Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Fish and fisheries in the Sesan River Basin: catchment baseline, fisheries section

The present report was prepared for the Water and Food Challenge Program project “Optimizing the management of a cascade of reservoirs at the catchment level” (MK3). It constitutes the baseline assessment of fish and fisheries in the Sesan River Basin. The objective of the MK3 project is to contribute knowledge and recommendations so that cascades of reservoirs corresponding to hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin are managed in ways that are more fair and equitable for all water users. This project seeks to understand at the catchment scale the cumulative upstream and downstream consequences of management decisions taken for multiple reservoirs. Revised rules for water storage infrastructure management will in particular take into account fisheries and agricultural potential as well as hydropower gen

Asymmetric conservation benefits of circle hooks in multispecies billfish recreational fisheries: a synthesis of hook performance and analysis of blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) postrelease survival

We evaluated the conservation benefits of the use of circle hooks compared with standard J hooks in the recreational fishery for Atlantic istiophorid billfishes, noting hooking location and the presence of trauma (bleeding) for 123 blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), 272 white marlin (Kajikia albida), and 132 sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) caught on natural baits rigged with one of the two hook types. In addition, we used pop-up satellite archival tags (PSATs) to follow the fate of 61 blue marlin caught on natural baits rigged with circle hooks or on a combination of artificial lure and natural bait rigged with J hooks. The frequencies of internal hooking locations and bleeding were significantly lower with circle hooks than with J hooks for each of the three species and were significantly reduced for blue marlin caught on J hooks than for white marlin and sailfish taken on the same hook type. Analysis of the data received from 59 PSATs (two tags released prematurely) indicated no mortalities among the 29 blue marlin caught on circle hooks and two mortalities among the 30 blue marlin caught on J hooks (6.7%). Collectively, the hook location and PSAT data revealed that blue marlin, like white marlin and sailfish, derive substantial conservation benefits from the use of circle hooks, and the negative impacts of J hooks are significantly reduced for blue marlin relative to the other two species.

Effects of lunar cycle and fishing operations on longline-caught pelagic fish: fishing performance, capture time, and survival of fish

Commercial longline fishing data were analyzed and experiments were conducted with gear equipped with hook timers and timedepth recorders in the Réunion Island fishery (21°5ʹS lat., 53°28ʹE long.) to elucidate direct and indirect effects of the lunar cycle and other operational factors that affect catch rates, catch composition, fish behavior, capture time, and fish survival. Logbook data from 1998 through 2000, comprising 2009 sets, indicated that swordfish (Xiphias gladius) catch-per unit of effort (CPUE) increased during the first and last quarter of the lunar phase, whereas albacore (Thunnus alalunga) CPUE was highest during the full moon. Swordfish were caught rapidly after the longline was set and, like bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus), they were caught during days characterized by a weak lunar illumination—mainly during low tide. We found a significant but very low influence of chemical lightsticks on CPUE and catch composition. At the time the longline was retrieved, six of the 11 species in the study had >40% survival. Hook timers indicated that only 8.4% of the swordfish were alive after 8 hours of capture, and two shark species (blue shark [Prionace glauca] and oceanic whitetip shark [Carcharhinus longimanus]) showed a greater resilience to capture: 29.3% and 23.5% were alive after 8 hours, respectively. Our results have implications for current fishing practices and we comment on the possibilities of modifying fishing strategies in order to reduce operational costs, bycatch, loss of target fish at sea, and detrimental impacts on the environment.

Evaluation of the capture efficiency and size selectivity of four pot types in the prospective fishery for North Pacific giant octopus (Enteroctopus dofleini)

Over 230 metric tons of octopus is harvested as bycatch annually in Alaskan trawl, long-line, and pot fisheries. An expanding market has fostered interest in the development of a directed fishery for North Pacific giant octopus (Enteroctopus dofleini). To investigate the potential for fishery development we examined the efficacy of four different pot types for capture of this species. During two surveys in Kachemak Bay, Alaska, strings of 16 –20 sablefish, Korean hair crab, shrimp, and Kodiak wooden lair pots were set at depths ranging between 62 and 390 meters. Catch per-unit-of-ef for t estimates were highest for sablefish and lair pots. Sablefish pots caught significantly heavier North Pacific giant octopuses but also produced the highest bycatch of commercially important species, such as halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), and Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi).

The repulsive and feeding-deterrent effects of electropositive metals on juvenile sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus)

Reducing shark bycatch and depredation (i.e., damage caused by sharks to gear, bait, and desired fish species) in pelagic longline fisheries targeting tunas and swordfish is a priority. Electropositive metals (i.e., a mixture of the lanthanide elements lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and praseodymium) have been shown to deter spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias, primarily a coastal species) from attacking bait, presumably because of interactions with the electroreceptive system of this shark. We undertook to determine the possible effectiveness of electropositive metals for reducing the interactions of pelagic sharks with longline gear, using sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus, family Carcharhinidae) as a model species. The presence of electropositive metal deterred feeding in groups of juvenile sandbar sharks and altered the swimming patterns of individuals in the absence of food motivation (these individuals generally avoided approaching electropositive metal closer than ~100 cm). The former effect was relatively short-lived however; primarily (we assume) because competition with other individuals increased feeding motivation. In field trials with bottom longline gear, electropositive metal placed within ~10 cm of the hooks reduced the catch of sandbar sharks by approximately two thirds, compared to the catch on hooks in the proximity of plastic pieces of similar dimensions. Electropositive metals therefore appear to have the potential to reduce shark interactions in pelagic longline fisheries, although the optimal mass, shape, composition, and distance to baited hooks remain to be determined.

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.

Age- and length-at-maturity of female arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) in the Gulf of Alaska

Arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) has had the highest abundance of any groundfish species in the Gulf of Alaska since the 1970s (Matarese et al., 2003; Turnock et al., 2005; Blood et al., 2007); however, commercial catches have been restricted because Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) are caught as bycatch in the fishery. Arrowtooth flounder plays a key role in the ecosystem because it is a dominant organism within the food web, both as an apex predator of fish and invertebrates, as well as an important prey for walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma; Aydin et al., 2002). Walleye pollock is the dominant groundfish in the Bering Sea, a principal groundfish in the Gulf of Alaska, and the primary prey for marine mammals. The distribution of arrowtooth flounder extends from Cape Navarin and the eastern Sea of Okhotsk in Russia, across the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, Gulf of Alaska, and south to the coast of central California (Shuntov, 1964; Britt and Martin, 2001; Chetvergov, 2001; Weinberg et al., 2002; Zenger, 2004). Because of the importance of arrowtooth flounder in the marine ecosystem of A laska, a maturity study of this species was undertaken to determine age-at-maturity, which is essential for age-based stock management models. Before these results, management has had to rely upon a length-at-maturity-based estimate (Zimmermann, 1997) to manage stocks in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), Bering Sea, and Aleutian Islands. The central GOA was selected as the location for this maturity study Age- and length-at-maturity of female arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) in the Gulf of Alaska because it contains approximately 70% of the total Gulf of Alaska arrowtooth flounder biomass (1.9×106 t, age 3 and older)— the highest percentage in the world (Shuntov, 1964; Britt and Martin, 2001; Weinberg et al., 2002; Wilderbuer and Nichol, 2006).

Spatial and temporal variability in the relative contribution of king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) stocks to winter mixed fisheries off South Florida

King mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) are ecologically and economically important scombrids that inhabit U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic). Separate migratory groups, or stocks, migrate from eastern GOM and southeastern U.S. Atlantic to south Florida waters where the stocks mix during winter. Currently, all winter landings from a management-defined south Florida mixing zone are attributed to the GOM stock. In this study, the stock composition of winter landings across three south Florida sampling zones was estimated by using stock-specific otolith morphological variables and Fourier harmonics. The mean accuracies of the jackknifed classifications from stepwise linear discriminant function analysis of otolith shape variables ranged from 66−76% for sex-specific models. Estimates of the contribution of the Atlantic stock to winter landings, derived from maximum likelihood stock mixing models, indicated the contribution was highest off southeastern Florida (as high as 82.8% for females in winter 2001−02) and lowest off southwestern Florida (as low as 14.5% for females in winter 2002−03). Overall, results provided evidence that the Atlantic stock contributes a certain, and perhaps a significant (i.e., ≥50%), percentage of landings taken in the management-defined winter mixing zone off south Florida, and the practice of assigning all winter mixing zone landings to the GOM stock should

Abundance and population density of cetaceans in the California Current ecosystem

The abundance and population density of cetaceans along the U.S. west coast were estimated from ship surveys conducted in the summer and fall of 1991, 1993, 1996, 2001, and 2005 by using multiple-covariate, line-transect analyses. Overall, approximately 556,000 cetaceans of 21 species were estimated to be in the 1,141,800-km2 study area. Delphinoids (Delphinidae and Phocoenidae), the most abundant group, numbered ~540,000 individuals. Abundance in other taxonomic groups included ~5800 baleen whales (Mysticeti), ~7000 beaked whales (Ziphiidae), and ~3200 sperm whales (Physeteridae). This study provides the longest time series of abundance estimates that includes all the cetacean species in any marine ecosystem. These estimates will be used to interpret the impacts of human-caused mortality (such as that documented in fishery bycatch and that caused by ship strikes and other means) and to evaluate the ecological role of cetaceans in the California Current ecosystem.

Interactions between marine mammals and pelagic longline fishing gear in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean between 1992 and 2004

The U.S. East Coast pelagic longline fishery has a history of interactions with marine mammals, where animals are hooked and entangled in longline gear. Pilot whales (Globicephala spp.) and Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) are the primary species that interact with longline gear. Logistic regression was used to assess the environmental and gear characteristics that influence interaction rates. Pilot whale inter-actions were correlated with warm water temperatures, proximity to the shelf break, mainline lengths greater than 20 nautical miles, and damage to swordfish catch. Similarly, Risso’s dolphin interactions were correlated with geographic location, proximity the shelf break, the length of the mainline, and bait type. The incidental bycatch of marine mammals is likely associated with depredation of the commercial catch and is increased by the overlap between marine mammal and target species habitats. Altering gear characteristics and fishery practices may mitigate incidental bycatch and reduce economic losses due to depredation.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

The structure and margins of the Lake Chilwa fisheries in Malawi: a value chain analysis

Small freshwater pelagic fisheries in closed lakes are very important to millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa providing livelihoods and nutritional security. However, returns from these fisheries have been shown to �uctuate in response to climatic variability. In order to understand the impact of these fluctuations on the livelihoods of people dependant on these fisheries, there is a need for information on how the fish value chain is organized and how it functions in response to variation in supplies. The results will feed into strategies that build resilience in fishing households against the uncertainties arising from unstable ecosystems. The Lake Chilwa fishery value chain is composed of fishers, processors, traders, fish transporters, boat owners, owners of fish processing shades, fisheries associations, gear owners, gear makers, firewood sellers, and traders of fishing gear and equipment. The value chain employs many people and local authorities can consider using this information in the design of rural development strategies for employment generation in small-scale fishing communities. The findings from this study have a number of implications for the improvement of the livelihood of fishers and enhancing their capacity to mitigate against the effects of climate change.

Fisheries production in Asia: its role in food security and nutrition

This paper reviews the status and some management issues of fisheries production in Asia, as well as the supply and demand situation. Its food security and nutritional roles and opportunities for value addition are also discussed.

Fisheries potential of village dams in northern Ghana

Results of a twelve-month assessment of the fisheries and aquaculture potential of small waterbodies (SWBs) in the West Gonja District of Northern Ghana are presented. The primary objectives of the project were to established whether the fisheries within the reservoir basins in the West Gonja and Nanumba Districts (Northern Region) could be enhanced and aquaculture associated with the SWBs could be viable.