Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the State Of Goiás, Brazil

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering, simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90 percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.

Intensity-duration-frequency ratios obtained from annual records and partial duration records in the locality of Pelotas - RS, Brazil

The intensity-duration-frequency occurrence ratio (IDF) is a tool commonly used for precipitation-runoff data transformation, which is established from observations of intense precipitations over a period sufficiently long as to allow the occurrence of extremes at the observation site. This study focused on verifying the existence or absence of new data, in terms of IDF ratio, by using partial duration records produced from data on maximum daily disaggregated rainfall for pre determined durations. The partial duration records considered a base value of 55 mm, totaling 279 values. After the rainfall series were established, their independence and seasonality were assessed. Using the Student's t-test statistics, it was established that no new data, as IDF ratio, emerged from the analysis of the partial duration series with the recommended base value of precipitation, as compared to the historical records.

Analysis of the relationship intensity, duration, frequency of disaggregated daily rainfall in southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The intensity, duration, and frequency relationship (IDF) of rainfall occurrence may be done through continuous records of pluviographs or daily pluviometer values . The objective of this study was to estimate the intensity-duration-frequency relationships of precipitation, using the method of daily rainfall disaggregation, at weather stations located to the southern half of the state of Rio Grande do Sul; comparing them with those obtained by rain gauge records, in places considered homogeneous from the meteorological point of view. The IDF equation parameters were estimated from daily rainfall disaggregation data, using the method of nonlinear optimization. To validate the equations confidence indices and efficiency and the "t" Student test, among maximum intensity values obtained from the disaggregated daily rainfall durations of 10; 30; 60 min and 6; 12 and 24 h and those extracted from existing IDF equations. For all studied stations and return periods, the trust index values were regarded as "optimal", i.e., greater than 0.85. The maximal intensity of rainfall obtained by daily rainfall disaggregation have similarity with those obtained by relations IDF standards. Thus, the method constitutes a feasible alternative in obtaining the IDF relationships.

Method adjustment and equation set of maximum rainfall intensity, duration and frequency in the Mato Grosso do Sul State

Due to the lack of information concerning maximum rainfall equations for most locations in Mato Grosso do Sul State, the alternative for carrying out hydraulic work projects has been information from meteorological stations closest to the location in which the project is carried out. Alternative methods, such as 24 hours rain disaggregation method from rainfall data due to greater availability of stations and longer observations can work. Based on this approach, the objective of this study was to estimate maximum rainfall equations for Mato Grosso do Sul State by adjusting the 24 hours rain disaggregation method, depending on data obtained from rain gauge stations from Dourado and Campo Grande. For this purpose, data consisting of 105 rainfall stations were used, which are available in the ANA (Water Resources Management National Agency) database. Based on the results we concluded: the intense rainfall equations obtained by pluviogram analysis showed determination coefficient above 99%; and the performance of 24 hours rain disaggregation method was classified as excellent, based on relative average error WILMOTT concordance index (1982).

Bartlett-Lewis of rectangular pulse modified model: estimate of parameters for simulation of precipitation in sub-hourly duration

The Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Modified (BLPRM) model simulates the precipitous slide in the hourly and sub-hourly and has six parameters for each of the twelve months of the year. This study aimed to evaluate the behavior of precipitation series in the duration of 15 min, obtained by simulation using the model BLPRM in situations: (a) where the parameters are estimated from a combination of statistics, creating five different sets; (b) suitability of the model to generate rain. To adjust the parameters were used rain gauge records of Pelotas/RS/Brazil, which statistics were estimated - mean, variance, covariance, autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1, the proportion of dry days in the period considered. The results showed that the parameters related to the time of onset of precipitation (λ) and intensities (μx) were the most stable and the most unstable were ν parameter, related to rain duration. The BLPRM model adequately represented the mean, variance, and proportion of the dry period of the series of precipitation lasting 15 min and, the time dependence of the heights of rain, represented autocorrelation coefficient of the first retardation was statistically less simulated series suitability for the duration of 15 min.

Factors predicting mortality in type 2 diabetes. With special reference to physical exercise, blood pressure, proteinuria, inflammation and P wave duration

Background: Type 2 diabetes patients have a 2-4 fold risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to the general population. In type 2 diabetes, several CVD risk factors have been identified, including obesity, hypertension, hyperglycemia, proteinuria, sedentary lifestyle and dyslipidemia. Although much of the excess CVD risk can be attributed to these risk factors, a significant proportion is still unknown. Aims: To assess in middle-aged type 2 diabetic subjects the joint relations of several conventional and non-conventional CVD risk factors with respect to cardiovascular and total mortality. Subjects and methods: This thesis is part of a large prospective, population based East-West type 2 diabetes study that was launched in 1982-1984. It includes 1,059 middle-aged (45-64 years old) participants. At baseline, a thorough clinical examination and laboratory measurements were performed and an ECG was recorded. The latest follow-up study was performed 18 years later in January 2001 (when the subjects were 63-81 years old). The study endpoints were total mortality and mortality due to CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Results: Physically more active patients had significantly reduced total, CVD and CHD mortality independent of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels unless proteinuria was present. Among physically active patients with a hs-CRP level >3 mg/L, the prognosis of CVD mortality was similar to patients with hs-CRP levels ≤3 mg/L. The worst prognosis was among physically inactive patients with hs-CRP levels >3 mg/L. Physically active patients with proteinuria had significantly increased total and CVD mortality by multivariate analyses. After adjustment for confounding factors, patients with proteinuria and a systolic BP <130 mmHg had a significant increase in total and CVD mortality compared to those with a systolic BP between 130 and 160 mmHg. The prognosis was similar in patients with a systolic BP <130 mmHg and ≥160 mmHg. Among patients without proteinuria, a systolic BP <130 mmHg was associated with a non-significant reduction in mortality. A P wave duration ≥114 ms was associated with a 2.5-fold increase in stroke mortality among patients with prevalent CHD or claudication. This finding persisted in multivariable analyses. Among patients with no comorbidities, there was no relationship between P wave duration and stroke mortality. Conclusions: Physical activity reduces total and CVD mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes without proteinuria or with elevated levels of hs-CRP, suggesting that the anti-inflammatory effect of physical activity can counteract increased CVD morbidity and mortality associated with a high CRP level. In patients with proteinuria the protective effect was not, however, present. Among patients with proteinuria, systolic BP <130 mmHg may increase mortality due to CVD. These results demonstrate the importance of early intervention to prevent CVD and to control all-cause mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes. The presence of proteinuria should be taken into account when defining the target systolic BP level for prevention of CVD deaths. A prolongation of the duration of the P wave was associated with increased stroke mortality among high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes. P wave duration is easy to measure and merits further examination to evaluate its importance for estimation of the risk of stroke among patients with type 2 diabetes.

Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

Toward a-state-of-the-art IR copyright management system: a needs assessment

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Morphological changes of the jejunal mucosa in protracted diarrhea and their correlation with disease duration, weight loss and serum albumin levels

The pathogenesis of protracted diarrhea is multifactorial. In developing countries, intestinal infectious processes seem to play an important role in triggering the syndrome. Thirty-four children aged 1 to 14 months, mean 6.5 months, with protracted diarrhea were studied clinically and in terms of small intestinal mucosal morphology. Mild, moderate or severe hypotrophy of the jejunal mucosa was detected in 82% of cases, and mucosal atrophy was observed in 12%. The intensity of the morphological changes of the jejunal mucosa correlated negatively with serum albumin levels. No correlation was detected between mucosal grading and duration of diarrhea or between mucosal grading and weight reported as percentile. After nutritional support was instituted, serial jejunal biopsies were obtained from 12 patients: five patients submitted to parenteral nutrition for 7 to 38 days, mean 17 days, and 7 patients receiving a hypoallergenic oral diet (semi-elemental formula, 3; chicken formula, 3; human milk, 1). In seven cases (58%) a progressive increase in villus height and a decrease in the number of inflammatory cells were noted. Recovery of the morphologic pattern was accompanied by clinical improvement in all patients

Short duration of neutralizing antibody titers after pre-exposure rabies vaccination with suckling mouse brain vaccine

The human anti-rabies pre-exposure treatment currently used in Brazil, employing a 1-ml dose of suckling mouse brain vaccine (SMBV) administered on days 0, 2, 4 and 28, was compared to an alternative treatment with two 1 ml-doses on day 0, and one 1 ml-dose injected on days 7 and 21. The latter induced higher virus-neutralizing antibody (VNA) titers on day 21. Both Brazilian rabies vaccines produced with PV or CVS rabies virus strains were tested. Two additional volunteer vaccinee groups, receiving the pre-exposure and the abbreviated post-exposure schedules recommended by the WHO using cell-culture vaccine (CCV) produced with PM rabies virus strain, were included as reference. The VNA were measured against both PV and CVS strains on days 21, 42 and 180 by the cell-culture neutralization microtest. The PV-SMBV elicited higher seroconversion rates and VNA by day 21 than the CVS-SMBV. Both, however, failed to induce a long-term immunity, since VNA titers were <0.5 IU/ml on day 180, regardless of the schedule used. Cell-culture vaccine always elicited very high VNA on all days of collection. When serum samples from people receiving mouse brain tissue were titrated against the PV and CVS strains, the VNA obtained were similar, regardless of the vaccinal strain and the virus used in the neutralization test. These results contrast with those obtained with sera from people receiving PM-CCV, whose VNA were significantly higher when tested against the CVS strain.

Duration-controlled swimming exercise training induces cardiac hypertrophy in mice

Exercise training associated with robust conditioning can be useful for the study of molecular mechanisms underlying exercise-induced cardiac hypertrophy. A swimming apparatus is described to control training regimens in terms of duration, load, and frequency of exercise. Mice were submitted to 60- vs 90-min session/day, once vs twice a day, with 2 or 4% of the weight of the mouse or no workload attached to the tail, for 4 vs 6 weeks of exercise training. Blood pressure was unchanged in all groups while resting heart rate decreased in the trained groups (8-18%). Skeletal muscle citrate synthase activity, measured spectrophotometrically, increased (45-58%) only as a result of duration and frequency-controlled exercise training, indicating that endurance conditioning was obtained. In groups which received duration and endurance conditioning, cardiac weight (14-25%) and myocyte dimension (13-20%) increased. The best conditioning protocol to promote physiological hypertrophy, our primary goal in the present study, was 90 min, twice a day, 5 days a week for 4 weeks with no overload attached to the body. Thus, duration- and frequency-controlled exercise training in mice induces a significant conditioning response qualitatively similar to that observed in humans.

Relationship between the prevalence of anti-glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies and duration of type 1 diabetes mellitus in Brazilian patients

The objective of the present study was to determine whether the duration of disease has any influence on the prevalence of glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA) in Brazilian patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and variable disease duration. We evaluated 83 patients with T1D. All participants were interviewed and blood was obtained for GADA measurement by a commercial radioimmunoassay (RSR Limited, Cardiff, UK). Four groups of patients were established according to disease duration: A) 1-5 years of disease (N = 24), B) 6-10 years of disease (N = 19), C) 11-15 years of disease (N = 25), and D) >15 years of disease (N = 15). GADA prevalence and its titers were determined in each group. GADA was positive in 38 patients (45.8%) and its frequency did not differ between the groups. The prevalence was 11/24 (45.8%), 8/19 (42.1%), 13/25 (52%), and 6/15 (40%) in groups A, B, C, and D, respectively (P = 0.874). Mean GADA titer was 12.54 ± 11.33 U/ml for the sample as a whole and 11.95 ± 11.8, 12.85 ± 12.07, 10.57 ± 8.35, and 17.45 ± 16.1 U/ml for groups A, B, C, and D, respectively (P = 0.686). Sex, age at diagnosis or ethnic background had no significant effect on GADA (+) frequency. In conclusion, in this transversal study, duration of disease did not affect significantly the prevalence of GADA or its titers in patients with T1D after one year of diagnosis. This was the first study to report this finding in the Brazilian population.

Use of the Wasserman equation in optimization of the duration of the power ramp in a cardiopulmonary exercise test: a study of Brazilian men

This study aimed to analyze the agreement between measurements of unloaded oxygen uptake and peak oxygen uptake based on equations proposed by Wasserman and on real measurements directly obtained with the ergospirometry system. We performed an incremental cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), which was applied to two groups of sedentary male subjects: one apparently healthy group (HG, n=12) and the other had stable coronary artery disease (n=16). The mean age in the HG was 47±4 years and that in the coronary artery disease group (CG) was 57±8 years. Both groups performed CPET on a cycle ergometer with a ramp-type protocol at an intensity that was calculated according to the Wasserman equation. In the HG, there was no significant difference between measurements predicted by the formula and real measurements obtained in CPET in the unloaded condition. However, at peak effort, a significant difference was observed between oxygen uptake (V˙O2)peak(predicted)and V˙O2peak(real)(nonparametric Wilcoxon test). In the CG, there was a significant difference of 116.26 mL/min between the predicted values by the formula and the real values obtained in the unloaded condition. A significant difference in peak effort was found, where V˙O2peak(real)was 40% lower than V˙O2peak(predicted)(nonparametric Wilcoxon test). There was no agreement between the real and predicted measurements as analyzed by Lin’s coefficient or the Bland and Altman model. The Wasserman formula does not appear to be appropriate for prediction of functional capacity of volunteers. Therefore, this formula cannot precisely predict the increase in power in incremental CPET on a cycle ergometer.

Determinants of bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms

The present thesis examines the determinants of the bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms. Using a sample of Canadian firms that filed for bankruptcy protection between the calendar years 1992 and 2009, we fmd that the firm age, the industry adjusted operating margin, the default spread, the industrial production growth rate or the interest rate are influential factors on determining the length of the protection period. Older firms tend to stay longer under protection from creditors. As older firms have more complicated structures and issues to settle, the risk of exiting soon the protection (the hazard rate) is small. We also find that firms that perform better than their benchmark as measured by the industry they belong to, tend to leave quickly the bankruptcy protection state. We conclude that the fate of relatively successful companies is determined faster. Moreover, we report that it takes less time to achieve a final solution to firms under bankrupt~y when the default spread is low or when the appetite for risk is high. Conversely, during periods of high default spreads and flight for quality, it takes longer time to resolve the bankruptcy issue. This last finding may suggest that troubled firms should place themselves under protection when spreads are low. However, this ignores the endogeneity issue: high default spread may cause and incidentally reflect higher bankruptcy rates in the economy. Indeed, we find that bankruptcy protection is longer during economic downturns. We explain this relation by the natural increase in default rate among firms (and individuals) during economically troubled times. Default spreads are usually larger during these harsh periods as investors become more risk averse since their wealth shrinks. Using a Log-logistic hazard model, we also fmd that firms that file under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) protection spend longer time restructuring than firms that filed under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA). As BIA is more statutory and less flexible, solutions can be reached faster by court orders.

Copyright in the Stacks: The Chilling Effects of Unclear Copyright Interpretations in the Canadian Academic Library

Presented at the Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association, Brock University, St. Catharines, Ontario, May 27, 2014