982 resultados para functional prediction


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Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Molecular Biology

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Dissertation presented to obtain a Doctoral degree in Biology by Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica

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This article investigates the limit cycle (LC) prediction of systems with backlash by means of the describing function (DF) when using discrete fractional-order (FO) algorithms. The DF is an approximate method that gives good estimates of LCs. The implementation of FO controllers requires the use of rational approximations, but such realizations produce distinct dynamic types of behavior. This study analyzes the accuracy in the prediction of LCs, namely their amplitude and frequency, when using several different algorithms. To illustrate this problem we use FO-PID algorithms in the control of systems with backlash.

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Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on short- time stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.

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Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

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Eight tropical fruit pulps from Brazil were simultaneously characterised in terms of their antioxidant and antimicrobial properties. Antioxidant activity was screened by DPPH radical scavenging activity (126–3987 mg TE/100 g DW) and ferric reduction activity power (368–20819 mg AAE/100 g DW), and complemented with total phenolic content (329–12466 mg GAE/100 g DW) and total flavonoid content measurements (46–672 mg EE /100 g DW), whereas antimicrobial activity was tested against the most frequently found food pathogens. Acerola and açaí presented the highest values for the antioxidant-related measurements. Direct correlations between these measurements could be observed for some of the fruits. Tamarind exhibited the broadest antimicrobial potential, having revealed growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella sp. and Staphylococcus aureus. Açaí and tamarind extracts presented an inverse relationship between antibacterial and antioxidant activities, and therefore, the antibacterial activity cannot be attributed (only) to phenolic compounds.

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The integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by their unions. Adhesive-bonding is often used over traditional methods because of the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty, and easy manufacturing. Commercial adhesives range from strong and brittle (e.g., Araldite® AV138) to less strong and ductile (e.g., Araldite® 2015). A new family of polyurethane adhesives combines high strength and ductility (e.g., Sikaforce® 7888). In this work, the performance of the three above-mentioned adhesives was tested in single lap joints with varying values of overlap length (LO). The experimental work carried out is accompanied by a detailed numerical analysis by finite elements, either based on cohesive zone models (CZM) or the extended finite element method (XFEM). This procedure enabled detailing the performance of these predictive techniques applied to bonded joints. Moreover, it was possible to evaluate which family of adhesives is more suited for each joint geometry. CZM revealed to be highly accurate, except for largely ductile adhesives, although this could be circumvented with a different cohesive law. XFEM is not the most suited technique for mixed-mode damage growth, but a rough prediction was achieved.

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RESUMO: Introdução: A espondilite anquilosante (EA) é uma doença inflamatória crónica caracterizada pela inflamação das articulações sacroilíacas e da coluna. A anquilose progressiva motiva uma deterioração gradual da função física e da qualidade de vida. O diagnóstico e o tratamento precoces podem contribuir para um melhor prognóstico. Neste contexto, a identificação de biomarcadores, assume-se como sendo muito útil para a prática clínica e representa hoje um grande desafio para a comunidade científica. Objetivos: Este estudo teve como objetivos: 1 - caracterizar a EA em Portugal; 2 - investigar possíveis associações entre genes, MHC e não-MHC, com a suscetibilidade e as características fenotípicas da EA; 3 - identificar genes candidatos associados a EA através da tecnologia de microarray. Material e Métodos: Foram recrutados doentes com EA, de acordo com os critérios modificados de Nova Iorque, nas consultas de Reumatologia dos diferentes hospitais participantes. Colecionaram-se dados demográficos, clínicos e radiológicos e colhidas amostras de sangue periférico. Selecionaram-se de forma aleatória, doentes HLA-B27 positivos, os quais foram tipados em termos de HLA classe I e II por PCR-rSSOP. Os haplótipos HLA estendidos foram estimados pelo algoritmo Expectation Maximization com recurso ao software Arlequin v3.11. As variantes alélicas dos genes IL23R, ERAP1 e ANKH foram estudadas através de ensaios de discriminação alélica TaqMan. A análise de associação foi realizada utilizando testes da Cochrane-Armitage e de regressão linear, tal como implementado pelo PLINK, para variáveis qualitativas e quantitativas, respetivamente. O estudo de expressão génica foi realizado por Illumina HT-12 Whole-Genome Expression BeadChips. Os genes candidatos foram validados usando qPCR-based TaqMan Low Density Arrays (TLDAs). Resultados: Foram incluídos 369 doentes (62,3% do sexo masculino, com idade média de 45,4 ± 13,2 anos, duração média da doença de 11,4 ± 10,5 anos). No momento da avaliação, 49,9% tinham doença axial, 2,4% periférica, 40,9% mista e 7,1% entesopática. A uveíte anterior aguda (33,6%) foi a manifestação extra-articular mais comum. Foram positivos para o HLA-B27, 80,3% dos doentes. Os haplótipo A*02/B*27/Cw*02/DRB1*01/DQB1*05 parece conferir suscetibilidade para a EA, e o A*02/B*27/Cw*01/DRB1*08/DQB1*04 parece conferir proteção em termos de atividade, repercussão funcional e radiológica da doença. Três variantes (2 para IL23R e 1 para ERAP1) mostraram significativa associação com a doença, confirmando a associação destes genes com a EA na população Portuguesa. O mesmo não se verificou com as variantes estudadas do ANKH. Não se verificou associação entre as variantes génicas não-MHC e as manifestações clínicas da EA. Foi identificado um perfil de expressão génica para a EA, tendo sido validados catorze genes - alguns têm um papel bem documentado em termos de inflamação, outros no metabolismo da cartilagem e do osso. Conclusões: Foi estabelecido um perfil demográfico e clínico dos doentes com EA em Portugal. A identificação de variantes génicas e de um perfil de expressão contribuem para uma melhor compreensão da sua fisiopatologia e podem ser úteis para estabelecer modelos com relevância em termos de diagnóstico, prognóstico e orientação terapêutica dos doentes. -----------ABSTRACT: Background: Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) is a chronic inflammatory disorder characterized by inflammation in the spine and sacroiliac joints leading to progressive joint ankylosis and in progressive deterioration of physical function and quality of life. An early diagnosis and early therapy may contribute to a better prognosis. The identification of biomarkers would be helpful and represents a great challenge for the scientific community. Objectives: The present study had the following aims: 1- to characterize the pattern of AS in Portuguese patients; 2- to investigate MHC and non-MHC gene associations with susceptibility and phenotypic features of AS and; 3- to identify candidate genes associated with AS by means of whole-genome microarray. Material and Methods: AS was defined in accordance to the modified New York criteria and AS cases were recruited from hospital outcares patient clinics. Demographic and clinical data were recorded and blood samples collected. A random group of HLA-B27 positive patients and controls were selected and typed for HLA class I and II by PCR-rSSOP. The extended HLA haplotypes were estimated by Expectation Maximization Algorithm using Arlequin v3.11 software. Genotyping of IL23R, ERAP1 and ANKH allelic variants was carried out with TaqMan allelic discrimination assays. Association analysis was performed using the Cochrane-Armitage and linear regression tests as implemented in PLINK, for dichotomous and quantitative variables, respectively. Gene expression profile was carried out using Illumina HT-12 Whole-Genome Expression BeadChips and candidate genes were validated using qPCR-based TaqMan Low Density Arrays (TLDAs). Results: A total of 369 patients (62.3% male; mean age 45.4±13.2 years; mean disease duration 11.4±10.5 years), were included. Regarding clinical disease pattern, at the time of assessment, 49.9% had axial disease, 2.4% peripheral disease, 40.9% mixed disease and 7.1% isolated enthesopathic disease. Acute anterior uveitis (33.6%) was the most common extra-articular manifestation. 80.3% of AS patients were HLA-B27 positive. The haplotype A*02/B*27/Cw*02/DRB1*01/DQB1*05 seems to confer susceptibility to AS, whereas A*02/B*27/Cw*01/DRB1*08/DQB1*04 seems to provide protection in terms of disease activity, functional and radiological repercussion. Three markers (two for IL23R and one for ERAP1) showed significant single-locus disease associations. Association of these genes with AS in the Portuguese population was confirmed, whereas ANKH markers studied did not show an association with AS. No association was seen between non-MHC genes and clinical manifestations of AS. A gene expression signature for AS was established; among the fourteen validated genes, a number of them have a well-documented inflammatory role or in modulation of cartilage and bone metabolism. Conclusions: A demographic and clinical profile of patients with AS in Portugal was established. Identification of genetic variants of target genes as well as gene expression signatures could provide a better understanding of AS pathophysiology and could be useful to establish models with relevance in terms of susceptibility, prognosis, and potential therapeutic guidance.

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OBJECTIVE: To empirically test, based on a large multicenter, multinational database, whether a modified PIRO (predisposition, insult, response, and organ dysfunction) concept could be applied to predict mortality in patients with infection and sepsis. DESIGN: Substudy of a multicenter multinational cohort study (SAPS 3). PATIENTS: A total of 2,628 patients with signs of infection or sepsis who stayed in the ICU for >48 h. Three boxes of variables were defined, according to the PIRO concept. Box 1 (Predisposition) contained information about the patient's condition before ICU admission. Box 2 (Injury) contained information about the infection at ICU admission. Box 3 (Response) was defined as the response to the infection, expressed as a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score after 48 h. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Most of the infections were community acquired (59.6%); 32.5% were hospital acquired. The median age of the patients was 65 (50-75) years, and 41.1% were female. About 22% (n=576) of the patients presented with infection only, 36.3% (n=953) with signs of sepsis, 23.6% (n=619) with severe sepsis, and 18.3% (n=480) with septic shock. Hospital mortality was 40.6% overall, greater in those with septic shock (52.5%) than in those with infection (34.7%). Several factors related to predisposition, infection and response were associated with hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: The proposed three-level system, by using objectively defined criteria for risk of mortality in sepsis, could be used by physicians to stratify patients at ICU admission or shortly thereafter, contributing to a better selection of management according to the risk of death.

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Does carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), a surrogate marker of cardiovascular events, have predictive incremental value over established risk factors for stable coronary artery disease (CAD)? Prospective study of 300 patients, with suspected stable CAD, admitted for an elective coronary angiography and carotid ultrasound. The CAD patients had a higher cIMT, which showed a modest predictive accuracy for CAD (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.638, 95% confidence interval 0.576-0.701, P < .001). The cIMT was an independent predictor of CAD, together with age, gender, and diabetes. C-statistic for CAD prediction by traditional risk factors was not significantly different from a model that included cIMT, carotid plaque presence, or both. However, in women, it was significantly increased by the addition of cIMT or carotid plaque presence. Although cIMT cannot be used as a sole indicator of CAD, it should be considered in the panel of investigations that is requested, particularly in women who are candidates for coronary angiography.

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The hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1a) is a key regulator of tumour cell response to hypoxia, orchestrating mechanisms known to be involved in cancer aggressiveness and metastatic behaviour. In this study we sought to evaluate the association of a functional genetic polymorphism in HIF1A with overall and metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) risk and with response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). The HIF1A +1772 C>T (rs11549465) polymorphism was genotyped, using DNA isolated from peripheral blood, in 1490 male subjects (754 with prostate cancer and 736 controls cancer-free) through Real-Time PCR. A nested group of cancer patients who were eligible for androgen deprivation therapy was followed up. Univariate and multivariate models were used to analyse the response to hormonal treatment and the risk for developing distant metastasis. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated to evaluate prostate cancer risk. Our results showed that patients under ADT carrying the HIF1A +1772 T-allele have increased risk for developing distant metastasis (OR, 2.0; 95%CI, 1.1-3.9) and an independent 6-fold increased risk for resistance to ADT after multivariate analysis (OR, 6.0; 95%CI, 2.2-16.8). This polymorphism was not associated with increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR, 0.9; 95%CI, 0.7-1.2). The HIF1A +1772 genetic polymorphism predicts a more aggressive prostate cancer behaviour, supporting the involvement of HIF1a in prostate cancer biological progression and ADT resistance. Molecular profiles using hypoxia markers may help predict clinically relevant prostate cancer and response to ADT.

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Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Molecular Biology

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The hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1a) is a key regulator of tumour cell response to hypoxia, orchestrating mechanisms known to be involved in cancer aggressiveness and metastatic behaviour. In this study we sought to evaluate the association of a functional genetic polymorphism in HIF1A with overall and metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) risk and with response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). The HIF1A +1772 C>T (rs11549465) polymorphism was genotyped, using DNA isolated from peripheral blood, in 1490 male subjects (754 with prostate cancer and 736 controls cancer-free) through Real-Time PCR. A nested group of cancer patients who were eligible for androgen deprivation therapy was followed up. Univariate and multivariate models were used to analyse the response to hormonal treatment and the risk for developing distant metastasis. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated to evaluate prostate cancer risk. Our results showed that patients under ADT carrying the HIF1A +1772 T-allele have increased risk for developing distant metastasis (OR, 2.0; 95%CI, 1.1-3.9) and an independent 6-fold increased risk for resistance to ADT after multivariate analysis (OR, 6.0; 95%CI, 2.2-16.8). This polymorphism was not associated with increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR, 0.9; 95%CI, 0.7-1.2). The HIF1A +1772 genetic polymorphism predicts a more aggressive prostate cancer behaviour, supporting the involvement of HIF1a in prostate cancer biological progression and ADT resistance. Molecular profiles using hypoxia markers may help predict clinically relevant prostate cancer and response to ADT.