994 resultados para crop yield forecast
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to report single season effects of wood biochar (char) application coupled with N fertilization on soil chemical properties, aerobic rice growth and grain yield in a clayey Rhodic Ferralsol in the Brazilian Savannah. Char application effected an increase in soil pH, K, Ca, Mg, CEC, Mn and nitrate while decreasing Al content and potential acidity of soils. No distinct effect of char application on grain yield of aerobic rice was observed. We believe that soil properties impacted by char application were inconsequential for rice yields because neither water, low pH, nor the availability of K or P were limiting factors for rice production. Rate of char above 16 Mg ha^(−1) reduced leaf area index and total shoot dry matter by 72 days after sowing. The number of panicles infected by rice blast decreased with increasing char rate. Increased dry matter beyond the remobilization capacity of the crop, and high number of panicles infected by rice blast were the likely cause of the lower grain yield observed when more than 60 kg N ha^(−1) was applied. The optimal rate of N was 46 kg ha^(−1) and resulted in a rice grain yield above 3 Mg ha^(−1).
Resumo:
The demand for biomass for bioenergy has increased rapidly in industrialized countries in the recent years. Biogenic energy carriers are known to reduce CO2 emissions. However, the resource-inefficient production of biomass often caused negative impacts on the environment, e.g. biodiversity losses, nitrate leaching, and erosion. The detrimental effects evolved mainly from annual crops. Therefore, the aim of modern bioenergy cropping systems is to combine yield stability and environmental benefits by the establishment of mixed-cropping systems. A particular emphasis is on perennial crops which are perceived as environmentally superior to annual crops. Agroforestry systems represent such mixed perennial cropping systems and consist of a mix of trees and arable crops or grassland within the same area of land. Agroforestry practices vary across the globe and alley cropping is a type of agroforestry system which is well adapted to the temperate zone, with a high degree of mechanization. Trees are planted in rows and crops are planted in the alleyways, which facilitates their management by machinery. This study was conducted to examine a young alley cropping system of willows and two grassland mixtures for bioenergy provision under temperate climate conditions. The first part of the thesis identified possible competition effects between willows and the two grassland mixtures. Since light seemed to be the factor most affecting the yield performance of the understory in temperate agroforestry systems, a biennial in situ artificial shade experiment was established over a separate clover-grass stand to quantify the effects of shade. Data to possible below- and aboveground interactions among willows and the two grassland mixtures and their effects on productivity, sward composition, and quality were monitored along a tree-grassland interface within the alleys. In the second part, productivity of the alley cropping system was examined on a triennial time frame and compared to separate grassland and willow stands as controls. Three different conversion technologies (combustion of hay, integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass, whole crop digestion) were applied to grassland biomass as feedstock and analyzed for its energetic potential. The energetic potential of willow wood chips was calculated by applying combustion as conversion technique. Net energy balances of separate grassland stands, agroforestry and pure willow stands evaluated their energy efficiency. Results of the biennial artificial shade experiment showed that severe shade (80 % light reduction) halved grassland productivity on average compared to a non-shaded control. White clover as heliophilous plant responded sensitively to limited radiation and its dry matter contribution in the sward decreased with increasing shade, whereas non-leguminous forbs (mainly segetal species) benefited. Changes in nutritive quality could not be confirmed by this experiment. Through the study on interactions within the alleys of the young agroforestry system it was possible to outline changes of incident light, soil temperature and sward composition of clover-grass along the tree-grassland interface. Nearly no effects of trees on precipitation, soil moisture and understory productivity occurred along the interface during the biennial experiment. Considering the results of the productivity and the net energy yield alley cropping system had lower than pure grassland stands, irrespective of the grassland seed mixture or fertilization, but was higher than that for pure willow stands. The comparison of three different energetic conversion techniques for the grassland biomass showed highest net energy yields for hay combustion, whereas the integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass (IFBB) and whole crop digestion performed similarly. However, due to the low fuel quality of hay, its direct combustion cannot be recommended as a viable conversion technique, whereas IFBB fuels were of a similar quality to wood chip from willow.
Resumo:
Vegetables represent a main source of micro-nutrients which can improve the health status of malnourished poor in the world. Spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) is a popular leafy vegetable in many countries which is rich with several important micro-nutrients. Thus, consuming Spinach helps to overcome micro-nutrient deficiencies. Pests and pathogens act as major yield constraints in food production. Root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne species, constitute a large group of highly destructive plant pests. Spinach is found to be highly susceptible for these nematode attacks. Though agricultural production has largely benefited from modern technologies and innovations, some important dimensions which can minimize the yield losses have been neglected by most of the growers. Pre-plant or initial nematode density in soil is a crucial biotic factor which is directly responsible for crop losses. Hence, information on preplant nematode densities and the corresponding damage is of vital importance to develop successful control procedures to enhance crop production. In the present study, effect of seven initial densities of M. incognita, i.e., 156, 312, 625, 1250, 2,500, 5,000 and 10,000 infective juveniles (IJs)/plant (equivalent to 1000cm3 soil) on the growth and root infestation on potted spinach plants was determined in a screen house. In order to ensure a high accuracy, root infestation was ascertained by the number of galls formed, the percentage galled-length of feeder roots and galled-feeder roots, and egg production, per plant. Fifty days post-inoculation, shoot length and weight, and root length were suppressed at the lowest IJs density. However, the pathogenic effect was pronounced at the highest density at which 43%, 46% and 45% reduction in shoot length and weight, and root length, respectively, was recorded. The highest reduction in root weight (26%) was detected at the second highest density. The Number of galls and percentage galled-length of feeder roots/per plant showed significant progressive increase across the increasing IJs density with the highest mean value of 432.3 and 54%, respectively. The two shoot growth parameters and root length showed significant inverse relationship with the increasing gall formation. Moreover, the shoot and root length were shown to be mutually dependent on each other. Suppression of shoot growth of spinach greatly affects the grower’s economy. Hence, control measures are essentially needed to ensure a better production of spinach via reducing the pre-plant density below the level of 0.156 IJs/cm3.
Resumo:
In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm-level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm-level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self-selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm-level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect-resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self-selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed-effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross-sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self-selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.
Resumo:
This paper presents the results of (a) On-farm trials (eight) over a two-year period designed to test the effectiveness of leguminous cover crops in terms of increasing maize yields in Igalaland, Nigeria. (b) A survey designed to monitor the extent of, and reasons behind, adoption of the leguminous cover crop technology in subsequent years by farmers involved, to varying degrees, in the trial programme. particular emphasis was placed on comparing adoption of leguminous cover crops with that of new crop varieties released by a non-governmental organization in the same area since the mid 1980s. While the leguminous cover crop technology boosted maize grain yields by 127 to 136% above an untreated control yield of between 141 and 171 kg ha(-1), the adoption rate (number of farmers adopting) was only 18%. By way of contrast, new crop varieties had a highly variable benefit in terms of yield advantage over local varieties, with the best average increase of around 20%. Adoption rates for new crop varieties, assessed as both the number of farmers growing the varieties and the number of plots planted to the varieties, were 40% on average. The paper discusses some key factors influencing adoption of the leguminous cover crop technology, including seed availability. Implications of these results for a local non-governmental organization, the Diocesan Development Services, concerned with promoting the leguminous cover crop technology are also discussed.
Resumo:
A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.
Resumo:
Increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) will benefit the yield of most crops. Two free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) meta-analyses have shown increases in yield of between 0 and 73% for C3 crops. Despite this large range, few crop modelling studies quantify the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We present a novel perturbed-parameter method of crop model simulation, which uses some constraints from observations, that does this. The model used is the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the general large-area model for annual crops (GLAM). The conclusions are of relevance to C3 crops in general. The increases in yield simulated by GLAM for doubled CO2 were between 16 and 62%. The difference in mean percentage increase between well-watered and water-stressed simulations was 6.8. These results were compared to FACE and controlled environment studies, and to sensitivity tests on two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., Bell, M.J., 1995. A peanut simulation model. I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. The relationship between CO2 and water stress in the experiments and in the models was examined. From a physiological perspective, water-stressed crops are expected to show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops. This expectation has been cited in literature. However, this result is not seen consistently in either the FACE studies or in the crop models. In contrast, leaf-level models of assimilation do consistently show this result. An analysis of the evidence from these models and from the data suggests that scale (canopy versus leaf), model calibration, and model complexity are factors in determining the sign and magnitude of the interaction between CO2 and water stress. We conclude from our study that the statement that 'water-stressed crops show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops' cannot be held to be universally true. We also conclude, preliminarily, that the relationship between water stress and assimilation varies with scale. Accordingly, we provide some suggestions on how studies of a similar nature, using crop models of a range of complexity, could contribute further to understanding the roles of model calibration, model complexity and scale. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Brief periods of high temperature which occur near flowering can severely reduce the yield of annual crops such as wheat and groundnut. A parameterisation of this well-documented effect is presented for groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaeaL.). This parameterisation was combined with an existing crop model, allowing the impact of season-mean temperature, and of brief high-temperature episodes at various times near flowering, to be both independently and jointly examined. The extended crop model was tested with independent data from controlled environment experiments and field experiments. The impact of total crop duration was captured, with simulated duration being within 5% of observations for the range of season-mean temperatures used (20-28 degrees C). In simulations across nine differently timed high temperature events, eight of the absolute differences between observed and simulated yield were less than 10% of the control (no-stress) yield. The parameterisation of high temperature stress also allows the simulation of heat tolerance across different genotypes. Three parameter sets, representing tolerant, moderately sensitive and sensitive genotypes were developed and assessed. The new parameterisation can be used in climate change studies to estimate the impact of heat stress on yield. It can also be used to assess the potential for adaptation of cropping systems to increased temperature threshold exceedance via the choice of genotype characteristics. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm-level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm-level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self-selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm-level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect-resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self-selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed-effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross-sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self-selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.
Resumo:
The effects of density (plant spacing) and initial plant size on vegetative growth, flowering and fruiting were studied in the strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero in their first and second years of cropping. The influence of these factors on light use and dry-matter partitioning was investigated. The size of planting material in 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero' slightly affected plant growth and yield, but this effect was not consistent and radiation use efficiency (RUE) and harvest index were unaltered. Plant spacing did not significantly affect the early stages of crop growth, but was important in determining growth and yield later in the season, this effect being more significant in the second year of cropping. Plant growth and yield per plant increased as plant spacing increased from 20 to 30 cm in both 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero', but the highest harvest index and yield per square metre were obtained at the closest spacing. Increased plant spacing also resulted in a greater leaf area and leaf area index. However, light was used less efficiently resulting in a lower RUE and lower harvest index (HI).
Resumo:
Twenty-eight field experiments on sandy-loam soils in the UK (1982-2003) are reviewed by relating the extension of the green area duration of the flag leaf (GLADF) by fungicides to effects on yield and quality of winter wheat. Over all experiments mean grain yield = 8.85t ha(-1) at 85% DM. With regards quality, mean values were: thousand grain weight (TGW) = 44.5 g; specific weight (SWT) = 76.9 kg hl(-1); crude protein concentration (CP (N x 5.7)) = 12.5 % DM; Hagberg falling number (HFN) = 285 s; and sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS)-sedimentation volume = 69ml. For each day (d) that fungicides increased GLADF there were associated average increases in yield (0.144 1 ha(-1) d(-1), se 0.0049, df = 333), TGW (0.56 gd(-1), se = 0.017) and SWT (0.22 kg hl(-1) d(-1), se 0.011). Some curvature was evident in all these relationships. When GLADF was delayed beyond 700 degrees Cd after anthesis, as was possible in cool wet seasons, responses were curtailed, or less reliable. Despite this apparent terminal sink limitation, fungicide effects on sink size, eg endosperm cell numbers or maximum water mass per grain, were not prerequisites for large effects on grain yield, TGW or SWT. Fungicide effects on CP were variable. Although the average response of CP was negative (-0.029%DM/d; se = 0.00338), this depended on cultivar and disease controlled. Controlling biotrophs such as rusts, (Puccinia spp.) tended to increase CP, whereas controlling a more necrotrophic pathogen (Septoria tritici) usually reducedCP. Irrespective of pathogen controlled, delaying senescence of the flag leaf was associated with increased nitrogen yields in the grain (averaging 2.24 kg N ha-1 d(-1), se = 0.0848) due to both increased N uptake into the above ground crop, and also more efficient remobilisation of N from leaf laminas. When sulphur availability appeared to be adequate, fungicide x cultivar interactions were similar on S as for CP, although N:S ratios tended to decline (i.e. improve for bread making) when S. tritici was controlled. On average, SDS-sedimentation volume declined (-0. 18 ml/d, se = 0.027) with increased GLADF, broadly commensurate with the average effect on CP. Hagberg falling number decreased as fungicide increased GLADF (-2.73 s/d, se = 0.178), indicating an increase in alpha-amylase activity.
Resumo:
Grain legumes are known to increase the soil mineral nitrogen (N) content, reduce the infection pressure of soil borne pathogens, and hence enhance subsequent cereals yields. Replicated field experiments were performed throughout W. Europe (Denmark, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy) to asses the effect of intercropping pea and barley on the N supply to subsequent wheat in organic cropping systems. Pea and barley were grown either as sole crops at the recommended plant density (P100 and B100, respectively) or in replacement (P50B50) or additive (P100B50) intercropping designs. In the replacement design the total relative plant density is kept constant, while the additive design uses the optimal sole crop density for pea supplementing with 'extra' barley plants. The pea and barley crops were followed by winter wheat with and without N application. Additional experiments in Denmark and the United Kingdom included subsequent spring wheat with grass-clover as catch crops. The experiment was repeated over the three cropping seasons of 2003, 2004 and 2005. Irrespective of sites and intercrop design pea-barley intercropping improved the plant resource utilization (water, light, nutrients) to grain N yield with 25-30% using the Land Equivalent ratio. In terms of absolute quantities, sole cropped pea accumulated more N in the grains as compared to the additive design followed by the replacement design and then sole cropped barley. The post harvest soil mineral N content was unaffected by the preceding crops. Under the following winter wheat, the lowest mineral N content was generally found in early spring. Variation in soil mineral N content under the winter wheat between sites and seasons indicated a greater influence of regional climatic conditions and long-term cropping history than annual preceding crop and residue quality. Just as with the soil mineral N, the subsequent crop response to preceding crop was negligible. Soil N balances showed general negative values in the 2-year period, indicating depletion of N independent of preceding crop and cropping strategy. It is recommended to develop more rotational approaches to determine subsequent crop effects in organic cropping systems, since preceding crop effects, especially when including legumes, can occur over several years of cropping.
Resumo:
The effects of intraspecific and interspecific competition on a wide range of winter wheat cultivars were investigated in two consecutive split plot field experiments. Significant reductions of grain yield at greatly reduced seed rates were observed in the first experiment, whereas increasing crop density up to 380 plants m(-2) in the second experiment failed to produce a significant yield response due to compensation through increased ears and grains per plant at lower crop densities. Appreciable weed suppression and acceptable grain yield can be achieved at crop densities between 150 and 270 plants m(-2). Reductions in final yield due to weed competition occurred in both experiments; 11.7 and 13.6% for the first and second experiment, respectively, with the onset of weed competition occurring from tittering in the first experiment and from stem elongation in the second. The possibility of enhancing crop competitiveness for weed suppression and improved grain yield is discussed.
Resumo:
The effect of adding strobilurins to a triazole (epoxiconazole) fungicide programme on the quality of a range of wheat cultivars was assessed in field experiments in three successive years. Strobilurin was applied at just flag leaf emergence (azoxystrobin) or at the start of stem extension (azoxystrobin or picoxystrobin) and again at flag leaf emergence or at flag leaf emergence and again at ear emergence (azoxystrobin). All strobilurin treatments reduced disease levels, delayed senescence of the flag leaf and consistently increased yields, thousand grain weight and specific weight. Reductions in Hagberg falling number were observed, even by fungicide applications at the start of stem extension, but effects were small compared to the variation among cultivars. Application of fungicide (triazole or strobilurin) before ear emergence increased the amount of blackpoint, but this was partly countered by applying azoxystrobin at ear emergence. The effect of fungicide on protein concentration differed over seasons and cultivar. Where they occurred. small reductions in protein concentration could be compensated for by extra application of nitrogen as foliar urea at anthesis. Foliar urea (40 kg N ha(-1)) applied at anthesis also improved Hagberg failing number and reduced blackpoint in one of the growing seasons. In one season, the effect of foliar urea at anthesis was compared with applications of granular fertiliser at flag leaf emergence. The granular treatment produced grain with more concentrated protein, while the later, foliar application produced higher specific weights. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.