How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Web-assisted tobacco intervention in Portuguese : intentions to make behavioural changes and behavioural changes

ABSTRACT - The problem of how to support “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behaviour changes” (BC) in smoking cessation when there is a scarcity of resources is a pressing issue in public health terms. The present research focuses on the use of information and communications technologies and their role in smoking cessation. It is developed in Portugal after the ratification of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (on 8 November 2005). The prevalence of smokers over fifteen years of age within the population stood at 20.9% (30.9% for men and 11.8% for women). While the strategy of helping people to quit smoking has been emphasised at National Health Service (NHS) level, the uptake of cessation assistance has exceeded the capacity of the service. This induced the search of new theoretical and practical venues to offer alternative options to people willing to stop smoking. Among these, the National Health Plan (NHP) of Portugal (2004-2010), identifies the use of information technologies in smoking cessation. eHealth and the importance of health literacy as a means of empowering people to make behavioural changes is recurrently considered an option worth investigating. The overall objective of this research is to understand, in the Portuguese context, the use of the Internet to help people to stop smoking. Research questions consider factors that may contribute to “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behavioural changes” (BC) while using a Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP). Also consideration is given to the trade-off on the use of the Web as a tool for smoking cessation: can it reach a vast number of people for a small cost (efficiency) demonstrating to work in the domain of smoking cessation (efficacy)”? In addition to the introduction, there is a second chapter in which the use of tobacco is discussed as a public health menace. The health gains achieved by stopping smoking and the means of quitting are also examined, as is the use of the Internet in smoking cessation. Then, several research issues are introduced. These include background theory and the theoretical framework for the Sense of Coherence. The research model is also discussed. A presentation of the methods, materials and of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) follows. In chapter four the results of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) are presented. This study is divided into two sections. The first describes results related to quality control in relation to the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) and gives an overview of its users. Of these, 3,150 answered initial eligibility questions. In the end, 1,463 met all eligibility requirements, completed intake, decided on a day to quit smoking (Dday) and declared their “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) while a second targeted group of 650 did not decide on a Dday. With two quit attempts made before joining the platform, most of the participants had experienced past failures while wanting to stop. The smoking rate averaged 21 cigarettes per day. With a mean age of 35, of the participants 55% were males. Among several other considerations, gender and the Sense of Coherence (SOC) influenced the success of participants in their IBC and endeavour to set quit dates. The results of comparing males and females showed that, for current smokers, establishing a Dday was related to gender differences, not favouring males (OR=0.76, p<0.005). Belonging to higher Socio-economic strata (SES) was associated with the intention to consider IBC (when compared to lower SES condition) (OR=1.57, p<0.001) and higher number of school years (OR=0.70, p<0.005) favoured the decision to smoking cessation. Those who demonstrated higher confidence in their likelihood of success in stopping in the shortest time had a higher rate of setting a Dday (OR=0.51, p<0.001). There were differences between groups in IBC reflecting the high and low levels of the SOC score (OR=1.43, p=0.006), as those who considered setting a Dday had higher levels of SOC. After adjusting for all variables, stages of readiness to change and SOC were kept in the model. This is the first Arm of this research where the focus is a discussion of the system’s implications for the participants’ “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC). Moreover, a second section of this study (second Arm) offers input collected from 77 in-depth interviews with the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) users. Here, “Behaviour Change” (BC) and the usability of the platform are explored a year after IBC was declared. A percentage of 32.9% of self-reported, 12-month quitters in continuous abstinence from smoking from Dday to the 12-month follow- up point of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) has been assessed. Comparing the Sense of Coherence (SOC) scores of participants by their respective means, according to the two groups, there was a significant difference in these scores of non smokers (BC) (M=144,66, SD=22,52) and Sense of Coherence (SOC) of smokers (noBC) (M=131,51, SD=21,43) p=0.014. This WATIP strategy and its contents benefit from the strengthening of the smoker’s sense of coherence (SOC), so that the person’s progress towards a life without tobacco may be experienced as comprehensible, manageable and meaningful. In this sample the sense of coherence (SOC) effect is moderate although it is associated with the day to quit smoking (Dday). Some of the limitations of this research have to do with self-selection bias, sample size (power) and self-reporting (no biochemical validation). The enrolment of participants was therefore not representative of the smoking population. It is not possible to verify the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) evaluation of external validity; consequently, the results obtained cannot be applied generalized. No participation bias is provided. Another limitation of this study is the associated limitations of interviews. Interviewees’ perception that fabricating answers could benefit them more than telling the simple truth in response to questions is a risk that is not evaluated (with no external validation like measuring participants’ carbon monoxide levels). What emerges in this analysis is the relevance of the process that leads to the establishment of the quit day (Dday) to stop using tobacco. In addition, technological issues, when tailoring is the focus, are key elements for scrutiny. The high number of dropouts of users of the web platform mandates future research that should concentrate on the matters of the user-centred design of portals. The focus on gains in health through patient-centred care needs more research, so that technology usability be considered within the context of best practices in smoking cessation.

The new mobility paradigm: transformation of value chain and business models

We would like to thank Philipp Schwarz and Julia Gückel for their dedicated support in preparing this paper and our colleagues and students of the School of Engineering and the Business School for our fruitful discussions.

Behavioural assessment impacts on the performance results

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Evaluation of chemotherapeutic potential of natural extracts using 3D models of colon cancer

Dissertation to obtain master degree in Biotechnology

Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Corporate finance in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets: A survey

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Microscopy image segmentation by active contour models

In this thesis a semi-automated cell analysis system is described through image processing. To achieve this, an image processing algorithm was studied in order to segment cells in a semi-automatic way. The main goal of this analysis is to increase the performance of cell image segmentation process, without affecting the results in a significant way. Even though, a totally manual system has the ability of producing the best results, it has the disadvantage of taking too long and being repetitive, when a large number of images need to be processed. An active contour algorithm was tested in a sequence of images taken by a microscope. This algorithm, more commonly known as snakes, allowed the user to define an initial region in which the cell was incorporated. Then, the algorithm would run several times, making the initial region contours to converge to the cell boundaries. With the final contour, it was possible to extract region properties and produce statistical data. This data allowed to say that this algorithm produces similar results to a purely manual system but at a faster rate. On the other hand, it is slower than a purely automatic way but it allows the user to adjust the contour, making it more versatile and tolerant to image variations.

Participatory Surveillance and Mathematical Models in Epidemiologic Research: Successes and Challenges

Theoretical epidemiology aims to understand the dynamics of diseases in populations and communities. Biological and behavioral processes are abstracted into mathematical formulations which aim to reproduce epidemiological observations. In this thesis a new system for the self-reporting of syndromic data — Influenzanet — is introduced and assessed. The system is currently being extended to address greater challenges of monitoring the health and well-being of tropical communities.(...)

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis:Mammalian Cell Models,Copper-Zinc Superoxide Dismutaseand Biological Characteristics

"Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is the most severe and common adult onset disorder that affects motor neurons in the spinal cord, brainstem and cortex, resulting in progressive weakness and death from respiratory failure within two to five years of symptoms onset(...)

Enterprise reference lexicon building from business models

Nowadays, a significant increase on the demand for interoperable systems for exchanging data in business collaborative environments has been noticed. Consequently, cooperation agreements between each of the involved enterprises have been brought to light. However, due to the fact that even in a same community or domain, there is a big variety of knowledge representation not semantically coincident, which embodies the existence of interoperability problems in the enterprises information systems that need to be addressed. Moreover, in relation to this, most organizations face other problems about their information systems, as: 1) domain knowledge not being easily accessible by all the stakeholders (even intra-enterprise); 2) domain knowledge not being represented in a standard format; 3) and even if it is available in a standard format, it is not supported by semantic annotations or described using a common and understandable lexicon. This dissertation proposes an approach for the establishment of an enterprise reference lexicon from business models. It addresses the automation in the information models mapping for the reference lexicon construction. It aggregates a formal and conceptual representation of the business domain, with a clear definition of the used lexicon to facilitate an overall understanding by all the involved stakeholders, including non-IT personnel.

Learning facial-expression models with crowdsourcing

The computational power is increasing day by day. Despite that, there are some tasks that are still difficult or even impossible for a computer to perform. For example, while identifying a facial expression is easy for a human, for a computer it is an area in development. To tackle this and similar issues, crowdsourcing has grown as a way to use human computation in a large scale. Crowdsourcing is a novel approach to collect labels in a fast and cheap manner, by sourcing the labels from the crowds. However, these labels lack reliability since annotators are not guaranteed to have any expertise in the field. This fact has led to a new research area where we must create or adapt annotation models to handle these weaklylabeled data. Current techniques explore the annotators’ expertise and the task difficulty as variables that influences labels’ correction. Other specific aspects are also considered by noisy-labels analysis techniques. The main contribution of this thesis is the process to collect reliable crowdsourcing labels for a facial expressions dataset. This process consists in two steps: first, we design our crowdsourcing tasks to collect annotators labels; next, we infer the true label from the collected labels by applying state-of-art crowdsourcing algorithms. At the same time, a facial expression dataset is created, containing 40.000 images and respective labels. At the end, we publish the resulting dataset.

Real-time collaborative editing of OutSystems DSL models

Real-time collaborative editing systems are common nowadays, and their advantages are widely recognized. Examples of such systems include Google Docs, ShareLaTeX, among others. This thesis aims to adopt this paradigm in a software development environment. The OutSystems visual language lends itself very appropriate to this kind of collaboration, since the visual code enables a natural flow of knowledge between developers regarding the developed code. Furthermore, communication and coordination are simplified. This proposal explores the field of collaboration on a very structured and rigid model, where collaboration is made through the copy-modify-merge paradigm, in which a developer gets its own private copy from the shared repository, modifies it in isolation and later uploads his changes to be merged with modifications concurrently produced by other developers. To this end, we designed and implemented an extension to the OutSystems Platform, in order to enable real-time collaborative editing. The solution guarantees consistency among the artefacts distributed across several developers working on the same project. We believe that it is possible to achieve a much more intense collaboration over the same models with a low negative impact on the individual productivity of each developer.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Simplified wind turbine models for wind energy integration into power systems

This paper analyses the boundaries of simplified wind turbine models used to represent the behavior of wind turbines in order to conduct power system stability studies. Based on experimental measurements, the response of recent simplified (also known as generic) wind turbine models that are currently being developed by the International Standard IEC 61400-27 is compared to complex detailed models elaborated by wind turbine manufacturers. This International Standard, whose Technical Committee was convened in October 2009, is focused on defining generic simulation models for both wind turbines (Part 1) and wind farms (Part 2). The results of this work provide an improved understanding of the usability of generic models for conducting power system simulations.