Representación política y confianza institucional : Una visión latinoamericana

¿Bajo qué condiciones los ciudadanos desconfían de las instituciones políticas? Las respuestas a esta pregunta son variadas y pueden ubicarse en dos grandes corrientes: la culturalista que destaca la importancia de los valores culturales y b) la racional culturalista, según la cual la desconfianza es resultado de los deficientes desempeños de los gobiernos democráticos. La presente investigación analiza tres diferentes dimensiones de la performance, vinculadas todas ellas al concepto de representación y relacionadas con etapas, actividades y actores específicos: 1. la calidad institucional (relativa a las reglas de juego y su funcionamiento); 2. la calidad de la política (relativa a los a la calidad de los procesos de deliberación, negociación y sanción de leyes, así como a la productividad legislativa); 3. la calidad de los resultados (vinculada al impacto de las políticas públicas sobre el bienestar social). Si bien se presentan algunos datos estadísticos, la evidencia empírica es muy preliminar

Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using NatureServe conservation status ranks

Assessments for assigning the conservation status of threatened species that are based purely on subjective judgements become problematic because assessments can be influenced by hidden assumptions, personal biases and perceptions of risks, making the assessment process difficult to repeat. This can result in inconsistent assessments and misclassifications, which can lead to a lack of confidence in species assessments. It is almost impossible to Understand an expert's logic or visualise the underlying reasoning behind the many hidden assumptions used throughout the assessment process. In this paper, we formalise the decision making process of experts, by capturing their logical ordering of information, their assumptions and reasoning, and transferring them into a set of decisions rules. We illustrate this through the process used to evaluate the conservation status of species under the NatureServe system (Master, 1991). NatureServe status assessments have been used for over two decades to set conservation priorities for threatened species throughout North America. We develop a conditional point-scoring method, to reflect the current subjective process. In two test comparisons, 77% of species' assessments using the explicit NatureServe method matched the qualitative assessments done subjectively by NatureServe staff. Of those that differed, no rank varied by more than one rank level under the two methods. In general, the explicit NatureServe method tended to be more precautionary than the subjective assessments. The rank differences that emerged from the comparisons may be due, at least in part, to the flexibility of the qualitative system, which allows different factors to be weighted on a species-by-species basis according to expert judgement. The method outlined in this study is the first documented attempt to explicitly define a transparent process for weighting and combining factors under the NatureServe system. The process of eliciting expert knowledge identifies how information is combined and highlights any inconsistent logic that may not be obvious in Subjective decisions. The method provides a repeatable, transparent, and explicit benchmark for feedback, further development, and improvement. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Mixed model formulations for multi-environment trials

When studying genotype X environment interaction in multi-environment trials, plant breeders and geneticists often consider one of the effects, environments or genotypes, to be fixed and the other to be random. However, there are two main formulations for variance component estimation for the mixed model situation, referred to as the unconstrained-parameters (UP) and constrained-parameters (CP) formulations. These formulations give different estimates of genetic correlation and heritability as well as different tests of significance for the random effects factor. The definition of main effects and interactions and the consequences of such definitions should be clearly understood, and the selected formulation should be consistent for both fixed and random effects. A discussion of the practical outcomes of using the two formulations in the analysis of balanced data from multi-environment trials is presented. It is recommended that the CP formulation be used because of the meaning of its parameters and the corresponding variance components. When managed (fixed) environments are considered, users will have more confidence in prediction for them but will not be overconfident in prediction in the target (random) environments. Genetic gain (predicted response to selection in the target environments from the managed environments) is independent of formulation.

Phylogeography of an east Australian wet-forest bird, the satin bowerbird (Ptilonorhynchus violaceus), derived from mtDNA, and its relationship to morphology

Australian wet forests have undergone a contraction in range since the mid-Tertiary, resulting in a fragmented distribution along the east Australian coast incorporating several biogeographical barriers. Variation in mitochondrial DNA and morphology within the satin bowerbird was used to examine biogeographical structure throughout almost the entire geographical extent of these wet forest fragments. We used several genetic analysis techniques, nested clade and barrier analyses, that use patterns inherent in the data to describe the spatial structuring. We also examined the validity of the two previously described satin bowerbird subspecies that are separated by well-defined biogeographical barriers and tested existing hypotheses that propose divergence occurs within each subspecies across two other barriers, the Black Mountain corridor and the Hunter Valley. Our data showed that the two subspecies were genetically and morphologically divergent. The northern subspecies, found in the Wet Tropics region of Queensland, showed little divergence across the Black Mountain corridor, a barrier found to be significant in other Wet Tropics species. Biogeographical structure was found through southeastern Australia; three geographically isolated populations showed genetic differentiation, although minimal divergence was found across the proposed Hunter Valley barrier. A novel barrier was found separating inland and coastal populations in southern New South Wales. Little morphological divergence was observed within subspecies, bar a trend for birds to be larger in the more southerly parts of the species' range. The results from both novel and well-established genetic analyses were similar, providing greater confidence in the conclusions about spatial divergence and supporting the validity of these new techniques.

English teachers' choice of language for publication: Qualitative insights from Bangladesh

The aim of this small-scale research was to gain some understanding of Bangladeshi English language teachers' language preference for publication purposes & the extent of the use of Bangla (Bengali), the L1, in their professional practice. Qualitative data for the study were gathered by means of a self-produced questionnaire. Results show that about three-quarters of the teachers published or would publish entirely in English because they believed that it was, among other reasons, the usual professional practice. More importantly, a number of teachers stated that they felt more comfortable writing academic essays in English. Regarding the use of L1, all 37 respondents pointed out that they used it sparingly in the classroom, & only a small number considered it a barrier in learning English, the L2. While emphasising the study's limitations, the paper suggests that English teachers' lack of confidence in L1 academic writing may be seen as indicating the potential direction of a slowly emerging individual bilingualism among university teachers of English. However, the paper also argues that the emergence of this potential bilingualism can be seen only at the individual rather than societal level, &, within the academic context, only in the limited domain of academic writing. Figures, References. Adapted from the source document

Crisis management and risk communication: Why the food industry must get it right

There is public unease about food-related issues including food additives, food poisoning bacteria and GM ingredients. The public wants evidence of no risks, but all regulators can ever offer is no evidence of risk or evidence of a very small risk. The situation is complex because experts and non-experts can perceive the same risk in vastly different ways. The way in which the food industry manages crises and communicates risks will determine the public acceptance and success of new technologies such as GM foods and nanomaterials. There is a need for the food industry (including regulators and scientific experts) to sharpen up their risk communication skills to ensure that technical innovations are accepted by consumers, and crises such as food recalls do not undermine the public's confidence in the food industry. The AIFST has a key role to play in driving the risk communication process and allaying public unease about food-related issues.

Virtual training environments to improve train driver's crisis decision making

This paper reports on a current research project in which virtual reality simulators are being investigated as a means of simulating hazardous Rail work conditions in order to allow train drivers to practice decision-making under stress. When working under high stress conditions train drivers need to move beyond procedural responses into a response activated through their own problem-solving and decision-making skills. This study focuses on the use of stress inoculation training which aims to build driver’s confidence in the use of new decision-making skills by being repeatedly required to respond to hazardous driving conditions. In particular, the study makes use of a train cab driving simulator to reproduce potentially stress inducing real-world scenarios. Initial pilot research has been undertaken in which drivers have experienced the training simulation and subsequently completed surveys on the level of immersion experienced. Concurrently drivers have also participated in a velocity perception experiment designed to objectively measure the fidelity of the virtual training environment. Baseline data, against which decision-making skills post training will be measured, is being gathered via cognitive task analysis designed to identify primary decision requirements for specific rail events. While considerable efforts have been invested in improving Virtual Reality technology, little is known about how to best use this technology for training personnel to respond to workplace conditions in the Rail Industry. To enable the best use of simulators for training in the Rail context the project aims to identify those factors within virtual reality that support required learning outcomes and use this information to design training simulations that reliably and safely train staff in required workplace accident response skills.

MALAQUIAS, MENSAGEIRO DA JUSTIÇA:UM ESTUDO A PARTIR DO QUARTO ORÁCULO (2,17-3,5)

O livro de Malaquias apresenta oráculos que conservam informações relevantes do período pós exílico sob o domínio da Pérsia e, especialmente, os problemas religiosos focalizando a displicência dos sacerdotes no cumprimento de suas funções e os problemas sociais apontando para um amplo movimento de opressão externa e interna. Esta pesquisa buscou verificar, no primeiro capítulo, como a mensagem de Malaquias através de sua forma e conteúdos visava aplacar as insatisfações internas dos grupos que habitavam o território de Judá. Neste capítulo, foram abordadas as discussões histórico-literárias sobre data, autoria, destinatários, forma do anúncio. Ainda procurou-se realizar levantamentos históricos verificando o sistema e as estruturas de opressão dos persas no território de Judá e também as faces da reorganização da sociedade de Judá. O segundo capítulo enfatizou, mais propriamente, o trabalho exegético no quarto oráculo (2,17-3,5). Neste pode-se verificar uma síntese dos temas centrais da mensagem de Malaquias: O juízo divino que viria pela negligência religiosa e que exigia compromissos com a justiça prática na vida do povo. A partir das discussões exegéticas buscou-se verificar como o profeta apresentou ao povo e aos sacerdotes quais seriam os agentes e as ações transformadoras que Javé promoveria para restaurar a justiça e o culto purificado. O terceiro capítulo apresenta um tema recorrente nos oráculos do livro de Malaquias: a justiça. Para isso, foram analisadas três perícopes que tratam o tema da justiça enfocadamente, as influências do sistema judicial persa na prática da justiça cotidiana em Judá e a realidade de opressão nos sistema de parentesco entre as famílias (clãs) que habitavam o território de Judá - (2,10-16; 2,17-3,5 e 3,13-21). A pesquisa de Malaquias aponta para um profeta engajado política e socialmente. O Mensageiro manteve os ideais proféticos e desejou reacender os valores da aliança entre o povo e fortalecer a confiança na ação de Javé que restauraria a justiça na prática cotidiana.(AU)

CENTRO DE ATENÇÃO PSICOSSOCIAL ÁLCOOL E DROGAS (CAPS-ad): A EX-PERIÊNCIA DOS PROFISSIONAIS DE SAÚDE MENTAL NUMA UNIDADE DA BAIXA MOGIANA

O uso abusivo de substâncias psicoativas tem sido objeto de preocupação e alvo de políticas públicas de enfrentamento, praticamente no mundo todo. O reconhecimento de que tal forma de uso acarreta relevantes consequências econômicas, sociais, acadêmicas, familiares e de saúde física e mental, tem levado as autoridades competentes a criar programas que visam a fazer frente à expansão desse fenômeno. No Brasil, após um período em que o tratamento oferecido aos usuários de substâncias era predominantemente asilar, vem ocorrendo mudanças significativas no modelo de atenção a essa população, notadamente com a implantação dos Centros de Atenção Psicossocial Álcool e Drogas, dentro da estrutura do Sistema Único de Saúde SUS. O presente estudo tem por objetivo identificar e analisar a percepção dos pro-fissionais de saúde mental que atuam no CAPS-ad, sobre a pertinência e a eficácia das abor-dagens e técnicas por eles utilizadas no atendimento aos usuários de substâncias psicoativas. Visa também a conhecer a formação acadêmica e complementar desses trabalhadores; a natu-reza das relações profissionais que se estabelecem entre os membros da equipe; os resultados obtidos com o trabalho e o grau de satisfação dos profissionais com esses resultados. Objetiva ainda a identificar a representação que eles fazem desses usuários e o grau de confiança na proposta CAPS-ad. Para a coleta de dados utilizou-se a técnica de entrevistas semi-estruturadas e o tratamento dos dados foi realizado com base na técnica de Análise de Conte-údo de Laurence Bardin. A investigação revelou que os profissionais não têm formação para lidar com dependência química, que a equipe não atua de forma interdisciplinar e que o trata-mento é realizado de forma aleatória e com baixa eficácia. A representação que fazem do usu-ário é a de um indivíduo doente e ou vitimado pelas condições familiares e sócio-econômicas. Constatou-se também que a maioria dos profissionais tem dúvidas quanto à adequação do CAPS-ad como proposta para cuidar dos usuários de álcool e outras drogas.

A VIVÊNCIA DO ONCOLOGISTA NA INFORMAÇÃO DO DIAGNÓSTICO DE CÂNCER À PACIENTE

O presente estudo teve como objetivo, por meio de uma pesquisa qualitativa segundo a abordagem fenomenológica existencial, investigar os pensamentos, sentimentos e atitudes do oncologista na informação do diagnóstico de câncer à paciente. Foram realizadas 5 entrevistas semi-dirigidas com oncologistas que atendem em consultório particular, e foi delimitada a análise compreensiva fenomenológica do conteúdo. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que: A informação do diagnóstico de câncer de mama para pacientes jovens em idade reprodutiva foi considerada a mais marcante para os médicos, lhes causando maior preocupação, medo e tristeza, devido às limitações impostas pela doença aos planos de vida da paciente e às questões da maternidade. Os entrevistados referiram que em qualquer caso, o momento da notícia lhes repercute emocionalmente, pela vivência do sentimento de tristeza, ou por fantasias relacionadas à responsabilidade pela doença. Eles apontaram como mais difícil nesse processo, o confronto com as reações emocionais da paciente e falar sobre o câncer utilizando palavras para amenizar o impacto dessa informação. Diante dessas dificuldades, a evolução da medicina, a possibilidade de cirurgia conservadora e a reconstrução mamária foram consideradas atenuantes. Os médicos afirmaram que informam a paciente de maneira clara, objetiva e gradativa, mas nem todos eles utilizam sempre a palavra câncer . Procuram encorajar a paciente com otimismo e solidariedade, engajando-a no tratamento como participante ativa. Além disso, sentem-se responsáveis por motivar aquela que demonstra desânimo ou que reluta em seguir o tratamento. Eles percebem que a partir da informação do diagnóstico a paciente estabelece um vínculo de confiança e dependência, e identificam que em alguns casos eles também se vinculam à paciente. Entretanto, reconhecem que desse vínculo deriva um desgaste emocional que os leva ao questionamento sobre a escolha de sua especialidade. Constatou-se que alguns oncologistas podem emitir sua opinião sobre determinado diagnóstico, às vezes, a pedido da paciente, mas que ao errarem nesse pré-julgamento, evidenciam sentimentos de impotência, ou fracasso, ou culpa, por não se prepararem, nem à paciente, para o momento da informação. Os casos em que a família interfere com questionamentos ou com o pedido de ocultação da informação não foram vistos por eles de modo negativo, contudo, o pedido de ocultação nem sempre é acatado. Os entrevistados referiram algum tipo de aprendizado através do contato com a paciente oncológica, ou por meio da reavaliação de seus valores morais, ou da reflexão sobre sua própria finitude. Particularmente nos casos de câncer avançado ou terminal, esse aprendizado abrangeu o apoio nos momentos que precedem a morte, ou o reconhecimento da própria impotência. Conclusão: A análise dos resultados revelou os conflitos e as dúvidas do médico como ser ético , que assume os riscos ao escolher quanto, quando e como informar o diagnóstico à paciente, sua consciência de culpabilidade, a ansiedade existencial desencadeada pelas reações emocionais da paciente, a manifestação de sua maneira preocupada de existir no mundo, a busca pelo encontro autêntico e criativo, a subjetividade utilizada como caminho para a compreensão do ser doente e a possibilidade do fracasso de um projeto resultar em frustração e num rebaixamento temporário da confiança em sua própria capacidade. Desse modo, esse trabalho demonstra a inevitável influência dos fatores subjetivos na atitude do médico que informa o diagnóstico de câncer para sua paciente e que esse processo está muito além de qualquer pretensa objetividade.

Attitudes of young people with diabetes to an Internet-based virtual clinic

We assessed the feasibility of developing a virtual diabetes clinic for young people, using the Internet. The proposed content of the site would be based on self-efficacy theory, aiming to develop confidence in self-management of diabetes. A questionnaire about the proposed Website was delivered to 72 patients who attended a young person’s outpatient clinic in a district hospital. Thirty-nine replies were received, a response rate of 54%. The mean age of the respondents was 13 years. A positive attitude to the potential clinic was reported by 95% of respondents. The items rated as most useful were: quick and easy access to up-todate information about diabetes; the opportunity to ask an expert; good graphics; easy navigation; interactivity. Responses to open questions indicated that 24-hour access and anonymity in asking questions were also valued. A virtual clinic appears to be a possible method of health-care delivery to young people with diabetes.

Flow field analysis of some mixing and conveying screw element regions, within a closely intermeshing, co-rotating twin-screw extruder.

Grafting of antioxidants and other modifiers onto polymers by reactive extrusion, has been performed successfully by the Polymer Processing and Performance Group at Aston University. Traditionally the optimum conditions for the grafting process have been established within a Brabender internal mixer. Transfer of this batch process to a continuous processor, such as an extruder, has, typically, been empirical. To have more confidence in the success of direct transfer of the process requires knowledge of, and comparison between, residence times, mixing intensities, shear rates and flow regimes in the internal mixer and in the continuous processor.The continuous processor chosen for the current work in the closely intermeshing, co-rotating twin-screw extruder (CICo-TSE). CICo-TSEs contain screw elements that convey material with a self-wiping action and are widely used for polymer compounding and blending. Of the different mixing modules contained within the CICo-TSE, the trilobal elements, which impose intensive mixing, and the mixing discs, which impose extensive mixing, are of importance when establishing the intensity of mixing. In this thesis, the flow patterns within the various regions of the single-flighted conveying screw elements and within both the trilobal element and mixing disc zones of a Betol BTS40 CICo-TSE, have been modelled using the computational fluid dynamics package Polyflow. A major obstacle encountered when solving the flow problem within all of these sets of elements, arises from both the complex geometry and the time-dependent flow boundaries as the elements rotate about their fixed axes. Simulation of the time dependent boundaries was overcome by selecting a number of sequential 2D and 3D geometries, used to represent partial mixing cycles. The flow fields were simulated using the ideal rheological properties of polypropylene and characterised in terms of velocity vectors, shear stresses generated and a parameter known as the mixing efficiency. The majority of the large 3D simulations were performed on the Cray J90 supercomputer situated at the Rutherford-Appleton laboratories, with pre- and postprocessing operations achieved via a Silicon Graphics Indy workstation. A mechanical model was constructed consisting of various CICo-TSE elements rotating within a transparent outer barrel. A technique has been developed using coloured viscous clays whereby the flow patterns and mixing characteristics within the CICo-TSE may be visualised. In order to test and verify the simulated predictions, the patterns observed within the mechanical model were compared with the flow patterns predicted by the computational model. The flow patterns within the single-flighted conveying screw elements in particular, showed good agreement between the experimental and simulated results.

The design of environmental test rigs

Product reliability and its environmental performance have become critical elements within a product's specification and design. To obtain a high level of confidence in the reliability of the design it is customary to test the design under realistic conditions in a laboratory. The objective of the work is to examine the feasibility of designing mechanical test rigs which exhibit prescribed dynamical characteristics. The design is then attached to the rig and excitation is applied to the rig, which then transmits representative vibration levels into the product. The philosophical considerations made at the outset of the project are discussed as they form the basis for the resulting design methodologies. It is attempted to directly identify the parameters of a test rig from the spatial model derived during the system identification process. It is shown to be impossible to identify a feasible test rig design using this technique. A finite dimensional optimal design methodology is developed which identifies the parameters of a discrete spring/mass system which is dynamically similar to a point coordinate on a continuous structure. This design methodology is incorporated within another procedure which derives a structure comprising a continuous element and a discrete system. This methodology is used to obtain point coordinate similarity for two planes of motion, which is validated by experimental tests. A limitation of this approach is that it is impossible to achieve multi-coordinate similarity due to an interaction of the discrete system and the continuous element at points away from the coordinate of interest. During the work the importance of the continuous element is highlighted and a design methodology is developed for continuous structures. The design methodology is based upon distributed parameter optimal design techniques and allows an initial poor design estimate to be moved in a feasible direction towards an acceptable design solution. Cumulative damage theory is used to provide a quantitative method of assessing the quality of dynamic similarity. It is shown that the combination of modal analysis techniques and cumulative damage theory provides a feasible design synthesis methodology for representative test rigs.

An advanced real-time predictive maintenance framework for large scale machine systems

This thesis introduces and develops a novel real-time predictive maintenance system to estimate the machine system parameters using the motion current signature. Recently, motion current signature analysis has been addressed as an alternative to the use of sensors for monitoring internal faults of a motor. A maintenance system based upon the analysis of motion current signature avoids the need for the implementation and maintenance of expensive motion sensing technology. By developing nonlinear dynamical analysis for motion current signature, the research described in this thesis implements a novel real-time predictive maintenance system for current and future manufacturing machine systems. A crucial concept underpinning this project is that the motion current signature contains infor­mation relating to the machine system parameters and that this information can be extracted using nonlinear mapping techniques, such as neural networks. Towards this end, a proof of con­cept procedure is performed, which substantiates this concept. A simulation model, TuneLearn, is developed to simulate the large amount of training data required by the neural network ap­proach. Statistical validation and verification of the model is performed to ascertain confidence in the simulated motion current signature. Validation experiment concludes that, although, the simulation model generates a good macro-dynamical mapping of the motion current signature, it fails to accurately map the micro-dynamical structure due to the lack of knowledge regarding performance of higher order and nonlinear factors, such as backlash and compliance. Failure of the simulation model to determine the micro-dynamical structure suggests the pres­ence of nonlinearity in the motion current signature. This motivated us to perform surrogate data testing for nonlinearity in the motion current signature. Results confirm the presence of nonlinearity in the motion current signature, thereby, motivating the use of nonlinear tech­niques for further analysis. Outcomes of the experiment show that nonlinear noise reduction combined with the linear reverse algorithm offers precise machine system parameter estimation using the motion current signature for the implementation of the real-time predictive maintenance system. Finally, a linear reverse algorithm, BJEST, is developed and applied to the motion current signature to estimate the machine system parameters.

A prediction of outcomes: a psychological investigation into cognitive and affective development within the framework of adult literacy provision

This investigation seeks to explore the hypothesis, derived from observation and practice, that there is a strong relationship between the development of literacy skills and the growth of confidence in adult literacy students. Implicit in the developmental approach is the notion of progression towards some cognitive goal. Such a goal necessitates the establishment of a base line of existing attainment, together with subsequent assessment so that progress and development can be measured. The study includes an evaluation of existing formal and informal methods of initial and subsequent assessment and diagnosis available at the time for Adult Literacy Scheme Co-ordinators. Underlying the funding by Cheshire County Council for the project is the assumption that the results will be available for all practitioners and that the tools of measurement may be used by other Adult Literacy Co-ordinators in the County. It is intended, therefore, that this research should result in practical outcomes in which methods of assessment will involve active participation by students as well as by tutors, becoming part of the learning process. It is hypothesised that this kind of co-operation could lead ultimately to self-directed learning and student-independence. For the purposes of this research, a balance is attempted in the use of assessment tools, between standardised tests and informal methods. The study provides facts about students! reading habits; as well as their reading levels, their spelling levels, their handwriting, their writing skills and their writing habits. The study seeks to show the students' feelings towards education, their educational attainments and the type of school which they attended. The study also attempts to come to some measurement of those aspects of student personality which relate to confidence, by means of tests and questionnaires. The study concludes with an examination of the link between cognitive and affective progress.