of circumstances make digital investigations in mobile and cloud environments particularly challenging. This is not aided by the fact that digital forensics today still involves manual, time consuming tasks within the processes of identifying evidence, performing evidence acquisition and correlating multiple diverse sources of evidence in the analysis phase. Furthermore, industry standard tools developed are largely evidence-oriented, have limited support for evidence integration and only automate certain precursory tasks, such as indexing and text searching. In this study, efficiency, in the form of reducing the time and human labour effort expended, is sought after in digital investigations in highly networked environments through the automation of certain activities in the digital forensic process. To this end requirements are outlined and an architecture designed for an automated system that performs digital forensics in highly networked mobile and cloud environments. Part of the remote evidence acquisition activity of this architecture is built and tested on several mobile devices in terms of speed and reliability. A method for integrating multiple diverse evidence sources in an automated manner, supporting correlation and automated reasoning is developed and tested. Finally the proposed architecture is reviewed and enhancements proposed in order to further automate the architecture by introducing decentralization particularly within the storage and processing functionality. This decentralization also improves machine to machine communication supporting several digital investigation processes enabled by the architecture through harnessing the properties of various peer-to-peer overlays. Remote evidence acquisition helps to improve the efficiency (time and effort involved) in digital investigations by removing the need for proximity to the evidence. Experiments show that a single TCP connection client-server paradigm does not offer the required scalability and reliability for remote evidence acquisition and that a multi-TCP connection paradigm is required. The automated integration, correlation and reasoning on multiple diverse evidence sources demonstrated in the experiments improves speed and reduces the human effort needed in the analysis phase by removing the need for time-consuming manual correlation. Finally, informed by published scientific literature, the proposed enhancements for further decentralizing the Live Evidence Information Aggregator (LEIA) architecture offer a platform for increased machine-to-machine communication thereby enabling automation and reducing the need for manual human intervention.

Vocational rehabilitation in psychiatry: A re-evaluation

Objective: To highlight the vocational gap in the provision of psychiatric rehabilitation, to outline the goals and conceptual framework of psychiatric rehabilitation, and to discuss rehabilitation interventions with specific reference to vocational rehabilitation and the evidence base for supported employment. Conclusions and service implications: Vocational psychiatric rehabilitation has been a neglected area of practice in Australian psychiatry. Psychiatric treatment needs to adopt a more balanced approach in the provision of a range of services, including vocational rehabilitation, in order to improve long-term outcomes for people suffering from psychiatric disability. A vocational focus should be included in psychiatric rehabilitation and better integration between mental health services and vocational services needs to take place. Supported employment is an evidence-based practice that is designed to help people with psychiatric disabilities participate as much as possible in the competitive job market.

Using clinical indicators in a quality improvement programme targeting cardiac care

Rationale. The Brisbane Cardiac Consortium, a quality improvement collaboration of clinicians from three hospitals and five divisions of general practice, developed and reported clinical indicators as measures of the quality of care received by patients with acute coronary syndromes or congestive heart failure. Development of indicators. An expert panel derived indicators that measured gaps between evidence and practice. Data collected from hospital records and general practice heart-check forms were used to calculate process and outcome indicators for each condition. Our indicators were reliable (kappa scores 0.7-1.0) and widely accepted by clinicians as having face validity. Independent review of indicator-failed, in-hospital cases revealed that, for 27 of 28 process indicators, clinically legitimate reasons for withholding specific interventions were found in

Building family/general practice research capacity

To promote the range of interventions for building family/general practice (family medicine) research capacity, we describe successful international examples. Such examples of interventions that build research capacity focus on diseases and illness research, as well as process research; monitor the output of research in family/general practice (family medicine); increase the number of family medicine research journals; encourage and enable research skills acquisition (including making it part of professional training); strengthen the academic base; and promote research networks and collaborations. The responsibility for these interventions lies with the government, colleges and academies, and universities. There are exciting and varied methods of building research capacity in family medicine.

Appraising the quality of randomized controlled trials: inter-rater reliability for the OTseeker evidence database

Rationale and aims 'OTseeker' is an online database of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews relevant to occupational therapy. RCTs are critically appraised and rated for quality using the 'PEDro' scale. We aimed to investigate the inter-rater reliability of the PEDro scale before and after revising rating guidelines. Methods In study 1, five raters scored 100 RCTs using the original PEDro scale guidelines. In study 2, two raters scored 40 different RCTs using revised guidelines. All RCTs were randomly selected from the OTseeker database. Reliability was calculated using Kappa and intraclass correlation coefficients [ICC (model 2,1)]. Results Inter-rater reliability was 'good to excellent' in the first study (Kappas >= 0.53; ICCs >= 0.71). After revising the rating guidelines, the reliability levels were equivalent or higher to those previously obtained (Kappas >= 0.53; ICCs >= 0.89), except for the item, 'groups similar at baseline', which still had moderate reliability (Kappa = 0.53). In study 2, two PEDro scale items, which had their definitions revised, 'less than 15% dropout' and 'point measures and variability', showed higher reliability. In both studies, the PEDro items with the lowest reliability were 'groups similar at baseline' (Kappas = 0.53), 'less than 15% dropout' (Kappas

The effect of music on preoperative anxiety in day surgery

Aim. This paper reports a study to test the hypothesis that day surgery patients who listen to music during their preoperative wait will have statistically significantly lower levels of anxiety than patients who receive routine care. Background. Although previous day surgery research suggests that music effectively reduces preoperative anxiety, methodological issues limit the generalizability of results. Methods. In early 2004, a randomized controlled trial design was conducted to assess anxiety before and after listening to patient preferred music. Participants were allocated to an intervention (n = 60), placebo (n = 60) or control group (n = 60). Pre- and post-test measures of anxiety were carried out using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Results. Music statistically significantly reduced the state anxiety level of the music (intervention) group. No relationships were found between socio-demographic or clinical variables such as gender or type of surgery. Conclusion. The findings support the use of music as an independent nursing intervention for preoperative anxiety in patients having day surgery.