Paper 4: EUROCAT statistical monitoring: identification and investigation of ten year trends of congenital anomalies in Europe.

BACKGROUND: As part of EUROCAT's surveillance of congenital anomalies in Europe, a statistical monitoring system has been developed to detect recent clusters or long-term (10 year) time trends. The purpose of this article is to describe the system for the identification and investigation of 10-year time trends, conceived as a "screening" tool ultimately leading to the identification of trends which may be due to changing teratogenic factors.METHODS: The EUROCAT database consists of all cases of congenital anomalies including livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestational age, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Monitoring of 10-year trends is performed for each registry for each of 96 non-independent EUROCAT congenital anomaly subgroups, while Pan-Europe analysis combines data from all registries. The monitoring results are reviewed, prioritized according to a prioritization strategy, and communicated to registries for investigation. Twenty-one registries covering over 4 million births, from 1999 to 2008, were included in monitoring in 2010.CONCLUSIONS: Significant increasing trends were detected for abdominal wall anomalies, gastroschisis, hypospadias, Trisomy 18 and renal dysplasia in the Pan-Europe analysis while 68 increasing trends were identified in individual registries. A decreasing trend was detected in over one-third of anomaly subgroups in the Pan-Europe analysis, and 16.9% of individual registry tests. Registry preliminary investigations indicated that many trends are due to changes in data quality, ascertainment, screening, or diagnostic methods. Some trends are inevitably chance phenomena related to multiple testing, while others seem to represent real and continuing change needing further investigation and response by regional/national public health authorities.

Declining labor force attachment and downward trends in unemployment and participation

The US labor market witnessed two apparently unrelated secular movements in thelast 30 years: a decline in unemployment between the early 1980s and the early 2000s,and a decline in participation since the early 2000s. Using CPS micro data and a stock-flow accounting framework, we show that a substantial, and hitherto unnoticed, factorbehind both trends is a decline in the share of nonparticipants who are at the margin ofparticipation. A lower share of marginal nonparticipants implies a lower unemploymentrate, because marginal nonparticipants enter the labor force mostly through unemployment,while other nonparticipants enter the labor force mostly through employment.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Measures of health and disease in Africa: are current methods giving us useful information about trends in cardiovascular diseases?

An enormous burst of interest in the public health burden from chronic disease in Africa has emerged as a consequence of efforts to estimate global population health. Detailed estimates are now published for Africa as a whole and each country on the continent. These data have formed the basis for warnings about sharp increases in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the coming decades. In this essay we briefly examine the trajectory of social development on the continent and its consequences for the epidemiology of CVD and potential control strategies. Since full vital registration has only been implemented in segments of South Africa and the island nations of Seychelles and Mauritius - formally part of WHO-AFRO - mortality data are extremely limited. Numerous sample surveys have been conducted but they often lack standardization or objective measures of health status. Trend data are even less informative. However, using the best quality data available, age-standardized trends in CVD are downward, and in the case of stroke, sharply so. While acknowledging that the extremely limited available data cannot be used as the basis for inference to the continent, we raise the concern that general estimates based on imputation to fill in the missing mortality tables may be even more misleading. No immediate remedies to this problem can be identified, however bilateral collaborative efforts to strength local educational institutions and governmental agencies rank as the highest priority for near term development.

La diversidad cultural en Google y los motores de búsqueda: una aproximación conceptual

Se analiza una preocupación expresada tanto de forma implícita como explícita en diversos ámbitos, según la cual los motores de búsqueda en general y Google en particular, podrían estar utilizando algún sistema para ocultar determinados contenidos culturales o bien para destacar aquellos que proceden del ámbito anglosajón en detrimento de los de otras culturas y lenguas. Dicho de otro modo, se considera, en una primera aproximación de modo exclusivamente conceptual, la idea de si el uso intensivo de los motores de búsqueda, tan característico de nuestro tiempo, resulta una amenaza para la diversidad cultural. Para ello, en primer lugar y con el fin de contextualizar este trabajo, se lleva a cabo una presentación de dos polémicas previas sobre el dilema proteccionismo o libre flujo de los productos culturales y a continuación se analizan las características más relevantes de los motores de búsqueda (centrándonos en Google en particular) con el fin de valorar si éstos constituyen una amenaza creíble a la diversidad cultural e idiomática de la Web.

Trends in food availability in Switzerland, 1961-2007.

Trends in food availability in Switzerland were assessed using the Food and Agricultural Organization food balance sheets for the period 1961-2007. A relatively stable trend in the daily caloric supply was found: 3545 kcal/day in 1961 and 3465 kcal/day in 2007. Calories associated with carbohydrates decreased (slope±s.e.: -1.1±0.2 kcal/day/year), namely regarding cereals (-2.9±0.6 kcal/day/year) and fruit (-1.5±0.1 kcal/day/year), while the availability of sugars increased (1.2±0.5 kcal/day/year). In 1961, protein, fat, carbohydrates and alcohol represented 10.6, 33.5, 50.0 and 5.9% of total caloric supply, respectively; in 2007, the values were 10.8, 40.3, 43.7 and 5.2%. In 1961, palm, groundnut and sunflowerseed oil represented 3.4, 30.7 and 5.3% of total vegetable oils, respectively; in 2007, the values were 10.4, 3.7 and 31.6%. We conclude that between 1961 and 2007 total caloric availability remained relatively stable in Switzerland; the health effects of the increased and differing fat availability should be evaluated.

Trends in the association between height and socioeconomic indicators in France, 1970-2003

Average physical stature has increased dramatically during the 20th century in many populations across the world with few exceptions. It remains unclear if social inequalities in height persist despite improvements in living standards in the welfare economies of Western Europe. We examined trends in the association between height and socioeconomic indicators in adults over three decades in France. The data were drawn from the French Decennial Health Surveys: a multistage, stratified, random survey of households, representative of the population, conducted in 1970, 1980, 1991, and 2003. We categorised age into 10-year bands, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years. Education and income were the two socioeconomic measures used. The slope index of inequality (SII) was used as a summary index of absolute social inequalities in height. The results show that average height increased over this period; men and women aged 25-34 years were 171.9 and 161.2 cm tall in 1970 and 177.0 and 164.0 cm in 2003, respectively. However, education-related inequalities in height remained unchanged over this period and in men were 4.48 cm (1970), 4.71 cm (1980), 5.58 cm (1991) and 4.69 cm (2003), the corresponding figures in women were 2.41, 2.37, 3.14 and 2.96 cm. Income-related inequalities in height were smaller and much attenuated after adjustment for education. These results suggest that in France, social inequalities in adult height in absolute terms have remained unchanged across the three decades under examination.

Secular trends in legal and illegal substance use among 16 to 20 year old adolescents in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Data targeting trends in legal and illegal substance use by adolescents are scarce. Using the data from two similar large national surveys run in 1993 and 2002, this paper assesses secular trends in rates of substance use among 16-20-year-old Swiss adolescents. METHODS: Self-reported regular use of tobacco, alcohol misuse, regular cannabis use (01 occasion over last 30 days) and lifetime use of psychoactive medication, LSD, ecstasy, cocaine and heroine were assessed through identical questions using an anonymous self-administered questionnaire. 9268 (1993) and 7428 (2002) high school students and apprentices were included in the analyses. RESULTS: There is a higher proportion of regular smokers among apprentices than among students (p <0.001). Between 1993 and 2002 the increase in regular tobacco consumption was significant among both female and male apprentices (p <0.001) but not among students. Between 1993 and 2002 alcohol misuse significantly increased in all four groups (p <0.001). It is more prevalent among males than among females (p <0.001) and higher among apprentices than among students (p <0.001). Regular use of cannabis has increased in the four groups (p <0.0001). It is higher among males than among females (p <0.001), while it is largely the same among students and apprentices. While the increase in ecstasy use is highly significant in all four groups (p <0.001), the increase in LSD and cocaine use is significant among apprentices only (p <0.001). Use of LSD, ecstasy and cocaine is more prevalent among males than among females (<0.001) and higher among apprentices than among students (p <0.001). CONCLUSION: The secular increase in psychoactive substance use among older Swiss adolescents calls for the implementation of effective strategies both from individual and public health viewpoints.

Patterns and trends in esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in Europe (1980-2011) and predictions to 2015

BACKGROUND: Over the last few decades, esophageal cancer incidence and mortality trends varied substantially across Europe, with important differences between sexes and the two main histological subtypes, squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (EAC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: To monitor recent esophageal cancer mortality trends and to compute short-term predictions in the European Union (EU) and selected European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1980-2011. We also analyzed incidence trends and relative weights of ESCC and EAC across Europe using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. RESULTS: Long-term decreasing trends were observed for male esophageal cancer mortality in several southern and western European countries, whereas in central Europe mortality increased until the mid-1990s and started to stabilize or decline over the last years. In some eastern and northern countries, the rates were still increasing. Mortality among European women remained comparatively low and showed stable or decreasing trends in most countries. Between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009, esophageal cancer mortality declined by 7% (from 5.34 to 4.99/100 000) in EU men, and by 3% (from 1.12 to 1.09/100 000) in EU women. Predictions to 2015 show persistent declines in mortality rates for men in the EU overall, and stable rates for EU women, with rates for 2015 of 4.5/100 000 men (about 22 300 deaths) and 1.1/100 000 women (about 7400 deaths). In northern Europe, EAC is now the predominant histological type among men, while for European women ESCC is more common and corresponding rates are still increasing in several countries. CONCLUSION(S): The observed trends reflect the variations in alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and overweight across European countries.

Anàlisi legal del projecte Google books des de la perspectiva dels drets de propietat intel·lectual

Objectiu. Descriure el projecte Google books i analitzar-lo des de la perspectiva legal, tenint en compte els tres agents principals implicats: Google, els titulars de drets de propietat intel·lectual i les biblioteques. Metodologia. Anàlisi legal comparada (legislacions dels Estats Units, de França i d'Espanya) de les implicacions del projecte Google books sobre els drets de propietat intel·lectual i el dret de la competència. Estudi de les demandes plantejades contra Google als Estats Units i a Europa, aixícom les possibles conseqüències de l'acord de conciliació adoptat per Google i les associacionsd'autors i editors als Estats Units. Resultats. Google books ha suposat una infracció massiva de drets de propietat intel·lectual. Per determinar si els llibres d'una biblioteca han entrat en el domini públic o no, cal determinar prèviament quina llei nacional resulta aplicable a cada llibre. La posada a disposició a Google books d'obres descatalogades i tan sols fragments de llibres que es troben a la venda no pot dursea terme sense l'autorització dels titulars. En el cas de les obres òrfenes, l'explotació exigeixl'adopció de certes mesures prèvies per garantir els drets dels titulars, en cas que aquests arribina conèixer-se. L'acord de conciliació adoptat als Estats Units entre Google i les associacionsd'autors i editors pot implicar una posició de monopoli per part de Google en relació amb la venda dels llibres descatalogats i les obres òrfenes.

Análisis legal del proyecto Google books desde la perspectiva de los derechos de propiedad intelectual

Objetivos: Describir el proyecto Google books y analizarlo desde la perspectiva legal, teniendo en cuenta los tres agentes principales implicados en el mismo: Google, los titulares de derechos de propiedad intelectual y las bibliotecas. Metodología: Análisis legal comparado (legislaciones de Estados Unidos, Francia y España) de las implicaciones del proyecto Google books sobre los derechos de propiedad intelectual y el derecho de la competencia. Estudio de las demandas planteadas contra Google en Estados Unidos y en Europa, así como las posibles consecuencias del acuerdo de conciliación adoptado por Google y las asociaciones de autores y editores en Estados Unidos. Resultados: Google books ha supuesto una infracción masiva de derechos de propiedad intelectual. Para determinar si los libros que se encuentran en una biblioteca han entrado o no el dominio público, es preciso determinar previamente qué ley nacional resulta aplicable a cada libro. La puesta a disposición en Google books de obras descatalogadas y únicamente de fragmentos de libros que se encuentran a la venta no puede llevarse a cabo sin laautorización de los titulares. En el caso de las obras huérfanas, su explotación exige la adopción de ciertas medidas previas para garantizar los derechos de los titulares, en el caso de que estos lleguen a conocerse. El acuerdo de conciliación adoptado en Estados Unidos entre Google y las asociaciones de autores y editores puede implicar una posición de monopolio por parte de Google en relación a la venta de los libros descatalogados y de las obras huérfanas.