A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Thermal ecology and structural habitat use of two sympatric lizards (Carlia vivax and Lygisaurus foliorum) in subtropical Australia

The thermal ecology and structural habitat use of two closely related sympatric lizards, Carlia vivax (de Vis) and Lygisaurus foliorum de Vis, were examined in an open sclerophyll forest in subtropical Australia. Comparable mean body temperatures (T-b) and habitat temperatures (T-hab) at the point of capture were recorded for both species. However, sex- related differences in the thermal variables for C. vivax, with females displaying higher temperatures than males, resulted in some significant differences in T-b and T-hab between the species. Variation in T-b and T-hab within and between species was unrelated to time of capture. The difference in T-hab within C. vivax suggested that females were selecting warmer thermal environments than males. Both C. vivax and L. foliorum used most structural features of their habitat randomly as indicated by a similarity in canopy, shrub, ground, log and litter cover and litter depth between habitat surveys and random surveys. However, C. vivax displayed a preference for ground vegetation (height

The large-scale distribution of neutral hydrogen in the Fornax region

Using data from the H I Parkes All Sky Survey (HIPASS), we have searched for neutral hydrogen in galaxies in a region similar to25x25 deg(2) centred on NGC 1399, the nominal centre of the Fornax cluster. Within a velocity search range of 300-3700 km s(-1) and to a 3sigma lower flux limit of similar to40 mJy, 110 galaxies with H I emission were detected, one of which is previously uncatalogued. None of the detections has early-type morphology. Previously unknown velocities for 14 galaxies have been determined, with a further four velocity measurements being significantly dissimilar to published values. Identification of an optical counterpart is relatively unambiguous for more than similar to90 per cent of our H I galaxies. The galaxies appear to be embedded in a sheet at the cluster velocity which extends for more than 30degrees across the search area. At the nominal cluster distance of similar to20 Mpc, this corresponds to an elongated structure more than 10 Mpc in extent. A velocity gradient across the structure is detected, with radial velocities increasing by similar to500 km s(-1) from south-east to north-west. The clustering of galaxies evident in optical surveys is only weakly suggested in the spatial distribution of our H I detections. Of 62 H I detections within a 10degrees projected radius of the cluster centre, only two are within the core region (projected radius

A technological and organisational explanation for the size distribution of firms

This paper combines insights from the literature on the economics of organisation with traditional models of market structure to construct a theory of equilibrium firm size heterogeneity under the assumption of a homogenous product industry. It is possible that configurations consisting entirely of small firms (run by entrepreneurs with limited attention) and with larger firms (using managerial techniques to substitute away these limits to allow increasing returns technologies to become profitable) can arise in equilibrium. However, there also exist equilibrium configurations with the co-existence of large and small firms. The efficiency properties of these respective equilibria are discussed. Finally, the implications of an expanding market size are considered.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Sequence analysis, chromosomal distribution and long-range organization show that rapid turnover of new and old pBuM satellite DNA repeats leads to different patterns of variation in seven species of the Drosophila buzzatii cluster

We aimed to study patterns of variation and factors influencing the evolutionary dynamics of a satellite DNA, pBuM, in all seven Drosophila species from the buzzatii cluster (repleta group). We analyzed 117 alpha pBuM-1 (monomer length 190 bp) and 119 composite alpha/beta (370 bp) pBuM-2 repeats and determined the chromosome location and long-range organization on DNA fibers of major sequence variants. Such combined methodologies in the study of satDNAs have been used in very few organisms. In most species, concerted evolution is linked to high copy number of pBuM repeats. Species presenting low-abundance and scattered distributed pBuM repeats did not undergo concerted evolution and maintained part of the ancestral inter-repeat variability. The alpha and alpha/beta repeats colocalized in heterochromatic regions and were distributed on multiple chromosomes, with notable differences between species. High-resolution FISH revealed array sizes of a few kilobases to over 0.7 Mb and mutual arrangements of alpha and alpha/beta repeats along the same DNA fibers, but with considerable changes in the amount of each variant across species. From sequence, chromosomal and phylogenetic data, we could infer that homogenization and amplification events involved both new and ancestral pBuM variants. Altogether, the data on the structure and organization of the pBuM satDNA give insights into genome evolution including mechanisms that contribute to concerted evolution and diversification.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Population demography and spatial distribution of the mantis shrimp Squilla biformis (Stomatopoda, Squillidae) from Pacific Costa Rica

The mantis shrimp Squilla biformis is the most conspicuous and abundant stomatopod captured during benthic trawling operations off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. Due to its abundance, this species is considered a potential fisheries resource for the region. Nevertheless, its life history is practically unknown. The present study describes the population demography, spatial distribution and behaviour of S. biformis from Pacific Costa Rica. The population was principally composed of individuals between 20 and 32 mm carapace length (CL), forming 2 age groups. Individuals of 35 to 45 mm CL and > 45 mm CL were poorly represented. We assume that larger individuals are more frequent at greater depths (probably on the continental slope), thus out of the reach of the fishing vessels used in our study. Males outnumbered females, as observed in other stomatopods. Visual evidence of their behaviour demonstrates that the adults in this species possess a benthic and pelagic life style. Largest numbers of individuals (50% of the total) were found between 240 to 260 m, the same bathymetric range that was historically occupied by commercial shrimps. This shift may be related to intense fishing activities. We observed a synchronized moulting of females and males during less luminous (third and fourth) lunar phases. The evolutionary development of a group moulting system could confer advantages to S. biformis in comparison to other stomatopods whose moulting process is individual and asynchronous.

The nymph of Tortopus harrisi Traver (Ephemeroptera: Polymitarcyidae)

Polymitarcyidae is a family of burrowing mayflies (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeroidea) distributed throughout the world but with highest diversity in the Neotropics. Tortopus Needham & Murphy, with a Panamerican distribution, is known from twelve species described in the adult stage. Nymphs are only known for three species: T. puella (Pictet), T. obscuripennis Dominguez and T. sarae Dominguez, and present a rather homogeneous morphology (Molineri 2008). They were firstly described for T. puella by Scott et al. (1959) and later Molineri (2008) described the other two. Both studies reported that these species burrow U-shaped tunnels in clay banks of rivers and streams, thus preventing them from being sampled in most limnological studies (that use surbers, drags, or drift nets). The aim of the present contribution is to describe and illustrate the previously unknown nymph of Tortopus harrisi Traver that shows important anatomical differences with the other nymphs known in the genus. This morphological differentiation suggests a different habitat use by these nymphs, sampled with drag and surber samplers in sandy substrate. New locality records are given for T. harrisi in Brazil. The nymphs are preserved in alcohol, mouthparts, legs and genital rudiments were mounted in microscope slides with Canada Balsam. Drawings were made with a camera lucida attached to a stereo microscope. The material is deposited in CUIC (Cornell University Insect Collection, Ithaca, NY), IML (Instituto Miguel Lillo, Tucuman) and in MZSP (Museu de Zoologia da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo). Catalogs and bibliography were consulted at Ephemeroptera Galactica (Hubbard 2009).

The states, diffusion, and concentration distribution of water in radiation-formed PVA/PVP hydrogels

Hydrogels with various compositions of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and poly(1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidinone) (PVP) were prepared by irradiating mixtures of PVA and PVP in aqueous solutions with gamma-rays from Co-60 sources at room temperature. The states of water in the hydrogels were characterized using DSC and NMR T-2 relaxation measurements and the kinetics of water diffusion in the hydrogels were studied by sorption experiments and NMR imaging. The DSC endothermic peaks in the temperature range -10 to +10 degrees C implied that there are at least two kinds of freezable water present in the matrix. The difference between the total water content and the freezable water content was refer-red to as bound water, which is not freezable. The weight fraction of water at which only nonfreezable water is present in a hydrogel with F-VP = 0.19 has been estimated to be g(H2O)/g(Polymer) = 0.375. From water sorption experiments, it was demonstrated that the early stage of the diffusion of water into the hydrogels was Fickian. A curve-fit of the early-stage experimental data to the Fickian model allowed determination of the water diffusion coefficient, which was found to lie between 1.5 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1) and 4.5 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1), depending on the polymer composition, the cross-link density, and the temperature. It was also found that the energy barrier for diffusion of water molecules into PVA/PVP hydrogels was approximate to 24 kJ mol(-1). Additionally, the diffusion coefficients determined from NMR imaging of the volumetric swelling of the gels agreed well with the results obtained by the mass sorption method.

Geographic call variation and further notes on habitat of Ameerega flavopicta (Anura, Dendrobatidae)

We describe habitat and inter-populational call variation of the dendrobatid frog Ameerega flavopicta. Data were collected in the Brazilian states ofminas Gerais and Goias. Principal component analysis separated the Goias population from others because of its higher call rates and shorter calls. The Paranaiba Rivermay represent themajor geographic barrier. We recognize the cephalic amplexus as themain type for the species. Although habitat disturbances increased since 1990, we did not notice differences in the density of callingmales at Serra do Cipo. Ameerega flavopicta appears to be quite resistant to alterations in its natural habitats caused by human activities.

Soil mineral genesis and distribution in a saline lake landscape of the Pantanal Wetland, Brazil

The origin of the saline lakes in the Pantanal wetland has been classically attributed to processes occurring in past periods. However, recent studies have suggested that saline water is currently forming from evaporative concentration of fresh water, which is provided annually by seasonal floods. Major elements (Ca, Mg, K) and alkalinity appear to be geochemically controlled during the concentration of waters and may be involved in the formation of carbonates and clay minerals around the saline lakes. The mineralogy of soils associated with a representative saline lake was investigated using XRD, TEM-EDS, and ICP-MS in order to identify the composition and genesis of the secondary minerals suspected to be involved in the control of major elements. The results showed that Ca, Mg, and K effectively undergo oversaturation and precipitation as the waters become more saline. These elements are incorporated in the authigenically formed carbonates, smectites, and micas surrounding the saline lake. The control of Ca occurs by precipitation of calcite and dolomite in nodules while Mg and K are mainly involved in the neoformation of Mg-smectites (stevensitic and saponitic minerals) and, probably, iron-enriched micas (ferric-illite) in surface and subsurface horizons. Therefore, our study confirms that the salinity of Pantanal, historically attributed to inheritance from former regimes, has a contribution of current processes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incidence and distribution of viruses of Taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Pacific Island countries

Four viruses have been reported from taro; Dasheen mosaic virus (DsMV), Taro bacilliform virus (TaBV) and two putative rhabdoviruses, Colocasia bobone disease virus (CBDV) and Taro vein chlorosis virus (TaVCV). A fifth virus, tentatively named Taro reovirus (TaRV), has also been recently identified. The distribution of these viruses throughout the Pacific Islands, and the symptoms associated with their infection, are unknown in many cases due to a lack of sensitive diagnostic tests. We have used recently developed PCR-based diagnostic tests to survey taro growing in 11 Pacific Island countries for the presence of known viruses. DsMV and TaBV were widespread, whereas TaVCV and TaRV were more restricted in their distribution. CBDV was restricted to PNG and Solomon Islands and was always associated with the two most serious viral diseases of taro; alomae disease and bobone disease, but the causal agent of these two diseases remains unclear.