Superluminous Supernovae as Standardizable Candles and High-Redshift Distance Probes

We investigate the use of type Ic superluminous supernovae (SLSN Ic) as standardizable candles and distance indicators. Their appeal as cosmological probes stems from their remarkable peak luminosities, hot blackbody temperatures, and bright rest-frame ultraviolet emission. We present a sample of 16 published SLSN, from redshifts 0.1 to 1.2, and calculate accurate K corrections to determine uniform magnitudes in 2 synthetic rest-frame filter bandpasses with central wavelengths at 400 nm and 520 nm. At 400 nm, we find an encouragingly low scatter in their uncorrected, raw mean magnitudes with M(400) = -21.86 ± 0.35 mag for the full sample of 16 objects. We investigate the correlation between their decline rates and peak magnitude and find that the brighter events appear to decline more slowly. In a manner similar to the Phillips relation for type Ia SNe (SNe Ia), we define a ΔM 20 decline relation. This correlates peak magnitude and decline over 20 days and can reduce the scatter in standardized peak magnitudes to ±0.22 mag. We further show that M(400) appears to have a strong color dependence. Redder objects are fainter and also become redder faster. Using this peak magnitudecolor evolution relation, a surprisingly low scatter of between ±0.08 mag and ±0.13 mag can be found in peak magnitudes, depending on sample selection. However, we caution that only 8 to 10 objects currently have enough data to test this peak magnitudecolor evolution relation. We conclude that SLSN Ic are promising distance indicators in the high-redshift universe in regimes beyond those possible with SNe Ia. Although the empirical relationships are encouraging, the unknown progenitor systems, how they may evolve with redshift, and the uncertain explosion physics are of some concern. The two major measurement uncertainties are the limited numbers of low-redshift, well-studied objects available to test these relationships and internal dust extinction in the host galaxies.

A supernova distance to the anchor galaxy NGC 4258

The fortuitous occurrence of a type II-Plateau (IIP) supernova, SN 2014bc, in a galaxy for which distance estimates from a number of primary distance indicators are available provides a means with which to cross-calibrate the standardised candle method (SCM) for type IIP SNe. By applying calibrations from the literature we find distance estimates in line with the most precise measurement to NGC 4258 based on the Keplerian motion of masers (7:6 ± 0:23 Mpc), albeit with significant scatter. We provide an alternative local SCM calibration by only considering type IIP SNe that have occurred in galaxies for which a Cepheid distance estimate is available. We find a considerable reduction in scatter (σ<inf>I</inf> = 0:16 mag), but note that the current sample size is limited. Applying this calibration, we estimate a distance to NGC 4258 of 7:08 ± 0:86 Mpc.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the APCS gene influence geographic atrophy secondary to VEGF inhibition therapy in neovascular macular degeneration.

Introduction: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of vision loss in the elderly mostly due to the development of neovascular AMD (nAMD) or geographic atrophy (GA). Intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents are an effective therapeutic option for nAMD. Following anti-VEGF treatments, increased atrophy of the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) and choriocapillaries that resembles GA has been reported. We sought to evaluate the underlying genetic influences that may contribute to this process. Methods: We selected 68 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from genes previously identified as susceptibility factors in AMD, along with 43 SNPs from genes encoding the VEGF protein and its cognate receptors as this pathway is targeted by treatment. We enrolled 467 consecutive patients (Feb 2009 to October 2011) with nAMD who received anti-VEGF therapy. The acutely presenting eye was designated as the study eye and retinal tomograms graded for macular atrophy at study exit. Statistical analysis was performed using PLINK to identify SNPs with a P value < 0.01. Logistic regression models with macular atrophy as dependent variable were fitted with age, gender, smoking status, common genetic risk factors and the identified SNPs as explanatory variables. Results: Grading for macular atrophy was available in 304 study eyes and 70% (214) were classified as showing macular atrophy. In the unadjusted analysis we observed significant associations between macular atrophy and two independent SNPs in the APCS gene: rs6695377: odds ratio (OR) = 1.98; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.23, 3.19; P = 0.004; rs1446965: OR = 2.49, CI: 1.29, 4.82; P = 0.006 and these associations remained significant after adjustment for covariates. Conclusions: VEGF is a mitogen and growth factor for choroidal blood vessels and the RPE and its inhibition could lead to atrophy of these key tissues. Anti-VEGF treatment can interfere with ocular vascular maintenance and may be associated with RPE and choroidal atrophy. As such, these medications, which block the effects of VEGF, may influence the development of GA. The top associated SNPs are found in the APCS gene, a highly conserved glycoprotein that encodes Serum amyloid P (SAP) which opsonizes apoptotic cells. SAP can bind to and activate complement components via binding to C1q, a mechanism by which SAP may remove cellular debris, affecting regulation of the three complement pathways.

A practical taxonomy of methods and literature for managing uncertain spatial data in geographic information systems

Perfect information is seldom available to man or machines due to uncertainties inherent in real world problems. Uncertainties in geographic information systems (GIS) stem from either vague/ambiguous or imprecise/inaccurate/incomplete information and it is necessary for GIS to develop tools and techniques to manage these uncertainties. There is a widespread agreement in the GIS community that although GIS has the potential to support a wide range of spatial data analysis problems, this potential is often hindered by the lack of consistency and uniformity. Uncertainties come in many shapes and forms, and processing uncertain spatial data requires a practical taxonomy to aid decision makers in choosing the most suitable data modeling and analysis method. In this paper, we: (1) review important developments in handling uncertainties when working with spatial data and GIS applications; (2) propose a taxonomy of models for dealing with uncertainties in GIS; and (3) identify current challenges and future research directions in spatial data analysis and GIS for managing uncertainties.

The dust environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko from Rosetta OSIRIS and VLT observations in the 4.5 to 2.9 au heliocentric distance range inbound

Context. The ESA Rosetta spacecraft, currently orbiting around comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, has already provided in situ measurements of the dust grain properties from several instruments,particularly OSIRIS and GIADA. We propose adding value to those measurements by combining them with ground-based observations of the dust tail to monitor the overall, time-dependent dust-production rate and size distribution.
Aims. To constrain the dust grain properties, we take Rosetta OSIRIS and GIADA results into account, and combine OSIRIS data during the approach phase (from late April to early June 2014) with a large data set of ground-based images that were acquired with the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT) from February to November 2014.
Methods. A Monte Carlo dust tail code, which has already been used to characterise the dust environments of several comets and active asteroids, has been applied to retrieve the dust parameters. Key properties of the grains (density, velocity, and size distribution) were obtained from Rosetta observations: these parameters were used as input of the code to considerably reduce the number of free parameters. In this way, the overall dust mass-loss rate and its dependence on the heliocentric distance could be obtained accurately.
Results. The dust parameters derived from the inner coma measurements by OSIRIS and GIADA and from distant imaging using VLT data are consistent, except for the power index of the size-distribution function, which is α = −3, instead of α = −2, for grains smaller than 1 mm. This is possibly linked to the presence of fluffy aggregates in the coma. The onset of cometary activity occurs at approximately 4.3 AU, with a dust production rate of 0.5 kg/s, increasing up to 15 kg/s at 2.9 AU. This implies a dust-to-gas mass ratio varying between 3.8 and 6.5 for the best-fit model when combined with water-production rates from the MIRO experiment.

Is Longer-Distance Migration Slowing? An Analysis of the Annual Record for England and Wales since the 1970s

This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensities is also the case in the UK. It uses annual inter-area migration matrices available for England and Wales since the 1970s by broad age group. The main methodological challenge, arising from changes in the geography of health areas for which the inter-area flows are given, is addressed by adopting the lowest common denominator of 80 areas. Care is also taken to allow for the effect of economic cycles in producing short-term fluctuations on migration rates and to isolate the effect of a sharp rise in rates for 16-24 year olds in the 1990s, which is presumed to be related to the expansion of higher education. The findings suggest that, unlike for the USA, there has not been a substantial decline in the intensity of internal migration between the first two decades of the study period and the second two. If there has been any major decline in the intensity of address changing in England and Wales, it can only be for the within-area moves that this time series does not cover. This latter possibility is examined in a companion paper using a very different data set (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Are People Changing Address Less? An Analysis of Migration within England and Wales, 1971–2011, by Distance of Move

Expectations of migration and mobility steadily increasing in the longer term, which have a long currency in migration theory and related social science, are at odds with the latest US research showing a marked decline in internal migration rates. This paper reports the results of research that investigates whether England and Wales have experienced any similar change in recent decades. Using the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS) of linked census records, it examines the evidence provided by its 10-year migration indicator, with particular attention to a comparison of the first and latest decades available, 1971-1981 and 2001-2011. This suggests that, as in the USA, there has been a marked reduction in the level of shorter-distance (less than 10km) moving that has involved almost all types of people. In contrast to this and to US experience, however, the propensity of people to make longer-distance address changes between decennial censuses has declined much less, largely corroborating the results of a companion study tracking the annual trend in rates of between-area migration since the 1970s (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Choice of commuting mode among employees: Do home neighborhood environment, worksite neighborhood environment, and worksite policy and supports matter?

BACKGROUND: Promoting the use of public transit and active transport (walking and cycling) instead of car driving is an appealing strategy to increase overall physical activity.

PURPOSE: To quantify the combined associations between self-reported home and worksite neighborhood environments, worksite support and policies, and employees' commuting modes.

METHOD: Between 2012 and 2013, participants residing in four Missouri metropolitan areas were interviewed via telephone (n = 1,338) and provided information on socio-demographic characteristics, home and worksite neighborhoods, and worksite support and policies. Commuting mode was self-reported and categorized into car driving, public transit, and active commuting. Commuting distance was calculated using geographic information systems. Commuters providing completed data were included in the analysis. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the correlates of using public transit and active commuting.

RESULT: The majority of participants reported commuting by driving (88.9%); only 4.9% used public transit and 6.2% used active modes. After multivariate adjustment, having transit stops within 10-15 minutes walking distance from home (p=0.05) and using worksite incentive for public transit (p<0.001) were associated with commuting by public transit. Commuting distance (p<0.001) was negatively associated with active commuting. Having free or low cost recreation facilities around the worksite (p=0.04) and using bike facilities to lock bikes at the worksite (p<0.001) were associated with active commuting.

CONCLUSION: Both environment features and worksite supports and policies are associated with the choice of commuting mode. Future studies should use longitudinal designs to investigate the potential of promoting alternative commuting modes through worksite efforts that support sustainable commuting behaviors as well as the potential of built environment improvements.

Comet 322P/SOHO 1: An asteroid with the smallest perihelion distance?

We observed comet 322P/SOHO 1 (P/1999 R1) from the ground and with the Spitzer Space Telescope when it was between 2.2 and 1.2 AU from the Sun. These are the first observations of any SOHO-discovered periodic comet by a non-solar observatory, and allow us to investigate its behavior under typical cometary circumstances. 322P appeared inactive in all images. Its lightcurve suggests a rotation period of 2.8+/-0.3 hr and has an amplitude greater than ~0.3 mag, implying a density of at least 1000 kg m$^{-3}$, considerably higher than that of any known comet. It has average colors of g'-r' = 0.52+/-0.04 and r'-i' = 0.04+/-0.09. We converted these to Johnson colors and found that the V-R color is consistent with average cometary colors, but R-I is somewhat bluer; these colors are most similar to V- and Q-type asteroids. Modeling of the optical and IR photometry suggests it has a diameter of 150-320 m and a geometric albedo of 0.09-0.42, with diameter and albedo inversely related. Our upper limits to any undetected coma are still consistent with a sublimation lifetime shorter than the typical dynamical lifetimes for Jupiter Family Comets. These results suggest that it may be of asteroidal origin and only active in the SOHO fields of view via processes different from the volatile-driven activity of traditional comets. If so, it has the smallest perihelion distance of any known asteroid.

Ecological assessment of the red deer population in the Lousã Mountain

Durante o último século, as populações de cervídeos têm aumentado substancialmente um pouco por toda a Europa. O veado Cervus elaphus não foi exceção, apresentando atualmente uma ampla distribuição geográfica. Após a quase extinção de todas as populações selvagens desta espécie em Portugal, o número de efetivos de veado e a área de distribuição da espécie têm aumentado significativamente nas últimas décadas. Esta proliferação deveu-se fundamentalmente aos processos de reintrodução implementados em algumas zonas do país, como foi o caso da Serra da Lousã. Dez anos após a reintrodução, a expansão geográfica e demográfica é já uma realidade e a espécie assume um papel relevante tanto do ponto de vista cinegético como turístico. Com o aumento das populações de ungulados, surge a necessidade de aumentar o conhecimento existente sobre estas espécies, particularmente ao nível das estimativas populacionais, do uso e seleção de habitat, do comportamento e da fisiologia das populações. Neste sentido, um dos objetivos foi comparar quatro métodos de contagem de excrementos em termos de estimativa populacional, aplicabilidade e eficiência. Face aos resultados obtidos, o método de transectos lineares com distance sampling revelou-se o mais eficiente, providenciando uma boa precisão num menor tempo. Relativamente ao uso e seleção do habitat, recorrendo a transectos de contagem de excrementos e a observações diretas, verificou-se que o veado seleciona positivamente habitats que lhe proporcionam simultaneamente alimento e refúgio, como é o caso das áreas de ecótono. A preferência por áreas de ecótono evidencia um comportamento adaptativo de maximização de energia, no qual os animais optam por procurar refúgio na proximidade das áreas de alimentação de forma a minimizarem os dispêndios energéticos. Em termos de dinâmica populacional, verificou-se uma relação entre a densidade de veado e o tamanho dos seus grupos, bem como o efeito nos mesmos do coberto vegetal. Contudo, dado o seu alto dimorfismo sexual em termos de tamanho corporal, as preferências de habitat podem também ser em parte responsáveis pela segregação sexual fora da época de reprodução. Face aos resultados obtidos através do método de observação direta de animais, a segregação sexual surge como consequência da interação entre fatores sociais e de habitat, que resultam de diferentes estratégias reprodutivas por parte de ambos os sexos. As diferentes estratégias reprodutivas são também notórias em termos de condição física e imunológica, com os machos a aumentarem a sua condição durante as épocas de primavera e verão de forma a melhorarem a sua performance durante o cio, e as fêmeas a viverem grande parte do ano no limiar da condição física devido ao seu investimento na sobrevivência da sua descendência. Globalmente, o veado apresenta uma boa adaptação à Serra da Lousã e representa um importante recurso natural para esta região. Contudo, para que a proliferação desta população selvagem continue, é necessária a implementação de medidas de gestão adequadas a este ecossistema mediterrâneo.