Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Sequential increase in Egr-1 and AP-1 DNA binding activity in the dentate gyrus following the induction of long-term potentiation

Establishment of long-term potentiation (LTP) at perforant path synapses is highly correlated with increased expression of Egr and AP-1 transcription factors in rat dentate gyrus granule cells. We have investigated whether increased transcription factor levels are reflected in increased transcription factor activity by assessing Egr and AP-I DNA binding activity using gel shift assays. LTP produced an increase in binding to the Egr element, which was NMDA receptor-dependent and correlated closely with our previously reported increase in Egr-1 (zif/268) protein levels. Supershift analysis confirmed involvement of Egr-1, but not Egr-2 in the DNA binding activity. AP-1 DNA binding was also rapidly elevated in parallel with protein levels, however, the peak increase in activity was delayed until 4 h, a time point when we have previously shown that only jun-D protein was elevated. These data indicate that binding of Egr-1 and AP-1 to their response elements is increased in two phases. This may result in activation of distinct banks of target genes which contribute to the establishment of persistent LTP. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationships among climate, latitude and migration: Australian butterflies are not temperate-zone birds

We examined the distribution of butterflies over the mostly arid and semi-arid continent of Australia and analyzed the proportion of migrant species and species diversity with respect to an array of climatic and geographic variables. On a continent-wide scale, latitude explained virtually no variance in either proportion of migrants (r(2) = 0.01) or species diversity (r(2) = 0.03) in Australian butterflies. These results are in marked contrast to those for temperate-zone birds from three continents where latitude explained between 82 and 98% of the variance in frequency of migrants and also accounted for much of the variance in bird species diversity. In eastern Australia where rainfall regimes are similar to those in temperate Europe and North and South America, latitude explains 78% of the variance in frequency of butterfly migrants. In both eastern and central Australia, latitude also accounts for relatively high proportions of the variance in species diversity. Rainfall patterns and especially soil moisture are negatively associated with migration frequency in Australian butterfly faunas, both alone and in combination with other climate variables. Where moisture levels are relatively high, as in eastern Australia, measures of temperature are associated with migration frequency, a result consistent with findings for temperate-zone birds, suggesting latitude is a surrogate for temperature. The ultimate causes of migration in temperate-zone birds and Australian butterflies are the uneven temporal, and in Australia also spatial, distribution of resources. Uneven distribution is brought about primarily by temperature in temperate regions and by erratic rainfall over much of arid Australia. As a key determinant of productivity, especially in the tropics and subtropics, aridity is likely to be an important determinant of the global distributions of migrants.

Hybrid modelling of coupled pore fluid-solid deformation problems

A hybrid formulation for coupled pore fluid-solid deformation problems is proposed. The scheme is a hybrid in the sense that we use a vertex centered finite volume formulation for the analysis of the pore fluid and a particle method for the solid in our model. The pore fluid formally occupies the same space as the solid particles. The size of the particles is not necessarily equal to the physical size of materials. A finite volume mesh for the pore fluid flow is generated by Delaunay triangulation. Each triangle possesses an initial porosity. Changes of the porosity are specified by the translations of the mass centers of particles. Net pore pressure gradients are applied to the particle centers and are considered in the particle momentum balance. The potential of our model is illustrated by means of a simulation of coupled fracture and fluid flow developed in porous rock under biaxial compression condition.

Long-distance signalling and a mutational analysis of branching in pea

Four ramosus mutants with increased branching at basal and aerial nodes have been used to investigate the genetic regulation of bud outgrowth in Pisum sativum L. (garden pea). Studies of long-distance signalling, xylem sap cytokinin concentrations, shoot auxin level, auxin transport and auxin response are discussed. A model of branching control is presented that encompasses two graft-transmissible signals in addition to auxin and cytokinin. Mutants rms1 through rms4 are not deficient in indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) or in the basipetal transport of this hormone. Three of the four mutants, rms1, rms3 and rms4, have very reduced cytokinin concentrations in xylem sap from roots. This reduction in xylem sap cytokinin concentration appears to be caused by a property of the shoot and may be part of a feedback mechanism induced by an aspect of bud outgrowth. The shoot-to-root feedback signal is unlikely to be auxin itself, as auxin levels and transport are not correlated with xylem sap cytokinin concentrations in various intact and grafted mutant and wild-type plants. Rms1 and Rms2 act in shoot and rootstock to regulate the level or transport of graft-transmissible signals. Various grafting studies and double mutant analyses have associated Rms2 with the regulation of the shoot-to-root feedback signal. Rms1 is associated with a second unknown graft-transmissible signal that is postulated to move in the direction of root-to-shoot. Exogenous auxin appears to interact with both of the signals regulated by Rms1 and Rms2 in the inhibition of branching after decapitation. The action of Rms3 and Rms4 is less apparent at this stage, although both appear to act largely in the shoot.

Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

Long-term quantification of the release of monomers from dental resin composites and a resin-modified glass ionomer cement

This study quantified the release of monomers from polymerized specimens of four commercially available resin composites and one glass ionomer cement immersed in water:ethanol solutions. Individual standard curves were prepared from five monomers: (1) triethylene glycol dimethacrylate (TEGDMA), (2) 2-hydroxy-ethyl methacrylate (HEMA), (3) urethane dimethacrylate (UDMA), (4) bisphenol A glycidyl dimethacrylate (BISGMA), and (5) bisphenol A. The concentration of the monomers was determined at Days 1, 7, 30, and 90 with the use of electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry. Data were expressed in mean mumol per mm(2) surface area of specimen and analyzed with Scheffe's test (P < 0.05). The following monomers were found in water: monomers (1) and (2) from Delton sealant, monomer (5) from ScotchBond Multipurpose Adhesive and Delton sealant, monomer (3) from Definite and monomer (4) from Fuji II LC, ScotchBond Multipurpose Adhesive, Synergy and Definite. All these monomers increased in concentration over time, with the exception of monomer (1) from Delton sealant. Monomers (3) and (5) were found in extracts of materials despite their absence from the manufacturer's published composition. All monomers were released in significantly higher concentrations in water:ethanol solutions than in water. The greatest release of monomers occurred in the first day. The effect of the measured concentrations of monomers (1-5) on human genes, cells, or tissues needs to be considered with the use of a biological model. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cyanogenic polymorphism in Eucalyptus polyanthemos Schauer subsp vestita L. Johnson and K. Hill (Myrtaceae)

Plant cyanogenesis, the release of cyanide from endogenous cyanide-containing compounds, is an effective herbivore deterrent. This paper characterises cyanogenesis in the Australian tree Eucalyptus polyanthemos Schauer subsp. vestita L. Johnson and K. Hill for the first time. The cyanogenic glucoside prunasin ((R)-mandelonitrile beta-D-glucoside) was determined to be the only cyanogenic compound in E. polyanthemos foliage. Two natural populations of E. polyanthernos showed quantitative variation in foliar prumasin concentration, varying from zero (i.e. acyanogenic) to 2.07 mg CN g(-1) dry weight in one population and from 0.17 to 1.98 mg CN g(-1) dry weight in the other. No significant difference was detected between the populations with respect to the mean prunasin concentration or the degree of variation in foliar prunasin, despite significant differences in foliar nitrogen. Variation between individuals was also observed with respect to the capacity of foliage to catabolise prunasin to form cyanide. Moreover, variation in this capacity generally correlated with the amount of prunasin in the tissue, suggesting genetic linkage between prunasin and beta-glucosidase. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality and recurrent cardiac events after coronary artery bypass graft: long term outcomes in a population study

Objective: To determine 30 day mortality, long term survival, and recurrent cardiac events after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in a population. Design: Follow up study of patients prospectively entered on to a cardiothoracic surgical database. Record linkages were used to obtain data on readmissions and deaths. Patients: 8910 patients undergoing isolated first CABG between 1980 and 1993 in Western Australia. Main outcome measures: 30 day and long term survival, readmission for cardiac event (acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or reoperative CABG). Results: There were 3072 deaths to mid 1999. 30 day and long term survival were significantly better in patients treated in the first five years than during the following decade. The age of the patients, proportion of female patients, and number of grafts increased over time. An urgent procedure (odds ratio 3.3), older age (9% per year) and female sex (odds ratio 1.5) were associated with increased risk for 30 day mortality, while age (7% per year) and a recent myocardial infarction (odds ratio 1.16) influenced long term survival. Internal mammary artery grafts were followed by better short and long term survival, though there was an obvious selection bias in favour of younger male patients. Conclusions: This study shows worsening crude mortality at 30 days after CABG from the mid 1980s, associated with the inclusion of higher risk patients. Older age, an acute myocardial infarction in the year before surgery, and the use of sephenous vein grafts only were associated with poorer long term survival and greater risk of a recurrent cardiac event. Female sex predicted recurrent events but not long term survival.

Hybrid auctions

In this paper we analyze a hybrid auction that combines a first-price and a Vickrey auction. We show that this auction may generate more expected revenue than a standard first-price auction. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.