A clonal Plasmodium falciparum population in an isolated outbreak of malaria in the Republic of Cabo Verde

We present the first parasitological, molecular and longitudinal analysis of an isolated outbreak of malaria. This outbreak occurred on Santiago Island (Republic of Cabo Verde), a region where malaria is hypoendemic and controlled, and thus the population is considered non-immune. Blood samples were collected from the inhabitants over 1 month and during cross-sectional surveys in the following year. The presence and nature of the parasites was determined by PCR. Plasmodium falciparum was the only species detected. Genetic analysis revealed that the circulating parasites were genetically homogeneous, and probably clonal. Gametocytes were found throughout this period. Our data suggest that this represented a focal outbreak, resulting in the infection of at least 40% of the villagers with a clonal parasite line. Thus, P. falciparum infections can persist for at least 1 year in a substantial proportion (10%) of the hosts. Implications for malaria control and the interpretation of epidemiological data are discussed.

Health care provider choice in the case of patient-initiated contacts. An extended version of discrete choice of model demand

This paper analyzes the nature of health care provider choice inthe case of patient-initiated contacts, with special reference toa National Health Service setting, where monetary prices are zeroand general practitioners act as gatekeepers to publicly financedspecialized care. We focus our attention on the factors that mayexplain the continuously increasing use of hospital emergencyvisits as opposed to other provider alternatives. An extendedversion of a discrete choice model of demand for patient-initiatedcontacts is presented, allowing for individual and town residencesize differences in perceived quality (preferences) betweenalternative providers and including travel and waiting time asnon-monetary costs. Results of a nested multinomial logit model ofprovider choice are presented. Individual choice betweenalternatives considers, in a repeated nested structure, self-care,primary care, hospital and clinic emergency services. Welfareimplications and income effects are analyzed by computingcompensating variations, and by simulating the effects of userfees by levels of income. Results indicate that compensatingvariation per visit is higher than the direct marginal cost ofemergency visits, and consequently, emergency visits do not appearas an inefficient alternative even for non-urgent conditions.

Leaf-litter amount as a factor in the structure of a ponerine ants community (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Ponerinae) in an eastern Amazonian rainforest, Brazil

Leaf-litter amount as a factor in the structure of a ponerine ants community (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Ponerinae) in an eastern Amazonian rainforest, Brazil. Leaf-litter may be an important factor in structuring ponerine ant communities (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Ponerinae) in tropical rainforests. We specifically examined how leaf-litter affects the structure of a ponerine ant community in primary Amazonian rainforest sites at the Ferreira Penna Scientific Station, Pará, Brazil. A total of 53 species belonging to eight genera of three ponerine tribes were collected with mini-Winkler extractors. The amount of leaf-litter positively affected the abundance and richness of the ponerine ant community, and also influenced species composition. Nearby samples often had low species similarity, especially when adjacent samples differed in the amount of leaf-litter. Leaf-litter availability in Amazonian primary forests is a key factor for distribution of ground-dwelling ponerine species, even at small scales.

The importance of individual heterogeneity in the decomposition of measures of socioeconomic inequality in health: An approach based on quantile regression

This paper shows how recently developed regression-based methods for thedecomposition of health inequality can be extended to incorporateindividual heterogeneity in the responses of health to the explanatoryvariables. We illustrate our method with an application to the CanadianNPHS of 1994. Our strategy for the estimation of heterogeneous responsesis based on the quantile regression model. The results suggest that thereis an important degree of heterogeneity in the association of health toexplanatory variables which, in turn, accounts for a substantial percentageof inequality in observed health. A particularly interesting finding isthat the marginal response of health to income is zero for healthyindividuals but positive and significant for unhealthy individuals. Theheterogeneity in the income response reduces both overall health inequalityand income related health inequality.

Increased carotid intima-media thickness in the absence of atherosclerotic plaques in an adult population with Fabry disease.

AIM: Fabry disease is considered primarily as a progressive small vessel disease, with ischaemic degenerative lesions involving the kidneys, brain and heart. Macrovascular involvement in male patients includes an accelerated wall hypertrophy of the radial artery and a thickening of the intima-media of the common carotid artery. The aim of this study is to evaluate the prevalence and severity of carotid artery atherosclerosis in hemizygous and heterozygous patients with Fabry disease, compared with a matched control population. METHODS: The common carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) of 53 patients with Fabry disease (24 men, 29 women) was measured by high-definition ultrasonography, and the presence or absence of atherosclerotic plaques reported. Results were compared with those of 120 age-matched healthy individuals (83 men, 37 women). RESULTS: The common carotid artery IMT was increased to the same extent in male and female patients with Fabry disease (706+/-211 microm and 749+/-395 microm, respectively) compared with that of the control population (614+/-113 microm). In the Fabry population, IMT did not correlate with either systolic blood pressure or with renal function (plasma creatinine). In the control population, only systolic blood pressure was positively and significantly correlated with IMT. Atherosclerotic plaques in the common carotid artery were not observed in any patient with Fabry disease, whereas 34% of the control population had carotid artery plaques, as evidenced by focal non-homogeneous intima-media thickening greater than 1.2 mm. CONCLUSION: This study presents evidence of a major increase in common carotid artery IMT, both in hemizygous and heterozygous patients with Fabry disease, in the absence of focal atherosclerotic plaques. These results suggest that the conduit arteries may be protected from atherosclerosis in Fabry disease.

Biases of the ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimators of the intergenerational earnings elasticity : revisited in the light of panel data

The OLS estimator of the intergenerational earnings correlation is biased towards zero, while the instrumental variables estimator is biased upwards. The first of these results arises because of measurement error, while the latter rests on the presumption that the education of the parent family is an invalid instrument. We propose a panel data framework for quantifying the asymptotic biases of these estimators, as well as a mis-specification test for the IV estimator. [Author]

Were Spanish migrants attracted by industrial agglomerations?: an analysis for the interwar years in the light of the new economic geography

In this paper we examine whether access to markets had a significant influence onmigration choices of Spanish internal migrants in the inter-war years. We perform astructural contrast of a New Economic Geography model that focus on the forwardlinkage that links workers location choice with the geography of industrial production,one of the centripetal forces that drive agglomeration in the NEG models. The resultshighlight the presence of this forward linkage in the Spanish economy of the inter-warperiod. That is, we prove the existence of a direct relation between workers¿ localizationdecisions and the market potential of the host regions. In addition, the direct estimationof the values associated with key parameters in the NEG model allows us to simulatethe migratory flows derived from different scenarios of the relative size of regions andthe distances between them. We show that in Spain the power of attraction of theagglomerations grew as they increased in size, but the high elasticity estimated for themigration costs reduced the intensity of the migratory flows. This could help to explainthe apparently low intensity of internal migrations in Spain until its upsurge during the1920s. This also explains the geography of migrations in Spain during this period,which hardly affected the regions furthest from the large industrial agglomerations (i.e.,regions such as Andalusia, Estremadura and Castile-La Mancha) but had an intenseeffect on the provinces nearest to the principal centres of industrial development.

Changes in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics after withdrawal of cefepime from the market: an interrupted time series analysis

Background and objective: Cefepime was one of the most used broad-spectrum antibiotics in Swiss public acute care hospitals. The drug was withdrawn from market in January 2007, and then replaced by a generic since October 2007. The goal of the study was to evaluate changes in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics after the withdrawal of the cefepime original product. Design: A generalized regression-based interrupted time series model incorporating autocorrelated errors assessed how much the withdrawal changed the monthly use of other broad-spectrum antibiotics (ceftazidime, imipenem/cilastin, meropenem, piperacillin/ tazobactam) in defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days from January 2004 to December 2008 [1, 2]. Setting: 10 Swiss public acute care hospitals (7 with\200 beds, 3 with 200-500 beds). Nine hospitals (group A) had a shortage of cefepime and 1 hospital had no shortage thanks to importation of cefepime from abroad. Main outcome measures: Underlying trend of use before the withdrawal, and changes in the level and in the trend of use after the withdrawal. Results: Before the withdrawal, the average estimated underlying trend (coefficient b1) for cefepime was decreasing by -0.047 (95% CI -0.086, -0.009) DDD/100 bed-days per month and was significant in three hospitals (group A, P\0.01). Cefepime withdrawal was associated with a significant increase in level of use (b2) of piperacillin/tazobactam and imipenem/cilastin in, respectively, one and five hospitals from group A. After the withdrawal, the average estimated trend (b3) was greatest for piperacillin/tazobactam (+0.043 DDD/100 bed-days per month; 95% CI -0.001, 0.089) and was significant in four hospitals from group A (P\0.05). The hospital without drug shortage showed no significant change in the trend and the level of use. The hypothesis of seasonality was rejected in all hospitals. Conclusions: The decreased use of cefepime already observed before its withdrawal from the market could be explained by pre-existing difficulty in drug supply. The withdrawal of cefepime resulted in change in level for piperacillin/tazobactam and imipenem/cilastin. Moreover, an increase in trend was found for piperacillin/tazobactam thereafter. As these changes generally occur at the price of lower bacterial susceptibility, a manufacturers' commitment to avoid shortages in the supply of their products would be important. As perspectives, we will measure the impact of the changes in cost and sensitivity rates of these antibiotics.

An agency-oriented model to explain vine-growing specialization in the province of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) in the mid-nineteenth century

[cat] En aquest treball presentem un model per explicar el procés d’especialització vitícola assolit als municipis de la província de Barcelona, a mitjans del s. XIX,que cerca entendre com va sorgir històricament un avantatge comparatiu fruit d’un procés que esdevindria un dels punts de partida del procés d’industrialització a Catalunya. Els resultats confirmen els papers jugats pel impuls “Boserupià” de la població en un context d’intensificació de l’ús de la terra, i d’un impuls del mercat “Smithià” en un context d’expansió de la demanda per part de les economies atlàntiques. També es posa de manifest la importància de les dotacions agro-ecològiques i les condicions socioinstitucionals relacionades amb la desigualtat d’ingrés. La difusió de la vinya donà com a resultat unes comunitats rurals menys desiguals fins al 1820, tot i que aquesta desigualtat augmentà de nou a partir d'aleshores.

How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Decay of an unstable state in the presence of multiplicative noise

The phenomenon of anomalous fluctuations associated with the decay of an unstable state is analyzed in the presence of multiplicative noise. A theory is presented and compared with a numerical simulation. Our results allow us to distinguish the roles of additive and multiplicative noise in the nonlinear relaxation process. We suggest the use of experiments on transient dynamics to understand the effect of these two sources of noise in problems in which parametric noise is thought to be important, such as dye lasers.

Marches of the dragoons in the Mississippi Valley : an account of marches and activities of the First Regiment United States Dragoons in the Mississippi Valley between the years 1833 and 1850,1917.

Contains information of the marches and other activities of the First Regiment of the United States Dragoons between the years 1833 and 1850 with in the boundaries of the Iowa country. Written by Louis Pelzer.