Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

Doutoramento em Gestão

Gender Differences in the Influence of Protective Factors, Risk Factors, and Health Risk Behaviors on HIV Risk Behaviors Among Youth in South Florida

Adolescents engage in a range of risk behaviors during their transition from childhood to adulthood. Identifying and understanding interpersonal and socio-environmental factors that may influence risk-taking is imperative in order to meet the Healthy People 2020 goals of reducing the incidence of unintended pregnancies, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections among youth. The purpose of this study was to investigate gender differences in the predictors of HIV risk behaviors among South Florida youth. More specifically, this study examined how protective factors, risk factors, and health risk behaviors, derived from a guiding framework using the Theory of Problem Behavior and Theory of Gender and Power, were associated with HIV risk behavior. A secondary analysis of 2009 Youth Risk Behavior Survey data sets from Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach school districts tested hypotheses for factors associated with HIV risk behaviors. The sample consisted of 5,869 high school students (mean age 16.1 years), with 69% identifying as Black or Hispanic. Logistic regression analyses revealed gender differences in the predictors of HIV risk behavior. An increase in the health risk behaviors was related to an increase in the odds that a student would engage in HIV risk behavior. An increase in risk factors was also found to significantly predict an increase in the odds of HIV risk behavior, but only in females. Also, the probability of participation in HIV risk behavior increased with grade level. Post-hoc analyses identified recent sexual activity (past 3 months) as the strongest predictor of condom nonuse and having four or more sexual partners for both genders. The strongest predictors of having sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol were alcohol use in both genders, marijuana use in females, and physical fighting in males. Gender differences in the predictors of unprotected sex, multiple sexual partners, and having sex under the influence were also found. Additional studies are warranted to understand the gender differences in predictors of HIV risk behavior among youth in order to better inform prevention programming and policy, as well as meet the national Healthy People 2020 goals.

Concepts about risk management in libraries : Notes for characterization

El presente trabajo revisa la bibliografía sobre gestión del riesgo (GRi) que ha aparecido en los últimos tiempos, intentando anclar sus nociones, recomendaciones, pautas y estándares al ámbito de las bibliotecas y centros de documentación e información. Se analiza su utilidad, realizando un balance sobre la bibliografía consultada, proveniente tanto de Argentina como de distintos países. Se concluye sobre la necesidad de aplicar los procesos y los estándares inherentes a la GRi a los de las unidades de información para evitar los peligros o las amenazas en distintos ámbitos tales como el financiero, comunicacional, tecnológico, humano, ambiental, entre otros

Risk factors associated with negative in-vivo diagnostic results in bovine tuberculosis-infected cattle in Spain

BACKGROUND Despite great effort and investment incurred over decades to control bovine tuberculosis (bTB), it is still one of the most important zoonotic diseases in many areas of the world. Test-and-slaughter strategies, the basis of most bTB eradication programs carried out worldwide, have demonstrated its usefulness in the control of the disease. However, in certain countries, eradication has not been achieved due in part to limitations of currently available diagnostic tests. In this study, results of in-vivo and post-mortem diagnostic tests performed on 3,614 animals from 152 bTB-infected cattle herds (beef, dairy, and bullfighting) detected in 2007-2010 in the region of Castilla y León, Spain, were analyzed to identify factors associated with positive bacteriological results in cattle that were non-reactors to the single intradermal tuberculin test, to the interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) assay, or to both tests applied in parallel (Test negative/Culture + animals, T-/C+). The association of individual factors (age, productive type, and number of herd-tests performed since the disclosure of the outbreak) with the bacteriology outcome (positive/negative) was analyzed using a mixed multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS The proportion of non-reactors with a positive post-mortem result ranged from 24.3% in the case of the SIT test to 12.9% (IFN-γ with 0.05 threshold) and 11.9% (95% CI 9.9-11.4%) using both tests in parallel. Older (>4.5 years) and bullfighting cattle were associated with increased odds of confirmed bTB infection by bacteriology, whereas dairy cattle showed a significantly lower risk. Ancillary use of IFN-γ assay reduced the proportion of T-/C + animals in high risk groups. CONCLUSIONS These results demonstrate the likelihood of positive bacteriological results in non-reactor cattle is influenced by individual epidemiological factors of tested animals. Increased surveillance on non-reactors with an increased probability of being false negative could be helpful to avoid bTB persistence, particularly in chronically infected herds. These findings may aid in the development of effective strategies for eradication of bTB in Spain.

The legitimation of risk and Bt cotton: a case study of Bantala village in Warangal, Andhra Pradesh, India

This article explores Ulrich Beck’s theorisation of risk society through focusing on the way in which the risk of Bt cotton is legitimated by six cultivators in Bantala, a village in Warangal, Andhra Pradesh, in India. The fieldwork for this study was conducted between June 2010 and March 2011, a duration chosen to coincide with a cotton season. The study explores the experience of the cultivators using the ‘categories of legitimation’ defined by Van Leeuwen. These are authorisation, moral evaluation, rationalisation and mythopoesis. As well as permitting an exploration of the legitimation of Bt cotton by cultivators themselves within the high-risk context of the Indian agrarian crisis, the categories also serve as an analytical framework with which to structure a discourse analysis of participant perspectives. The study examines the complex trade-off, which Renn argues the legitimation of ambiguous risk, such as that associated with Bt technology, entails. The research explores the way in which legitimation of the technology is informed by wider normative conceptualisations of development. This highlights that, in a context where indebtedness is strongly linked to farmer suicides, the potential of Bt cotton for poverty alleviation is traded against the uncertainty associated with the technology’s risks, which include its purported links to animal deaths. The study highlights the way in which the wider legitimation of a neoliberal approach to development in Andhra Pradesh serves to reinforce the choice of Bt cotton, and results in a depoliticisation of risk in Bantala. The research indicates, however, that this trade-off is subject to change over time, as economic benefits wane and risks accumulate. It also highlights the need for caution in relation to the proposed extension of Bt technology to food crops, such as Bt brinjal (aubergine).

Risk definition and the struggle for legitimation: a case study of Bt cotton in Andhra Pradesh, India

This article explores the struggle for legitimation associated with the attempt to define the risk of Bt cotton, a genetically modified crop, in Andhra Pradesh, India. Beck asserts that, given the uncertainty associated with risk society, efforts to define risk are creating the need for a new political culture. This article argues that this political culture emerges from attempts to legitimate power within risk definition. This is examined using critical discourse analysis on interview excerpts with key figures in the Bt cotton debate. Legitimation is explored using the categories of legitimation developed by Van Leeuwen. These are (a) authorisation; (b) moral evaluation; (c) rationalisation; and (d) mythopoesis. The analysis highlights that the political culture which emerges in response to risk society is in a state of constant flux and contingent upon the ongoing struggle for legitimation with regard to the definition of risk.

Development of a patient-specific model for stroke risk assessment in atrial fibrillation patients

Atrial fibrillation is associated with a five-fold increase in the risk of cerebrovascular events,being responsible of 15-18% of all strokes.The morphological and functional remodelling of the left atrium caused by atrial fibrillation favours blood stasis and, consequently, stroke risk. In this context, several clinical studies suggest that stroke risk stratification could be improved by using haemodynamic information on the left atrium (LA) and the left atrial appendage (LAA). The goal of this study was to develop a personalized computational fluid-dynamics (CFD) model of the left atrium which could clarify the haemodynamic implications of atrial fibrillation on a patient specific basis. The developed CFD model was first applied to better understand the role of LAA in stroke risk. Infact, the interplay of the LAA geometric parameters such as LAA length, tortuosity, surface area and volume with the fluid-dynamics parameters and the effects of the LAA closure have not been investigated. Results demonstrated the capabilities of the CFD model to reproduce the real physiological behaviour of the blood flow dynamics inside the LA and the LAA. Finally, we determined that the fluid-dynamics parameters enhanced in this research project could be used as new quantitative indexes to describe the different types of AF and open new scenarios for the patient-specific stroke risk stratification.

Pedagogia do esporte : organização, sistematização, aplicação e avaliação de conteúdos esportivos na educação não formal = Sport pedagogy : organization, systematization and application of sports content in non-formal education

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

Incorporation of Real-Time PCR into Routine Public Health Surveillance of Culture Negative Bacterial Meningitis in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Real-time (RT)-PCR increases diagnostic yield for bacterial meningitis and is ideal for incorporation into routine surveillance in a developing country. We validated a multiplex RT-PCR assay for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae in Brazil. Risk factors for being culture-negative, RT-PCR positive were determined. The sensitivity of RT-PCR in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was 100% (95% confidence limits, 96.0%-100%) for N. meningitidis, 97.8% (85.5%-99.9%) for S. pneumoniae, and 66.7% (9.4%-99.2%) for H. influenzae. Specificity ranged from 98.9% to 100%. Addition of RT-PCR to routine microbiologic methods increased the yield for detection of S. pneumoniae, N. meningitidis, and H. influenzae cases by 52%, 85%, and 20%, respectively. The main risk factor for being culture negative and RT-PCR positive was presence of antibiotic in CSF (odds ratio 12.2, 95% CI 5.9-25.0). RT-PCR using CSF was highly sensitive and specific and substantially added to measures of meningitis disease burden when incorporated into routine public health surveillance in Brazil.

Alpha-tocopherol supplementation decreases electronegative low-density lipoprotein concentration [LDL(-)] in haemodialysis patients

Background. Oxidative stress is a significant contributor to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in haemodialysis (HD) patients, predisposing to the generation of oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL) or electronegatively charged LDL subfraction. Antioxidant therapy such as alpha-tocopherol acts as a scavenger of lipid peroxyl radicals attenuating the oxidative stress, which decreases the formation of oxLDL. The present study was designed to investigate the influence of the alpha-tocopherol supplementation on the concentration of electronegative low-density lipoprotein [LDL(-)], a minimally oxidized LDL, which we have previously described to be high in HD patients. Methods. Blood samples were collected before and after 120 days of supplementation by alpha-tocopherol (400 UI/day) in 19 stable HD patients (50 +/- 7.8 years; 9 males). The concentrations of LDL(-) in blood plasma [using an anti-LDL- human monoclonal antibody (mAb)] and the anti-LDL(-) IgG auto-antibodies were determined by ELISA. Calculation of body mass index (BMI) and measurements of waist circumference (WC), triceps skin folds (TSF) and arm muscle area (AMA) were performed. Results. The plasma alpha-tocopherol levels increased from 7.9 mu M (0.32-18.4) to 14.2 mu M (1.22-23.8) after the supplementation (P = 0.02). The mean concentration of LDL(-) was reduced from 570.9 mu g/mL (225.6-1241.0) to 169.1 mu g/mL (63.6-621.1) (P < 0.001). The anti-LDL(-) IgG auto-antibodies did not change significantly after the supplementation. The alpha-tocopherol supplementation also reduced the total cholesterol and LDL-C levels in these patients, from 176 +/- 42.3 mg/dL to 120 +/- 35.7 mg/dL (P < 0.05) and 115.5 +/- 21.4 mg/dL to 98.5 +/- 23.01 mg/dL (P < 0.001), respectively. Conclusion. The oral administration of alpha-tocopherol in HD patients resulted in a significant decrease in the LDL(-), total cholesterol and LDL-C levels. This effect may favour a reduction in cardiovascular risk in these patients, but a larger study is required to confirm an effect in this clinical setting.

Pedagogical work and the 'cult of the body': Considering the role of HPE in the context of the 'new public health'

Physical education, now often explicitly identified with health in contemporary school curricula, continues to be implicated in the (re)production of the 'cult of the body'. We argue that HPE is a form of health promotion that attempts to 'make' healthy citizens of young people in the context of the 'risk society'. In our view there is still work to be done in understanding how and why physical education (as HPE) continues to be implicated in the reproduction of values associated with the cult of body. We are keen to understand why HPE continues to be ineffective in helping young people gain some measure of analytic and embodied 'distance' from the problematic aspects of the cult of the body. This paper offers an analysis of this enduring issue by using some contemporary analytic discourses including 'governmentality', 'risk society' and the 'new public health'.

Urban and rural suicide differentials in migrants and the Australian-born, New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994

We estimated risk of suicide in adults in New South Wales (NSW) by sex, country of birth and rural/urban residence, after adjusting for age; we also examined youth suicide (age 15-24 years). The study population was the entire population of NSW, Australia, aged greater than or equal to 15 years during the period 1985-1994. Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between predictor variables and the risk of suicide, with the focus on migrant status and area of residence. A significantly higher risk of suicide was found in male migrants from Northern Europe and Eastern Europe/former USSR, compared to Australian-born males; a significantly lower suicide risk occurred in males from Southern Europe, the Middle East and Asia. In female migrants, those from UK/Eire, Northern Europe, Eastern Europe/former USSR and New Zealand exhibited a significantly higher risk of suicide compared to Australian-born females. A significantly lower risk of suicide occurred in females from the Middle East. Male migrants overall were at significantly lower risk of suicide than the Australian-born, while female migrants overall had a significantly higher risk of suicide than Australian-born females. Among migrant males overall, the rural-urban suicide risk differential was significantly higher for those living in non-metropolitan areas (RR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7-2.1). Suicide risk was significantly higher in non-metropolitan male immigrants from the UK/Eire (RR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), Southern Europe (RR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2-2.4), Northern/Western Europe (1.5; 95% CI: 1.2-1.9), the Middle East (RR = 3.8; 95% CI: 1.9-7.8), New :Zealand (RR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0-1.8) and 'other' (RR = 2.6; 95% CI: 1.9-3.5), when compared to their urban counterparts. There was no statistically significant difference in suicide risk between rural and urban Australian-born males. For female suicide, significantly lower risk was found in female immigrants living in non-metropolitan areas who were from Northern/Western Europe (RR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.4-0.96), as well as the Australian-born (RR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.6-0.8), when compared to their urban counterparts. The non-metropolitan/metropolitan relative risk for suicide in female migrants overall was not significantly different from one. Among male youth there was a significantly higher suicide risk in non-metropolitan areas, with a relative risk estimate of 1.4 for Australian-born youth (95% CI: 1.2-1.5) and 1.7 for migrant youth (95% CI: 1.2-2.4), when compared with metropolitan counterparts. We conclude that suicide among migrant males living in non-metropolitan areas accounts for most of the excess of male suicide in rural NSW, and the significantly lower risk of suicide for non-metropolitan Australian-born women does not apply to migrant women. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design of the multicenter Australian study of epidural anesthesia and analgesia in major surgery: The MASTER Trial

The Multicenter Australian Study of Epidural Anesthesia and Analgesia in Major Surgery (The MASTER Trial) was designed to evaluate the possible benefit of epidural block in improving outcome in high-risk patients. The trial began in 1995 and is scheduled to reach the planned sample size of 900 during 2001. This paper describes the trial design and presents data comparing 455 patients randomized in 21 institutions in Australia, Hong Kong, and Malaysia, with 237 patients from the same hospitals who were eligible but not randomized. Nine categories of high-risk patients were defined as entry criteria for the trial. Protocols for ethical review, informed consent, randomization, clinical anesthesia and analgesia, and perioperative management were determined following extensive consultation with anesthesiologists throughout Australia. Clinical and research information was collected in participating hospitals by research staff who may not have been blind to allocation. Decisions about the presence or absence of endpoints were made primarily by a computer algorithm, supplemented by blinded clinical experts. Without unblinding the trial, comparison of eligibility criteria and incidence of endpoints between randomized and nonrandomized patients showed only small differences. We conclude that there is no strong evidence of important demographic or clinical differences between randomized and nonrandomized patients eligible for the MASTER Trial. Thus, the trial results are likely to be broadly generalizable. Control Clin Trials 2000;21:244-256 (C) Elsevier Science Inc. 2000.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.